A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Hilariously weak AL?  Did you see the NL last year?  The best team was Milwaukee, who had one hitter in the Top 50 for OPS - Yelich at 49.  And the worst team was Colorado, who made a solid run at dethroning the 2024 White Sox as the worst team of all time.

The Sox post season had too much Eaton/Romy/Sogard bench players.  This team has a little more depth than last season’s, which is a good thing despite that it angers some fans…

Not sure why Eaton and Romy , who are good situational bench players are catching strays, but I largely agree with you.  We've spoken about this before, but when sellers end up competing for playoff spots, making the playoffs becomes unimpressive to me, so Im not putting a ton of stock in the whole "starting from an advantageous spot" going into the offseason.  To be clear, not saying that we were bad conclusion of last year, just that going into the offseason I thought "work to be done" and I didnt mean 3 SP....But....I didnt know Tolle was going to continue to not be ready. I thought it would be a Buchholz situation where he hs 10 starts down there and a 1.5 ERA and its like what are we doing here?

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Most of this was already talked about on another talk show this morning. Especially about being ready to start the season.

Don't listen to that stuff. It'll rot your brain. Just read my posts instead. They'll nourish your soul. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If the length, and money were the same who do you think the Red Sox would have preferred Alonso, or Con Man? The Red Sox did offer Alonso a contract first.

I wouldn't pay Contreras what Alonso got either. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Contreras: 

20+ HR's 6 seasons

>20 HR 4 seasons (includes COVID and partial rookie year)

162 Game Avg 26 HR

 

Fair enough, Contraras is not the main problem here.  But with that said, and I understand he played catcher, he simply does not produce enough home runs from a power position.  My figures were wrong, it included 2026 so that screwed up my averages.  But he has only hit 20 or more HRs 6 out of his 10 seasons (understanding the 2020 season was not a season) and he has topped out at 24 HRs.  

 

And he's 33 and has hit .257 for his career and I happen to believe batting averages are still important.  

[drewski6]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Lets see how Alonso compares to Contreras.

To me, the big mistake was keeping 4 OF'ers and going cheap on Durbin/IKF rather than KMarte/Neto/Paredes

1. See that MVP, I told you he wasnt talking about Masa.

2. Again, the big mistake is we should have further prioritized defensive alignment over offense?'

Duran and Abreu are both too good of hitters on a team with not enough good hitters to be going in a trade to improve the offense.  These deals that move either of them feel more like optimizing the roster positionally, which I dont think is the same thing as improving the offense.  

Marte/Neto would have helped over Durbin, but I dont think either Duran or Abreu should have went in those trades.  We had plenty of other chips especially if we didnt cut into our trade-chip resources to bring in Contraras, Durbin, Oviedo.

We didnt get any of the big fish on offense.  Like Seager, Schwarber, Marte.  I did find myself defending Contreras to a couple friends last night who are already asking for his head (but not Durbin's).  I also dont love the bench makeup.  Im sorry but this team doesnt have enough bats to plug in IKF, but hes our next man up on infield (including first base)?  And IKF is the Cora crush.  Hes going to get a lot of at-bats, and thats going to put even more pressure on the top of the order.   Pitching and DEEEEEEEFENSE junkies got the team they wanted.  And now we're looking at a grind of a season but its way too early with 0 Fenway games played to think that the offense is toast.  And it isnt toast.  But it isnt toast because of guys you keep coming back to as guys we should trade.  And I find myself disagreeing with that even though I understand youre coming from from a belief that Neto/Paredes/Marte > Durbin at infield is a bigger offensive upgrade than Duran > Masa at DH....But 1) not true for Paredes and 2) I dont think Neto was ever actually available and like Marte, if available - there were ways to get him while leaving the strength of our offense (3 corner outfielders) intact.

The trade was PW, Bello, Harrison, and a prospect thats not the 6'7 CF for Marte or even Seager.  We didnt need Oviedo, Gray and from this group could have done better than Durbin.


 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I never counted on Casas.  I'm so done with Story. Now we can't even get a solid performance from our ace.

 

I'm so sick of my teams sucking. All of them have sucked for years and this looks like another lost summer.  

F You John Henry.  So much for "this offseason will be different".  

Well this is your own fault for missing out on Celtics greatness.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not sure why Eaton and Romy , who are good situational bench players are catching strays, but I largely agree with you.  We've spoken about this before, but when sellers end up competing for playoff spots, making the playoffs becomes unimpressive to me, so Im not putting a ton of stock in the whole "starting from an advantageous spot" going into the offseason.  To be clear, not saying that we were bad conclusion of last year, just that going into the offseason I thought "work to be done" and I didnt mean 3 SP....But....I didnt know Tolle was going to continue to not be ready. I thought it would be a Buchholz situation where he hs 10 starts down there and a 1.5 ERA and its like what are we doing here?

Sellers like the Dodgers?

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Con Man was supposed to be an addition to Bregman, which didn’t come together as planned. Durbin was a CHEAP option to Bregman, or all the other 2B/3B that was rumored about like Marte, or Paredes, and a few others. Yes Ranger was a reaction to losing Bregman, and it remains to be seen if he’s the right pitcher to go long on.

Agreed 100%.  They went with Contreras because he was cheap enough to be "the second bat" as Alonso or Schwarber would have made it tight/challenging to bring back Bregman alongside.  That fell apart and NOT because Bregman priced himself out or because ownership is cheap but because Breslow's personality hang-ups which I told a lot of you would be a problem (to a good amount of surprise here).  We've been scrambling since.  People here tried to frame it as a choice to move on from Bregman , which it never was.  The whole offseason centered around Bregman, and thats why our moves prior to Bregman were complimentary moves (Contreras, Gray, Oviedo) and thats why you saw an immediate Suarez contract after.  It was a reactive, save face PR move.  It may ultimately work out if this is the reality for Bello, Oviedo, Gray, Tolle (shelled in AAA).  I didnt expect to have this much struggling through the rotation so maybe we'll ultimately need Ranger.  I have more confidence in him than Bello, Oviedo.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow and Company are counting on Contreras and Durbin to be average to above-average hitters -- but even then, this offense isn't better or even as good as when it had Bregman and Devers.

At this point there's not much they can do to improve the O except hope for young guys to blossom.

And reshuffle the batting order... I don't like Anthony leadoff and hate Story 2nd; maybe Contreras can be the righty batter that can best protect Roman, and if Abreu continues to mash, the Sox can bat a 1-2-3 of Anthony-Contreras-Abreu. If Durbin settles down and shows his 2025 was no fluke, they could even go Duran-Durbin 1-2, and follow with that trio to keep the L-R-L-R-L.

A Globe article this AM said the Sox made moves this offseason to improve the D. What -- got a first baseman who can actually catch a low throw? Sign a bench-warmer who once won a Gold Glove? Trading for Durbin only because they choked signing Bregman is no upgrade.

Sorry, but the only way this defense will truly improve is if the Sox totally tank for two months and are forced to make drastic changes, starting with replacing Story at shortstop with Mayer full time.

IKF is more likely to replace Mayer than Mayer is to replace Story.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

I dont think Cora likes Mayer

[notin]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not sure why Eaton and Romy , who are good situational bench players are catching strays, but I largely agree with you.  We've spoken about this before, but when sellers end up competing for playoff spots, making the playoffs becomes unimpressive to me, so Im not putting a ton of stock in the whole "starting from an advantageous spot" going into the offseason.  To be clear, not saying that we were bad conclusion of last year, just that going into the offseason I thought "work to be done" and I didnt mean 3 SP....But....I didnt know Tolle was going to continue to not be ready. I thought it would be a Buchholz situation where he hs 10 starts down there and a 1.5 ERA and it’s like what are we doing here?

On Eaton and Romy, yes  Romy is a situational role player who might have been playing hurt, which is not on Cora if Romy withheld that info.  Eaton’s is an AAAA player who excels at the stuff it’s hardest to improve at (speed, arm strength) but at the end of the day in on the MLB fringe and not a guy you want starting postseason games.  And he would not have been had Abreu and Anthony not been hurt. (Abreu played but he was just coming back.)  Sogard has the ceiling of a utility infielder that never gets anything longer than a 1 year deal.  

That’s why I’m on the short list glad to still have Yoshida…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

AC will never diss Story, his anointed Team Leader of the position players now that Bregman is gone forever.

Like I said, for any major move to happen this year, the Red Sox would have to be a complete disaster, like 20 games out by Memorial Day... which would probably mean Regime Change.

A new guy wouldn't have any issues implementing new ideas, though.

Cora isnt the reason Story is the leader of the offensive group.  The 13 position players on the team are.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think Cora likes Mayer

makes you wonder. he bats Ofer Durbin against both righties and lefties but not Mayer. hmmm.....

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think Cora likes Mayer

I think YOU don't like Mayer and it affects every post you make about him. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I gave Cora the benefit of the doubt through many rough seasons. Last year, he didn't show up with his best self and really wasn't able to handle the internal drama (and was a large part of it). Since this team is already tilting a bit from the get go, seems that he no longer has anyone's ear. 

I was a huge fan and even went so far as to say Breslow's bad personality would eventually cost us Cora. ANd I was worried about that.  Now I find myself not as pro-Cora.  I do disagree that last year was a bad year for him, as we had a thin pitching staff and had to manage through a decent amount of positional player injuries....But this year, I think Cora has been a real problem.  Like you dont have to play Masa this much.  And I think hes going to keep forcing IKF, Monasterio, and Masa into too many games.  If you want this much run out of your bench you should have gotten platoon options.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

1. The team never seems to show up ready or prepared.

2. The team has no clue how to handle the ABS system.

3. The team has been bad defensively for years.

4. The team has had a bad approach at the plate for years.

5. The team doesn't seem to play well from behind. 

Maybe I could cherry pick 1 or 2 of these to partially rebut, but on the whole- this post feels hard to argue against.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

makes you wonder. he bats Ofer Durbin against both righties and lefties but not Mayer. hmmm.....

2025 Splits:

Durbin 717/722

Mayer 416/739

It's not a wonder TBH.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Contreras is better than Pete Alonso. He'll have more WAR than him by the EOY.

I saw something from Contreras that impressed me recently. Did he leg out an infield hit?  If hes still that athletic, then it leads me to believe that hes aging well and will be fine.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I was a huge fan and even went so far as to say Breslow's bad personality would eventually cost us Cora. ANd I was worried about that.  Now I find myself not as pro-Cora.  I do disagree that last year was a bad year for him, as we had a thin pitching staff and had to manage through a decent amount of positional player injuries....But this year, I think Cora has been a real problem.  Like you dont have to play Masa this much.  And I think hes going to keep forcing IKF, Monasterio, and Masa into too many games.  If you want this much run out of your bench you should have gotten platoon options.

He only knows how to manage one way and it doesn't work anymore. The lack of communication is just going to create a lot of friction when your team leader (Story) is a very quiet guy to begin with.

If there wasn't a WBC and the team had more time to gel in ST, maybe things would look differently. Maybe not.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well this is your own fault for missing out on Celtics greatness.

I live outside of DC.  We missed out on all the greatness. Worst stretch I've been through, even Maryland Basketball sucks now.  But for most of my life I could always count on the Red Sox to be good.  Not now.  

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Most of this was already talked about on another talk show this morning. Especially about being ready to start the season.

The excuse Ive heard is WBC. Personally, not buying it.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe I could cherry pick 1 or 2 of these to partially rebut, but on the whole- this post feels hard to argue against.

2 and 3 are slam dunks. 4 is backed up by their terrible k rates in recent seasons. Unsure how to quantify 1. I'm sure someone could look into 5, but that's not going to be me. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He only knows how to manage one way and it doesn't work anymore. The lack of communication is just going to create a lot of friction when your team leader (Story) is a very quiet guy to begin with.

If there wasn't a WBC and the team had more time to gel in ST, maybe things would look differently. Maybe not.  

I don’t think the WBC was a problem for the Red Sox start. The Red SOX haven’t been above 500 at the 20 game mark since 2018.

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

Sellers like the Dodgers?

I was thinking Guardians in 2025, Tigers in 2024.  And I think in one of those years KC did more selling than buying and ended up staying in the race for a while (eventually falling out of it).

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

On Eaton and Romy, yes  Romy is a situational role player who might have been playing hurt, which is not on Cora if Romy withheld that info.  Eaton’s is an AAAA player who excels at the stuff it’s hardest to improve at (speed, arm strength) but at the end of the day in on the MLB fringe and not a guy you want starting postseason games.  And he would not have been had Abreu and Anthony not been hurt. (Abreu played but he was just coming back.)  Sogard has the ceiling of a utility infielder that never gets anything longer than a 1 year deal.  

That’s why I’m on the short list glad to still have Yoshida…

I was more glad to have Yoshida before Cora started benching Duran (vs a righty) and Anthony to get him in games.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

I agree on the move, but it seems Cora had a hard enough time deciding where Durbin, and Mayer would play.

[drewski6]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think YOU don't like Mayer and it affects every post you make about him. 

Thats not true. I think hes done everything they asked him to do.  Im increasingly concerned that IKF is going to supplant him because of Cora, not because I want it to happen.

I literally just said "The trade was PW, Bello, Harrison, and a prospect thats not the 6'7 CF for Marte or even Seager."  Notice the absence of Abreu, Duran, Mayer, Tolle, Early.  To me this was my "guys I prefer not to trade list"

The guy I dont like is Cedanne.  Becuase I think Duran is a better overall CF'er (offense and defense into account). And I think it opens up the DH spot for Schwarber, Rooker, Alvarez, David Ortiz, a guy like that.  A real stud with a bat.  

I also dont like IKF, especially as a backup first baseman.  

I like 6'3 guys , who work out, do what they are told, and are fluid in the field and Mayer checks those boxes.

I think Cora will bench Mayer too much, and for reasons that you are convincing me on - Im starting to get frustrated with Cora.

Youve been convincing me (slowly) for almost a year that IVe overrated Cora (although , I still wonder if he would be good upstairs , like Brad Stevens)...And the reason why I am scared right now of Mayer losing playing time to IKF is because I heard it on NESN last night and also because you are starting to convince me that Ive overrated Cora.

Id tell you if I didnt like Mayer.  But I like big bodied players who work out and maintain their athleticism and fluidity even after adding muscle.  ANd Mayer checks these boxes.

Heres a cheat code of whether or not I like a player? Are they 6'2 or above?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

IKF is more likely to replace Mayer than Mayer is to replace Story.

Whenever I think of IKF -- already in his 30s, barely a regular in a handful of seasons, ex-Yankee, never won -- as one of Breslow's key additions, I hear in my head: Isiah Kindofa Failure

[Duran Is The Man]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 Splits:

Durbin 717/722

Mayer 416/739

It's not a wonder TBH.

Durbin went hitless in his last 13 at bats last year, making him 0-30 in his last 30 at bats. nice job Breslow.

[Duran Is The Man]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The excuse Ive heard is WBC. Personally, not buying it.

excuses are for losers. like everyone giving the "new culture" excuse for Masa for what, three years now?