A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

30 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I live outside of DC.  We missed out on all the greatness. Worst stretch I've been through, even Maryland Basketball sucks now.  But for most of my life I could always count on the Red Sox to be good.  Not now.  

The John Wall injury set DMV area NBA basketball back 15 years.  Just brutal.

I was born in 84, so I suspect you have some years on me.  But I remember growing up in the 90s and even into the 2000s Terrapins basketball was a very good program.  Hope they get back.  Hard in the NIL days to compete with the big fish in the Big 10.  Teams like Michigan, State, Purdue have millions to throw around in NIL money.  As a Rhode Islander, I was a little upset when my boy Fatts Russel transferred from URI to Maryland, but Im a Providence College season ticket holder so only a fan of URI when they have more of a chance to make noise than PC, which is rare.  The last time that happened though, was Fatts Russell freshman year and he was really good.  I think hes doing well playing somewhere overseas.

Honorable mention: Len Bias.

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

Conversation might be easier after the way the story has started the season. The tougher but more important conversation for tomorrow is with Durbin. It needs to go like this…..

“Hey man on my way to ballpark today I had a self talk conversation, and it was Should I have Sonny Gray hit tomorrow? And have Durbin the guy I get a DH for?” 

[bkzwhitestrican]

It's only two series so far, but Fangraphs has already shifted their preseason prediction for Boston from finishing 2nd in the ALE with 85 wins to finishing 4th with 83 wins. Probably more indicative of how tight they think the ALE will be this season that 2 wins would swing their position in the division that much. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

1. See that MVP, I told you he wasnt talking about Masa.

2. Again, the big mistake is we should have further prioritized defensive alignment over offense?'

Duran and Abreu are both too good of hitters on a team with not enough good hitters to be going in a trade to improve the offense.  These deals that move either of them feel more like optimizing the roster positionally, which I dont think is the same thing as improving the offense.  

Marte/Neto would have helped over Durbin, but I dont think either Duran or Abreu should have went in those trades.  We had plenty of other chips especially if we didnt cut into our trade-chip resources to bring in Contraras, Durbin, Oviedo.

We didnt get any of the big fish on offense.  Like Seager, Schwarber, Marte.  I did find myself defending Contreras to a couple friends last night who are already asking for his head (but not Durbin's).  I also dont love the bench makeup.  Im sorry but this team doesnt have enough bats to plug in IKF, but hes our next man up on infield (including first base)?  And IKF is the Cora crush.  Hes going to get a lot of at-bats, and thats going to put even more pressure on the top of the order.   Pitching and DEEEEEEEFENSE junkies got the team they wanted.  And now we're looking at a grind of a season but its way too early with 0 Fenway games played to think that the offense is toast.  And it isnt toast.  But it isnt toast because of guys you keep coming back to as guys we should trade.  And I find myself disagreeing with that even though I understand youre coming from from a belief that Neto/Paredes/Marte > Durbin at infield is a bigger offensive upgrade than Duran > Masa at DH....But 1) not true for Paredes and 2) I dont think Neto was ever actually available and like Marte, if available - there were ways to get him while leaving the strength of our offense (3 corner outfielders) intact.

The trade was PW, Bello, Harrison, and a prospect thats not the 6'7 CF for Marte or even Seager.  We didnt need Oviedo, Gray and from this group could have done better than Durbin.
 

Nice post.

Although Ceddane is my current favorite Sox player, I did mention that trading him for a big bat infielder might make more sense. Of course, more players/prospects would have needed to be added to get someone like Neto or KMarte. (Perhaps we could have included some players used in the Durbin, Oviedo or Gray trades, too.)

I'm not a big Masa fan, but trading Ceddane and using Masa/Romy at DH would not have been a step down on offense. Adding KMarte or Neto would have been a big boost to the O and not hurt the D at their position. (We'd be worse at CF D, but the plus on O would be worth it.)

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

1. See that MVP, I told you he wasnt talking about Masa.

2. Again, the big mistake is we should have further prioritized defensive alignment over offense?'

Duran and Abreu are both too good of hitters on a team with not enough good hitters to be going in a trade to improve the offense.  These deals that move either of them feel more like optimizing the roster positionally, which I dont think is the same thing as improving the offense.  

Marte/Neto would have helped over Durbin, but I dont think either Duran or Abreu should have went in those trades.  We had plenty of other chips especially if we didnt cut into our trade-chip resources to bring in Contraras, Durbin, Oviedo.

We didnt get any of the big fish on offense.  Like Seager, Schwarber, Marte.  I did find myself defending Contreras to a couple friends last night who are already asking for his head (but not Durbin's).  I also dont love the bench makeup.  Im sorry but this team doesnt have enough bats to plug in IKF, but hes our next man up on infield (including first base)?  And IKF is the Cora crush.  Hes going to get a lot of at-bats, and thats going to put even more pressure on the top of the order.   Pitching and DEEEEEEEFENSE junkies got the team they wanted.  And now we're looking at a grind of a season but its way too early with 0 Fenway games played to think that the offense is toast.  And it isnt toast.  But it isnt toast because of guys you keep coming back to as guys we should trade.  And I find myself disagreeing with that even though I understand youre coming from from a belief that Neto/Paredes/Marte > Durbin at infield is a bigger offensive upgrade than Duran > Masa at DH....But 1) not true for Paredes and 2) I dont think Neto was ever actually available and like Marte, if available - there were ways to get him while leaving the strength of our offense (3 corner outfielders) intact.

The trade was PW, Bello, Harrison, and a prospect thats not the 6'7 CF for Marte or even Seager.  We didnt need Oviedo, Gray and from this group could have done better than Durbin.


 

The thing about having an explosive offense is it puts pressure on the pitcher. I agree you needed your keep the 3 LHH Ofers, otherwise you werent just net positive lineup. Opposing pitchers can try and paint those corners, or get guys to chase…..  because a walk vs this lineup never hurts you when we strike out 12-14x a game. 

McCullers in the game the other day looked as relaxed as a backfield 3 inning sim game vs our lineup. And it’s not fun to watch, pitching and defense junkies have to agree when Correa hit that 3 run home run you KNEW the game was over. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The John Wall injury set DMV area NBA basketball back 15 years.  Just brutal.

I was born in 84, so I suspect you have some years on me.  But I remember growing up in the 90s and even into the 2000s Terrapins basketball was a very good program.  Hope they get back.  Hard in the NIL days to compete with the big fish in the Big 10.  Teams like Michigan, State, Purdue have millions to throw around in NIL money.  As a Rhode Islander, I was a little upset when my boy Fatts Russel transferred from URI to Maryland, but Im a Providence College season ticket holder so only a fan of URI when they have more of a chance to make noise than PC, which is rare.  The last time that happened though, was Fatts Russell freshman year and he was really good.  I think hes doing well playing somewhere overseas.

Honorable mention: Len Bias.

Maryland was a 4 seed and in the Sweet Sixteen a year ago.  Then the coach and literally every single player left.  So weird to watch my team for the first time and I didn't know one single player. But I knew enough to recognize a bad team.  Kind of like what I'm watching on MLB Extra Innings every night now.  

 

I loved Fatts Russel.  Len Bias was going to be so weird for me. I HATED the Celtics (and pretty much every team in every sport that wins all the time). I had no idea how I would have reacted to seeing Len Bias in a Celtics uniform.  But you guys really lost out.  He was compared to Michael Jordan but he didn't put the ball on the floor nearly as well.  But he would have been a monster for the Celtics.  

[mvp 78]

Send the Cora Regime to a farm upstate. 

[jdc69]

I am re-bringing up a pet topic with some new info I looked up. It drives me up the wall when Cora brings in a bullpen arm when the starter seems to be cruising, just because his pitch count is getting high, and then they immediately blow the lead. He did it in Sox/Reds game with Weissert replacing Early, and he did it many times last year. Not only do they blow the lead but it sends them on a losing streak many games after, like they are on now.

I asked AI, "who has the most runs in the 6th inning, starters or bullpen?" They said the bullpen, and used recent data to answer (5-7 seasons). So the whole 3 times around the order is moot because data says starters are still more effective than bullpen after 3 times around.

My other question was about people's argument for taking starters out early. They say they need more rest because they throw harder now. I asked, overall, who has the higher ERA, pitchers 5 years ago until now, or pitchers 10-15 ago? The answer was 5 til now had a higher ERA. 

So basically I feel this shows the modern way is not better, not even counting the injuries. 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to imagine there would be less pitching injuries, if these starters went longer into games.

They do throw harder and also try to put higher spin rates on their pitches. That takes an enormous toll on an arm.

I get the argument for going longer and asking why do modern players need to be babied?

I think the fact that all 30 teams follow the same philosophy on this gives you the answer, even if it's not the answer you want to hear.

There are more RP'ers that are capable or even better than starters, so that is a factor, too.

[notin]

2 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I asked AI, "who has the most runs in the 6th inning, starters or bullpen?" They said the bullpen, and used recent data to answer (5-7 seasons). So the whole 3 times around the order is moot because data says starters are still more effective than bullpen after 3 times around.

My other question was about people's argument for taking starters out early. They say they need more rest because they throw harder now. I asked, overall, who has the higher ERA, pitchers 5 years ago until now, or pitchers 10-15 ago? The answer was 5 til now had a higher ERA. 

So basically I feel this shows the modern way is not better, not even counting the injuries. 

Who pitched more sixth innings? Starters or bullpen?  If you’re going by aggregate run total, that’s a factor. 
 

By any chance did you consider that your ERA question was effectively “did pitchers have a better ERA before or after the universal DH?”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Who pitched more sixth innings? Starters or bullpen?  If you’re going by aggregate run total, that’s a factor. 
 

By any chance did you consider that your ERA question was effectively “did pitchers have a better ERA before or after the universal DH?”

All I can think of are Boston bullpens since 2018, which were always burnt out by mid-summer because the starters couldn't go deep...

... maybe that's a bad example, because the second's failures were directly connected to the first.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All I can think of are Boston bullpens since 2018, which were always burnt out by mid-summer because the starters couldn't go deep...

... maybe that's a bad example, because the second's failures were directly connected to the first.

2024 to 2025:

IP by SP'er

Sox are 11th.

(2019-2023: 26th)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

2024 to 2025:

IP by SP'er

Sox are 11th.

(2019-2023: 26th)

The 24-25 uncommon denominator... minions? 

"Bello!"

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All I can think of are Boston bullpens since 2018, which were always burnt out by mid-summer because the starters couldn't go deep...

... maybe that's a bad example, because the second's failures were directly connected to the first.

The whole “pitchers are wussies compared to back in the day” is more than just 1980 vs 2025.

Yes the Hall of Famers from the 80s and 90s threw lots of innings.  Not as many as, say Bob Feller, who frequently topped 280 IP.  Of course Feller was a complete wussy compared to Christy Mathewson and Iron Man Joe McGinnity, a pair of Giants’ teammates who would conbine for 700 IP.  Of course they were still wimps next to Hoss Radbourn, who would throw 400IP on his own and then punch out a horse.

This is an ongoing evolution in MLB….

[moonslav59]

The old folks in the 70's probably wished the game was like it was in the 30's.

[jdc69]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Who pitched more sixth innings? Starters or bullpen?  If you’re going by aggregate run total, that’s a factor. 
 

By any chance did you consider that your ERA question was effectively “did pitchers have a better ERA before or after the universal DH?”

 

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to imagine there would be less pitching injuries, if these starters went longer into games.

They do throw harder and also try to put higher spin rates on their pitches. That takes an enormous toll on an arm.

I get the argument for going longer and asking why do modern players need to be babied?

I think the fact that all 30 teams follow the same philosophy on this gives you the answer, even if it's not the answer you want to hear.

There are more RP'ers that are capable or even better than starters, so that is a factor, too.

I think its less about being babied and more about the philosophy of how they train pitchers. The reason they throw so hard now is because someone decided they wanted starting pitchers to give max effort and just relieve them earlier. Of course Im sure an increase in injuries wasn't a part of the plan but it happened anyways. Before I think starters valued longevity in a game so held back somewhat for preservation. They "worked it," and used more judgement. Now they are treated more like machinery to plug in where needed. Another thing this new way of thinking didnt plan for is the quicker wearing down of the bullpen.

[notin]

6 hours ago, jdc69 said:

 

I think its less about being babied and more about the philosophy of how they train pitchers. The reason they throw so hard now is because someone decided they wanted starting pitchers to give max effort and just relieve them earlier. Of course Im sure an increase in injuries wasn't a part of the plan but it happened anyways. Before I think starters valued longevity in a game so held back somewhat for preservation. They "worked it," and used more judgement. Now they are treated more like machinery to plug in where needed. Another thing this new way of thinking didnt plan for is the quicker wearing down of the bullpen.

The main flaw in your theory is starters don’t give max effort.  Watch the All Star game and you’ll see starting pitchers are pacing themselves all season.

Sure teams value hard throwers, but they don’t develop them.  Kids grow up believing 95mph radar gun readings get them drafted in the top fuce, or a free ride at Arizona State.  Plenty of kids out there are bringing their own high octane arms to the draft.  And even their parents believed it - remember about 10-20years ago, when there was tjis trend where parents would subject their perfectly healthy teenagers to Tommy John surgery because they had this mistaken belief their kids would throw harder?  MLB teams aren’t doing that.

But some point, MLB pitchers did price themselves $20-30mill per year. And teams actually signed on.  But when you’re paying a pitcher that much, he’s not just a roster spot; he’s an investment.  And teams will protect their investments.  This is probably why Early was allowed to throw more pitches than Crochet.

And that Early has potential is why he (and no other pitcher) is allowed to throw 125 pitches anymore.  And especially not in March…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, notin said:

Of course they were still wimps next to Hoss Radbourn, who would throw 400IP on his own and then punch out a horse.

This is an ongoing evolution in MLB….

Hoss played in the days when ballplayers weren't millionaires (or even hundredaires). They all had to work real jobs for money. Lucky for him he landed an acting part in Bonanza.

I got my degree in American Studies from Thespian University.

[Randy Red Sox]

I actually thought the Sox would be better this year and it's far too early to write them off but it's not a great start.  Almost all of the offseason additions have been sub standard to date but could have been projected after all of the options the Sox "were in on" didn't come to fruition.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Hoss played in the days when ballplayers weren't millionaires (or even hundredaires). They all had to work real jobs for money. Lucky for him he landed an acting part in Bonanza.

I got my degree in American Studies from Thespian University.

Hoss Radbourn is most definitely not the father of Hitchcock!

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, jdc69 said:

 

I think its less about being babied and more about the philosophy of how they train pitchers. The reason they throw so hard now is because someone decided they wanted starting pitchers to give max effort and just relieve them earlier. Of course Im sure an increase in injuries wasn't a part of the plan but it happened anyways. Before I think starters valued longevity in a game so held back somewhat for preservation. They "worked it," and used more judgement. Now they are treated more like machinery to plug in where needed. Another thing this new way of thinking didnt plan for is the quicker wearing down of the bullpen.

They did end up making reactionary changes to address the "wearing down" issue by expanding the roster size. Also, teams used to keep 10, 11 or 12 pitchers on their 25 man roster- now everyone keeps 13 on their 26.

They have specialized "long men," 6th, u7th and 8th inning guys, and of course almost everyone uses a one inning closer.

Yes, someone made a choice to try and maximize pitcher's skillsets by pushing them towards "not saving themselves" for a long game. It makes sense, beyond the machinery analogy.

Yes, it has led to more injuries- not less, and that might hint at the fact that this wasn't done to prolong pitchers' careers. I remember that A's team, where almost all the starters went way longer than anyone else in MLB, and most of those pitchers didn't last very long either.

Good post. Thanks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Hoss Radbourn is most definitely not the father of Hitchcock!

The Red Sox have a cameo in a sequel of Hitchcock's Rear Window.

It's called Rear View Mirror, with the Yankees in the front seat. 

Sam Kennedy swears the Sox' role gets bigger at the end, but the soundtrack is Meatloaf's "Objects in the Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are."

[moonslav59]

The thing is, we are farther away than we appear in the mirror.

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox have a cameo in a sequel of Hitchcock's Rear Window.

It's called Rear View Mirror, with the Yankees in the front seat. 

Sam Kennedy swears the Sox' role gets bigger at the end, but the soundtrack is Meatloaf's "Objects in the Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are."

fun fact: Kennedy gets up an hour early each day so he can spend more time with himself.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

fun fact: Kennedy gets up an hour early each day so he can spend more time with himself.

That only works if he stay up late.

[moonslav59]

How about the SSS start by our catchers?

10 for 22 with 3 2Bs (all by Wong)

Sox catchers are 4th in fWAR at +0.4

4th in C OPS at 1.045

1st in C BA at .455 (1st in OBP at .455)

[notin]

15 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

fun fact: Kennedy gets up an hour early each day so he can spend more time with himself.

Actually it’s so he can go to bed earlier and get rid of himself sooner…

[moonslav59]

Here are some selected players' OPS. (These are players that were FAs, traded or discussed a lot as trade targets... (plus, a few others)

.154 Refsnyder

.228 Ozuna

.279 Kurtz

.334 Arenado

.355 Rooker (not much talk about him)

.433 Matt Shaw

.461 Bichette (lead MLB in ABs)

.481 Chisholm

.532 KMarte

.551 B Matthews

.559 Bohm

.576 Keaschall

.582 Polanco

.586 B Stott

.636 G Torres

.649 Devers O'Neill

.651

.660 Semien

.669 Tucker (not a Sox target)

.725 Alonso (Willson is at .671)

.730 Arraez

.742 Bregman

.755 Paredes

.767 E Tovar & E Suarez

.784 Neto

.787 Okamoto

.812 M Muncy LAD

.821 CJ Abrams

.858 Hoerner

.891 Royce Lewis

.967 Murakami

.975 Schwarber

.990 C Seager

1.148 O'Hearn

1.152 Yandy Diaz & Brendan Donovan

1.156 Tristan Gray (11 ABs)

1.250 Viento (12 ABs)

1.319 B Lowe

Note: these are very small sample sizes.

[Maxbialystock]

Not that it means much, but I took a peak at this year's Sox payroll.  

The 1st, 2d, 4th, 8th, and 9th highest salaries belong to pitchers Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Chapman and Bello and total $98 M..

The two highest paid "hitters" are Story and Yoshida, total $41M.   Next are Contreras at $17M, Anthony (!!!!) at $16M, and Duran at @ $8M.

Obviously, Breslow  prefers to invest in pitchers because his top two hitters contracts were by his predecessor.  Indeed, the only new bats Breslow can claim are Contreras and Durbin.  

And this season the Sox have the 6th highest payroll.  

Oh, and let's not forget that last year Breslow started the season with Devers and Bregman.  Devers left in June because of a disagreement over playing 1b and Bregman had a subpar season because of the injury.  Consequently, Breslow was reluctant to guarantee $35M/year for 5 years to 32 year old Bregman.  Those two were each paid $35M last season and still are this season.  

On the other hand I think it is fair to say that last season  the Sox pitching got them into the postseason, especially after their best hitter Anthony went on the IL on Sep 3.  

Right now Boston is ranked 22d in team ERA and 28th in runs scored.  

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the Brez plan was to spend on Gray and Suarez. Suarez (and Durbin) were the fall back on Bregman. Still, the bottom line was that Brez invested in SP'ers more than batters and the pen combined. He also traded JH Garcia (a bat) for Oviedo.

Brez did trade quite a lot of prospect pitching, so that balanced things a little bit, but Max's point stands as correct.

Pitchers traded:

MLB pitchers: Fitts, Dobbins, Harrison, Bernardino, Murphy, Guerrero & Hicks

Prospects:

4 Perales

8 Clarke

10 Fajardo

12 Sandlin

18 Drohan

20 Travieso

21 Paez (lost to  Rule 5 and then returned)

plus Aita & Hoppe

That's over 15 pitchers lost.

7 Added:

Suarez, Gray, Oviedo & Bennett

Watson, Coulombe & Samaniego