A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know lots of Red Sox fans are out on a ledge after just 6 games, and that’s fine if you want to go there. Crochet didn’t pitch good in Houston last year either, so that’s not a biggie to me. Starting 1-5 is not a good start, but too soon to jump IMO.

I hate this lineup before the first pitch of the season.  Far too many question marks and marginal starters.  When you are counting on players like Trevor Story and Marcello Mayer to be solid players and an unproven talent in Anthony to provide a star like performance, when you already know your corner infielders are below average hitters and you don't have one single big bat that scares people, I see no reason to change my opinion.  

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I hate this lineup before the first pitch of the season.  Far too many question marks and marginal starters.  When you are counting on players like Trevor Story and Marcello Mayer to be solid players and an unproven talent in Anthony to provide a star like performance, when you already know your corner infielders are below average hitters and you don't have one single big bat that scares people, I see no reason to change my opinion.  

Can’t disagree with you there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

54 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I hate this lineup before the first pitch of the season.  Far too many question marks and marginal starters.  When you are counting on players like Trevor Story and Marcello Mayer to be solid players and an unproven talent in Anthony to provide a star like performance, when you already know your corner infielders are below average hitters and you don't have one single big bat that scares people, I see no reason to change my opinion.  

Breslow and Company are counting on Contreras and Durbin to be average to above-average hitters -- but even then, this offense isn't better or even as good as when it had Bregman and Devers.

At this point there's not much they can do to improve the O except hope for young guys to blossom.

And reshuffle the batting order... I don't like Anthony leadoff and hate Story 2nd; maybe Contreras can be the righty batter that can best protect Roman, and if Abreu continues to mash, the Sox can bat a 1-2-3 of Anthony-Contreras-Abreu. If Durbin settles down and shows his 2025 was no fluke, they could even go Duran-Durbin 1-2, and follow with that trio to keep the L-R-L-R-L.

A Globe article this AM said the Sox made moves this offseason to improve the D. What -- got a first baseman who can actually catch a low throw? Sign a bench-warmer who once won a Gold Glove? Trading for Durbin only because they choked signing Bregman is no upgrade.

Sorry, but the only way this defense will truly improve is if the Sox totally tank for two months and are forced to make drastic changes, starting with replacing Story at shortstop with Mayer full time.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, notin said:

Hilariously weak AL?  Did you see the NL last year?  The best team was Milwaukee, who had one hitter in the Top 50 for OPS - Yelich at 49.  And the worst team was Colorado, who made a solid run at dethroning the 2024 White Sox as the worst team of all time.

The Sox post season had too much Eaton/Romy/Sogard bench players.  This team has a little more depth than last season’s, which is a good thing despite that it angers some fans…

Are you trying to knock the Brewers? They've been to the playoffs 7 of the last 8 seasons. They are a great team. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pretty accurate.

Suarez was not really lower cost, and Gray is making $31M ($10M paid by STL.)

Contreras was cheaper than Alonso, but he's still making $18M.

Durbin, Kiner-Falefa, Oviedo and others were much lower cost options than others, for sure.

18M is platoon DH money for this team. That's nothing. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I hate this lineup before the first pitch of the season.  Far too many question marks and marginal starters.  When you are counting on players like Trevor Story and Marcello Mayer to be solid players and an unproven talent in Anthony to provide a star like performance, when you already know your corner infielders are below average hitters and you don't have one single big bat that scares people, I see no reason to change my opinion.  

Contreras isn't a below average hitter. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow and Company are counting on Contreras and Durbin to be average to above-average hitters -- but even then, this offense isn't better or even as good as when it had Bregman and Devers.

At this point there's not much they can do to improve the O except hope for young guys to blossom.

And reshuffle the batting order... I don't like Anthony leadoff and hate Story 2nd; maybe Contreras can be the righty batter that can best protect Roman, and if Abreu continues to mash, the Sox can bat a 1-2-3 of Anthony-Contreras-Abreu. If Durbin settles down and shows his 2025 was no fluke, they could even go Duran-Durbin 1-2, and follow with that trio to keep the L-R-L-R-L.

A Globe article this AM said the Sox made moves this offseason to improve the D. What -- got a first baseman who can actually catch a low throw? Sign a bench-warmer who once won a Gold Glove? Trading for Durbin only because they choked signing Bregman is no upgrade.

Sorry, but the only way this defense will truly improve is if the Sox totally tank for two months and are forced to make drastic changes, starting with replacing Story at shortstop with Mayer full time.

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

AC will never diss Story, his anointed Team Leader of the position players now that Bregman is gone forever.

Like I said, for any major move to happen this year, the Red Sox would have to be a complete disaster, like 20 games out by Memorial Day... which would probably mean Regime Change.

A new guy wouldn't have any issues implementing new ideas, though.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

AC will never diss Story, his anointed Team Leader of the position players now that Bregman is gone forever.

Like I said, for any major move to happen this year, the Red Sox would have to be a complete disaster, like 20 games out by Memorial Day... which would probably mean Regime Change.

A new guy wouldn't have any issues implementing new ideas, though.

Such a team leader that they've had to bench their starting catcher (a notable hard worker), in the second series of the year. 

[Duran Is The Man]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

thanks for saying what i've thought from day one: he's not a good manager. nice guy, "player's manager" and all that but he is not a HOF manager -not even close. he's too loyal to a fault.

i've got a buddy that started out washing dishes at a fast food restaurant when he was a kid. worked hard and they moved him up to manager of the store. he had a couple of employees that were always f***ing off but he wouldn't fire them because they were his friends. he told his dad about it. and his dad reminded him that he's there to do a job and not make friends. he fired both of them the next day. went on to simultaneously manage 8 stores, and ultimately own about 100 stores. multi-multi-multi-multi millionaire. Cora is too busy making friends rather than doing his job.

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

AC will never diss Story, his anointed Team Leader of the position players now that Bregman is gone forever.

Like I said, for any major move to happen this year, the Red Sox would have to be a complete disaster, like 20 games out by Memorial Day... which would probably mean Regime Change.

A new guy wouldn't have any issues implementing new ideas, though.

fire them all and hire the Brewers GM and manager.

[mvp 78]

I gave Cora the benefit of the doubt through many rough seasons. Last year, he didn't show up with his best self and really wasn't able to handle the internal drama (and was a large part of it). Since this team is already tilting a bit from the get go, seems that he no longer has anyone's ear. 

[mvp 78]

1. The team never seems to show up ready or prepared.

2. The team has no clue how to handle the ABS system.

3. The team has been bad defensively for years.

4. The team has had a bad approach at the plate for years.

5. The team doesn't seem to play well from behind. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Contreras isn't a below average hitter. 

Perhaps. His career OPS is .810. But he has also average 15 home runs a season from a power position.

 

And he's 33 so his production is on the decline.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. The team never seems to show up ready or prepared.

2. The team has no clue how to handle the ABS system.

3. The team has been bad defensively for years.

4. The team has had a bad approach at the plate for years.

5. The team doesn't seem to play well from behind. 

Quoting you to address the last point.  For years now when they go into the 9th down a few runs they never make it exciting, they just lie down and die.  

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Perhaps. His career OPS is .810. But he has also average 15 home runs a season from a power position.

 

And he's 33 so his production is on the decline.  

He was a C for most of his career which ate into his power. He was a fulltime 1b for the first time last season and hit 20 HR in a terrible HR park. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I gave Cora the benefit of the doubt through many rough seasons. Last year, he didn't show up with his best self and really wasn't able to handle the internal drama (and was a large part of it). Since this team is already tilting a bit from the get go, seems that he no longer has anyone's ear. 

I said in the beginning of being on here that I wouldn’t have hired Cora back  the first place, and I still feel the same today. I like Cora, but I think he’s way overrated as a Manager, because of 2018. Farrell won his first year too. I think Cora over manages more times than not, and now would do a better job managing those little leaguers he does that commercial with.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was a C for most of his career which ate into his power. He was a fulltime 1b for the first time last season and hit 20 HR in a terrible HR park. 

He was a settle, and cheaper than Alonso.

[mvp 78]

Contreras: 

20+ HR's 6 seasons

>20 HR 4 seasons (includes COVID and partial rookie year)

162 Game Avg 26 HR

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

He was a settle, and cheaper than Alonso.

Contreras is better than Pete Alonso. He'll have more WAR than him by the EOY.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Perhaps. His career OPS is .810. But he has also average 15 home runs a season from a power position.

 

And he's 33 so his production is on the decline.  

This is not supported by the data.

Best 3 years of career? His last 3.

Best 2 years of his career? His last 2.

His 123 OPS+ in 2025 is very good. He only had 3 other seasons higher than that. (3 better/ 7 worse)

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was a C for most of his career which ate into his power. He was a fulltime 1b for the first time last season and hit 20 HR in a terrible HR park. 

Playing catcher also ate into his PA totals.

He has 27 HRs per 650 as a catcher, but he only had over 495 PAs in one season.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Contreras is better than Pete Alonso. He'll have more WAR than him by the EOY.

Barring an injury to either I think Alonso will have more HR, and RBI, which is what I care about.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Playing catcher also ate into his PA totals.

He has 27 HRs per 650 as a catcher, but he only had over 495 PAs in one season.

Build him up buttercup.

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. The team never seems to show up ready or prepared.

2. The team has no clue how to handle the ABS system.

3. The team has been bad defensively for years.

4. The team has had a bad approach at the plate for years.

5. The team doesn't seem to play well from behind. 

Most of this was already talked about on another talk show this morning. Especially about being ready to start the season.

[Old Red]

If the length, and money were the same who do you think the Red Sox would have preferred Alonso, or Con Man? The Red Sox did offer Alonso a contract first.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

This has been an ongoing issue with Cora: not playing players where they are best defensively.

Devers at 3B for way too long.

Story at 2B with the lesser Bogey at SS.

Now, Story at SS as he has clearly regressed.

Rafaela at SS (and 2B,) Arroyo in the OF, Franchy at 1B and on and on...

It may be too early to say he's "lost this team," but this has been a bad start to the season. The bone-head plays continue.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If the length, and money were the same who do you think the Red Sox would have preferred Alonso, or Con Man? The Red Sox did offer Alonso a contract first.

Since the Sox "always make the bad choices," why would this matter?

If the answer is yes, then Contreras was the better choice.

🤣

[moonslav59]

Day off and then a home staand, where we simply have to turn tings around- in a big way.\

3 vs SDP

3 v MIL

Neither series will be a cakewalk.

Another day off and then a road series:

3 @ STL

3 @ MIN

Day off

Home for

3 v DET

3 v NYY

(No day off)

3 @ BAL

3 @ TOR

Last day of April off.

3 out of the next 15 days off, so our pitchers should be well rested.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No matter what fans might think of Contreras, he at least seems like a guy pitchers and opposing managers might fear a bit more than Story... batting directly after a 21-year old with all the pressure of New England expecting him to crush any pitch near the zone.

I'm not saying Story is a bad hitter, but which guy is more apt to obliterate a mistake pitch: WiLLson or Trevor?

As for protecting Anthony -- or forcing pitchers to throw something to hit instead of pitching around him -- which guy seems easier to whiff: Contreras or Story?

Their career K-rates are close, 24% to 28%, but this year's SSS is more stark: 23% vs. 45% -- mainly because Story is third in the majors in Ks through the first week. Roman is tied for 7th.

Batting 1-2, Anthony and Story are the two who get the most Red Sox at bats every game.