A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

k%

AUG 20 75

SEP 20 39

APR 21 35

MAY 21 37

JUNE 21 35

JULY 21 37

AUG 21

[Bellhorn04]

aug 875

sep 966

 

That's the rollercoaster.

 

And it adds up to a 775 OPS and 104 OPS+.

 

Let's face it, Dalbec looked like he was toast for a little while there.

 

The team decided to stick with him and I have to assume they're working with him hard on his approach at the plate.

[moonslav59]

aug 875

sep 966

 

That's the rollercoaster.

 

Bunching most of your hits is not always a bad thing. If you bunch them in 20-8 and 16-2 wins, then it's not really a good thing, but if you bunch them when other hitters are slumping, and it helps you pull out a few wins, then it's not a bad thing.

[moonslav59]

We are one game behind the CWS & OAK (not in winning % but in GB) for the third best record in the AL.

 

1 behind the WC1 slot.

 

4 behind the Rays for the AL lead.

 

We are still 2.5 games up on the Yanks (1 in the loss column.)

[mvp 78]

Bunching most of your hits is not always a bad thing. If you bunch them in 20-8 and 16-2 wins, then it's not really a good thing, but if you bunch them when other hitters are slumping, and it helps you pull out a few wins, then it's not a bad thing.

 

The problem was that there were too few wins recently.

[mvp 78]

And it adds up to a 775 OPS and 104 OPS+.

 

Let's face it, Dalbec looked like he was toast for a little while there.

 

The team decided to stick with him and I have to assume they're working with him hard on his approach at the plate.

 

It's like when people kept using Chavis' original hot start to inflate his more recent numbers. You can throw 2020 out the window.

[Bellhorn04]

Losing streaks make everybody look bad. Including us.

[Bellhorn04]

It's like when people kept using Chavis' original hot start to inflate his more recent numbers. You can throw 2020 out the window.

 

No, we don't throw any real MLB numbers out the window, thanks.

[Kimmi]

The only problem with DD's career was handing out insane contracts, which he also did in Boston.

Name one prospect traded that will be next JBagwell? There ain't one!

 

Relish the 18 Season cus DD built a Powerhouse!

 

He has handed out insane contracts over his career, but I really don't have a problem with most of the contracts he gave out in Boston. I didn't like Price's contract, but unless I'm forgetting someone, I'm okay with the others.

[Kimmi]

Likely, yes, but they seem to find ways to do so while maintaining a strong farm and decent product on the field, even during reset seasons.

 

Only a few teams go over the tax line enough to determine any pattern, but there has been very few times where a team goes over the tax line for 3 or more years in a row.

 

People act like Henry suddenly deciding to tighten the checkbook is something new. Our history under Henry has shown that not only does he like to reset, often, the reset is usually followed by another year or two of under the tax line spending. It's not usually a one and done thing. I know, shocking, right?

 

Here is the Henry history:

 

No tax paid:

2003 (none in 2002 before Henry)

2008 & 2009

2012, 2013, 2014

2017

2020 & likely 2021

 

Only one reset (2017) was followed by going over the tax line the next season.

 

ONLY ONE TIME!

 

It's obvious, the tax means something to Henry. People can argue why it shouldn't all they want, but the fact is, it matters and likely will continue to matter, unless something radically changes.

 

Years we paid taxes:

 

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 (by far the longest stretch)

2010-2011

2015-2016

2018-2019

 

Since the mega tax penalty for going over 3 years in a row was enacted, we have never gone 3 years in a row over the line. To me, that is one reason why not going over, this year, might have been with 2024 in mind.

 

Our chances in 2024 will likely be better than 2021, IMO and probably Bloom & Henry's opinions, too.

 

Plus, going over the tax line involves some penalties beyond just monetary.

 

 

Good post Moon. The idea that any owner is going to just spend limitlessly year after year is just not reality. Yes, they can afford to do so, but they're not going to do it. It's not good business sense, plus as you mentioned, there are penalties beyond just the money.

 

Henry has always been right around the tax penalty limit in payroll every year. In some years, he'll go over. In others, he won't. I don't see anything changing with that.

[Kimmi]

So? How many WS will they have before that happens? And does the fact that the RS "reset" last year somehow discredit the rings they won before that?

 

They might not win any more WS before that happens. If you win a ring, then all is well. Just don't complain when you have to sit through seasons and offseasons like 2020 and 2021.

[Kimmi]

What extremes? The 2018 team was a juggernaut . But anything might just as easily not work out. In 2004 , Dave Roberts could have been picked off first base. And history would have changed. You roll the dice and you take your chances. And flags fly forever.

 

The extreme of emptying our farm system.

[moonslav59]

It's like when people kept using Chavis' original hot start to inflate his more recent numbers. You can throw 2020 out the window.

 

Did you like it when people used Pedey and JBJ's slow starts to deflate their numbers?

 

Renfroe's, this year?

 

Hell, some even wanted Devers demoted in mid April.

[notin]

Bobby Dalbec has now played in 119 MLB games.

 

.775 OPS

22 HR

68 RBI

 

Some would say that's pretty good for the first 3/4 of your first MLB season.

 

As far as bombs off bad pitchers - everybody fattens up their numbers that way.

 

Dalbec also had a 1.343 OPS in 5 games vs Tampa and Toronto, which shouldn’t be considered minor league staffs…

[moonslav59]

The extreme of emptying our farm system.

 

By any account, the amount of prospects traded away was extreme.

 

I do think saying "emptying the farm" is a bit harsh. He did leave Devers, and some of his draft picks have risen faster and higher than many expected.

[Kimmi]

By any account, the amount of prospects traded away was extreme.

 

I do think saying "emptying the farm" is a bit harsh. He did leave Devers, and some of his draft picks have risen faster and higher than many expected.

 

Semantics.

 

We went from a top 3 farm to a bottom 3 farm is 2 years. Call it what you want.

 

I do give him credit for not trading Devers.

[notin]

It's like when people kept using Chavis' original hot start to inflate his more recent numbers. You can throw 2020 out the window.

 

.. which is why “small sample sizes” exist…

[moonslav59]

Dalbec also had a 1.343 OPS in 5 games vs Tampa and Toronto, which shouldn’t be considered minor league staffs…

 

Career:

.884 vs teams over .500

.713 vs teams under .500

 

He's over .815 vs every team but...

.674 NYY

.515 ATL

.358 MIA

.311 SEA

.294 HOU

.111 DET

.083 TEX

 

His best?

1.881 KCR

1.750 WSH (nice rotation)

1.001 TOR

.944 CWS (nice rotation)

.922 LAA

.900 OAK (nice rotation)

.889 MIN

.888 BAL (was below .725 before yesterday)

.864 TBR (2nd best record in MLB since 2020)

.833 NYM (nice rotation)

.816 PHI

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Semantics.

 

We went from a top 3 farm to a bottom 3 farm is 2 years. Call it what you want.

 

I do give him credit for not trading Devers.

 

Yes, I agree with you 100%, but we need to be careful with our words for these sensitive DD worshipers.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I agree with you 100%, but we need to be careful with our words for these sensitive DD worshipers.

 

A sensitive DD worshiper might argue that he recognized that a lot of our highly rated prospects were overrated. Farm rankings are not gospel truth, and I would hope the people who run the teams are a little bit better judges than the people who make those rankings.

[moonslav59]

A sensitive DD worshiper might argue that he recognized that a lot of our highly rated prospects were overrated. Farm rankings are not gospel truth, and I would hope the people who run the teams are a little bit better judges than the people who make those rankings.

 

I'm fine with that opinion, and don't disagree.

 

That does not negate the fact that an extreme amount of prospects were traded in a very short window, the farm he left was worse than the one he inherited, and the farm & budget left behind contributed greatly to 2020 and the pre-season hopes to 2021.

 

Of course, there were other factors, like Henry tightening the purse strings and COVID hitting MLB hard.

 

Again, I'm happy we hired DD and greatly enjoyed the unprecedented 3 division wins, the fantastic 2018 season and WS win, and felt he created a window longer than the 3.5 years it turned out to be.

 

What I feel is lacking among some of the DD worshippers is the admission that his strategy and philosophy was a major factor in what happened at the end of 2019, the whole 2020 season and the state of our current farm and budget. It's something he did nearly every place he went, so it's not like it was some kind of fluke we fell off a cliff.

 

We can argue about just how bad the cliff was or is, and how much Bloom had to do with the quick turn-around and how much DD has to do with this year's success. (He has a significant role in it, IMO.)

 

Yes, the paper rankings can be wrong, but I'd rather have a top 10 farm than a bottom 10 farm and certainly top 3 vs bottom 3. Why is it so hard for some to at least give some slight lip service to one downfall of DD'd reign? They sure have an easy time blasting Ben and Bloom over certain downfalls of their record as GMs.

 

[Bellhorn04]

What I feel is lacking among some of the DD worshippers is the admission that his strategy and philosophy was a major factor in what happened at the end of 2019, the whole 2020 season and the state of our current farm and budget. It's something he did nearly every place he went, so it's not like it was some kind of fluke we fell off a cliff.

 

We can argue about just how bad the cliff was or is, and how much Bloom had to do with the quick turn-around and how much DD has to do with this year's success. (He has a significant role in it, IMO.)

 

OK, well, that term "the cliff", which was used here countless times, is definitely one reason people push back. "The cliff" sounded like 3-4 years of bad teams/rebuilding. It sounded like Jax's wet dream.

 

In reality, it was one pandemic-shortened season.

[Bellhorn04]

Something that gets overlooked about DD is that he's the guy who hired Cora. That was a huge plus for the future of the team in itself.

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to make any veiled point here, but here are some interesting numbers:

 

2021 Numbers by selected ex-Sox players:

 

.899 Betts

.695 Beni

.753 Moncada

.545 JBJ

.606 Pillar

.735 Moreland

.699 Margot

.646 Dubon

 

3.60 (55 IP) Price

2.53 (46 IP) Kopech

6.16 (19) Mazza

3.43 (45) Springs

5.40 (42) Hembree

DNP Buttrey

DNP Beeks

[moonslav59]

Something that gets overlooked about DD is that he's the guy who hired Cora. That was a huge plus for the future of the team in itself.

 

Indeed!

[moonslav59]

OK, well, that term "the cliff", which was used here countless times, is definitely one reason people push back. "The cliff" sounded like 3-4 years of bad teams/rebuilding. It sounded like Jax's wet dream.

 

In reality, it was one pandemic-shortened season.

 

I've mentioned this point over and over. The downturn was much shorter than I expected and some of the reasons for that have to do with DD's draft picks and acquisitions that exceeded my expectations. Some also has to go to Bloom for moving very quickly to build the farm from bottom 3 to maybe bottom 15 to 18, as well as improving the 40 man roster.

 

Let's not forget that the whole reset and decision to not go over, this year was Henry's not DD's, but the team budget and roster left by DD was a major factor in those choices by Henry.

 

All the complaints about not doing enough at the deadline are part of the effects left behind by DD, too. All we hear is Bloom bashing on the deadline, and certainly he could have or might have done more, but his focus has been on rebuilding the farm, and to me, rightly so. I can't help but think much of that is on DD not Bloom.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not forget that the whole reset and decision to not go over, this year was Henry's not DD's, but the team budget and roster left by DD was a major factor in those choices by Henry.

 

The decision not to go over this year was obviously a very calculated one based on the assumption that this year was not the one to go all-in. Most of us figured the team at 85 wins or so.

 

But who knows, if they had seen in the crystal ball that we'd be in first place on July 31, they might have spent more this offseason.

[moonslav59]

The decision not to go over this year was obviously a very calculated one based on the assumption that this year was not the one to go all-in. Most of us figured the team at 85 wins or so.

 

But who knows, if they had seen in the crystal ball that we'd be in first place on July 31, they might have spent more this offseason.

 

So, couldn't those plans and pre-season views be attributed to the last vestiges of the "cliff?"

[Nick]

Ah, there's not any DD worshippers. He was hired to do a job. To meet Corporate expectations.

 

We just intervene when DD haters spew garbage.

 

Look at our top 20. Where in the hell did they come from?

 

He had a MANDATE from HENRY.

 

GET US THE f*** OUT OF TWO LAST PLACE FINISHES.

 

Minor league players exist at the pleasure of big league team.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

Semantics.

 

We went from a top 3 farm to a bottom 3 farm is 2 years. Call it what you want.

 

I do give him credit for not trading Devers.

 

Top 3 to bottom 3 according to who's official rankings? If the bunch of nobodies that D.D. traded caused that shift , then the ratings are meaningless. More importantly, the Red Sox ( the parent club) went from last place to first . And that's a fact , not the opinion of some dork with a website.