A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Trading Casas and Duran would be stupid. They can just buy pitching. They can sign a young guy long term, and a cheaper option like Montgomery or an older guy (not Kluber) to fill out their rotation without sacrificing their own offensive depth. The talk about trading Casas specifically is idiocy. He's cost controlled and can flat out hit. Stop.

 

What makes you think we will beat the long odds and actually sign a couple strong SP'er that end up being even decent signings?

 

It is a choice ripe with failures after failures.

 

Nobody wants to trade a guy like casas who could end up being the next Freeman or Olsen. Nobody.

 

But, to think signing FA aces is a good idea, then I could easily say, "STOP!"

 

I won't, of course, because we might need to do both to get a rotation worthy of playoff success.

 

I'd love to see us sign a top FA SP'er plus Yamamoto from Japan, and maybe make a lesser trade for anotehr serviceable SP'er without needing to trade Casas, Mayer, Anthony or Teel, but the chances of us striking gold on all 2-3 choices is close to zero.

 

The chance os trading for a solid pitcer that works out well is higher, despite the known loss of what you had to give up to get one.

 

It's eassier to sign a FA 1Bman (like JT) to replace Casas than it is to outbid someone for Nola and then see that signing work out well for us.

[Bellhorn04]

They could have signed Senga for $75 million. That's not big-time risky at all. That's just over half what they risked on Story. It's one-quarter what they risked on Raffy.

 

Enough of this ******** about the massive risk of free agent pitching. You don't have to sign Gerrit Cole. They're being stupidly timid.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They could have signed Senga for $75 million. That's not big-time risky at all. That's just over half what they risked on Story. It's one-quarter what they risked on Raffy.

 

Enough of this ******** about the massive risk of free agent pitching. You don't have to sign Gerrit Cole. They're being stupidly timid.

 

Deer in the dead red lights...

 

Cities shouldn't invest too much in police depts or fire engines, either... risky businesses

[moonslav59]

They could have signed Senga for $75 million. That's not big-time risky at all. That's just over half what they risked on Story. It's one-quarter what they risked on Raffy.

 

Enough of this ******** about the massive risk of free agent pitching. You don't have to sign Gerrit Cole. They're being stupidly timid.

 

I totally agree, but is the success rate on $75M all that much better than $100M+ signings?

 

True, you don't lose as much when they fail, but our plan proposed, here is to basically to get lucky with some FA signings.

 

Every year, we can go back and select a few signings that worked out very well, and say, "We just need to do that." Well, yes, but even the Senga and Eflin signings had risk. Not everyone here would have been happy with those signings, when they happened. It's the hindsight calls that are 100%.

 

Other SP'er signings near Senga money $75M/5:

 

$72M/4 T Walker

$68M/4 J Taillon

$63M/3 Bassitt

 

2022

$77M/5 ERod (opt out)

$71M/3 Stroman

$56M/4 Jon Gray

 

2021

None

$23M/3 Odorizi and TWalker

 

Who fits the Senga profile, this coming winter?

 

[dgalehouse]

Whether you acquire pitchers via free agency or via trade , the key is being able to evaluate talent. Given the fragile nature of pitching arms, it can be a tricky business.

[Bellhorn04]

I totally agree, but is the success rate on $75M all that much better than $100M+ signings?

 

True, you don't lose as much when they fail, but our plan proposed, here is to basically to get lucky with some FA signings.

 

What's the difference between getting lucky with starting pitcher signings and getting lucky with position player signings like Story and Yoshida?

 

We could use a thread on the free agent starter signings of the last 2 years and how they've worked out.

[moonslav59]

What's the difference between getting lucky with starting pitcher signings and getting lucky with position player signings like Story and Yoshida?

 

We could use a thread on the free agent starter signings of the last 2 years and how they've worked out.

 

Story and Yoshida do not cost what Nola will cost, for one, but I do think the risk on signing the very best SP'ers is higher. One could point to Judge and argue it's not much different, although he was not a FA signing.

[cp176]

Whether you acquire pitchers via free agency or via trade , the key is being able to evaluate talent. Given the fragile nature of pitching arms, it can be a tricky business.

 

Not only pitchers but players in general. I'm assuming that due diligence is done when scouting or developing anyone. We've waited for Devers, who I'm still glad we have, to become a decent third baseman. So far - not so good. The Story signing really didn't make much sense. I didn't scout Yoshida but I'm just guessing that someone must have known about his fielding and base running weaknesses. And I don't think you build a team filled with dh's. If you don't field so good, and you don't have much in the way of starting pitching, you might do whatever it takes to problem solve those needs. It would be wonderful if we could keep all of our slow non fielding big hitters, but no field and no pitch = no win.

[Bellhorn04]

Story and Yoshida do not cost what Nola will cost, for one, but I do think the risk on signing the very best SP'ers is higher. One could point to Judge and argue it's not much different, although he was not a FA signing.

 

Yes, it's higher the higher the contract. What I don't get is not being willing to pay what it takes to sign a guy like Senga or Eflin. The results are evident. Our starting pitching was a house of cards from the start and now the house has collapsed. The need to reinforce it was so great that I think Bloom is guilty of malfeasance. Now we've got Cora trying to save guys careers by not burning them out, and the Bear Claw Game.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's higher the higher the contract. What I don't get is not being willing to pay what it takes to sign a guy like Senga or Eflin. The results are evident. Our starting pitching was a house of cards from the start and now the house has collapsed. The need to reinforce it was so great that I think Bloom is guilty of malfeasance. Now we've got Cora trying to save guys careers by not burning them out, and the Bear Claw Game.

 

I was all for signing Senga and did not think $75M/5 was too much.

 

I admit, I did not know much about Eflin and wasn't upset we missed out on him, at the time.

 

We did offer Nate a QO, and apparently more than what he ended up signing for.

 

I remember wondering what we saw in Seth Lugo, and other name mentioned before we signed Kluber.

 

It looks like any of the other 4 would have been much better than what we ended up getting.

 

Bad luck?

 

Bad GM?

 

In reality, we should have signed 2-3 from those 5, and of one was Kluber, we'd have still been better off.

[dgalehouse]

Not only pitchers but players in general. I'm assuming that due diligence is done when scouting or developing anyone. We've waited for Devers, who I'm still glad we have, to become a decent third baseman. So far - not so good. The Story signing really didn't make much sense. I didn't scout Yoshida but I'm just guessing that someone must have known about his fielding and base running weaknesses. And I don't think you build a team filled with dh's. If you don't field so good, and you don't have much in the way of starting pitching, you might do whatever it takes to problem solve those needs. It would be wonderful if we could keep all of our slow non fielding big hitters, but no field and no pitch = no win.

 

It seems to me that pitchers with a more compact delivery, who can generate power from the lower body, have a better chance to avoid arm problems. I don't have any data to support that, it's just from my somewhat limited observation.

[Hugh2]

It seems to me that pitchers with a more compact delivery, who can generate power from the lower body, have a better chance to avoid arm problems. I don't have any data to support that, it's just from my somewhat limited observation.

 

I’m not sure where you would find it nor do I care to put in the research but everything I’ve ever heard, and scouting report I’ve ever read seems to support this notion. As if it’s cannon.

 

Guys who throw arm heavy, sustain more shoulder and elbow problems. Seems logical too

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If and when the Red Sox invest more in starting pitchers, the obvious key has to be to go more for swing-and-miss stuff than pitch-to-contact guys.

 

We keep going round and round about how stuck we are with some bad fielders -- like Devers and Yoshida -- or budding core guys like Casas and Duran (who may be swapped out for Rafaela).

 

Isn't the quickest solution, then, to just spend a little bit more on strikeout pitchers who are more apt to minimize the below-average support behind them? Are power arms at higher risk for elbow blow-out than junk-ballers snapping off more breaking pitches? Or are rotator cuff injuries more common these days than TJS?

(it doesn't seem so...)

 

Maybe this concept is why Bloom felt he just had to protect Ort over more finesse hurlers last winter...

[moonslav59]

If and when the Red Sox invest more in starting pitchers, the obvious key has to be to go more for swing-and-miss stuff than pitch-to-contact guys.

 

We keep going round and round about how stuck we are with some bad fielders -- like Devers and Yoshida -- or budding core guys like Casas and Duran (who may be swapped out for Rafaela).

 

Isn't the quickest solution, then, to just spend a little bit more on strikeout pitchers who are more apt to minimize the below-average support behind them? Are power arms at higher risk for elbow blow-out than junk-ballers snapping off more breaking pitches? Or are rotator cuff injuries more common these days than TJS?

(it doesn't seem so...)

 

Maybe this concept is why Bloom felt he just had to protect Ort over more finesse hurlers last winter...

 

It's hard for a scientist to figure this stuff out, let alone a lowly-minded profession like MLB GMs.

[moonslav59]

Who would be on the "short list" of maybe 5-6 top SP'ers where we hope to add 2, but might be lucky to add one, this coming winter?

 

My guess is, most lists will have just 1-2 common names- maybe 3.

 

It's not so easy to project who the best will be, then it's sort of like roulette on choosing the right one or two. Then, the player needs to want to play for you, and you have to offer a competitive offer, if not the most.

[moonslav59]

Who would be on the "short list" of maybe 5-6 top SP'ers where we hope to add 2, but might be lucky to add one, this coming winter?

 

My guess is, most lists will have just 1-2 common names- maybe 3.

 

It's not so easy to project who the best will be, then it's sort of like roulette on choosing the right one or two. Then, the player needs to want to play for you, and you have to offer a competitive offer, if not the most.

 

My list (not in any order)

 

Ohtani (not someone we will sign

Nola

Yamamoto

Snell

Urias (due to his age)

 

Second Tier:

Sonny Gray 33

Kershaw 35

Montgomery 30

Giolito 29

Flaherty 27

.

[Duran Is The Man]

... Edited September 2, 2023 by ****THEYANKEES

[notin]

My list (not in any order)

 

Ohtani (not someone we will sign

Nola

Yamamoto

Snell

Urias (due to his age)

 

Second Tier:

Sonny Gray 33

Kershaw 35

Montgomery 30

Giolito 29

Flaherty 27

.

 

I’d be ok with Nola if he’d the a Taillon contract. But if he wants to be paid like Rodon (or even Edwin Diaz), hard pass. He’s a league-average pitcher…

[moonslav59]

I’d be ok with Nola if he’d the a Taillon contract. But if he wants to be paid like Rodon (or even Edwin Diaz), hard pass. He’s a league-average pitcher…

 

Who is your top 5 or 6.

 

We are already seeing some wild disagreements on the top ones.

[notin]

Who is your top 5 or 6.

 

We are already seeing some wild disagreements on the top ones.

 

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto, except that the Sox won’t outbid the pack for him.

 

Ohtani won’t be worth it.

 

 

The best 3 pitchers I know about are Urias, Sonny Gray and Snell. Nola isn’t as good as people think. And Gray is better than people think.

 

Nola and Giolito are league-average pitchers. You insult Sonny Gray by putting him equal to one and below the other…

Edited September 3, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto, except that the Sox won’t outbid the pack for him.

 

Ohtani won’t be worth it.

 

 

The best 3 pitchers I know about are Urias, Sonny Gray and Snell. Nola isn’t as good as people think. And Gray is better than people think.

 

Nola and Giolito are league-average pitchers. You insult Sonny Gray by putting him equal to one and below the other…

 

I did this to prove how none of us will agree on who belongs in te top 5-6, yet we bash GMs for choosing wrongly.

 

Insulting Gray? Yes, I did, but you insult Nola.

 

Top fWAR since 2018:

4. Nola 24.7

13. Gray 17.1

15. Snell 16.5

24. Giolito 14.7

28. ERod 13.4

29. Stroman 13.2

28. Urias 12.4

44. Ohtani 11.8

49. Montgomery 10.9

54. Flaherty 10.2

 

2020-2023

4. Nola 15.8

16. Gray 11.1

17. Kershaw 11.0

21. Urias 10.8

22. Ohtani 10.7 (pitching only)

24. Montgomery 10.4

29. Giolito 9.5

33. Snell 9.0

42. Stroman 8.0

45. ERod 7.6

 

2022-2023

4. Nola 9.4

10. Ohtani 7.9

15. Gray 6.9

23. Snell 6.3

25. Montgomery 6.2

26. Kershaw 6.2

44. Stroman 4.6

46. Urias 4.5 (Like I said, I placed him in my top 5 dues to his age.)

 

 

[notin]

I did this to prove how none of us will agree on who belongs in te top 5-6, yet we bash GMs for choosing wrongly.

 

Insulting Gray? Yes, I did, but you insult Nola.

 

Top fWAR since 2018:

4. Nola 24.7

13. Gray 17.1

15. Snell 16.5

24. Giolito 14.7

28. ERod 13.4

29. Stroman 13.2

28. Urias 12.4

44. Ohtani 11.8

49. Montgomery 10.9

54. Flaherty 10.2

 

2020-2023

4. Nola 15.8

16. Gray 11.1

17. Kershaw 11.0

21. Urias 10.8

22. Ohtani 10.7 (pitching only)

24. Montgomery 10.4

29. Giolito 9.5

33. Snell 9.0

42. Stroman 8.0

45. ERod 7.6

 

2022-2023

4. Nola 9.4

10. Ohtani 7.9

15. Gray 6.9

23. Snell 6.3

25. Montgomery 6.2

26. Kershaw 6.2

44. Stroman 4.6

46. Urias 4.5 (Like I said, I placed him in my top 5 dues to his age.)

 

 

 

 

Nola has a ERA+ of 103 over the past 3 years. Gray has an ERA+ of 129 in that same time frame.

 

2018 is going back too far.

 

Of course I don’t think the Sox should sign any of them. Free agency is simply overpaying players in their 30s for things they accomplished in their 20s for another team. It rarely works out for anyone but the player’s agent…

[moonslav59]

Nola has a ERA+ of 103 over the past 3 years. Gray has an ERA+ of 129 in that same time frame.

 

2018 is going back too far.

 

Of course I don’t think the Sox should sign any of them. Free agency is simply overpaying players in their 30s for things they accomplished in their 20s for another team. It rarely works out for anyone but the player’s agent…

 

I thought you respected fWAR more than I do.

 

Urias is not even close to 30.

 

ERA- is more kind to Nola, but yes, Gray has been much better. (I should add him to my top 5.)

 

ERA- 2022 to 2023

58 Kershaw 1

60 Verldnader 3

64 Ohtani 5th

12 Gray 74

17 Snell 75

18 Wacha 75

21 Urias 76

38 Montgomery 83

42 ERod 86

48 Nola 88

49 Stroman 88

50 Eflin 88

51 Braxton 89

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Watched Nola closely on Fox TV last night. Good curve, but eventually got crushed by Milwaukee, last in the NL in team OPS.

 

If Nola was really worth it, does anyone think Dombrowski, with full bankroll support of Philly owners, would let Bloom outbid him for Nola?

 

But if Dombro allows Nola to leave, isn't that the ultimate buyer beware? (like holding a suspected witch underwater; if she drowns, then she isn't a witch)

[Hugh2]

Philly has exceeded the luxury tax two years in a row. It’s very likely they won’t be bidding on Nola

[Bellhorn04]

Nola has a ERA+ of 103 over the past 3 years. Gray has an ERA+ of 129 in that same time frame.

 

2018 is going back too far.

 

Of course I don’t think the Sox should sign any of them. Free agency is simply overpaying players in their 30s for things they accomplished in their 20s for another team. It rarely works out for anyone but the player’s agent…

 

Wow, what a free agency denier LOL.

 

Yes, we know it often turns out badly, but "rarely works out" is just wrong, and you could look it up.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Philly has exceeded the luxury tax two years in a row. It’s very likely they won’t be bidding on Nola

 

Hard to say. Their owner seems like he wants to have fun.

 

The much-esteemed Dodgers front office is going over the threshold for the third year in a row in 2023.

[Hugh2]

Hard to say. Their owner seems like he wants to have fun.

 

The much-esteemed Dodgers front office is going over the threshold for the third year in a row in 2023.

 

Maybe, but so far only Steve Chohen has dared to stay above that limit. Philly may have to reduce payroll if they want to reset.

 

Dodgers also would have reset this year if it wasn’t for Bauer.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but so far only Steve Chohen has dared to stay above that limit. Philly may have to reduce payroll if they want to reset.

 

Dodgers also would have reset this year if it wasn’t for Bauer.

 

Padres are over for the third year in a row this year.

 

I'm not saying it's a brilliant strategy, but the thinking of some teams has obviously changed about the 3 years in a row thing. It's not an automatic. It's a choice.

[Hugh2]

Padres are over for the third year in a row this year.

 

I'm not saying it's a brilliant strategy, but the thinking of some teams has obviously changed about the 3 years in a row thing. It's not an automatic. It's a choice.

 

The penalties, that get very steep after 2-3 consecutive years over seem to be heavily influencing teams decisions. I can see a franchise like SD that thinks they have a legit chance of getting a World Series taking that swing. But I doubt they will set themselves up to live over like Cohen has done with the Mets.

 

Paying 100% tax and losing your picks will destroy a franchise, probably won’t hurt much one year.

 

It’s like smoking crack. Not a great decision, but you’ll get high and have a good time. Now go do it every day and watch it ruin your life.