A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Kimmi]

They have been making 60-90mil/year, until last year, when they claim to have lost $116mil. Given that the value of their franchise has grown 1.6billion in the last decade, I'm not going to agree with Kimmi that "teams should not go all in to such an extreme extent." Why not?

 

Because it does not guarantee anything. Teams can win the WS without going to such extremes, plus be better off for the long term.

 

I hate what Dombrowski did. Thankfully, it worked out in 2018. But it might have just as easily not worked out.

[MADSTORK]

Because it does not guarantee anything. Teams can win the WS without going to such extremes, plus be better off for the long term.

 

I hate what Dombrowski did. Thankfully, it worked out in 2018. But it might have just as easily not worked out.

 

 

The only problem with DD's career was handing out insane contracts, which he also did in Boston.

Name one prospect traded that will be next JBagwell? There ain't one!

 

Relish the 18 Season cus DD built a Powerhouse!

[moonslav59]

They are not concerned with paying big for a few years. Even they will hit their reset before too long.

 

Likely, yes, but they seem to find ways to do so while maintaining a strong farm and decent product on the field, even during reset seasons.

 

Only a few teams go over the tax line enough to determine any pattern, but there has been very few times where a team goes over the tax line for 3 or more years in a row.

 

People act like Henry suddenly deciding to tighten the checkbook is something new. Our history under Henry has shown that not only does he like to reset, often, the reset is usually followed by another year or two of under the tax line spending. It's not usually a one and done thing. I know, shocking, right?

 

Here is the Henry history:

 

No tax paid:

2003 (none in 2002 before Henry)

2008 & 2009

2012, 2013, 2014

2017

2020 & likely 2021

 

Only one reset (2017) was followed by going over the tax line the next season.

 

ONLY ONE TIME!

 

It's obvious, the tax means something to Henry. People can argue why it shouldn't all they want, but the fact is, it matters and likely will continue to matter, unless something radically changes.

 

Years we paid taxes:

 

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 (by far the longest stretch)

2010-2011

2015-2016

2018-2019

 

Since the mega tax penalty for going over 3 years in a row was enacted, we have never gone 3 years in a row over the line. To me, that is one reason why not going over, this year, might have been with 2024 in mind.

 

Our chances in 2024 will likely be better than 2021, IMO and probably Bloom & Henry's opinions, too.

 

Plus, going over the tax line involves some penalties beyond just monetary.

 

[moonslav59]

The only problem with DD's career was handing out insane contracts, which he also did in Boston.

Name one prospect traded that will be next JBagwell? There ain't one!

 

Relish the 18 Season cus DD built a Powerhouse!

 

1. The jury is still out on some prospects traded.

2. It's not always about how good the prospects traded away ended up doing, but what we got for them and their value at the time of the trade.

 

Not one poster here has said he should not have made any prospect trades.

 

He did great by deciding to keep Devers, and some of his draft picks, mostly very low in draft slots have done better than expected, so what was said a year or two back can be adjusted in hindsight, but even then, how many DD acquired prospects have lit the world on fire? (Yes, the jury is still out on them, too.) I see Houck. Am I missing someone else?

 

Already, Bloom has brought us Whiltock and hopes are high on Mayer, Yorke, Seabold, Jordan and others.

 

(Hopes are high on some DD guys, too: Bello, Casas, Duran, Jimenez & others)

 

[jad]

They are not concerned with paying big for a few years. Even they will hit their reset before too long.

 

So? How many WS will they have before that happens? And does the fact that the RS "reset" last year somehow discredit the rings they won before that?

[moonslav59]

Not all the best young players make the top 20 Sox Prospects lists, but here is a sampling of the best ranked prospects at these snapshots in time:

 

Fall 2003:

Lester

Youkilis

HRam

Shoppach

David Murphy

 

Fall 2011:

Bogey

Barnes

Doubront

A Wilson

Iggy

(Betts was unranked)

 

Fall 2015:

Devers

Moncada

Beni

Kopach

Espinoza

Margot

Chavis

L Allen, Dubon, Marco Hernandez

 

Fall 2019

Houck

Dalbec

Casas

Mata

Groome

Jimenez, Chatham, Ward, Bello

Kalish

Middy

 

Jorge de la Rosa

[moonslav59]

So? How many WS will they have before that happens? And does the fact that the RS "reset" last year somehow discredit the rings they won before that?

 

No, of course not. The point is the resets always come, even with the Dodgers, and fans will gripe when that time comes.

 

That time is now for the Sox.

 

Gripes abound.

[dgalehouse]

Because it does not guarantee anything. Teams can win the WS without going to such extremes, plus be better off for the long term.

 

I hate what Dombrowski did. Thankfully, it worked out in 2018. But it might have just as easily not worked out.

What extremes? The 2018 team was a juggernaut . But anything might just as easily not work out. In 2004 , Dave Roberts could have been picked off first base. And history would have changed. You roll the dice and you take your chances. And flags fly forever.

[moonslav59]

What extremes? The 2018 team was a juggernaut . But anything might just as easily not work out. In 2004 , Dave Roberts could have been picked off first base. And history would have changed. You roll the dice and you take your chances. And flags fly forever.

 

Can you name a time any Sox GM traded away that many top 20 prospects in such a short time?

 

Can you not see how someone might say what he did was extreme, beyond thinking it was worth it or not?

 

The fact is, it was rather extreme to trade so many prospects in such a short time.

 

Prospects traded (top soxprospects.com ranking)- not saying all these guys were great or even ended up being good, or if the tardes worked or not, but the sheer number traded was clearly extreme.

(Also, some of these prospects ranking were way lower when traded.)

 

1 Yoan Moncada (.822 OPS since 2019)

1 Blake Swihart

3 Manuel Margot (.694 career OPS, but plus defender and .895 in playoffs)

3 Anderson Espinoza

5 Michael Kopech (2.53 ERA in 46 IP, this year/3.12 career)

5 Jalen Beeks (4.23ERA w TBR)

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Ax Basabe

9 Marcus Dubon (.700 OPS in 450 PAs)

11 Shaun Anderson

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

18 Luis Aj Basabe

18 Jamie Callahan

20 Carlos Asuaje

20 Stephen Nogosek

20 Gerson Bautista

Ty Buttrey (had 3.86 ERA w LAA '19-'20)

[moonslav59]

2021 Sox Current Records:

67-51 Boston (5th best in AL/8th in MLB)

46-40 Worcester (10th best in league)

52-34 Portland (2nd best in league)

46-41 Greenville (5th best)

51-36 Salem (3rd best)

[Bellhorn04]

No, of course not. The point is the resets always come, even with the Dodgers, and fans will gripe when that time comes.

 

That time is now for the Sox.

 

Gripes abound.

 

The third year penalties are one of the things players should be fighting against in the next CBA.

[moonslav59]

The third year penalties are one of the things players should be fighting against in the next CBA.

 

The tax affects very few teams and players, especially the 3rd year part.

 

The number one thing players should fight for, IMO, is greater pay equity. When 1 or two players can make more than a whole team, something is out of whack.

 

Min wage should be tripled or quadrupled, time to reach arbs reduced and the amount of arb years, as well.

[Nick]

Dalbec OPS creeping above .700 with a homer today. Maybe the patience will pay off.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec OPS creeping above .700 with a homer today. Maybe the patience will pay off.

 

.726 now.

[Nick]

.726 now.

 

1.389 for August!!!!!

[Nick]

I suggested this couple of years ago.

 

Whatever team you're with when you are eligible for Rookie of the Year, that team is your designated 'home' team.

 

'Home' team can have one exemption each year (it can change player from year to year) on one single player and caps luxury tax payroll at say $20M on said player. So we could have paid Betts $30M, but only $20M would count against the luxury tax payroll. What if we then sign Devers for $35M? He's also a 'homer' so you can now count Betts at $30 but Devers only at $20M.

 

Player's union would love this. Sox would not have to count $15M of Devers annual salary because he's 'homegrown'.

 

This encourages teams such as Sox to retain fan favorites.

 

Sale's AAV is $25.6M. Sox would have 'saved' $5.6M for another quality reliever.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

Can you name a time any Sox GM traded away that many top 20 prospects in such a short time?

 

Can you not see how someone might say what he did was extreme, beyond thinking it was worth it or not?

 

The fact is, it was rather extreme to trade so many prospects in such a short time.

 

Prospects traded (top soxprospects.com ranking)- not saying all these guys were great or even ended up being good, or if the tardes worked or not, but the sheer number traded was clearly extreme.

(Also, some of these prospects ranking were way lower when traded.)

 

1 Yoan Moncada (.822 OPS since 2019)

1 Blake Swihart

3 Manuel Margot (.694 career OPS, but plus defender and .895 in playoffs)

3 Anderson Espinoza

5 Michael Kopech (2.53 ERA in 46 IP, this year/3.12 career)

5 Jalen Beeks (4.23ERA w TBR)

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Ax Basabe

9 Marcus Dubon (.700 OPS in 450 PAs)

11 Shaun Anderson

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

18 Luis Aj Basabe

18 Jamie Callahan

20 Carlos Asuaje

20 Stephen Nogosek

20 Gerson Bautista

Ty Buttrey (had 3.86 ERA w LAA '19-'20)

 

Long list of names, but not a very impressive one other than Moncada and Kopech. And we got Sale for them. Overall , what we got back for them was more than they really were worth. And those kind of prospects are easily replaced. And indeed , they have been replaced.

[Nick]

Third year penalty for going over by say $10M is $5M.

 

How much money did we have to match Moncada acquisition? It was TONS more than $5M we're worried about.

[Nick]

Long list of names, but not a very impressive one other than Moncada and Kopech. And we got Sale for them. Overall , what we got back for them was more than they really were worth. And those kind of prospects are easily replaced. And indeed , they have been replaced.

 

Which again proves the point that it's always better trade one of them for two prospects again and again if given the opportunity. It is crapshoot. More players you have better chance you'll get some decent major leaguers.

[User Name]

Some of you are missing the point. It's easy to make acquisitions when it's not your money. As much as they claim otherwise this ownership cares about the bottom line, as they should.

 

It's also worth noting that repeat luxury tax offenders also suffer draft capital losses and not only straight financial ones.

 

Saying that it's a good idea to build a sustainable contender in no way diminishes the value of a championship. But the more you make the playoffs the more chances you have at winning rings.

 

All that being said, f*** Matt Barnes.

[moonslav59]

Long list of names, but not a very impressive one other than Moncada and Kopech. And we got Sale for them. Overall , what we got back for them was more than they really were worth. And those kind of prospects are easily replaced. And indeed , they have been replaced.

 

I get that. Really, I do, but don't say DD didn't make an extreme amount of prospects trades, many of them highly touted, at the time, some not as high as the rankings I posted indicated.

 

It was extreme, but it was worth it. We won a ring, and not many of the guys he traded have done anything close to lighting the world on fire.

 

It's okay to love what DD did, but not sugar coat what it ended up leading to.

[moonslav59]

Some of you are missing the point. It's easy to make acquisitions when it's not your money. As much as they claim otherwise this ownership cares about the bottom line, as they should.

 

It's also worth noting that repeat luxury tax offenders also suffer draft capital losses and not only straight financial ones.

 

Saying that it's a good idea to build a sustainable contender in no way diminishes the value of a championship. But the more you make the playoffs the more chances you have at winning rings.

 

All that being said, f*** Matt Barnes.

 

You had me, until the Barnes bashing.

 

BTW, I like the new avatar.

[User Name]

You had me, until the Barnes bashing.

 

BTW, I like the new avatar.

 

Meh, never liked him as closer.

[moonslav59]

Meh, never liked him as closer.

 

Maybe next year he sets up Houck or a FA closer we sign.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

 

.929 Devers

.908 Schwarber (WSH-BOS)

.897 JD M

.895 Bogey

 

.799 Kike

.798 Renfroe

.792 Arroyo

.776 Verdugo

.775 Plawecki

.726 Dalbec

 

.634 Vaz

 

.599 Duran

.567 Marwin

.554 Santana

.497 Cordero

 

We could have a line-up with all batters over .775.

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[User Name]

Maybe next year he sets up Houck or a FA closer we sign.

 

Houck as a relief arm is a waste. He has a very similar profile to Chris Sale at that level of experience, believe it or not.

[moonslav59]

Houck as a relief arm is a waste. He has a very similar profile to Chris Sale at that level of experience, believe it or not.

 

He's throwing 99 mph?

 

LOL.

[mvp 78]

Houck as a relief arm is a waste. He has a very similar profile to Chris Sale at that level of experience, believe it or not.

 

Sale has more than two pitches though.

[moonslav59]

Sale has more than two pitches though.

 

...and maybe they were slightly better at Houck's age.

 

LOL.

[User Name]

Sale has more than two pitches though.

 

That's why "similar profile" is a broad statement.

 

I suggest a look see at this video to see where I'm coming from:

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/147vVHgRkzA?feature=share