A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

Suddenly, this looks hopeful:

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Eovaldi

SP3 ERod

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Houck

 

RP1 Barnes

RP2 Ottavino

RP3 Taylor

RP4 Whitlock

RP5 Richards

RP6 Sawamura/ DHern (IL)

RP7 Valdez/ Brasier (IL)

RP8 Perez/Rios (Davis) 13th and 14th pitchers

 

1. Kike CF/2B

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Schwarber 1B

6. Renfroe RF

7. Verdugo LF

8. Vaz/Plawecki C

9. Arroyo 2B/Duran CF

 

Bench:

Plawecki or Vaz

Arroyo or Duran

Dalbec

Cordero (if 13 pitchers)

Arauz/Wong/Munoz (if 12 pitchers)

[oldtimer]

How about that?

 

Bobby Dee back over .700!

 

Kike up to .790.

 

Plawecki .775.

 

Have we found our new long man? (Richards)

 

Nice game, tonight.

 

12 Ks

1 BB

7 H

1 ER

 

Welcome back Pivetta (4.20 ERA, now.)

 

Dalbec was the star last night. Schwaber showed good plate discipline as he shakes off some rust.

[oldtimer]

I seriously doubt Cordero's name even comes up in discussing any DFA's.

 

He has options left and is hanging onto some promise going forward.

 

Cordero is showing very little promise. Get him off the 40 man ASAP.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec .703

Carlos Santana .707

 

The team's patience with Dalbec may yet pay off hugely.

[Hugh2]

Dalbec .703

Carlos Santana .707

 

The team's patience with Dalbec may yet pay off hugely.

 

But this has been Dalbec all season, you can actually look at his game logs and see the pattern. Goes on a tear for 1-2 weeks then disappears for 3-4.

 

His defense has been subpar too.

 

Last night was slightly different because for the first time all year he looked good vs RHP.

[Bellhorn04]

But this has been Dalbec all season, you can actually look at his game logs and see the pattern. Goes on a tear for 1-2 weeks then disappears for 3-4.

 

His defense has been subpar too.

 

Last night was slightly different because for the first time all year he looked good vs RHP.

 

And he's .004 OPS lower than Santana, a guy many wanted to trade for to replace him. Obviously Santana has had some ups and downs too.

[Bellhorn04]

Santana OPS by month:

 

Apr 869

May 783

Jun 662

Jul 675

Aug 347

 

Thank you Chaim...

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec has played in 118 major league games.

 

.757 OPS

101 OPS+

20 HR

65 RBI

[moonslav59]

Cordero is showing very little promise. Get him off the 40 man ASAP.

 

He may end up being a 40 man casualty when Rule 5 comes around, but I seriously doubt it.

 

There are more players with less promise than his, but some are younger, so who knows.

 

I'd give him another long look, or two, but there just may never be an opportunity like that with a winning team.

[notin]

Santana OPS by month:

 

Apr 869

May 783

Jun 662

Jul 675

Aug 347

 

Thank you Chaim...

 

Santana hasn’t played at all in August

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has played in 118 major league games.

 

.757 OPS

101 OPS+

20 HR

65 RBI

 

He's barely near the 2/3 mark of a 650 PA season.

 

New players need time to adjust and more time to adjust to the adjustments pitchers made to them.

 

Sometimes, that takes time, and sometimes too much time is needed to find out it won't work.

 

It's been extremely frustrating watching Dalbec (and Cordero) struggle, this season. I'm still hopeful but more cautious than ever.

[moonslav59]

But this has been Dalbec all season, you can actually look at his game logs and see the pattern. Goes on a tear for 1-2 weeks then disappears for 3-4.

 

His defense has been subpar too.

 

Last night was slightly different because for the first time all year he looked good vs RHP.

 

Do you think his whole career will be like his first 416 PAs?

 

His, D, too?

 

He was actually a decent 3Bman and has seemed to be making more and more good plays at 1B as the season progressed.

 

Maybe he can make or has already made the key adjustments. Only time will tell, and when you're on a contending team, sometimes time is not on your side.

 

Bloom and Cora have been extremely patient with Dalbec, Corder, Marwin and even Santana. Maybe they go oh for 4 on these guys.

 

I, for one, think they overplayed Marwin. I'm done with Santana, too, but I think he deserved a long look, and am not upset about how long a look he was given, as long as he doesn't get another one with us.

 

Cordero is the tougher call.

 

Bobby clearly will get a longer look sometime and somewhere.

[notin]

He may end up being a 40 man casualty when Rule 5 comes around, but I seriously doubt it.

 

There are more players with less promise than his, but some are younger, so who knows.

 

I'd give him another long look, or two, but there just may never be an opportunity like that with a winning team.

 

Cordero might be a career 4th outfielder, but I still doubt they DFA him after 135 PA…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cordero might be a career 4th outfielder, but I still doubt they DFA him after 135 PA…

 

...not if he has options remaining. But the guy is going to be 27 in a few weeks. He's played parts of the last half decade in the bigs, with a negative WAR for his career.

 

Does that mean if the union goes on strike and the owners have to hire amateurs to field a team, that Franchy is worth less than the replacement players?

[Bellhorn04]

Santana hasn’t played at all in August

 

Carlos Santana.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec isn’t athletic enough to play 3b well anymore. He’s gotten too stiff.

[mvp 78]

His numbers are still greatly skewed by 2020.

[moonslav59]

His numbers are still greatly skewed by 2020.

 

When the sample size is 416 PAs, almost every player's numbers are skewed by just a few games or one long stretch.

 

His numbers are also skewed by just last night.

[moonslav59]

...not if he has options remaining. But the guy is going to be 27 in a few weeks. He's played parts of the last half decade in the bigs, with a negative WAR for his career.

 

Does that mean if the union goes on strike and the owners have to hire amateurs to field a team, that Franchy is worth less than the replacement players?

 

He has been worth less than replacement level NOT "is" or "will be."

[Kimmi]

Hmmm, sounds a little like the clutch/choke thing to me. Purely intangible, anecdotal and unprovable, but accepted as real.

 

Of course. There are a lot of intangible things that I accept as real. As soon as someone shows me some overwhelming evidence against my opinion, I will rethink it.

 

I 100% used to believe in the concept of clutch players, as well as many other intangible things. I can't go against the numbers though.

[Kimmi]

I posted the same in the clutch thread.

 

I am open minded enough to change my opinion on something that I have believed in my entire life if the data shows me that I was wrong.

[Kimmi]

7+ INNINGS BY STARTERS

 

7.0 4/07 Eovaldi vs TB

7.0 4/25 E Rod vs SEA

7.0 4/27 Richards vs NYM

7.0 5/08 Richards vs BAL

7.2 6/03 PereZ vs HOU

7.2 6/28 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 7/01 Eovaldi vs KC

7.0 7/04 Pivetta vs OAK

7.2 7/24 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 8/11 Eovaldi vs TB

 

10 Games Total

 

Anyone know how to get this for other AL teams? I had to go pitcher by pitcher for Sox. It's crazy to think no one has gone 8 innings. Are hitters more patient, driving up the pitch count?

 

The league average for IP/GS is 5.1. The Red Sox average is 5.1. Again, this is not just a Red Sox problem. This is a baseball-wide trend.

[Kimmi]

Yes he is. Dodgers went all in for sure.

 

Personally I'm rather tickled they're 5 games behind the Giants.

 

The Dodgers may or may not end up winning it all again. But this is the exact reason why teams should not go all in to such an extreme extent. There are no guarantees.

[moonslav59]

I am open minded enough to change my opinion on something that I have believed in my entire life if the data shows me that I was wrong.

 

The data shows most Sox pitchers do way better without Vaz as their catcher- some by a very wide margin.

 

CERA/OPSAgainst (PAs against)

 

About 2 runs with Sale...

Sale

2.51/.622 AJ P (226)

2.79/.578 Leon (436)

4.61/.762 Vaz (84)

(No catcher on the CWS had a CERA worse than 3.53)

 

Not much difference with ERod but still 1/4 to a half run.

ERod

3.78/.778 Hanigan (50)

4.05/.700 Leon (118)

4.23/.723 Vaz (566)

4.44/.692 Swihart (75)

 

About 0.80 with Porcello

Porcello

4.19/.728 Leon (576)

4.93/.800 Swihart (122)

4.96/.794 Vaz (211)

5.38/.831 Holaday (55)

(Nobody on Detroit with over 30 IP w Porcello had a worse CERA than 4.43)

 

One and a half with Price...

Price

2.96/.647 Leon (204)

4.27/.738 Vaz (360)

(All other catchers with 30+ IP with Price had a CERA better than Vaz's. One guy, Gregg Zaun with only 43 IP had one close at 4.19. Everyone with more than 100 IP had a CERA or 3.61 or better.)

 

Vaz has been slightly better with Eovaldi than Leon, but Leon only had 44 PAs with him. (Vaz>Salty is not surprising)

Eovaldi

2.66/.419 Wong (20)

3.54/.657 Plawecki (69)

4.30/.765 Vaz (147)

4.53/.735 Leon (44)

4.85/.421 Salty (124)

 

A run and a half or more with Buch...

Buccholz

2.83/.642 VMart (241)

3.01/.646 Leon (155)

3.79/.629 Lava (36)

3.95/.737 Salty (207)

4.44/.705 Vaz (130)

4.68/.683 D Ross (73)

5.12/.801 VTek (118)

5.63/.836 AJ P (62)

Others: Alex Avila 1.55/.587 in 52 IP

 

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers may or may not end up winning it all again. But this is the exact reason why teams should not go all in to such an extreme extent. There are no guarantees.

 

The difference seems to be, their owner is not concerned with paying big and then paying big taxes on top of big salaries, AND they have an enormous revenue stream just from their TV deal, alone.

[a700hitter]

Pivetta now has a full 80 points of breathing room under 700hitter's 5.00 ERA bar.

It’s not my bar. LOL! It is the bar set by his career stats. His performance has exceeded my expectations. He was headed to palooka-ville when he was with the Phillies.

[jad]

The difference seems to be, their owner is not concerned with paying big and then paying big taxes on top of big salaries, AND they have an enormous revenue stream just from their TV deal, alone.

 

They have been making 60-90mil/year, until last year, when they claim to have lost $116mil. Given that the value of their franchise has grown 1.6billion in the last decade, I'm not going to agree with Kimmi that "teams should not go all in to such an extreme extent." Why not?

[moonslav59]

They have been making 60-90mil/year, until last year, when they claim to have lost $116mil. Given that the value of their franchise has grown 1.6billion in the last decade, I'm not going to agree with Kimmi that "teams should not go all in to such an extreme extent." Why not?

 

It's up to the owners- not us.

 

Most very wealthy people got to be wealthy by pinching pennies and cutting costs and corners. Why should baseball owners fork over profits for our enjoyment, unless it makes them more money along the way?

 

Yes, the value of the franchises is the hidden (well, not so hidden by many of us) profit maker when the owner sells, but most of these guys are in this to make more and more money. If winning helps them do that, then it becomes part of their plan.

 

If they can make more money without winning, or by staying "just competitive enough," that's what many owners will choose to do.

 

It's the American way.

[Kimmi]

The data shows most Sox pitchers do way better without Vaz as their catcher- some by a very wide margin.

 

I have always been a Vaz fan for what he does behind the plate. It may be that Vaz is not as good as what I thought he was.

[Kimmi]

The difference seems to be, their owner is not concerned with paying big and then paying big taxes on top of big salaries, AND they have an enormous revenue stream just from their TV deal, alone.

 

They are not concerned with paying big for a few years. Even they will hit their reset before too long.