A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

That doesn't leave much to argue about. CERA may not be relevant, but the mindset of pitchers is crucial and it can vary not only from catcher to catcher, but also from inning to inning.

 

It's why we threw David Ross into the 2013 WS.

[moonslav59]

It's why we threw David Ross into the 2013 WS.

 

Here's another case that may support my claims on catchers getting the most out of pitchers:

 

Josh Beckett, 2009: VTek was his personal caddy all year.

 

3.17 CERA w VTek (185 IP)

7.16 CERA w VMart (16 IP)

10.32 CERA w Kottaras (11 IP)

Yes, unbalanced and small sample sizes, so what does Tito do?

 

He starts VMart with Beckett in the playoffs to "improve the offense," and this happenes:

 

You want small sample sizes?

 

6.2 IP 4 ER and a loss and early exit for the Sox that playoff season.

 

[notin]

1. SSS

2. Vaz catches Sale vs O's and Plaw catches Sale vs Toronto, CERA doesn't take into account opponents, does it? Is there a CERA+?

 

Fair enough.

 

Although if opponents matter, the Toronto pitching needs to be even more suspect since they never have to face Toronto hitters. And that Tiger staff does pretty well considering they’re the only staff in the AL that doesn’t get to face the Tiger lineup…

[notin]

It's why we threw David Ross into the 2013 WS.

 

I thought it was because his beard liked the funniest…

[mvp 78]

I thought it was because his beard liked the funniest…

 

Like the funniest what?

[mvp 78]

Fair enough.

 

Although if opponents matter, the Toronto pitching needs to be even more suspect since they never have to face Toronto hitters. And that Tiger staff does pretty well considering they’re the only staff in the AL that doesn’t get to face the Tiger lineup…

 

They have to pitch in Buffalo though.

[moonslav59]

This is not the correct way to use CERA, either, but for those who think overall CERA tells a better story, consider these numbers over multiple seasons.

 

2014-2021 Red Sox pitchers with Vaz and back ups sorted by most IP with Sox since 2014 (all Sox pitchers with 280+ IP since 2014 w Sox):

 

CERA/OPS Against (IP)

 

Sale

2.51/.622 AJ P (226)

2.79/.578 Leon (436)

4.61/.762 Vaz (84)

(No catcher on the CWS had a CERA worse than 3.53)

 

ERod

 

3.78/.778 Hanigan (50)

4.05/.700 Leon (118)

4.23/.723 Vaz (566)

4.44/.692 Swihart (75)

 

Porcello

4.19/.728 Leon (576)

4.93/.800 Swihart (122)

4.96/.794 Vaz (211)

5.38/.831 Holaday (55)

(Nobody on Detroit with over 30 IP w Porcello had a worse CERA than 4.43)

 

Price

2.96/.647 Leon (204)

4.27/.738 Vaz (360)

(All other catchers with 30+ IP with Price had a CERA better than Vaz's. One guy, Gregg Zaun with only 43 IP had one close at 4.19. Everyone with more than 100 IP had a CERA or 3.61 or better.)

 

Eovaldi

2.66/.419 Wong (20)

3.54/.657 Plawecki (69)

4.30/.765 Vaz (147)

4.53/.735 Leon (44)

4.85/.421 Salty (124)

 

Buccholz

2.83/.642 VMart (241)

3.01/.646 Leon (155)

3.79/.629 Lava (36)

3.95/.737 Salty (207)

4.44/.705 Vaz (130)

4.68/.683 D Ross (73)

5.12/.801 VTek (118)

5.63/.836 AJ P (62)

Others: Alex Avila 1.55/.587 in 52 IP

 

Barnes

3.69/.624 Vaz (197)

3.83/.697 Leon (99)

4.50/.803 Swihart (42)

 

Pomeranz

3.32/.721 Holaday (41)

3.92/.745 Vaz (198)

6.02/.934 Leon (46)

 

Kelly

(Y Molina 2.81/.721 in 176 IP)

3.23/.619 Vaz (98)

3.94/.580 D Ross (32)

4.48/.698 Swihart (74)

4.63/.785 Leon (56)

4.83/.761 Hanigan (91)

 

Wright

2.94/.611 Hanigan (95)

3.49/.700 Vaz (101)

4.06/.716 Swihart (71)

5.83/.935 Leon (59)

 

Some sample sizes are rather small with some catchers and some are highly unbalanced. Some are during different parts of a pitcher's career, but the numbers astound me every time I look them up.

 

The totals:

 

10 top pitchers by IP

 

Leading in CERA:

2 Leon

2 Han

2 Vaz (Barnes & Joe Kelly- not the biggest sample size pitchers)

1 by AJP, Holaday, VMart, Plawecki

 

OPS Against:

4 Leon

1 Hanigan, Holaday Lava, Salty, Ross & Vaz

 

Last place with 100+ IP by 2+ pitchers:

CERA

5 Vaz

1 VTEk (w Buch)

1 Leon (w Barnes)

 

OPS

4 Vaz

1 Swihart (Porcello)

1 VTek (Buch)

1 Leon (Barnes)

 

Out of the 9 pitchers who had 80+ IP with 2 or more catchers, Vaz finished last or second to last in 7 out of the 9 cases in CERA and 6 of 9 in OPS Against.

 

Only Buch and Barnes were in Vaz's favor.

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Like the funniest what?

 

It made him look like a middle-aged science teacher as opposed to a professional athlete…

[mvp 78]

It made him look like a middle-aged science teacher as opposed to a professional athlete…

 

As someone who has had a Smith Brothers beard from time to time, I liked his.

[moonslav59]

Marwin's Theory of De-Evolution:

 

Survival of the manager's favorites.

[oldtimer]

Marwin's Theory of De-Evolution:

 

Survival of the manager's favorites.

 

Maybe speaking Spanish is worth points.

[moonslav59]

Maybe speaking Spanish is worth points.

 

Yes, when he leaves baseball to be a bilingual teacher.

[Key2Delock]

The upcoming schedule gives the Red Sox a chance to avoid losing more ground in the playoff chase. They’re about to play 12 of their next 15 games against the Orioles, Rangers, Twins and Guardians (and three in the Bronx, including a doubleheader) before a four-game series on the road against the Rays.

 

The Rays have 10 of their next 15 games against the Twins and Orioles with three at home against the White Sox and two on the road against the Phillies. The Yankees have some tougher games coming up with three on the road against the White Sox (including tonight’s Field of Dreams Game), two at Atlanta and four at Oakland.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Prediction, if Boston doesn't make the playoffs: Years from now, when fans remember the 2021 Red Sox -- 23 games over .500 with 59 games left -- the poster boy for cautionary tales of all-time trade deadline failures will be Hansel Robles.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

In crucial game 3 against the Rays (a two game swing one way or the other), Cordero and Gonzalez went a combined 0 for 6 with 5 strikeouts. If you add Duran to the mix, the 3 players combined for an 0 for 10 with 8 strikeouts.

 

We are now 1-2 weeks removed from the trade deadline and the Red Sox still have automatic outs in their lineup with Cordero, Dalbec, and Gonzalez. To make matters worse, Duran is getting off to a slow start in his major league career. When you put it all together, the Red Sox have some black holes in their lineup night after night. Might as well let the pitcher hit.

 

The Red Sox traded for Robles and yet couldn't add more depth to their position players? The Red Sox totally misjudged this team and now it is too late to do anything about it. Brilliant.

Edited August 12, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[User Name]

CERA is a really bad stat.

[oldtimer]

In crucial game 3 against the Rays (a two game swing one way or the other), Cordero and Gonzalez went a combined 0 for 6 with 5 strikeouts. If you add Duran to the mix, the 3 players combined for an 0 for 10 with 8 strikeouts.

 

We are now 1-2 weeks removed from the trade deadline and the Red Sox still have automatic outs in their lineup with Cordero, Dalbec, and Gonzalez. To make matters worse, Duran is getting off to a slow start in his major league career. When you put it all together, the Red Sox have some black holes in their lineup night after night. Might as well let the pitcher hit.

 

The Red Sox traded for Robles and yet couldn't add more depth to their position players? The Red Sox totally misjudged this team and now it is too late to do anything about it. Brilliant.

 

Cora was faced with an issue with Houck, who has trouble going more than 2 times through the lineup at this point in his career. He didn't make a pitching move early enough because he had little to go to.

 

On the other hand, there are now and have been complete dead spots in the lineup. Losing Arroyo by trying to solve our 1st base issue and losing Verdugo for paternity leave left little room to spark the offense. Munoz remains in Worcester as perhaps the only other contact hitter they might turn to. For some reason, despite talking roster shakeup, Cora and Bloom have not attempted to fight for these games against the Rays. We were fortunate to get one when the Rays pitching was horrible.

 

The Rays and perhaps the Yankees and Jays are just better than us now. We will get Schwaber and Verdugo back soon. Arroyo may be back in a week. apparently Munoz will not be brought up or he would have been by now. Maybe we can compete with those players. I have my doubts. Bloom's trade deadline performance was poor and Cora has seemed indecisive. Don't know the underlying reasons for what has happened but clearly our big lead has evaporated in 2 weeks and that is a fact.

[moonslav59]

I’m thinking, next year, Whitlock is moved to the rotation and Houck takes Ottavino or Barnes slot in the pen.

 

We sign an aging, but quality SPer and go with this:

 

Sale

FA

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

Barnes

Houck

FA

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Brazier

Valdez

Seabold

Rios

[a700hitter]

I’m thinking, next year, Whitlock is moved to the rotation and Houck takes Ottavino or Barnes slot in the pen.

 

We sign an aging, but quality SPer and go with this:

 

Sale

FA

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

Barnes

Houck

FA

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Brazier

Valdez

Seabold

Rios

Houck should be in the 22 rotation.

 

And Brasier should find a new line of work.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

An excellent article, Tomase: Five Sox players we've seen enough of this season.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/five-red-sox-players-we-dont-need-see-rest-season

 

Also, the video is interesting too--Lou Merloni has some strong opinions on Bloom's work at the trade deadline.

[oldtimer]

I’m thinking, next year, Whitlock is moved to the rotation and Houck takes Ottavino or Barnes slot in the pen.

 

We sign an aging, but quality SPer and go with this:

 

Sale

FA

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

Barnes

Houck

FA

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Brazier

Valdez

Seabold

Rios

 

You are talking about next year, probably because we haven't just stumbled but are in a free fall this season. We are there because we have had little movement by management to try and correct issues that were obvious with this team. Maybe it did make sense to stay below the CBT this year and there has been a salary drag with Price, Pedey and a little of Beni's dead money and a big slice of Sale's contract going into 6 weeks remaining of limited use.

 

But you can also see that we have gone far too long with Gonzalez, Cordero, Dalbec and Santana. We have also found bad replacement pitching to fill a lack of depth with Robles and Austin. Cora speaks of shaking things up but nothing much happens. Perez and Richards have been worse than expected and Vaz isn't hitting.

 

So, we are in a position of trying to compete for a wild card spot this year and are bring Verdugo and Schwaber in soon and Arroyo when he finally heals. Sale will finally make a start this weekend. Surely Munoz should have been brought up earlier and still should be. Even so, we at best are struggling for a wild card spot.

 

Maybe you are right to start to talk about 2022, but unless Bloom and Cora get their acts together, what makes you think we can make a splash then?

[notin]

In crucial game 3 against the Rays (a two game swing one way or the other), Cordero and Gonzalez went a combined 0 for 6 with 5 strikeouts. If you add Duran to the mix, the 3 players combined for an 0 for 10 with 8 strikeouts.

 

We are now 1-2 weeks removed from the trade deadline and the Red Sox still have automatic outs in their lineup with Cordero, Dalbec, and Gonzalez. To make matters worse, Duran is getting off to a slow start in his major league career. When you put it all together, the Red Sox have some black holes in their lineup night after night. Might as well let the pitcher hit.

 

The Red Sox traded for Robles and yet couldn't add more depth to their position players? The Red Sox totally misjudged this team and now it is too late to do anything about it. Brilliant.

 

The Sox needed pitching help at the deadline. Overhauling the bench was a much, much lower priority…

[moonslav59]

Houck should be in the 22 rotation.

 

And Brasier should find a new line of work.

 

I've never been one to buy into the third time through the line-up rants, and sometimes I wonder if pitchers read about it so much, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, but with Houck, he might be better as our long man- taking Whitlock's role.

 

We need a FA SP'er, and Sale, Eovaldi and Pivetta look like they have slots for 2022. I'm fine with giving Houck a shot, but I like Whitlock better as a starter and Houck better as a RP'er, next year.

 

I'll wait to judge Brasier after we see what he does over the next 6+ weeks.

[moonslav59]

An excellent article, Tomase: Five Sox players we've seen enough of this season.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/five-red-sox-players-we-dont-need-see-rest-season

 

Also, the video is interesting too--Lou Merloni has some strong opinions on Bloom's work at the trade deadline.

 

I couldn't disagree more with that video... "Maybe, Cashman had to give up more because the other teams paid the salaries..."

 

"Maybe?" LOL!

 

[Bellhorn04]

CERA is a really bad stat.

 

Yeah, it's not even a real stat, is it? It's a number you can derive.

 

At the same time, we do know that some pitchers do better with some catchers.

[Bellhorn04]

I've never been one to buy into the third time through the line-up rants, and sometimes I wonder if pitchers read about it so much, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, but with Houck, he might be better as our long man- taking Whitlock's role.

 

Third time through rants have to be based on third time through stats.

 

Rants lie, stats don't-or a lot less, anyway.

[moonslav59]

Somehow, we are still one up in the loss column after going 3-13 over the last 16 games.

 

The updated standings for the AL:

 

70-45 TBR

68-46 HOU

68-48 CWS

67-48 OAK WC 1

66-51 BOS WC2 (-2.0 from WC1 and -5.0 ALE lead)

 

63-52 NYY -2.0 WC2

62-52 TOR -2.5 WC2

61-55 SEA -4.5 WC2

 

Perhaps a bright spot awaits us. We play 3 vs BAL, have a day off and then play @NYY for 3 games in 2 days, then another day off before coming home to play 3 v Tex & 3 v MN, then 3 @CLE before our next showdown vs TBR for 7 of the next 10 games.

 

The Yanks do not get a day off before the doubleheader on Tuesday. After today's weird day off (on a Friday), the Yanks play 12 games in 11 days.

2@CWS

1 v LAA

3 v BOS

4 v MN

2@ ATL

 

day off

 

4@ OAK

3@ LAA

[moonslav59]

Third time through rants have to be based on third time through stats.

 

Rants lie, stats don't-or a lot less, anyway.

 

I get it, and I'm buying into it, now, with Houck.

 

Do you think it's possible Houck reads about his horrific third time through stats and it's in the back of his mind, when that first guy gets up the third time?

 

I think he let up 3 straight hits, yesterday once the top of the order got up the third time.

 

(I'm not as stubborn as I seem. lol)

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's not even a real stat, is it? It's a number you can derive.

 

At the same time, we do know that some pitchers do better with some catchers.

 

And, many pitchers rave about how one specific catcher helps them, immensely.

 

Others, like maybe ERod, it doesn't seem to matter much.

[Bellhorn04]

I get it, and I'm buying into it, now, with Houck.

 

Do you think it's possible Houck reads about his horrific third time through stats and it's in the back of his mind, when that first guy gets up the third time?

 

I suppose it's possible, but it seems like wishful thinking.