drewski6

You went from 20% likely vs the yankess to "not favored against the yankees, and rightfully so" Thats quite a fallback, with a lot of middle ground in between. Also, realism and pessimism are not mutually exclusive.

Make no mistake, I would trade Valera right now for 2 months of prime Lincecum.

Frame isnt the be all end all, and not even when you factor in the extension advantages that usually come with it. But Tolle being 6'6 is certainly helping him. Schlittler is 6'6 as well. Misiorowski is 6'7. Sale is 6'6. Christopher Sanchez is 6'7. And RJ's size was an asset as well. Nothing is 100% but you cant teach frame or extension and both are very helpful when you have them. Im not saying that anything is a guarantee. Yamamoto is small and effective and Dylan Cease is below average size (for a pitcher).

100%, Id take 3 yeas of Lincecum over any of our pitching prospects. My point is not that you have to be over 6'2 to be effective. My point is that the size difference is a big variable when discussing Valera's vs Perales' injuy risk.

The little guys like Tim Lincecum usually dont have long careers because they have to go max effort.

Valera is like 6-3, 210. Perales is like 5-11, 155 lbs. His delivery is max effort because it needs to be.

He is too little. If I can beat you up in a fight, get off the 40 man roster.

Our pitching will be fine, our hitting will make/break us.

Room: We have more thump lately MVP: Well if we bench Gasper, that goes away Moon: Well other teams are going to bench their thumpers too MVP: No Room: Crickets Do I need to say it? How about, and hear me out, we dont bench Gasper?

Well, not until the end there.

So if hes the most capable SS defender (by a margin), this is a reason why he is too low at #15 on importance (for 2026 championship chase). Im also considering that. Im also considering his playoff experience, that hes swung the bat well since returning, and that he was one of our best hitters in last years playoffs. Tolle, Gray, Cedanne, Contreras, Abreu, Story

I agree with MVP that end of day, his job is to entertain. We are the clients. I agree with you, however, that we should have compassion and understanding for his mental health journey. But the challenge is where to draw the line. Because every person who acts like a fool has a reason why. There are always reasons why. I dont love "figure it out" as it does sound cold to me. But there is a point where his mental health struggles are hurting the team more than his talents are helping. But Ill keep rooting for him. But I may boo if he drops a ball. But Id prob feel bad about it later.

I agree that the context of your post was the future, not here until end of playoffs this year. #15 right now, with 6-7 pitchers in front is not haterade though. For 2026 championship chase - he's like #6-8 most important with 1-3 pitchers in front.

He wants Which coincidentally is very close to the chance of winning 4 coin-flips in a row. Thats not how fangraphs calculates the 6% (assume every series is a coin-flip) because then Dodgers would be 12.5% (one less series due to bye) and they are at like 26%) But I think this is worth pointing out to contextualize our 6%. If you said, we have just as much a chance of winning every series as the opponent....That sounds better than 6%, even though they are roughly the same (4 coin flips in a row is 6.25%).... 0.5->0.25->0.125 - > 0.0625

Im not expecting anything, and think we'll be less than 50%, especially on the road. I dont think we'll be like 20% likely to win though. It will change between now and then depending on who is healthy, who is hot..... But most likely , we'll be somewhere between 35% and 42% likely to win the series. Depends a lot (to me) on Gray, Contreras, Crochet - if we can see them rounding into form, looking good entering the series, I think our chances go up considerably.

If we can win a 3 game series in the Bronx round one, I think we can go all the way to the WS. No offense to anyone, but it doesnt make sense to me be like ALCS is their peak. Maybe if theres some standings swapping like IllinoisSox states. We all know this but how far you get isnt always a 100% reflection of your own team. You can get knocked out in the first round facing a bad matchup or running into a "team of destiny" (future champ) and a weaker team can go further because of a better matchup in rd 1 or an easier route through the tournament. Million Dollar Man Ted Dibiase didnt make the finals of the Wrestlemania IV tournament because he was the second best wrestler in the tournament, you know? He got a little help from an Andre The Giant vs Hulk Hogan double DQ. Also, its not always just about talent. I am not a believer that the more talented team finds a way to win in the playoffs. I think theres a lot of randomness baked into the cake, and we also have to consider who's hot, who's not (who sells out in stores, who's go the blue drop. Ma$e. Aint nothing change but my limp, cant stop now see my name on a blimp), I once saw a thread on here about how we are actually almost custom built to beat the dodgers. And I think I only skimmed that one. Dont remember the details. But good enough for me. How far can we go? All the way, including the Italian arm hair. Sorry thats a little Rhode Island hot weiners joke. "6 gaggas all the way", and the dude stacks them up his arm for speed and the sweat and hair that gets in there is part of it.

Im glad I missed teh "monkeys in a circus" comment, that feels out-of-touch. I like the story of Duran (no pun intended). I do respect rising above mental health issues. And I liked Durans comments after Devers was traded about how we are all now pulling in the same direction. I think theres leadership qualities in there, but they may be partially hidden behind some d-bagginess. I do feel like Duran has been a co-creator or champion of some fun celebrations like the wally head and the shopping cart. I also like the mullet. And the tenure. Jads original criticism is about the lack of tenure and the turnover making em feel like here today, gone tomorrow quickly replaced mercenaries. I know what Jad means, as I dont always love the "next man up" mindset. Sometimes it feels like theres a turning point when it comes time to pay a guy or replace him with the next young / cheap prospect. And I dont love that culture. But I do acknowledge obviously that you cant pay everyone. And there has to be a pick and choose.

DId you custom make it? Im going to Fenway last home game of season, I was planning on buying it there, but I wonder if it would be $400 at Fenway vs $200 online, and if I can get it sooner, but I suppose last home game at Fenway is only weeks away. Im def joining you and getting one. I think you made the right choice of player, I can see eyeing Gasper because hes a NH native. But he is already 30 and who knows the long term plan. ANd if he can keep it up. Im talking to you but also myself. Im not a NH native (providence native) but I do love Gasper. Any my friends dad taught him in HS. Maybe I should get a Gasper "shirt-zee" like $40 and a Tolle Jersey (what? like $200-$250), I do need fresh gear. I have Betts, Pedroia, and Papelbon gear lol.

From here until the rest of reg season and through playoffs, Story is absolutely in the top 15 of our most important players. I would put him behind Tolle, Contreras, Cedanne, maybe Gray and Chapman

I realize that you said this on 9/12 and Im all but but but Tolle and you wrote this before his historic smirk. Thats worth pointing out. I do think there is a lot of validity to what you say. But I think this is why I am going to run out and buy a Tolle jersey. ASAP. Hes young, in the beginning of his career, big personality, giant arm. If you are looking for an individual to pour some fandom into, hes a great choice. And so is Cedanne.

I like you, but I dont think this is particularly fair to guys like Cedanne and Abreu especially even Duran, who can for sure be a knucklehead, but my point is this team is loaded with fun personality. And now we can add a smiling Tolle (insert him right at that top). I think that maybe what is going on here is sports in general arent as big a part of our culture or maybe that due to some success in the last 20 years....I see what you are saying. And I agree that the individuals are important. I disagree with Notins post (no offense to Notin) that its all about "team" But this team absolutely does have individuals who are worth rooting for as people. Cedanne is a freaking excellent human, and hes very active in the community. But for some reason , theres not this larger than life aura around him that was attached to the individual 2003-2004 teams. But its not his fault. I care about individuals too. And Id rather attach myself to people than logos and laundry. But there are worthy individuals on this team. Tolle mania is about to take off. And Im sure his jersey is going to fly off the shelves. I want one. I think also the increase of injuries in todays game may be contributing to the turnover. Every signing over 30 years old just carries so much more risk than it use to. ANd not only that, but injuries are prob shortening careers too.

Even you, Joebrady. Prob know plenty of Js in NY

Jew-ish Jew Years Party is Sunday, tomorrow at Greggs restaurant (Warwick, RI location) at 2pm. Im buying the food. Rented out the tavern attached to the restaurant. And if you know Greggs, yes I got plentyyyyy of their pickles. Cheers to my fellow Js and also everyone else. I set the vid to share with anyone with the link so if you have Jewish friends you would like to share with, it should work if you copy/send the link.

A Rosh Hashanah greeting from a Jewish Boston Athlete

But if you cant keep the runners at bay, you cant play the position in 2026. Everything else is significantly secondary to that. I dont need to see a large sample from Gasper to knw that hes not a solution at C. Wish he was. But he doesnt have the arm. Neither does Wong. And its unfortunatelly a deal breaker. If a catcher had the arm, then I can see giving him bonus points if he has a calming effect on pitchers. But I wonder how much of that is small samples. And how much of that is consistent year to year. At least these days. Few years ago was a different story. But right now, neither Gasper nor Wong have the arm. I dont think. Ive seen Wong throw this year more than Gasper and its not good. I think Casas could swipe a bag on him. The throws are soft and high.