A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Did Verdugo get cut?

 

He was responding to my idea of trading Dugo, signing Duvall and moving Yoshida to DH and back up LF'er.

[Nick]

I'm not. If Dugo gets traded, this is my scheme:

 

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida 3rd string)

 

CF: Rafaela and Abreu (Duvall/Duran 3rd string)

 

RF: Duvall and Abreu (Refsnyder 3rd string)

 

We also have Rosier in AAA, next year.

 

We could play Yoshida LF, Duran CF and Duvall RF and not count on any rookies.

 

 

So we can quit bitching about our outfield defense? I'm good with that.

[moonslav59]

Yes I have seen Rafaela in Portland go, and get ‘em in the OF. Nobody knows how his bat will play in the big leagues, or Anreu, or Duran still for that matter.

 

My idea does not force any rookie to start.

[Bellhorn04]

It's unbelievable to me that Casas is not getting more 'love' on this board after the year he's had, especially considering his slow start.

 

As a first year player, Casas' OPS, now at .862 ranks second in AL by a wide margin. Third place is Nathan Lowe of Texas at .817. Only 3 players are above .800, Diaz of Rays leading the pact at .900.

 

He maybe another player in addition to Bello that Sox should consider locking up. I'd expect him to move up in the lineup next year for more RBI opportunities.

 

He has one more HR than what's his name from the Jays. He has the second most HR for that matter.

 

He's been tremendous with the bat after the slow start.

 

What's putting a damper on the lovefest is that so much attention has come to be paid to the Sox atrocious defense, and Casas has been part of that, which is a bit surprising because he was reported to be a good defender when he came up.

[moonslav59]

So we can quit bitching about our outfield defense? I'm good with that.

 

We'd still have 4 veteran OF'ers: Duvall, Yoshida, Duran and Refsnyder, but there would be ample opportunities for Rafaela and Abreu a chance to win more playing time or even win a full time position, if and only if they earn it..

[moonslav59]

He's been tremendous with the bat after the slow start.

 

What's putting a damper on the lovefest is that so much attention has come to be paid to the Sox atrocious defense, and Casas has been part of that, which is a bit surprising because he was reported to be a good defender when he came up.

 

It makes more sense to DH Yoshida with Casas getting some time there.

 

The idea of moving Devers to 1B and Casas to 1B may be premature, while also forcing Yoshida to play LF full time, except for days Raffy or Casas get rest. I guess he could DH when our 3Bman rests, too as Devers could play 3B on those days and Casas 1B, but that might be just 20-25 games total.

[Bellhorn04]

Is this a fair statement? Most teams, maybe all of them, don't like to make a young player a career DH.

 

More likely we'll read about Casas putting in a lot of extra work on his defense before next season.

[Nick]

OPS leaders (AL for Qualified Players)

 

.850 1st 3B Devers

.812 1st LF Yoshida

.862 2nd 1B Casas

.836 2nd DH Turner

.790 4th RF Verdugo

 

Story's career OPS of .840 would place him 2nd at very competitive SS position. We'll see.

 

Basically we're looking for help at 2B and CF (someone that can stay healthy would be nice).

 

Again looks to me like starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

[moonslav59]

OPS leaders (AL for Qualified Players)

 

.850 1st 3B Devers

.812 1st LF Yoshida

.862 2nd 1B Casas

.836 2nd DH Turner

.790 4th RF Verdugo

 

Story's career OPS of .840 would place him 2nd at very competitive SS position. We'll see.

 

Basically we're looking for help at 2B and CF (someone that can stay healthy would be nice).

 

Again looks to me like starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

 

We don't know where Duvall would be, had he qualified, but he'd be top of the list, too.

[Nick]

If we assume the development time is 4-5 years including for position players, and

following core players are locked up for 4+ years, Wong, Casas, Story, Devers, Yoshida, Duran along with Rafaela, Abreu among others.

 

Is it time to trade off some of our farm talent for starting pitching assuming we have 4-5 years of core, position players good enough to chase championships?

[Old Red]

So we can quit bitching about our outfield defense? I'm good with that.

 

The OF D hasn’t been great, but it’s the IF D that has hurt the team from Day 1.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Old Red

[Nick]

We don't know where Duvall would be, had he qualified, but he'd be top of the list, too.

 

Breaking a wrist seems like a freak accident. Really an unfortunate blow to Duvall and the team. I was not on his bandwagon but I've come around. He's a perfect fit for Fenway.

[Old Red]

We don't know where Duvall would be, had he qualified, but he'd be top of the list, too.

 

There are so many ways this team could go with this up coming off season. Even with the JT, Duvall, and Dugy situations. Like I posted the other day Bloom, and Dugy had a long conversation out on the field after a game the other day. Who knows what that was all about.

[a700hitter]

I don’t think you turn your back on 35+ bombs at a reasonable price. Turner could be kept too. He could split time between DH and spelling Casas and Devers. Neither will carry an exorbitant price tag.

[notin]

Is this a fair statement? Most teams, maybe all of them, don't like to make a young player a career DH.

 

More likely we'll read about Casas putting in a lot of extra work on his defense before next season.

 

 

No. It’s a sweeping generalization rooted in the belief that DH is nothing but a career extender for aging union ball players.

 

Shohei Ohtani has been a career DH. Yordan Alvarez as well. Other young hitters like Nolan Gorman have spent significant time in the role…

[Nick]

Untouchables? Top 10 Prospects per SoxProspects.

 

SS Marcel Mayer 20 ETA Late 2024 (move to 2B?)

CF Roman Anthony 19 ETA Late 2025

CF Miguel Bleis 19 ETA Late 2026

CF Rafaela 22 ETA 2024

CC Kyle Teel 21 ETA Mid 2025 (seems to be on a fast track)

2B Nick Yorke 21 Late 2024

SP Luis Perales 20 2026

SP Wikelman Gonzalez 21 Mid 2025

SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello 19 Late 2027

SS/2B Mickey Romero 19 2026

 

Not many pitchers on this list.

 

Breaking News: Both Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel has been promoted to AA Portland.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

OPS leaders (AL for Qualified Players)

 

.850 1st 3B Devers

.812 1st LF Yoshida

.862 2nd 1B Casas

.836 2nd DH Turner

.790 4th RF Verdugo

 

Story's career OPS of .840 would place him 2nd at very competitive SS position. We'll see.

 

Basically we're looking for help at 2B and CF (someone that can stay healthy would be nice).

 

Again looks to me like starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

 

285 + PAs (Duvall's PAs) Fangraphs numbers...

 

Catcher

18th Wong .708 (McGuire did not qualify would be at #T16 at .711

 

1B

7th Casas at .862

 

2B

none qualified (Reyes would be 18th at .748)

 

3B

1st Devers .850

 

SS

none qualified or came close

 

LF

7th Duran .828

8th Yoshida .813

 

CF

1st Duvall .927

9th Duran .828

 

RF

21st Dugo .790

 

DH

12th Turner .836

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

There are so many ways this team could go with this up coming off season. Even with the JT, Duvall, and Dugy situations. Like I posted the other day Bloom, and Dugy had a long conversation out on the field after a game the other day. Who knows what that was all about.

 

It probably wasn't about trading his ass.

[moonslav59]

The OF D hasn’t been great, but it’s the IF D that has hurt the team from Day 1.

 

We had the worst or near worst OAA at every infield position.

[notin]

I don’t think you turn your back on 35+ bombs at a reasonable price. Turner could be kept too. He could split time between DH and spelling Casas and Devers. Neither will carry an exorbitant price tag.

 

If the Sox want to improve defensively - and hopefully they do - they really should not bring back Turner and use the DH position for either Yoshida or Casas/Devers.

 

Yoshida does seem the likeliest fit. But even then the Sox (if Duvall returns) have a bit of an outfield logjam. Probably either a Verdugo or Duran will be dealt. Since Duvall is more than capable as a RF, it actually could be either one.

 

Now if Turner would accept a potential part time role, that’s one thing. But if he is looking for the full time role he does deserve, the Sox might not be the best fit . Or at least they shouldn’t be, assuming no roster overhauls this off-season…

[notin]

We had the worst or near worst OAA at every infield position.

 

Exactly.

 

And the one that has stabilized now is shortstop. The corners are the weaknesses now.

 

That’s why this team needs Chapman…

[moonslav59]

I don’t think you turn your back on 35+ bombs at a reasonable price. Turner could be kept too. He could split time between DH and spelling Casas and Devers. Neither will carry an exorbitant price tag.

 

If our winter spending budget is fixed, every penny you spend on DH and OF, is a penny less spent on the rotation.

 

I'd love to have Turner and Duvall back, but not at the expense of improving the rotation.

[Old Red]

If our winter spending budget is fixed, every penny you spend on DH and OF, is a penny less spent on the rotation.

 

I'd love to have Turner and Duvall back, but not at the expense of improving the rotation.

Bloom hasn’t shown yet that he’ll spend money on the rotation, so I’m not sure he will this coming off season either. I’m for bringing JT, and Duvall back, but I think it will take at least a 2 yr contract for both.

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

And the one that has stabilized now is shortstop. The corners are the weaknesses now.

 

That’s why this team needs Chapman…

 

Chapman is a better get than bringing back JT or Duvall.

 

I've been talking a lot about trading Dugo, but trading Duran, instead makes more sense for several reasons:

 

1. He's bring back more, especially as part of a package for a SP'er.

2. Dugo in RF makes our OF D stronger than Duran in LF or CF.

3. Yoshida playing LF vs RHPs instead of Duran is not a huge downgrade on D, and allows Casas to DH more often- maybe improving 1B defense.

 

With an addition of Chapman, trading Duran makes even more sense.

 

3B: Chapman (Devers)

1B: Devers (Casas)

DH: Casas (Yoshida)

LF: Yoshida-Refsnyder

CF: Duvall-Rafaela

RF: Dugo-Duvall (Abreu)

 

[Old Red]

Exactly.

 

And the one that has stabilized now is shortstop. The corners are the weaknesses now.

 

That’s why this team needs Chapman…

 

They are not spending anymore money in the short term on a 3B. They just locked one up for 10 years, and they already have a 1B. Like I said earlier all the moves you want to make aren’t going to be done, because 3 players would be better as a DH.

[Old Red]

Chapman is a better get than bringing back JT or Duvall.

 

I've been talking a lot about trading Dugo, but trading Duran, instead makes more sense for several reasons:

 

1. He's bring back more, especially as part of a package for a SP'er.

2. Dugo in RF makes our OF D stronger than Duran in LF or CF.

3. Yoshida playing LF vs RHPs instead of Duran is not a huge downgrade on D, and allows Casas to DH more often- maybe improving 1B defense.

 

With an addition of Chapman, trading Duran makes even more sense.

 

3B: Chapman (Devers)

1B: Devers (Casas)

DH: Casas (Yoshida)

LF: Yoshida-Refsnyder

CF: Duvall-Rafaela

RF: Dugo-Duvall (Abreu)

 

 

And what is Boras going to ask for Chapman? I just don’t see Bloom pulling the trigger on all these moves. It would be way out of his character.

[notin]

They are not spending anymore money in the short term on a 3B. They just locked one up for 10 years, and they already have a 1B. Like I said earlier all the moves you want to make aren’t going to be done, because 3 players would be better as a DH.

 

1. None of us have anticipated any moves beyond maybe signing Kluber.

 

2. Should they be done, is the question. Not will they be done. Only discussing moves the Sox will make is just playing a guessing game. It’s not your job to be there forum police and limit topics to do not approve of.

 

3. Last off-season I said the Sox should sign Joey Gallo. That would/should have meant an OF alignment of Verdugo-Hernandez-Gallo, which is most definitely in the running as the best defensive outfield in MLB. The Sox did not take my suggestion. So fill out here - do they put do they not have defensive issues?

[moonslav59]

And what is Boras going to ask for Chapman? I just don’t see Bloom pulling the trigger on all these moves. It would be way out of his character.

 

I'd put the odds of Bloom signing Chapman at greater than 1,000:1.

 

My hopes is over 90% of all money spent or prospects traded for are for starting pitchers.

[notin]

And what is Boras going to ask for Chapman? I just don’t see Bloom pulling the trigger on all these moves. It would be way out of his character.

 

If Chapman can be had for Story money, is it really out of character? Since, you know, we have Story.

 

 

In fact, Chapman profiles as a Bloom type signing. Since Matt is a metrics darling who doesn’t always post “back of the baseball card” numbers.

 

Will Bloom sign Chapman? Probably not. Of course this applies to every free agent from every GM. There are no locks. But Chapman really should be his primary position player target this off-season…

[notin]

I'd put the odds of Bloom signing Chapman at greater than 1,000:1.

 

My hopes is over 90% of all money spent or prospects traded for are for starting pitchers.

 

I agre on trading for starting pitchers. Free agent starters are quite often simply just bad investments. Relievers are the place to spend, on the other hand. But a bullpen upgrade or two!!