Yirsandy Rodríguez

It was just 154 balls put in play in 225 plate appearances, which does not seem sufficient to be certain about his contact ability, but for Boston Red Sox slugger Mickey Gasper, it meant the first big opportunity earned since he debuted in the major leagues back in 2024. The journey for Gasper has been a challenge in this short time. After debuting with the Red Sox in August 2024, Gasper went 0-for-18, with eight strikeouts in 13. Boston had selected him from the Yankees in the minor-league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but then on December 24, 2024, the team sent him to Minnesota in exchange for left-handed reliever Jovani Moran, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery. With the Twins, Gasper played 45 games in 2025 and recorded a .158/.257/.232 batting line, with a .488 OPS in 110 plate appearances. He also dealt with plantar fasciitis in both feet, an injury that limited his availability to get more opportunities. On January 14, 2026, Minnesota designated him for assignment after claiming utility player Vidal Brujan and, six days later, the Washington Nationals claimed him off waivers. When it seemed that Gasper would find a new opportunity to try to stabilize his career at 30 years old, the Nationals also designated him for assignment on January 29. In that situation, Boston took advantage of a second opportunity and claimed him off waivers on February 4. He started the 2026 season at Triple-A Worcester, where he destroyed pitching by producing a 1.016 OPS, nine home runs and 42 RBIs in 54 games. He was named the team’s Most Valuable Player and finished among the organization’s top minor leaguers in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. His first call-up to Boston came on May 7. Gasper found opportunities on the Red Sox roster and established personal MLB records with 67 games, 10 home runs and a .251/.357/.466 batting line, good for an .823 OPS. But his production skyrocketed when he was called up again on August 16. From then until an injury prematurely ended his season, he recorded a 1.082 OPS, a .667 slugging percentage and 10 home runs, figures that placed him among the most productive hitters in MLB during that stretch (with a minimum of 50 plate appearances). The streak in August was my favorite turning point of the year, when Gasper hit .400, with a 1.671 OPS in 30 at-bats. That mark was the fifth-highest for a calendar month in MLB since 1898, with a minimum of 30 plate appearances. Seven of his 10 home runs with Boston came to put the Red Sox ahead or tie the game: three gave them the lead and four tied the game. On September 22, he hit a pinch-hit solo home run to tie the game in the eighth inning against Cleveland, his first home run in that role. In addition, his final four home runs of the season came on the first pitch. Despite his short playing time, all those achievements marked his season in a special way, but I think what defined the season was not his power jump with 11 home runs—ten of them came in the second half of the season, and ten with the bases empty—but Gasper’s ability to crush fastballs. That was the main adjustment he made, overcoming the pitch that had limited his progress as a hitter. Before 2026, Gasper hit just .177 (11-for-62) against MLB fastballs, with only one home run. His contact ability was not the problem, since Gasper recorded a low 11.8 K%, but his xBA was only .203 and .195 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In 2026, that story took a complete turn. Gasper saw 229 four-seam fastballs and responded by producing a .380 average, .800 slugging and a hard-hit rate of 55.3. He limited his strikeouts even more, reducing his rate to 4.6 K% and whiffs to just 6.8%. If we reduce the filter to qualified hitters with at least 50 plate appearances that ended with four-seam fastballs in 2026, the results will probably surprise you. Yes, as you can see, Gasper tops the list! Look, we know that 4.9 RV/100 was built practically with his offensive performance in the month of August, but seeing him lead with that small sample was one of the most interesting signs that continues to make us think about how valuable Gasper could be. By going a little deeper into his contact ability against four-seam fastballs and his ability to reduce his swing-and-miss rate, another interesting note appears: Gasper was the hitter with the highest xSLG (.538) among a small group of just seven hitters who finished with less than a 12% whiff rate. Who were the others? Ketel Marte (.533 xSLG, 10 whiffs%), Otto Lopez (.519, 10.1%) and Kevin McGonigle (.511, 9.9%), all terrific infielders with All-Star credentials. Gasper finished the year on the injured list with a right biceps strain, retroactive to September 26, which prevented him from participating in the final game of the season. Looking ahead, his breakout was one of the best surprises of the 2026 season, even though his defense will be the most complicated point in being able to find playing time. Still, he stays healthy and demonstrates that his progress at the plate wasn't a mere fluke, he'll find his way into Chad Tracy's lineup on a regular basis. View full article

In baseball, there is an old saying that the second year is even more difficult than the rookie one; there's a reason the "sophomore slump" still exists in our lexicon today. For Boston Red Sox third baseman Caleb Durbin, his start to Year 2 was puzzling, but he managed to find his rhythm before it was too late. Durbin entered May 28 batting just .163, with a .241 on-base percentage and a .479 OPS in 48 games. Even so, he improved his plate discipline, a step that helped him achieve better pitch selection and turned him into one of the most productive hitters in clutch situations for the rest of the season. After opening with just 48 and 43 wRC+ in March/April and May, respectively, he raised his wRC+ to 163 in June—his highest point of the entire season—and the only considerable drop he experienced came in September, when he fell to 99. Between May 28 and the end of the season, Durbin hit .283/.369/.435, with 12 home runs among his 30 extra-base hits and a .803 OPS in 105 games, ranking among the American League’s best hitters in several categories. He finished the season with a .248/.332/.378 slash line, 13 home runs, 64 RBIs, 20 stolen bases in 26 attempts, and 3.1 fWAR, surpassing his 2.7 mark in his first year. However, he could not avoid his major contact problems against fastballs, part of what prevented his season from being even more productive. This is not a new challenge for Durbin, as his inconsistency against high velocity has been his Achilles’ heel for several reasons. The main one remains his poor bat speed, finishing in the 6th percentile last year and the 13th this season. Despite improving from 67.9 mph with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2025 to 71.8 mph with his adjustments in Boston, his swing continued to look limited. Therefore, the league’s strategy was reasonable. In 2026, pitchers attacked him with more fastballs than in 2025, increasing the percentages from 57.3 to 60.3, and his whiff rate skyrocketed from 6.0% to 15.3%, with many more strikeouts (18.4 K% compared to 5.7%). Still, he graded out positively by run value, and we can attribute that to the fact that he was one of the league’s best hitters in clutch situations. With runners in scoring position, he hit .288 and recorded a .816 OPS in 125 at-bats, with three home runs and 50 RBIs—he also hit two grand slams. When Durbin recorded at least one RBI, he helped his team win 34 out of 46 games. Even with his problems against fastballs, we can see Durbin in the 88th percentile in whiff% and the 91st in K%, figures similar to those from his first year (plus an added advantage in his plate discipline, finishing in the 45th percentile in BB%). His power could improve in the future, but that would involve some changes to his swing and moving away from what he has been able to do best: putting the ball in play. That's only half of where his value comes from, too. Durbin was recently selected as one of the three Gold Glove finalists at third base this season, and he led the American League at the position in Fielding Run Value (+6) and Outs Above Average (+6), two stats that make him a strong favorite to win the award. I know the last impression Durbin left us with was disappointing, when we saw him struggle against the New York Yankees’ pitching until finishing 0-for-7 in the Wild Card Series. But he's becoming a more complete player in front of our eyes, with a chance to be one of the league's best third basemen before long. View full article

It is difficult to forget the recent image Jarren Duran left behind, being completely shut down by the New York Yankees pitchers for the second consecutive year in the Wild Card Series. His presence in the last two postseasons with the Boston Red Sox has been disappointing, finishing 1-for-14 with five strikeouts. Look, I like Duran, and we all know that, given his tools, he can be a very useful player, but the problem here is that since his breakout season in 2024, he has declined every year. Just look at some of his percentile rankings over the past three years. He is still an elite runner and a fielder who could once again outperform the average player, but in batting value, he has fallen from the 96th percentile to the 1st. Yes, Duran just finished his second 20-20 season in the last three years. But in 2026, he finished with the worst offensive line of his entire career, batting .207/.266/.361, with just a 69 wRC+ and .627 OPS. His fWAR of 0.5 is so much worse than 2024 that you might as well be talking about two different players. The decline in his impact on the game in terms of consistency was too great. His strikeout rate fell to the worst mark of his career in qualified seasons, at 27.1%, which was combined with his worst regression in BABIP (.252), falling below his .300 standard for the first time. The problem with his slugging comes from the fact that Duran has not been able to produce the same amount of extra-base hits, especially doubles and triples, as in his previous two campaigns, like when he led the league with 48 doubles and 14 triples in 2024. Last year, he again surpassed 40 doubles and led the league once more with 13 triples. This year, he hit just 15 doubles and five triples, and it is clear that the problem was not just his ability to put the ball in play. Duran maintained elite bat speed, continued to be the same hitter with high chase and whiff rates, and struggled against left-handed pitchers. None of that is new. His ability to generate hard-hit balls did not completely collapse either, finishing in the 60th percentile in Barrel%. So, what made a notable difference was the results of his balls in play. Duran recorded the worst xBA (.273) and xSLG (.388) marks of his career, and he was unable to compensate for part of the decline in his on-base percentage because he finished with the second-worst walk rate of his career (6.7). At this point, breaking pitches and off-speed pitches were responsible for most of Duran’s regression. His whiff rate exceeded 38.0% against both pitch groups, but when he hit them, the result was just as worse, finishing with just a .199 xBA against breaking pitches and .211 against changeups. In contrast, Duran was lethal against fastballs, producing 14 of his 20 home runs and a .479 xSLG. As you can see in this graph, Duran was pretty good at crushing pitches down the middle and in the upper third of the strike zone and, in general, when he managed to pull any pitch, his production rose to a 159 wRC+. However, his reduced hot zone against the mix of breaking balls and changeups can be seen in the lower and outside part of the zone, far from his best contact point. The power profile Duran offers has always been interesting, but his great ability to impact the game comes with his speed. So, a runner with his skills definitely needs to be more consistent at getting on base, especially in a Red Sox lineup that does not rely on power. What I enjoy most about the conversation surrounding Duran’s 20-20 season, or any other player’s, is not exactly the numbers. Hitting home runs and stealing bases at that level is not easy at all, but doing it in situations that truly add greater value to the probability of winning also makes a difference in the game. In Duran’s case, his 20-20 was really more like a solid 15-15, as he managed to produce 16 home runs that positively impacted the scoreboard for the Red Sox. He hit seven home runs with the game tied, four when the team had a lead of two runs or fewer, and the same number when they were trailing by three runs or fewer. Something similar happened with his stolen bases, recording 15 in situations when the team was tied, or trailing or leading by a margin of three runs. If he can right the ship in any of these regards—more extra-base hits, better production against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, or performance in clutch moments—Duran can still be a valuable piece of the Red Sox. But when everything comes together like it did in 2026, it's a lot easier to find the flaws in his game. View full article

Willson Contreras' 2026 season ended with a walk in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against New York Yankees closer David Bednar. He finished that fateful elimination night for the Boston Red Sox going 2-for-2, reaching base in all four of his plate appearances. One at-bat earlier, in the sixth inning, he had hit a home run to right field at Yankee Stadium against Max Fried, breaking a streak of 26⅔ consecutive innings in which the Red Sox had gone without scoring a run in the postseason against New York. As usual, in those games when no Red Sox hitter could get a hit, Contreras put together quality at-bats. Since arriving in the organization, he became the leader the team needed on and off the field, and he did it throughout the year while overcoming injuries and difficult moments, such as the team's bewildering start during the first half of the season, which cost Alex Cora and his coaching staff their jobs. For Contreras, without a doubt, it was the best season of his career. That sounds great, especially because it was his first year as a Red Sox player, and we should not forget that it was also only his second year since he began the transition to first base during his final contract year with the St. Louis Cardinals. His defense was above average and, although he finished in the 64th percentile in OAA, down from the 92nd percentile he recorded in 2025, he improved in important areas such as First Base Receiving, which had been at -2 during his first experience at the cold corner. Now, where Contreras made the real difference was in his offensive impact, which went beyond his leadership with the Red Sox. He did not have inconsistent months. His lowest wRC+ was 103 in August, when the discomfort in his left hamstring kept getting worse. We also cannot forget that he was hit by a 95.4 mph pitch from Dodgers pitcher Will Klein. All of this ended with him being placed on the injured list on August 31, after which he missed 12 games. From that point on, the second half of the season became a challenge for the Venezuelan first baseman. After returning, he was hit by another pitch on September 17 and was sidelined again until the 27th, when he played Boston's final game of the regular season as the designated hitter against the Cubs. A month earlier, in July, Contreras was on fire and produced a .323/.488/.629 slash line, with five home runs, 14 RBIs, a 206 wRC+, and a 1.117 OPS. His drop to a .715 OPS in August was the only time his OPS fell below .856. But then he bounced back and maintained his pace, leading the offensive production during the comeback that changed the Red Sox's season, when they went 27-3 between July 3 and August 7. His first half of the season was the best of his career, after setting personal bests with 89 hits, 20 home runs, 38 extra-base hits, and 61 RBIs. That performance earned him his fourth All-Star Game selection at 34 years old and a spot in the Home Run Derby, where he was eliminated in the semifinals (9-8) during a memorable battle against Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. Contreras' second half of the season was also solid, featuring a 143 wRC+. His offensive consistency helped propel the team into the playoffs and allowed him to record several personal milestones. He finished in MLB's 99th percentile in batting value, 96th in bat speed, 95th in xwOBA, 90th in barrels, and 89th in xSLG, with 27 home runs, 81 RBIs, 59 walks, a .386 on-base percentage, a .902 OPS, and 4.0 fWAR. His OPS was the second-best in the American League, and he led all first basemen with a 152 wRC+. The reason he finished second in fWAR was the offensive explosion by Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (4.3 fWAR), who caught fire at the plate with 20 home runs and 44 RBIs in his final 41 games between August and September. That production was part of a late-season stretch that also cost Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez the Triple Crown. Contreras also stood out beyond his power and determination at the plate: he took a big step forward in on-base percentage, and I think that was what took his season to another level. For the first time in his entire career, he became an extreme pull hitter, with a 54.3 Pull%, a reasonable figure given the particularities of playing half his season at Fenway Park. But the turning point was not just about home runs, as Contreras hit 14 at home and 13 on the road. What stood out most was the consistency with which he adopted his new approach, accompanied by greater plate discipline, to finish the season with an elite on-base percentage and the second-highest BABIP (.336) among first basemen across the major leagues. Contreras' swing speed was another of his fundamental tools: he finished 10th overall in bat speed, at 77 mph. Once again, his results against fastballs were devastating, giving him his fifth consecutive season with at least 10 home runs. If we did not count the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, then it would be six seasons, since Contreras hit 13 home runs in 2019 and destroyed fastballs with a .512 xSLG. Given his high bat speed, opponents threw him more off-speed pitches than ever (14.8%), but he responded with a .301 batting average and a .504 xSLG against such offerings, despite his high 41.3% whiff rate. So, the league's adjustment was not enough in that area, and pitchers often opted to throw him more breaking pitches, against which his contact production fell to a .226 xBA, with a 35.3 K%. Even so, Contreras has recorded a .449 and .452 xSLG against breaking pitches over the last two seasons, so it is likely that his approach for next season will involve working to reduce his problems against that type of pitch. Contreras has a guaranteed contract through 2027 and a club option for 2028. Although repeating this impact at age 35 will be a challenge, his projections are encouraging. For that reason, the Red Sox's priority must be keeping him healthy across a full campaign, lest they lose one of the best power hitters from their lineup. View full article

The hope the Boston Red Sox have left is that they will not face Cam Schlittler again. And that difference, no matter how bad the offense looked yesterday, can be an incentive to readjust and try to come back stronger in Game 2. Schlittler silenced the Red Sox again by throwing a solid 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and only two hits allowed, in his first start of the entire year with more than 106 pitches. When many of us thought Schlittler was done after striking out Adley Rutschman—until that point he had the team’s only hit in 20 plate appearances—to close out the sixth inning, Yankees manager Aaron Boone sent him out to open the seventh. He threw 117 pitches and generated 24 swings and misses, a career high. Now, in two postseason starts against the Red Sox, after also eliminating them last year in the Wild Card Series, he is 2-0, with 14 1/3 scoreless innings, 22 strikeouts and only one walk. He is this team's newest kryptonite. Schlittler threw his fastball 56% of the time and averaged 98.6 mph—topping out at 101 mph—and it was clear that the Red Sox still cannot hit high velocity. But in Game 1, there was a much bigger problem against Schlittler’s mix, as, on their 11 balls put in play, there were only two batted balls that exceeded 95 mph in exit velocity. Both ended up as groundouts into the glove of Yankees second baseman Anthony Volpe: one by Caleb Durbin at 100.1 mph for the second out of the third inning, and the second out of the fifth inning, a ball hit by Nick Sogard at 96.3 mph. In part, everything is due to the fact that Schlittler’s version was even more lethal because of the way he mixed his pitches, using the curveball for the first time as the second weapon in his arsenal. He threw it for 27% of his 117 pitches, a career high. The results were overwhelming, as Boston’s hitters missed the curveball on 50% of their 16 swings. The Red Sox finished with the worst offense in the entire league against the curveball, batting just .184, and the second-worst slugging percentage at .298, only ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees will send Max Fried to the mound this Wednesday, in Game 2, who is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. They have scored one run against Fried in 11 2/3 innings this year, a solo home run by Sogard on August 29 at Yankee Stadium. If we extend it to his last five starts as a Yankee, including Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card, then Fried improves to 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 29 1/3 innings, with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks. For Boston, their plate discipline has been the best result in drawing those 11 walks against Fried, although the average number of batters reaching base against him per start is only seven. So, that will be part of Boston’s challenge, with a lineup that has hit for a poor combined offensive line of .207/.260/.331 with a .590 OPS, 36 strikeouts, and nine walks against Fried. This year, they have gone 0-for-9 against his curveball, with a 50% whiff rate. Fried does not have Schlittler’s sustained meteoric velocity, but he mixes seven pitches in his arsenal and most of them are quality offerings. None of them has allowed more than a .333 xBA this year and all of them exceed a 18% whiff rate. The formula becomes much more complicated when he faces the Red Sox, because he has dominated most of Boston’s key hitters. We can separate it into two groups, with the worst hitters and those who have hit Fried the best. Red Sox's Worst Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Wilyer Abreu L 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 0 Willson Contreras R 14 11 2 0 2 0 0 2 3 4 4 .182 .357 .364 .721 0 0 0 0 0 Jarren Duran L 13 13 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 .154 .154 .308 .462 0 0 0 0 0 Ceddanne Rafaela R 16 16 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 0 0 Adley Rutschman B 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 .000 .083 .000 .083 0 1 0 0 0 Caleb Durbin R 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Andruw Monasterio R 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 Roman Anthony L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Trevor Story R 20 19 4 1 1 0 2 5 1 7 11 .211 .250 .579 .829 0 0 0 0 0 Totals (Including Story) 93 86 11 4 5 0 2 8 6 29 22 .128 .183 .256 .439 0 1 0 0 0 Totals (Without Story) 73 67 7 3 4 0 0 3 5 22 11 .104 .164 .164 .329 0 1 0 0 0 Here we have eight of Boston’s nine starters from Game 1, and you can see that the only hitter who could add a little offensive heat is veteran Trevor Story, who has hit two of the three home runs and has five of the 12 RBIs from the entire roster. Without Story, the offensive line drops from .128/.183/.256 with a .439 OPS to .104/.164/.164 with a .329 OPS. Fried’s biggest advantage has been his combined dominance against Adley Rutschman, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Roman Anthony, who have gone 0-for-22 combined with six strikeouts. Another interesting detail here is that left-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against Fried, with eight strikeouts and no walks. Abreu is one of the team’s key hitters and, although he has not done particularly well against Fried, he is immovable. However, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy will have to choose whether he will keep Anthony(who might not even be healthy) and Duran in the starting lineup. Red Sox's Best Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Nick Sogard B 4 4 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 6 .750 .750 1.500 2.250 0 0 0 0 0 Nate Eaton R 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 .667 .800 .667 1.467 0 0 0 0 0 Jahmai Jones R 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 11 11 4 4 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 .364 .364 .364 .727 0 0 0 0 1 Connor Wong R 15 14 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 4 5 .286 .333 .357 .690 0 0 0 0 1 Totals 37 34 14 12 1 0 1 4 3 6 18 .412 .459 .529 .989 0 0 0 0 2 Nick Sogard leads the list, and the rest of the hitters are right-handed, an interesting point that reveals a certain profile advantage, so we could see one of them getting an at-bat as a pinch hitter or a starting spot. For Boston, the ultimate key will be knowing when to attack Fried at the precise moment, especially by extending their plate discipline. Right-handed hitters like Contreras, Rafaela, Story and perhaps Nate Eaton getting a starting spot will continue to carry the most weight in the offensive profile, but it is clear that the Red Sox will need quality at-bats throughout the lineup. If they can draw enough pitches to prevent Fried from going more than five innings, then the story of Game 2 could change if they face the less dominant part of the Yankees' bullpen. View full article

The Boston Red Sox's pitching staff was among the best in the American League in the second half of the season, leading the Junior Circuit in fWAR (11.5) between the rotation and bullpen, behind only the Dodgers in MLB. While the team has spent most of September with offensive problems, averaging 3.0 runs per game, the pitching has maintained the competitive pace. Although pitching will not be the Red Sox’ biggest problem heading into the Wild Card Series against the Yankees, here are some interesting trends from the second half of the season that we should keep in perspective. Brayan Bello Closed the Season On A Heater Brayan Bello is one of the pitchers who has closed the season best on the Red Sox's staff, especially since he returned from Triple-A and began pitching on July 12. In 12 of his 14 appearances during that span, opponents have scored one run or fewer against him. During this stretch, only Payton Tolle (2.3) and Sonny Gray (1.6) have recorded a better fWAR than Bello (1.2). In fact, he has been much more dominant in his last four appearances, pitching to a 0.48 ERA and 2.08 FIP with 22 strikeouts and only three walks in 18 1/3 innings. The only run he has allowed came on a home run by Jonathan Aranda on September 19 in his best outing of the entire campaign, featuring eight innings and 11 strikeouts. The key point of the dominance has been the effect of his breaking balls, which have generated more whiffs, raising their rate from 40% to 45.8%, between August and September. In addition, his opponents’ Perfect Contact rate went from 10% to 0%. His fastball is also starting to shape up; part of the process has been in the improvements to his vertical movement. After falling to 10.2 IVB in June, his worst mark, he is at 12.6 so far in September. However, although he has had a small sample, hitters are still batting .350 (7-for-20) against his fastball, including the only home run he allowed during the month. Jake Bennett’s Breaking Balls Have Stopped Fooling Hitters Jake Bennett found a better version of the sinker in this second half of the season, reducing his batting average allowed from .235 to .210 and improved his strikeout rate from 17.6% to 26.6%. But the rest of the arsenal does not show the same progression in dominance. The whiff rate of the changeup, his main weapon, fell slightly from 33.8% to 27%, while on the breaking balls, competitive swings rose to 100%. That is a signal to follow, since Bennett has gone through many innings this season surviving because of hitters’ problems identifying his pitches. His Flawed Swing rates of 18% with the cutter and 13% when he throws the curveball carry the great weight of his repertoire. Now, a key point about the contact he is allowing in this second half of the season is that opponents raised their over contact rate, increasing from 28% to 42% (i.e., how often they swung over the top of the ball). In part, other metrics show that they are getting to his breaking ball, but they are often hitting ground balls. Ranger Suárez's Fastballs Became Too Hittable The main signal with Suárez is in his fastball. Competitive swings increased from 80.9% to 94.1% in the second half, his whiffs decreased (from 12.7% to 11.8%), while his perfect contact rates practically did not change. The result has been a jump from opposing hitters against the pitch, from a .223/.255/.320 slash line to .361/.623/.412 during this second half of the season. Suárez will have to work on his command and find the corners again, since hitters of both profiles are destroying his command mistakes when the pitch hangs in the upper part of the zone. Tyron Guerrero Needs To Trust His Stuff Against Right-Handed Batters Tyron’s season has been a great story of overcoming adversity as one of the key pitchers in the Red Sox's bullpen. However, he has not been able to control his problems against right-handed hitters, allowing a .318 average after limiting them to just .205 in the first half of the season. Guerrero’s K% has also fallen dangerously from 21.4% to 13%. He has only two pitches against righties, featuring his sinker 82.2% of the time and sometimes tossing his slider in the mix. Throughout the season, the vulnerable point has been his battle to limit contact, as righties have hit .299 with a .358 slugging percentage against his sinker. The exit velocity of the 58 balls put in play is 81.9 mph. With that exit velocity, his opponents are averaging a .260 xBA, so I don’t need to tell you that they have had a little bit of luck. In contrast, Guerrero’s slider remains sharp, limiting righties to just a .125 average and .188 slugging percentage. Perhaps a better mix of his two primary offerings will yield better results (or at least combat some of that poor fortune). View full article

During their historic streak that changed the season between July 3 and August 7, the Boston Red Sox played to a 27-3 record and scored 180 runs, averaging six per game. The great comeback began when the Red Sox were playing to a 37-48 record and ended at 64-51, 13 games over .500. In just 36 days, the season took a complete turn and, from then on, the organization began thinking about the postseason. However, they have reached the end of the regular season in a very different situation. In their first 21 games of September, they have averaged 3.0 runs per game, half of what they achieved during that historic winning streak. Let’s explore here some of the most alarming trends the Red Sox offense is leaving us with at this end of the second half of the season. Wilyer Abreu Has Stopped Pulling the Ball In September Wilyer Abreu continues to make a difference as one of the Red Sox’s key hitters, especially during this second half, with a 122 wRC+ after recording a 109 mark in the first. His profile remains consistent against both sides, with a 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 vs RHP, but where he has stood out the most is in pressure situations, recording a 113 wRC+ with RISP and a 123 wRC+ in high-leverage situations. Abreu has found company in Caleb Durbin, another one of the bats that has responded best during this stretch, while Willson Contreras, the main man of the offense, has missed time on the injured list. However, the right fielder has fallen off this September, although the sample is still not enough to consider it concerning. After an August in which he hit .279/.384/.587 with seven home runs, his production fell to .225/.304/.352 this month, with just one home run on his ledger. The drop also appears in the quality of his contact, as his hard-hit rate went from 49.4% in August to 39.6% now. Abreu is seeing more pitches that prevent him from unleashing his ability to pull the ball, to the point that his Pull% fell from 43.5% to 26.4%. That may be the worst trend entering the postseason, as he's at his absolute best when slugging balls to right field. Adley Rutschman Is Failing Against Lefties and In the Clutch We know the great complement that Rutschman provides with his talent, bringing an elite bat and good defense at his best. But the backstop, even before arriving at the Red Sox at the trade deadline, was already going through many offensive problems. Right now, he is the clearest case of a devastating offensive decline. His wRC+ went from 115 in the first half of the season to 79 after the All-Star break, but the strongest signal is in his marked problems against lefties, against whom he has recorded a -21 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances (.139/.139/.194) in this second half of the season. Rutschman improves when he bats from the left side, and the hope is that he continues hitting righties as he has done in general, producing a 121 wRC+. But his problems at the plate do not end here, as he has not fulfilled his offensive role at least with the expectations the Red Sox had in the moments that define games. In high-leverage situations, he has collapsed to a -80 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances during this second half of the season, with a .067/.067/.067 slash line. The sample is small, but it could carry a lot of weight in a tense three-game Wild Card Series. Roman Anthony Has Gotten Too Aggressive The clearest signal in Roman Anthony's struggles is against lefties, precisely one of his strengths last year, when he averaged a solid .438 BABIP and 113 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. In the second half this year, he has a 42 wRC+ in 39 PAs, to go along with a .189/.231/.297 slash line, .235 wOBA and .207 BABIP. The story changes against righties, with a 133 wRC+ and .366 wOBA. The difference is enormous. As you can see in this graph, since his return at the end of August, Anthony has had a high rate of swings and misses in the outside area, especially chasing pitches in several parts outside the strike zone. At the most important moment of the season, Anthony will need to show incredible maturity to rein in his aggressiveness at the plate. Can Jarren Duran Improve On Last Year's Postseason Slump? With the unfortunate injury to Mickey Gasper, Duran’s role could be more important than perhaps expected heading into October. His second half has been better than the first, but his recovery has been far from productive in the situations of greatest pressure. He had just 35 wRC+ in 27 high-leverage plate appearances, with a .130/.259/.304 slash, and could be considered the worst hitter on the team after recording a 60 wRC+ in 68 PAs with RISP during the second half of the season. In whatever role Boston plans for Duran as a starter, he will have to change that recent history. What seems a little contradictory is that Duran’s problem has not been against lefties, against whom he has averaged a 99 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Surprised? Well, yes, it has been the righties who have limited his swing to just a 71 wRC+ and an offensive line of .214/.279/.321. Duran will need to draw on his experience for this moment, as he entered last season's postseason run in a similar state of decline. What was the result? He finished 1-for-11 with four strikeouts and no walks against the pitching of the New York Yankees in the Red Sox’s loss in the Wild Card Series. View full article

The Boston Red Sox's offense is going through one of its worst collective slumps of the entire season in terms of run production, the worst news just a few series remain before the regular season ends. It is almost certain that they will face the New York Yankees again in the Wild Card Series, as happened last year, in a series where two of the most dominant pitching staffs in the league will face each other. To determine who earns the pass to the Division Series, the offense will be a key point, especially in a best-of-three clash. In nine of their first 15 games of September, the Red Sox have gone hitless or with just one hit with runners in scoring position. They have a 3-9 record in those games and have combined for just 5-for-57 with RISP, with 18 strikeouts and 10 walks. This stretch of inconsistencies is not new; Between March and June, when the team played to a 37-47 record with a minus-10 run differential, the average number of runs scored per game was 4.0. So far in September, they have recorded 3.6. What makes the lack of timely hitting even more concerning is that the Red Sox’s success has been based precisely on taking advantage of key moments and making the most of them. This season, they have accumulated 25 wins while scoring four or fewer runs, and in only four of those games have they gone hitless with runners in scoring position. It is clear that this team can win games in many ways, but Boston’s chances of success are reduced to a minimum when they cannot get hits in RISP situations. The statistic is devastating: they have lost 24 of the 28 games in which they have been unable to get hits in that situation. To continue going deeper into this situation, I divided two key stretches of Boston’s season: a first period, when they played to a 34-8 record and the team completed the great comeback before the end of the first half of the season, between June 19 and August 7, and a second stretch from August 8 until now. I chose the offensive statistics only in high-leverage situations, and it turns out that, since August 7, the Red Sox have posted the worst BABIP in the league (.184), and have fallen to 29th in batting average with just .180, line drive percentage (12.0%) and hard-hit rate (25.0%). On the other hand, while the team was on its winning streak in the first period, the Red Sox led the league in slugging (.606), ISO (.269), placed second in OPS (1.001) and wRC+ (167), and third with the highest contact rate against pitches in the strike zone (91.5%). PERIOD PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+ Soft% Hard% O-Contact% Z-Contact% JUN 19 - AUG 7 130 10.8% 16.2% .337 .395 .606 1.001 .269 .349 .411 167 9.5% 40.0% 44.4% 91.5% SINCE AUG 8 165 9.7% 20.6% .180 .272 .374 .646 .194 .184 .272 75 17.9% 25.0% 63.3% 88.8% Here, we can reach more interesting conclusions by comparing both periods for the Red Sox in high-leverage situations. In this second stretch, the loss of impact and production has been evident. Strikeouts have gone up by 4.4 percentage points, which has been joined by a higher amount in soft-contact percentage (8.4% difference), along with the 15-point drop in hard-hit rate. Yes, the rate of contacts outside the strike zone has risen by 18.9%, but it has not been able to result in hard contact that generates production. Although the offensive samples are smaller when we analyze the hitters individually, the chaos is perfectly illustrated. Hitter PA Jun 19–Aug 7 PA Since Aug 8 Key Change Ceddanne Rafaela 14 .429 AVG / .429 OBP / .929 SLG / 1.357 OPS / 278 wRC+ 14 .100 / .143 / .100 / .243 OPS / -74 wRC+ -1.114 OPS / -352 wRC+ Wilyer Abreu 17 .300 / .385 / .900 / 1.285 OPS / 209 wRC+ 12 .188 / .235 / .375 / .610 OPS / 62 wRC+ -.675 OPS / -147 wRC+ Caleb Durbin 13 .500 / .600 / .750 / 1.350 OPS / 278 wRC+ 17 .100 / .250 / .400 / .650 OPS / 52 wRC+ -.700 OPS / -226 wRC+ Andruw Monasterio 7 .444 / .500 / 1.111 / 1.611 OPS / 333 wRC+ 14 .000 / .000 / .000 / .000 OPS / -100 wRC+ -1.611 OPS / -433 wRC+ Masataka Yoshida 12 .273 / .333 / .455 / .788 OPS / 117 wRC+ 4 .000 / .000 / .000 / .000 OPS / -100 wRC+ -.788 OPS / -217 wRC+ Jarren Duran 11 .250 / .286 / .250 / .536 OPS / 22 wRC+ 17 .143 / .250 / .429 / .679 OPS / 65 wRC+ +.143 OPS / 43 wRC+ Willson Contreras 5 .500 / .714 / .750 / 1.464 OPS / 301 wRC+ 22 .182 / .357 / .455 / .812 OPS / 132 wRC+ -.652 OPS / -169 wRC+ Nick Sogard 14 .333 / .500 / .333 / .833 OPS / 155 wRC+ 16 .118 / .250 / .353 / .603 OPS / 67 wRC+ -.230 OPS / -88 wRC+ What I like most about these samples is that the number of at-bats adjusts to a similar sample of at-bats in any short postseason series. The collapse has been so significant that only Jarren Duran has a slight improvement with 143 points of OPS and 43 points of wRC+, although the mark of 65 since August 8 remains mediocre. At the same time, the numbers during the winning streak provide a little encouragement, and they marked a moment when the Red Sox seemed unstoppable. It is clear that they can do it again. But this is not about some hitters getting hot; the offense as a whole needs to function as it did in its best version of the season, building runs, running the bases intelligently, and connecting the key hits in clutch situations. View full article