A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

I suppose it's possible, but it seems like wishful thinking.

 

Why would anyone "wish" that?

 

It would expose a serious mental flaw with one of our key pitchers.

 

I'm still not sold on needing a third pitch to get by the third time around.

 

[mvp 78]

I've never been one to buy into the third time through the line-up rants, and sometimes I wonder if pitchers read about it so much, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, but with Houck, he might be better as our long man- taking Whitlock's role.

 

Oh yeah, I'm sure that's what it is!

[mvp 78]

Yeah, it's not even a real stat, is it? It's a number you can derive.

 

At the same time, we do know that some pitchers do better with some catchers.

 

Yes, but it doesn't say anything about the quality of the catcher. It's just the comfort level.

[mvp 78]

I get it, and I'm buying into it, now, with Houck.

 

Do you think it's possible Houck reads about his horrific third time through stats and it's in the back of his mind, when that first guy gets up the third time?

 

I think he let up 3 straight hits, yesterday once the top of the order got up the third time.

 

(I'm not as stubborn as I seem. lol)

 

No, it's just a self fulfilling prophecy. Houck believe that his 2 pitches can't get him to the 7th inning, so he just folds in the 4th and 5th innings.

[mvp 78]

I too remember all those articles stating that he couldn't turn the lineup over for the past 4 years. That must be it!!!!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Why would anyone "wish" that?

 

It would expose a serious mental flaw with one of our key pitchers.

 

Personally, I'd call that a very fixable flaw for a young pitcher with good stuff.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but it doesn't say anything about the quality of the catcher. It's just the comfort level.

 

The comfort level has to come from something.

[Nick]

An excellent article, Tomase: Five Sox players we've seen enough of this season.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/five-red-sox-players-we-dont-need-see-rest-season

 

Also, the video is interesting too--Lou Merloni has some strong opinions on Bloom's work at the trade deadline.

 

YES WE'VE SEEN ENOUGH OF MARWIN, CORA'S FAVORITE. Yes, I've seen enough of Dalbec. His whiff rate is hurting the team.

 

IF THEY DO BRING BACK SANTANA THEN I WILL QUESTION EVERYONE'S INTELLIGENCE OF BASEBALL OPS.

 

Free Agent Misses

 

Richards

Perez

Marwin

Santana

Two jokers at trade deadline

[moonslav59]

Yes, but it doesn't say anything about the quality of the catcher. It's just the comfort level.

 

Does it matter the reason for better success?

 

Did you see the massive disparities over the longer term sample sizes I posted?

 

Almost all showing anybody and just about everybody getting more success with our pitchers than Vaz did/does?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m thinking, next year, Whitlock is moved to the rotation and Houck takes Ottavino or Barnes slot in the pen.

 

We sign an aging, but quality SPer and go with this:

 

Sale

FA

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

 

 

We hope Sale will be back 100%, Whitlock provides more innings per outing (5? 4?), and a year older Nate and Nick won't regress.

 

But I'm still trying to figure out who that quality SP will be that will magically transform the rotation into an asset that will make the Sox worth "going all in" in '22... to the front office.

 

I just can't see Bloom spending and committing the money and years the market will command to sign any old pitchers. Can anyone even see him making the top bid to lock up Gausman? Me, neither. Based on recent directions, best case scenario may be to convince Noah Syndergaard to ink a short-term pact so Thor can prove himself post-TJ?

[moonslav59]

The comfort level has to come from something.

 

That's why I mentioned it's not just pitch-calling, but relationships and comfort levels.

 

It may not be called a "skill," but it is certainly real for many pitchers.

[moonslav59]

We hope Sale will be back 100%, Whitlock provides more innings per outing (5? 4?), and a year older Nate and Nick won't regress.

 

But I'm still trying to figure out who that quality SP will be that will magically transform the rotation into an asset that will make the Sox worth "going all in" in '22... to the front office.

 

I just can't see Bloom spending and committing the money and years the market will command to sign any old pitchers. Can anyone even see him making the top bid to lock up Gausman? Me, neither. Based on recent directions, best case scenario may be to convince Noah Syndergaard to ink a short-term pact so Thor can prove himself post-TJ?

 

I don't think there is a pitcher like the one we both want, this winter.

 

That's why I think we'll sign an aging pitcher to a short term deal, and hope we get "that guy" we want, in 2023 or 2024.

 

We may need that aging pitcher to pull a pre-2021 Verlander for us to win in 2022.

[Key2Delock]

Before the season, most predictions I saw had the Red Sox finishing fourth in the AL East this year. After leading the AL East for much of the season, the script could be flipped this weekend unless the Red Sox take advantage of their favorable schedule.

 

The Red Sox have to hope that (1) they avoid a repeat of the first three games of the season when they were swept at home by Baltimore and (2) the Yankees (at Chicago) and Toronto (at Seattle) make up no ground on the Red Sox. If the worst happens and the Yankees and Blue Jays both sweep their weekend games and the Red Sox drop three to the Orioles, then the AL East standings on Monday will show NY at 65-52, TOR at 65-52 and BOS at 66-54.

[moonslav59]

Before the season, most predictions I saw had the Red Sox finishing fourth in the AL East this year. After leading the AL East for much of the season, the script could be flipped this weekend unless the Red Sox take advantage of their favorable schedule.

 

The Red Sox have to hope that (1) they avoid a repeat of the first three games of the season when they were swept at home by Baltimore and (2) the Yankees (at Chicago) and Toronto (at Seattle) make up no ground on the Red Sox. If the worst happens and the Yankees and Blue Jays both sweep their weekend games and the Red Sox drop three to the Orioles, then the AL East standings on Monday will show NY at 65-52, TOR at 65-52 and BOS at 66-54.

 

The Yanks play at OAK 4 games at the end of August: someone has to lose.

 

The Yanks play TOR 7 times by the end of the year and end the season play TBR for 3.

 

TOR plays at SEA for 3 starting tonight. Someone has to lose. They play the CWS 4 games, soon. They also play OAK for 3 and at NYY for 4. They end the season playing TBR 6 times & NYY 3 times in their last 19 games.

 

OAK has this stretch starting 8/16

4 @ CWS

3 v SFG

2 v SEA

4 v NYY

later, they play 3 @ TOR & 3 v CWS.

 

They end the season with 3 @ LAA, 7 v SEA & 6 v HOU

[Kimmi]

I couldn't disagree more with that video... "Maybe, Cashman had to give up more because the other teams paid the salaries..."

 

"Maybe?" LOL!

 

 

I usually agree with Merloni, but not in this case.

 

There was a reason why Bloom was hired, and it was not to go all out to win in any single year.

[Kimmi]

I've never been one to buy into the third time through the line-up rants, and sometimes I wonder if pitchers read about it so much, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, but with Houck, he might be better as our long man- taking Whitlock's role.

 

We need a FA SP'er, and Sale, Eovaldi and Pivetta look like they have slots for 2022. I'm fine with giving Houck a shot, but I like Whitlock better as a starter and Houck better as a RP'er, next year.

 

I'll wait to judge Brasier after we see what he does over the next 6+ weeks.

 

The 3rd time through the order thing is very real.

 

The data on this is overwhelming, even with your best pitchers.

[Kimmi]

Yes, but it doesn't say anything about the quality of the catcher. It's just the comfort level.

 

Comfort level and confidence are very huge factors when it comes to the pitcher/catcher tandem.

[moonslav59]

The 3rd time through the order thing is very real.

 

The data on this is overwhelming, even with your best pitchers.

 

I have said, I agree, especially with Houck- enough so, that I now think Houck should be in the pen, next year.

[Bellhorn04]

What if Houck is a lights-out 5 inning starter? Haven't we agreed that's a valuable commodity?

[moonslav59]

What if Houck is a lights-out 5 inning starter? Haven't we agreed that's a valuable commodity?

 

It is, but unless you are doing great, you may not get to the 5th by the time the 19th batter comes up, and I think Whitlock is better suited to go 5+, next year.

 

Plus, we'll need an Ottavino replacement.

 

I'm fine with Houck starting, but I like Whitlock better, and I think we'll sign a better SP'er, this winter. (if not, then both Houck & Whitlock start.)

[mvp 78]

What if Houck is a lights-out 5 inning starter? Haven't we agreed that's a valuable commodity?

 

If your starter only goes 5, it really adds more stress to the bullpen. We are seeing that they are wearing down this year due to the weird reduced season last year and starters that can't go long. Pitching injuries have been crazy this year. Feels like they have been worse coming off 2020, but it could be recency bias.

[mvp 78]

It is, but unless you are doing great, you may not get to the 5th by the time the 19th batter comes up, and I think Whitlock is better suited to go 5+, next year.

 

Plus, we'll need an Ottavino replacement.

 

I'm fine with Houck starting, but I like Whitlock better, and I think we'll sign a better SP'er, this winter. (if not, then both Houck & Whitlock start.)

 

I agree.

[Bellhorn04]

Comfort level and confidence are very huge factors when it comes to the pitcher/catcher tandem.

 

Hmmm, sounds a little like the clutch/choke thing to me. Purely intangible, anecdotal and unprovable, but accepted as real.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hmmm, sounds a little like the clutch/choke thing to me. Purely intangible, anecdotal and unprovable, but accepted as real.

 

That's the kind of qualitative data that college professors love to pounce on so they can make you rewrite your master's thesis for the hundredth time. It's just their way of paying it backward, getting revenge for their days as lowly grad students.

[mvp 78]

Hmmm, sounds a little like the clutch/choke thing to me. Purely intangible, anecdotal and unprovable, but accepted as real.

 

I posted the same in the clutch thread.

[Nick]

7+ INNINGS BY STARTERS

 

7.0 4/07 Eovaldi vs TB

7.0 4/25 E Rod vs SEA

7.0 4/27 Richards vs NYM

7.0 5/08 Richards vs BAL

7.2 6/03 PereZ vs HOU

7.2 6/28 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 7/01 Eovaldi vs KC

7.0 7/04 Pivetta vs OAK

7.2 7/24 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 8/11 Eovaldi vs TB

 

10 Games Total

 

Anyone know how to get this for other AL teams? I had to go pitcher by pitcher for Sox. It's crazy to think no one has gone 8 innings. Are hitters more patient, driving up the pitch count?

[Bellhorn04]

7+ INNINGS BY STARTERS

 

7.0 4/07 Eovaldi vs TB

7.0 4/25 E Rod vs SEA

7.0 4/27 Richards vs NYM

7.0 5/08 Richards vs BAL

7.2 6/03 PereZ vs HOU

7.2 6/28 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 7/01 Eovaldi vs KC

7.0 7/04 Pivetta vs OAK

7.2 7/24 Eovaldi vs NYY

7.0 8/11 Eovaldi vs TB

 

10 Games Total

 

Anyone know how to get this for other AL teams? I had to go pitcher by pitcher for Sox. It's crazy to think no one has gone 8 innings. Are hitters more patient, driving up the pitch count?

 

Hitters are more patient and managers are more hook-happy.

 

I'd like to see these numbers for the Rays.

[jad]

That's the kind of qualitative data that college professors love to pounce on so they can make you rewrite your master's thesis for the hundredth time. It's just their way of paying it backward, getting revenge for their days as lowly grad students.

 

No more fitting punishment can be imagined for a professor who demands revisions in a master's thesis (or who assigns one in the first place) than reading revisions in a master's thesis.

[moonslav59]

Hitters are more patient and managers are more hook-happy.

 

I'd like to see these numbers for the Rays.

 

I don't think hitters are more patient and forcing more pitches per inning by starters.

 

The Rays have used 12 starting pitchers - 7 with more than 4 starts.

Most IP (7 or more IP)

19 Hill (traded): 8.0, no 7's

17 Yarbrough: 9.0 & one 7.0

17 McClanahan: one 7.0 (his last start)

15 Wacha: only 2 as high as 6.0

14 Glasnow (out all year): 8.0. 7.2, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0

11 Fleming: one 7.0

8 Patino: nothing higher than 6.0

[mvp 78]

Ohtani for Bogaerts/Verdugo/Pivetta

 

Extend Ohtani at 8/320