A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Bloom has yet to be named GM.

 

The importance of the term "GM" is gone. The CBO is the man at the helm. If "GM' was still important, we'd have a Fire O'Halloran thread.

[dgalehouse]

Wrong! When CB took over, the Sox had just undergone one of the truly great nosedives in Sox history. DD, not CH, presided over that collapse in 2019--after the best season in Sox history in 2018. And he did it with much the same players, less Kimbrel (who stunk in the 2018 postseason), they had in 2018--Mookie, Beni, JDM, JBJ, Bogey, Devers, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, etc, etc.

 

The problem was the pitching collapsed in 2019.

 

CB inherited a mess as well as an irate owner who 1) did not want to get in a bidding war with the Dodgers and other clubs to retain Mookie (and later did the same with Bogey); 2) did not want to continue offering huge contracts to starters who don't deliver; 3) wanted to do things differently from what he had been doing, which basically was leading MLB in payroll and not getting into the postseason.

 

About #3 above. At the end of the movie Moneyball, the actor playing John Henry comments how little the A's paid per win in 2002 vs. how much the Yankees had paid--and promptly offered Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) the highest GM salary in sports to work the same magic in Boston.

 

We all know that in fact JH has spent plenty--actually, the fans have paid because the Sox always show a profit--on players, at least until recently.

 

So let's take a quick peek at the following scorecard.

 

The Mets, Yankees, and Padres have the three highest payrolls in MLB and all have losing records.

 

The Sox have the 15th highest payroll in MLB and have a winning record.

 

I am not at all saying Cora or Bloom is perfect. Far from it. But I am saying that John Henry--far more than Chaim Bloom--made the crucial decision to do more with less and that it's too soon to say it's the disaster you claim it is.

 

In fact, compared to the GM's (or Chief Baseball Officers) of the Mets, Yankees, and Padres, Chaim Bloom is the pick of the litter.

 

And this. Being ranked 15th in MLB payrolls is unprecedented for the Sox in the John Henry era and probably in the last 50 years.

 

Max, let's take a simple, no spin look at things. In 2019 the Sox had essentially the same team as they had in 2018, except for Kimbrel. Kimbrel had 42 saves in 2018. He left. They did nothing to replace him. Just tried to mix and match with what they had in house. It didn't work out. There were a ton of blown saves. They won 24 fewer games than in 2018. Now, what would Occam's razor say was the difference between the two teams? What was the problem?

[moonslav59]

The importance of the term "GM" is gone. The CBO is the man at the helm. If "GM' was still important, we'd have a Fire O'Halloran thread.

 

Of course, but we all know O'Halloran is Bloom Whisperer.

[moonslav59]

Max, let's take a simple, no spin look at things. In 2019 the Sox had essentially the same team as they had in 2018, except for Kimbrel. Kimbrel had 42 saves in 2018. He left. They did nothing to replace him. Just tried to mix and match with what they had in house. It didn't work out. There were a ton of blown saves. They won 24 fewer games than in 2018. Now, what would Occam's razor say was the difference between the two teams? What was the problem?

 

We stopped spending and failed to trade any prospects for help at the deadline- something Bloom and DD could not overcome.

[dgalehouse]

We stopped spending and failed to trade any prospects for help at the deadline- something Bloom and DD could not overcome.

 

Did you know that the Sox scored more runs in 2019 than they did in 2018? The deadline had nothing to do with it. The 2019 team blew a ton of leads all year.

[moonslav59]

Did you know that the Sox scored more runs in 2019 than they did in 2018? The deadline had nothing to do with it. The 2019 team blew a ton of leads all year.

 

How about trading for pen help at the deadline?

 

How is that different from no trades for SP'er this year?

 

The cuts in spending and resistance to trading more prospects for immediate help ended before DD left, and the effects showed on the 2019 team, just like it has with Bloom's teams.

 

I think that was at the root of the growing tension between DD and the top brass.

Edited August 31, 2023 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

I am just trying to explain to Maxie the reason for the " nosedive " in 2019. And the importance of a bullpen and a closer. Dombrowski was the G.M. at the time. He should have done something. But the team was still 10 games over .500 on the day he was unjustly and stupidly fired.

[Bellhorn04]

Did you know that the Sox scored more runs in 2019 than they did in 2018? The deadline had nothing to do with it. The 2019 team blew a ton of leads all year.

 

The starting pitching was much worse too, though.

[moonslav59]

I am just trying to explain to Maxie the reason for the " nosedive " in 2019. And the importance of a bullpen and a closer. Dombrowski was the G.M. at the time. He should have done something. But the team was still 10 games over .500 on the day he was unjustly and stupidly fired.

 

You think DD chose to do nothing?

 

He did not want to replace Kimbrell and Kelly that winter or at the deadline?

 

The choice was made from the top, and DD did not like the new direction.

 

It was the direction change that caused the drop and likely the fallout between DD and JH&Co, not DD's "failure to make moves."

 

You also said the deadline had nothing to do with it, then said we were 10 over when he was fired. It was actually 8, but that point highlights how important that deadline could have been had DD been allowed to trade more prospects for pen help, or even a SP'er.

 

BTW, the rotation was a mjaor reason for the drop off- not just the pen:

 

2018>2019

Pen: 3.72 ERA/587 IP> 4.40 ERA/665 IP

SP: 3.77 ERA/871 IP> 4.95ERA/806 IP

 

It's not as simple as just blaming the pen. The pen certainly sucked and blew way too many saves, but they were forced to pitch 80 more IP over 2018 and the ERA drop off was way worse for the rotation:

Raised ERA

+1.18 rotation

+0.68 Pen

 

 

[dgalehouse]

The starting pitching was much worse too, though.

 

The starting rotation looked very good on paper. But injuries and underperformance were a problem. However, the bullpen blew so many leads.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankees lose!

 

We're half a game further away from last place.

[dgalehouse]

You think DD chose to do nothing?

 

He did not want to replace Kimbrell and Kelly that winter or at the deadline?

 

The choice was made from the top, and DD did not like the new direction.

 

It was the direction change that caused the drop and likely the fallout between DD and JH&Co, not DD's "failure to make moves."

 

You also said the deadline had nothing to do with it, then said we were 10 over when he was fired. It was actually 8, but that point highlights how important that deadline could have been had DD been allowed to trade more prospects for pen help, or even a SP'er.

 

BTW, the rotation was a mjaor reason for the drop off- not just the pen:

 

2018>2019

Pen: 3.72 ERA/587 IP> 4.40 ERA/665 IP

SP: 3.77 ERA/871 IP> 4.95ERA/806 IP

 

It's not as simple as just blaming the pen. The pen certainly sucked and blew way too many saves, but they were forced to pitch 80 more IP over 2018 and the ERA drop off was way worse for the rotation:

Raised ERA

+1.18 rotation

+0.68 Pen

 

 

 

I well remember having this discussion in the winter of 2019. What I am saying now is what I said then. I think you were one of the ones saying the bullpen will be fine. Well, I was right all along , hard as it is for you to admit.

[moonslav59]

I well remember having this discussion in the winter of 2019. What I am saying now is what I said then. I think you were one of the ones saying the bullpen will be fine. Well, I was right all along , hard as it is for you to admit.

 

Admit what? You were wrong about the pen being the major reason we dropped off so much? Okay, I admit it.

 

I may have said the pen would be okay, and I'll apologize, taking your word for it that I did.

 

Can you explain why doing nothing at the deadline to fix the pen or rotation "did not matter at all?"

 

Can you admit you made a mistake saying that? Hard as it is for you to do so?

 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Henry fired DD because of the 2019 season. I think he just wanted to "go in another direction" as they often say when guys get fired. This time I think it was the truth. Plus there were stories about DD kind of walling himself off with his old buddies like LaRussa, and not communicating well.

 

The Red Sox have had a lot of success in the Henry years, with 4 titles, and yet we're on our 4th CBO. It does say something about Henry's style.

[Duran Is The Man]

How about trading for pen help at the deadline?

 

How is that different from no trades for SP'er this year?

 

The cuts in spending and resistance to trading more prospects for immediate help ended before DD left, and the effects showed on the 2019 team, just like it has with Bloom's teams.

 

I think that was at the root of the growing tension between DD and the top brass.

 

 

and there damn well should have been! after three straight AL East titles and a World Championship, his team has an off year and finishes a disappointing 3rd with 84 wins. after that, JH does what any sane mega-billionaire owner with a successful team does. he fired the sumbitch.

[Bellhorn04]

and there damn well should have been! after three straight AL East titles and a World Championship, his team has an off year and finishes a disappointing 3rd with 84 wins. after that, JH does what any sane mega-billionaire owner with a successful team does. he fired the sumbitch.

 

He's the firin' kind, man.

[moonslav59]

and there damn well should have been! after three straight AL East titles and a World Championship, his team has an off year and finishes a disappointing 3rd with 84 wins. after that, JH does what any sane mega-billionaire owner with a successful team does. he fired the sumbitch.

 

I do think we should have tried to keep "the window" open longer, but at some point we'd have to pay the piper, unless JH & Co decided to become Steve Cohen.

 

We can all pontificate about why he should have done so, but that does not change the fact that he moved in the opposite direction and both GMs paid the price.

[Maxbialystock]

Max, let's take a simple, no spin look at things. In 2019 the Sox had essentially the same team as they had in 2018, except for Kimbrel. Kimbrel had 42 saves in 2018. He left. They did nothing to replace him. Just tried to mix and match with what they had in house. It didn't work out. There were a ton of blown saves. They won 24 fewer games than in 2018. Now, what would Occam's razor say was the difference between the two teams? What was the problem?

 

Meh. I never liked Kimbrel, especially after he gave up all those runs in the 2018 postseason.

 

Plus I just took a peak at some 2018 and 2019 stats and noticed that the 2018 team had 85 quality starts and the 2019 team just 55.

 

I also don't trust blown saves because they can happen back in the 6th inning, well before THE GREAT CLOSER gets anywhere near the mound. For example, the 2021 Sox did pretty well in the 2021 postseason and literally did not have a closer. Their one "blown save" was Houck in the 6th inning against Houston.

 

I've just looked at the game by game schedule for the Sox for the entire 2d half of the 2019 season. I specifically looked at the 9th inning of close games and could not find a single one of those close games the Sox lost in which they gave up any freaking runs in the 9th innings.

 

Back to you.

 

P.S. Uehara was a fantastic closer in 2013 and worlds better than that phony Kimbrel with all those gestures.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I don't think Henry fired DD because of the 2019 season. I think he just wanted to "go in another direction" as they often say when guys get fired. This time I think it was the truth. Plus there were stories about DD kind of walling himself off with his old buddies like LaRussa, and not communicating well.

 

The Red Sox have had a lot of success in the Henry years, with 4 titles, and yet we're on our 4th CBO. It does say something about Henry's style.

 

I bet the main friction between DD and top brass was over their change in direction on spending and allowing major prospect trades in the winter of '18-'19 and the 2019 deadline.

 

I can't prove it, but to me, it msakes sense.

[dgalehouse]

Admit what? You were wrong about the pen being the major reason we dropped off so much? Okay, I admit it.

 

I may have said the pen would be okay, and I'll apologize, taking your word for it that I did.

 

Can you explain why doing nothing at the deadline to fix the pen or rotation "did not matter at all?"

 

Can you admit you made a mistake saying that? Hard as it is for you to do so?

 

 

I can't keep up with this. You are not making any sense. I said Dombrowski should have done something. You just want to get into an argument over it, like you always do. I was just replying to Max talking about the nosedive in 2019, and what caused it.

[dgalehouse]

Meh. I never liked Kimbrel, especially after he gave up all those runs in the 2018 postseason.

 

Plus I just took a peak at some 2018 and 2019 stats and noticed that the 2018 team had 85 quality starts and the 2019 team just 55.

 

I also don't trust blown saves because they can happen back in the 6th inning, well before THE GREAT CLOSER gets anywhere near the mound. For example, the 2021 Sox did pretty well in the 2021 postseason and literally did not have a closer. Their one "blown save" was Houck in the 6th inning against Houston.

 

I've just looked at the game by game schedule for the Sox for the entire 2d half of the 2019 season. I specifically looked at the 9th inning of close games and could not find a single one of those close games the Sox lost in which they gave up any freaking runs in the 9th innings.

 

Back to you.

 

P.S. Uehara was a fantastic closer in 2013 and worlds better than that phony Kimbrel with all those gestures.

 

Now , you are just being ridiculous. The reality of what happened in 2019 eludes you. I don't care who you like or don't like.

[Bellhorn04]

Meh. I never liked Kimbrel, especially after he gave up all those runs in the 2018 postseason.

 

Plus I just took a peak at some 2018 and 2019 stats and noticed that the 2018 team had 85 quality starts and the 2019 team just 55.

 

I also don't trust blown saves because they can happen back in the 6th inning, well before THE GREAT CLOSER gets anywhere near the mound. For example, the 2021 Sox did pretty well in the 2021 postseason and literally did not have a closer. Their one "blown save" was Houck in the 6th inning against Houston.

 

I've just looked at the game by game schedule for the Sox for the entire 2d half of the 2019 season. I specifically looked at the 9th inning of close games and could not find a single one of those close games the Sox lost in which they gave up any freaking runs in the 9th innings.

 

Back to you.

 

P.S. Uehara was a fantastic closer in 2013 and worlds better than that phony Kimbrel with all those gestures.

 

Kimbrel is 8th all-time in Saves. He's had a fine career. 2.42 ERA, .99 WHIP. He had a rough stretch in the 2018 postseason.

[moonslav59]

I can't keep up with this. You are not making any sense. I said Dombrowski should have done something. You just want to get into an argument over it, like you always do. I was just replying to Max talking about the nosedive in 2019, and what caused it.

 

You didn't make sense, when you said the 2019 deadline had "nothing to do" with the drop off. Did you say that, or not?

 

Did not getting pen help at the deadline make a difference?

 

If yes, why say it didn't matter?

 

Why is this so hard for you to comprehend?

 

Yes, the pen was a major reason for the drop off, as was the rotation. You blame DD for not making moves, and my point is that our GM's hands began to be tied after 2018, and it was not DD's nor Bloom's choice to not spend more.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is 8th all-time in Saves. He's had a fine career. 2.42 ERA, .99 WHIP. He had a rough stretch in the 2018 postseason.

 

It was no short strech, either. (July 21 to the end of the season)

4.79 ERA

 

5.91 in 10.2 IP in the '18 playoffs (9 games)

 

Apparently, bringing him back was DD's big mistake.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't keep up with this. You are not making any sense. I said Dombrowski should have done something. You just want to get into an argument over it, like you always do. I was just replying to Max talking about the nosedive in 2019, and what caused it.

 

Denny, you're obviously correct that the bullpen suffered from the loss of Kimbrel and Kelly and it resulted in lost games.

 

Folks just like to argue about baseball stuff because there are often counterarguments you can come up with.

[dgalehouse]

I said the bullpen would be a big problem in 2019. The bullpen did, in fact, become a big problem in 2019. That is all. That, along with a couple of injuries to the rotation was the cause for the team's decline from 2018. If you don't agree with that, fine. So be it.

[moonslav59]

The deadline had nothing to do with it.

 

You also said this...

[moonslav59]

I said the bullpen would be a big problem in 2019. The bullpen did, in fact, become a big problem in 2019. That is all. That, along with a couple of injuries to the rotation was the cause for the team's decline from 2018. If you don't agree with that, fine. So be it.

 

Who is disagreeing that the pen and rotation were the major reasons for the decline?

 

Why they weren't fixed gets to the root of the problem that has continued since the end of 2018, and it does not contradict the points you made and we all agree on.

 

You may think DD and Bloom have chosen to not spend or trade prospects to fix obvious problems, but one reasonable position is to think the directive came from those who write the checks.

 

[dgalehouse]

You also said this...

 

You brought up the deadline. I said the deadline had nothing to do with it. They were blowing leads all year.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't think Henry fired DD because of the 2019 season. I think he just wanted to "go in another direction" as they often say when guys get fired. This time I think it was the truth. Plus there were stories about DD kind of walling himself off with his old buddies like LaRussa, and not communicating well.

 

The Red Sox have had a lot of success in the Henry years, with 4 titles, and yet we're on our 4th CBO. It does say something about Henry's style.

 

It's true that JH doesn't mind changing CBO's--same goes for managers. But my take on DD is that in 2019 the Sox still had the highest payroll in MLB--but now he was going to have to spend a lot more money just to keep Mookie and replace Price and Sale while still paying their exorbitant salaries.