A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

Anyways , happy days are here again. Even the naysayers are somewhat satisfied. And all it took was three games against the woefully inept Orioles . Now it's all seashells and balloons .

 

Wins lift the mood no matter who they come against. Getting Sale and Schwarber on the field is also nice. The Rays losing 2 out of 3 to the Twinkies doesn't hurt either.

 

But it's an emotional roller coaster.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure why it still amazes me how quickly attitudes can change on this site.

 

I think it's the nature of the game. Even the best teams lose 60-70 times, or 10-12 times a month. There's a lot of suffering over the course of a season.

 

But some fans are certainly a lot more knee-jerky than others.

[moonslav59]

Wins lift the mood no matter who they come against. Getting Sale and Schwarber on the field is also nice. The Rays losing 2 out of 3 to the Twinkies doesn't hurt either.

 

But it's an emotional roller coaster.

 

We all knew Sale and Schwarber were coming. Seeing them do well out of the gate helps somewhat, but we all knew.

 

We knew or should have known we had already played the toughest part of our schedule and other contenders had their toughest stretches going forward.

 

We all know even the best teams go through tough stretches- sometimes prolonged ones and or very bad ones.

 

I get the emotions, and the game threads bring out the worst of them, but how many times do some posters have to be "shocked" or "surprised" by the fact that players and teams don't always continue playing exactly like they have over the previous 7 to 14 to even 30+ day stretches?

 

When we lose, we do look like crap. Because we look like crap, we cannot expect to ever win again.

 

How many times does this line of reasoning have to go wrong, before people stop repeating it over and over?

 

I guess that is what still surprises me. Not learning from repeated examples.

 

[harmony]

Team Records:

 

Sox vs .500+ teams:

42-35

Oakland

22-31

 

Sox vs .500- teams

26-16

Oakland

46-18

 

Tell me who has played the tougher schedule?

 

The unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox a disproportionate number of games against the AL East clubs that are more likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the weaker NL East.

 

The unbalanced schedule gives the Athletics a disproportionate number of games against the AL West clubs that are less likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the stronger NL West.

 

The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) against AL West teams and AL East clubs are a combined 64-71 (.474) against AL West teams.

 

Indeed the unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox the edge over the Athletics in the Wild Card race.

[moonslav59]

The unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox a disproportionate number of games against the AL East clubs that are more likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the weaker NL East.

 

The unbalanced schedule gives the Athletics a disproportionate number of games against the AL West clubs that are less likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the stronger NL West.

 

The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) against AL West teams and AL East clubs are a combined 64-71 (.474) against AL West teams.

 

Indeed the unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox the edge over the Athletics in the Wild Card race.

 

I'm starting to lose the great respect I had for you, harmony.

 

So, the A's play the NL West and we play the NL East. That does not outweigh the fact that we play the Rays, Yanks and Jays as much as the A's play the Astros, Mariners and Angels. Part of the schedule being unbalanced is based on playing way more games against your own division than others- not just inter league differences.

The Sox have played 77 games vs 500+ teams. The A's just 53.

The Sox have played 42 games vs sub .500 teams. The A's 64.

 

How can anyone skew that to say the Sox benefited from the unbalanced schedule?

 

You keep posting AL East vs AL West records like they matter more than everything else. The fact is, they matter very little.

 

The only AL East team that could possibly have had a sub .500 record by playing the NL West not the NL East is Toronto, who is currently 8 games over .500. Are you suggesting that unbalanced schedule would have flipped them to sub .500?

Edited August 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[harmony]

I'm losing the great respect I had for you, harmony.

 

So, the A's play the NL West and we play the NL East. That does not outweigh the fact that we play the Rays, Yanks and Jays as much as the A's play the Astros, Mariners and Angels. Part of the schedule being unbalanced is based on playing way more games against your own division than others- not just inter league differences.

The Sox have played 77 games vs 500+ teams. The A's just 53.

The Sox have played 42 games vs sub .500 teams. The A's 64.

 

How can anyone skew that to say the Sox benefited from the unbalanced schedule?

 

You keep posting AL East vs AL West records like they matter more than everything else. The fact is, they matter very little.

Citing records against teams above and below .500 is less meaningful if the opponents' records are influenced by the unbalanced schedule that gives the AL East the easier interleague schedule.

 

The NL West has a 43-33 (.566) record against the AL West, which has a 71-64 (.526) record against the AL East, which in turn has a 50-27 (.649) record against the NL East. Those significant differences suggest that the AL East's interleague records would be far worse if the AL East played the NL West (and the AL West would have a better interleague record against the NL East).

[moonslav59]

Citing records against teams above and below .500 is less meaningful if the opponents' records are influenced by the unbalanced schedule that gives the AL East the easier interleague schedule.

 

The NL West has a 43-33 (.566) record against the AL West, which has a 71-64 (.526) record against the AL East, which in turn has a 50-27 (.649) record against the NL East. Those significant differences suggest that the AL East's interleague records would be far worse if the AL East played the NL West (and the AL West would have a better interleague record against the NL East).

 

Not worse enough to make TOR & NYY sub .500 teams.

 

The A's have clearly had an easier record, so far. They still have SFG and CWS to play... both not in their division.

 

Once the whole season is done, let's take another look, but I seriously doubt the AL E playing the NLW instead of the NLW would flip teams to losing recordsor ALW teams to winning ones.

 

Why do mutual records vs ALC and NLC central not count in the equation?

 

[dgalehouse]

Wins lift the mood no matter who they come against. Getting Sale and Schwarber on the field is also nice. The Rays losing 2 out of 3 to the Twinkies doesn't hurt either.

 

But it's an emotional roller coaster.

 

A lot of the ups and downs of a season are schedule related. The Sox presently are in a soft spot in the schedule .

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not sure if anyone on the forum reported on this already, but the Red Sox claimed Travis Shaw and he will be with the team on Tuesday. I would expect Shaw to replace Cordero?

 

Shaw has greater versatility than Cordero and can play 1b, 2b, and 3b (I'm not sure about the OF) whereas Cordero was just a LF/1b guy. Shaw has had a weird career, I'm not sure what happened to him, but he hasn't hit since 2018. Still, I'll take him over Cordero who has never hit at the major league level.

 

If Shaw could rediscover his 2017/2018 stroke, the Red Sox will have a solution for 1b. I just don't know what to think of a player who hasn't hit since 2018, what are the chances he magically rediscovers it?

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure if anyone report on this already, but the Red Sox claimed Travis Shaw and he will be with the team on Tuesday. I would think that Shaw replaces Cordero?

 

Shaw has greater versatility than Cordero and can play 1b, 2b, and 3b (I'm not sure about the OF) whereas Cordero was just a LF/1b guy. Shaw has had a weird career, I'm not sure what happened to him, but he hasn't hit since 2018. Still, I'll take him over Cordero who has never hit at the major league level.

 

If Shaw could rediscover his 2017/2018 stroke, the Red Sox will have a solution for 1b. I just don't know what to think of a player who hasn't hit since 2018, what are the chances he magically rediscovers it?

 

Right now, he's taking Taylor's roster slot, and since we have 3 of the next 8 days off, maybe we go with one less pitcher for 8-10 days.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta: 0.75 ERA since August 2nd.

E- Rod: 1.10 ERA since July 30th.

Eovaldi: 1.29 ERA since August 7th.

Houck: 2.21 ERA since April 19th (2.08 career).

C Sale: 3.60 ERA since April 1st.

[Larry Cook]

Pivetta: 0.75 ERA since August 2nd.

E- Rod: 1.10 ERA since July 30th.

Eovaldi: 1.29 ERA since August 7th.

Houck: 2.21 ERA since April 19th (2.08 career).

C Sale: 3.60 ERA since April 1st.

 

Beat our rotation has looked since April.

[Nick]

With the signing of Travis Shaw, we can finally close the book on Santana hopefully.

 

We're tired of waiting. Santana's smooth swing has not been productive. It's time for Santana to move on. Go home and chill out. All I ever wanted was repeat of his 2019 season with the Rangers. Waiting is over.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

With the signing of Travis Shaw, we can finally close the book on Santana hopefully.

 

We're tired of waiting. Santana's smooth swing has not been productive. It's time for Santana to move on. Go home and chill out. All I ever wanted was repeat of his 2019 season with the Rangers. Waiting is over.

 

Who's next after Santana?

 

Andriese?

[moonslav59]

Citing records against teams above and below .500 is less meaningful if the opponents' records are influenced by the unbalanced schedule that gives the AL East the easier interleague schedule.

 

The NL West has a 43-33 (.566) record against the AL West, which has a 71-64 (.526) record against the AL East, which in turn has a 50-27 (.649) record against the NL East. Those significant differences suggest that the AL East's interleague records would be far worse if the AL East played the NL West (and the AL West would have a better interleague record against the NL East).

 

Then, explain this:

 

NL West vs AL West: 43-33 (.566)

 

NL West vs NL East: 59-51 (.536)

 

Kinda makes the NL East look better than the AL West, right?

 

[moonslav59]

With the signing of Travis Shaw, we can finally close the book on Santana hopefully.

 

The book was likely closed, even without Shaw.

[moonslav59]

3 way tie for 3rd best record in AL.

 

68-50 CWS

68-50 OAK WC

69-51 BOS (.001 down in win%) WC

 

WC race

-2.5 NYY 65-52

-4.5 TOR 63-54

-5.5 SEA 63-56

 

OAK goes to CWS Monday

NYY plays LAA for 1 before playing BOS (2 on Tue and 1 on Wed)

TBR plays BAL Mon

HOU @ KCR Mon

TOR @ WSH Tue

SEA @ TEX Tue

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

I do appreciate moonslav's numbers on where the Sox are now and the teams/series for the remaining 42 games.

 

My very simple take is that pitching is going to make the difference for better or for worse. Right now the new rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Sale, ERod, and Houck looks pretty good to me, but the bullpen is frightening. Ottavino and Barnes to me are suspect, and those two have pitched in the 8th and 9th innings in close games, especially when the Sox had a lead. Taylor has been pretty good too, and he is on the COVID IL. Same goes for Hernandez--right oblique strain, out until September. So who's left left who's been effective? Sawamura and Whitlock.

 

I am exaggerating (above para) of course, but I am worried because the bullpen has been a vital strength this season.

[moonslav59]

I do appreciate moonslav's numbers on where the Sox are now and the teams/series for the remaining 42 games.

 

My very simple take is that pitching is going to make the difference for better or for worse. Right now the new rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Sale, ERod, and Houck looks pretty good to me, but the bullpen is frightening. Ottavino and Barnes to me are suspect, and those two have pitched in the 8th and 9th innings in close games, especially when the Sox had a lead. Taylor has been pretty good too, and he is on the COVID IL. Same goes for Hernandez--right oblique strain, out until September. So who's left left who's been effective? Sawamura and Whitlock.

 

I am exaggerating (above para) of course, but I am worried because the bullpen has been a vital strength this season.

 

These things seem to go in cycles. Recently, we were worried about the rotation or the bats.

 

Maybe the pens picks it back up. They’ve actually been the most consistently good part of our team, this year.

 

Keep the faith.

 

If can get all 3 areas doing well, watch out!

[illinoisredsox]

The book was likely closed, even without Shaw.

 

Santana will probably go from the off 40man; Cordero sent down off the active roster?

[Hugh2]

What I find encouraging is how well the starting rotation has been lately, and they picked it back up a whole week before Sale got back.

 

The wine didn’t come because seemingly the entire offense was slumping. That appears to be over, yes it was against the Orioles, but we now guys like Xander, JDM, Renfroe, Verdugo are good hitter and we just added Schwarber.

 

If the offense can score more runs and starters can start going 6+ consistently that’s going to rest your pen, and that may give them enough juice down the stretch.

 

Big series coming up.

[moonslav59]

Santana will probably go from the off 40man; Cordero sent down off the active roster?

 

That's my guess, but I have been off quite a bit.

 

I was projecting Wilson being DFA'd for quite a while, and when I stopped predicting it, he was then DFA'd.

[notin]

Santana will probably go from the off 40man; Cordero sent down off the active roster?

 

For who? Shaw?

[moonslav59]

For who? Shaw?

 

Shaw takes Taylors spot for a while, but when Taylor returns, yes- for Shaw.

[notin]

Shaw takes Taylors spot for a while, but when Taylor returns, yes- for Shaw.

 

Does Shaw bring anything?

 

Right now, with Taylor and Darwinzon out, the only lefty in the Sox pen is Austin Davis. I would think Alex Claudio or Steve Gonsalves would be a bigger need. Especially now that the Yankees have Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in the lineup..

[Bellhorn04]

Does Shaw bring anything?

 

Right now, with Taylor and Darwinzon out, the only lefty in the Sox pen is Austin Davis.

 

I suppose Martin Perez also counts.

[moonslav59]

Does Shaw bring anything?

 

Right now, with Taylor and Darwinzon out, the only lefty in the Sox pen is Austin Davis. I would think Alex Claudio or Steve Gonsalves would be a bigger need. Especially now that the Yankees have Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in the lineup..

 

I'm thinking with 3 days off in the next 8, we go with an extra position player.

 

Shaw may be a late inning defensive replacement for Schwarber at 1B.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I do appreciate moonslav's numbers on where the Sox are now and the teams/series for the remaining 42 games.

 

My very simple take is that pitching is going to make the difference for better or for worse. Right now the new rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Sale, ERod, and Houck looks pretty good to me, but the bullpen is frightening. Ottavino and Barnes to me are suspect, and those two have pitched in the 8th and 9th innings in close games, especially when the Sox had a lead. Taylor has been pretty good too, and he is on the COVID IL. Same goes for Hernandez--right oblique strain, out until September. So who's left left who's been effective? Sawamura and Whitlock.

 

I am exaggerating (above para) of course, but I am worried because the bullpen has been a vital strength this season.

 

 

Yeah I'm in this camp as well. As I've been saying for a month I just don't trust Ottavino, and yesterday was another example of why. This is a very deep pen with a lot of options but the back end, the most critical innings, are a concern to me.

[notin]

I suppose Martin Perez also counts.

 

Does he? Seen him pitch lately?

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah I'm in this camp as well. As I've been saying for a month I just don't trust Ottavino' date=' and yesterday was another example of why. This is a very deep pen with a lot of options but the back end, the most critical innings, are a concern to me.[/quote']

 

The Red Sox said that Whitlock will now sometimes be used on back-to-back days.

 

I'd say Whitlock is very close to being the setup guy over Ottavino.