A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

If anything is concerning, its the lack of extra base hits.  Thats why Im kind of over the OBP side of OPS.  Singles and walks lead to LOB and when looking to drive the ball (important for extra base hits) , there will usually be an uptick in Ks.  Im really not wanting our guys going to the plate trying to not strike out.  Thats passive.  

Story has 2 extra base hits,  Abreu 5 - the following guys have 0: Narvaez, Roman, Duran, Yoshida, Cedanne, Contreras, IKF, Durbin

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Durbin being ok is fine as long as the rest of the lineup produces, but he won’t put up numbers like all the others that could have been, or mentioned as being in the lineup instead. Raffy, Bregman, Paredes, or Marte, and there was more, but Durbin was a CHEAP option after Bregman went bye bye.

Well, Paredes was a “Fenway swing” Guy who really isn’t in the same category as those others.  His career OPS of .765 is was the equivalent of a .780 on the 2025 Red Sox.  I don’t think that’s out of reach for Durbin.

But Devers and Marte are quite often .890 and above.  That’s some rare air that Durbin likely never attains…

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kutter Crawford - optioned to AAA

Johan Oviedo - optioned to AAA

Sandoval - sent to the bullpen

That very well might be the choice when all are healthy, but someone will get hurt or struggle enough to be demoted, traded or DFA'd.

Crawford should get some IP in MLB, this year.

[Old Red]

Tolle needs to stay in Woo, and to keep stretched out if they are counting on him to be a starter this year. Cora has already said Masa will get plenty of playing time, so the most likely way will be musical chairs for the outfield outside of an injury, or trade. Cora said last night he’s going to use all his players. Masa is just not going to be a backup DH.

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

There is another more obvious way the OF sorts itself out, which is Cora just uses them the same way everyday, occasionally giving each the occasional off day.  It’s the least complex and most likely plan…

Least complex? 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Least complex? 

Cora said after the game last night that he couldn’t have gone back to the hotel thinking he had left Masa on the bench on why he pinch hit for Durbin, and said all his players will play. I think Cora likes having it this way IMO.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Cora said after the game last night that he couldn’t have gone back to the hotel thinking he had left Masa on the bench on why he pinch hit for Durbin, and said all his players will play. I think Cora likes having it this way IMO.

He'd rather have a roster that made sense.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He'd rather have a roster that made sense.

When’s the last time he had that? I get that Masa is kind of forced on him though.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When’s the last time he had that? I get that Masa is kind of forced on him though.

2021. The very next year, he had to throw Arroyo out in RF. It's been a struggle ever since. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2021. The very next year, he had to throw Arroyo out in RF. It's been a struggle ever since. 

Arroyo in RF, and Franchy at 1B.🙈

[notin]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Least complex? 

If the Sox had Eaton instead of Yoshida, Cora would have a set starting lineup and work Eaton in occasionally to keep him active.  Now he has a player better than Eaton, and he has an option to do the same thing.  This is on Cora for overcomplicating it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

When you said the only thing you are confident about them is that there would be swing and miss....I dont think thats fair.  Im confident they will both have a lot of extra base hits, for example.  Im confident that if healthy , they are both 3+ WAR players.  Im confident that they are both very good starters. Agreed, not elite.  

Their athletic gifts are elite, but I'm just not confident either will have consistently good years with the bats.

Story has only had one good year in Boston. Injuries have been a big part of that, but he's now 33 in a sport where most feel a big leaguer's prime is 28-32. Trevor keeps himself in shape, but Father Time could care less because as we know, every new sprain or strain in the mid-30s becomes a part of your forever after.

Duran has had one great year, followed by a good one (though not All-Star Quality according to bb-ref). He can nab flies in the outfield and bags on the basepaths, but they've shown they can get him, too. At least we know Jarren will post, so we'll take the contributions and hope they're mostly positive.

Our feature film would still be better with multiple nominees for Best Supporting Actor surrounding an annual Oscar favorite.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If the Sox had Eaton instead of Yoshida, Cora would have a set starting lineup and work Eaton in occasionally to keep him active.  Now he has a player better than Eaton, and he has an option to do the same thing.  This is on Cora for overcomplicating it…

I'd be fine if they were committed to having Duran DH 120 G while Masa sits. Doesn't seem like that's the plan. 🫠

A Duran/Refsnyder platoon would be much more enjoyable to me than Duran/Masa.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be fine if they were committed to having Duran DH 120 G while Masa sits. Doesn't seem like that's the plan. 🫠

A Duran/Refsnyder platoon would be much more enjoyable to me than Duran/Masa.

No it doesn’t seem like Masa sitting that much is the plan, but is that just Cora’s plan, or a combination with Breslow?

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No it doesn’t seem like Masa sitting that much is the plan, but is that just Cora’s plan, or a combination with Breslow?

Breslow is handing Cora the players and Cora is figuring it out apparently. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No it doesn’t seem like Masa sitting that much is the plan, but is that just Cora’s plan, or a combination with Breslow?

Maybe the plan is to showcase Mass Attacker...

[drewski6]

50 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Their athletic gifts are elite, but I'm just not confident either will have consistently good years with the bats.

Story has only had one good year in Boston. Injuries have been a big part of that, but he's now 33 in a sport where most feel a big leaguer's prime is 28-32. Trevor keeps himself in shape, but Father Time could care less because as we know, every new sprain or strain in the mid-30s becomes a part of your forever after.

Duran has had one great year, followed by a good one (though not All-Star Quality according to bb-ref). He can nab flies in the outfield and bags on the basepaths, but they've shown they can get him, too. At least we know Jarren will post, so we'll take the contributions and hope they're mostly positive.

Our feature film would still be better with multiple nominees for Best Supporting Actor surrounding an annual Oscar favorite.

Sure, but Duran and Story can be counted on for more than just "swing and miss" and the fact that they are not elite hitters, but may need to be, is on Breslow not them.  Duran and Story are 2 good hitters, and sure we need a great one. I was screaming that all offseason.  Now we dont know what we are going to get from Contreras or really Anthony....So its early to get panicky.  And Im not.  But Duran and Story are more than just guys who strikeout at whatever rates they strike out.  You act like K's are the reason for the offensive woes, and they are extremely telling towards hitting ability and I fundamentally disagree.  Guys who dont K stay back too long and slap.  They arent better hitters, they are wimps.  Im not interested in avoiding K's and I dont think its productive.  Im not interested in judging players by their K's. Im not interested in OBP or really OPS.  Im interested in total extra base hits. If you are selective but without being selective to a fault, that will show in your total xtra base hits at end of season.  But if you are too selective or stay back too long, youll have a good OBP, but you wont have enough extra base hits.

NBA players who never take shots except when they are in close have misleadingly high fg%'s becasue they dont really shoot anything but bunnies.  But if you only look at misses, you will think that guys that dont shoot are keys to offense but its just conservatism. Im not into that wimp-stuff.  Take a chance , swing a bat.  If you dont chase sliders you are not swinging enough.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe the plan is to showcase Mass Attacker...

I think baseball brain trust by now know what Masa is, or isn’t whatever the case may be.

 

[mvp 78]

Notable wimps (guys under 20% k rate): Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Vinnie Pasquantino, Francisco Lindor, Shea Langeliers, Salavador Perez, Jose Ramirez...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think baseball brain trust by now know what Masa is, or isn’t whatever the case may be.

 

He could hit 850 over the first half and every GM in MLB would be hesitant to trade for him. 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe the plan is to showcase Mass Attacker...

Only baseball fans on a forum like everything to be set, consistent day to day, and its not a reality in 2026.  Mix and match, critical thinking, everything is case by case.  Its okay that not every decision is obvious.

The problem with this team isnt player x doesnt play the same position or we have some depth....The problems are all the new people we've brought in have f'ing stunk.  Ranger, Gray, Oviedo, Contreras, Durbin...Literally all of them.  And its too early right now to start drawing conclusions or tinkering.  But its not too early for each and every one of us to blame what we want to blame and confirm our biases.

This is why MVP thinks the issue is not having a set player for each position, you think the issue is K's, and I think the issue is a lack of meeting the ball out in front/driving the ball.  

All 3 of us are just repeating what we thought the problems were going to be entering the year.  Ive learned that people seeing what will confirm their biases will likely continue.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Notable wimps (guys under 20% k rate): Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Vinnie Pasquantino, Francisco Lindor, Shea Langeliers, Salavador Perez, Jose Ramirez...

Do these guys stay back and slap? And why is 20% the magic threshold.  Going up to the plate trying to not K is scared money and wimpy.  That doesnt mean that everyone who isnt K'ing is a wimp. The how matters.

I care about Xtra base hits.  If someone is K'ing too much that will show in their xtra base hit totals.

[drewski6]

LOBs arent from K'ing too much, they are from too many singles and walks and not enough driving gaps.  You drive gaps by swinging through the baseball. You do that by meeting it out in front and attacking pitches.  That will also lead to more K's.

Some players are just good at picking up spin. They will K less without trying by being good hitters.  

But looking at players solely through their K% can be misleading.  Just like looking at NBA players by their FG%.  The guys with the highest fg% in NBA arent the best shooters. They are centers who never shoot and all their FGs are dunks or layups.

[drewski6]

Im fine with high number of Ks if they come with extra base hits.  Now if you are K'ing and not driving the ball, thats a problem, obviously.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

All 3 of us are just repeating what we thought the problems were going to be entering the year.  Ive learned that people seeing what will confirm their biases will likely continue.

At least I know I'm right. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At least I know I'm right. 

Had we traded Duran for prospects in spring training, I have a sneaky suspicion our record would be 1-3.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Had we traded Duran for prospects in spring training, I have a sneaky suspicion our record would be 1-3.

They'd be no worse without him? Ok! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im fine with high number of Ks if they come with extra base hits.  Now if you are K'ing and not driving the ball, thats a problem, obviously.

What would you call a guy with zero Ks who leads the team in hard hit balls? 

 

 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'd be no worse without him? Ok! 

Maybe win that first game 2-0 instead of 3-0 but its kind of hard to go from 1-3  to 0-4 by subtracting anyone not named Crochet.

Regardless, Duran isnt the guy right now, I would give away to get him off this team.  Im not a big believer in addition by subtraction or that you turn all these would be L's into W's by cleaning up the roster.  Even on the pitching side. Had we never gotten Gray, that prob just means Oviedo starts game 4 and Ranger starts game 3 (Early starts game 2).  And we'd prob still be 1-3.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What would call a guy with zero Ks who leads the team in hard hit balls? 

 

 

Either the best hitter ever or a small sample size aberration. Also, hard hit balls is kind of subjective.