A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

To be fair, he said “we are 3.5 games behind looking ok”.  I took that to mean the Sox are 3.5 games behind mediocrity, and just a different way of expressing how bad the team is.  
 

The only thing benefiting the Sox right now is the rest of the non-Yankee teams in the East are also all underperforming.  The Jays just came off a 1-5 stretch against the Rockies and White Sox. Baltimore is 4-6 against another soft schedule. Tampa’s bullpen has given up more runs than ExLax.  The only real bright spot for Boston is at least they’ve been playing badly against playoff teams from last year…

I'm not going to tea leaf reading on moon's posts anymore. He'll just have to be more clear in the future. 

They aren't "out of it," but they are sleep walking through the beginning of the season. We haven't been able to see any good baseball out of them yet, so it's hard to believe in them right now. All the criticisms from the offseason seem to hold true. Worse, some of the high profile acquisitions haven't panned out yet. 

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, and I'm as frustrated, pissed and perplexed as everyone else.

Maybe some sort of shock to the system is  needed.

It is well documented how nearly all of us wished we had done more over the winter. Most of us spoke to the lack of offense added. That being said, I thought we got slightly better on paper, but that has not shown itself to be true, so far.

My hopes are not as high as they were before game 1 (or 2,) but I am not ready to call this team out of it or hopeless.

"We need two big bats."

to

"Uh, actually we're going to win with pitching and defense." 

Plays Story out of position. Anthony can't reach the IF with his throws. Rafaela is no longer a GG CFer. No meaningful additions to the pen. 

 

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

Even that’s not a good reason…

I wouldn't count on Arias to make it to MLB or waste 2 MLB seasons on Story at SS either, but here we are. 

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

I admit thr failure to add Alonso/Schwarber type didn’t bother me, although the addition of Durbin didn’t thrill me either.

But either way, the strength of this team was supposed to SP.  And especially Bello and Suarez have failed to deliver, wuth the only bright spot bring it’s only been 2 starts for each.  Also the neglected bullpen hasn’t done much either…

Ketel Marte was the move TBH. Not getting that done is the problem.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Cora might be more than “part of” the problem. He seems to be a big part of the organizational dysfunction. But if he both he and Breslow get canned, i won’t mind.

Just firing Breslow does nothing but add to the continuing parade of GM/CBO types that distract from the fact that Cora has missed the playoffs more often than not, and quite often does so to teams with lesser rosters…

I don't know how they find an external CBO if they fire Breslow. I guess just promote Eddie Romero Jr and be done with it? 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Ketel Marte was the move TBH. Not getting that done is the problem.

What did they want for him? 
 

I think my last proposal of Duran plus Bello might not have been satisfactory…

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how they find an external CBO if they fire Breslow. 

I can get my resume together quickly…

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's early, but the way this team is playing, there doesn't appear to be much life in this team. Bad coaching. Bad pitching. Bad defense. Poorly put together offense. 

This team feels 2012ish: a lot of good players that aren't moving forward together, underachieving pitching staff. 

They are flat in every aspect at this juncture.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

ESPN  team stats say the Sox have 2d most errors, 11, the 25th best ERA, 4.84, and the 23d most runs scored, 36.  

Bregman, FWIW, currently has a WAR of -0.2.  Devers WAR is -0.3.  

By comparison horrible, terrible Durbin's WAR is -0.1 and Anthony's is +0.3.  

So, yes, we needed bats, but the heart of the issue is the pitching because that is Breslow's presumed strong suit and where he spent the most money.  

 

Red Sox Errors:

'26 - 29th

'25 - 30th

'24 - 29th

'23 - 29th

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

What did they want for him? 
 

I think my last proposal of Duran plus Bello might not have been satisfactory…

Mayer and pitching

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't count on Arias to make it to MLB or waste 2 MLB seasons on Story at SS either, but here we are. 

Mayer to SS, Story to 2b.  Stop worrying about platoons.

If Romero and/or Arias force a re-evaluation in the near future, tackle that issue when it happens.  No reason to get ahead of potential depth issues…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox Errors:

'26 - 29th

'25 - 30th

'24 - 29th

'23 - 29th

So we’re improved over last year.  The glass is half full!  And filling rapidly.

We won’t discuss what it’s filling up with…

[a700hitter]

10 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Yes, its all very communist. No accountability. Having mathematicians tell athletes how to play baseball must make baseball just super fun.

And communists  are very  bad  at math!

[notin]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer and pitching

Pitching is vague.  Tolle? Bello? Sandoval?

Dealing Mayer would have made less sense than moving an OF…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Pitching is vague.  Tolle? Bello? Sandoval?

Dealing Mayer would have made less sense than moving an OF…

The reports were that AZ really wanted Mayer and pitching, but the Sox wouldn't give up Mayer. 🫠

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox Errors:

'26 - 29th

'25 - 30th

'24 - 29th

'23 - 29th

We can never say the defense is inconsistent again.

[moonslav59]

I heard it was Duran and Tolle or Early for KMarte.

To keep our better offensive players, I wonder who might be needed, if we subbed out Rafaela? Maybe more, maybe less or maybe about the same.

I think I'd give Rafaela, Tolle and Phiilips for KMarte or Neto.

I'd probably give Rafaela, Phillips & Eyanson for an extended Hoerner.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I heard it was Duran and Tolle or Early for KMarte.

Well, you heard wrong then. 🫠

[Maxbialystock]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Cora might be more than “part of” the problem. He seems to be a big part of the organizational dysfunction. But if he both he and Breslow get canned, i won’t mind.

Just firing Breslow does nothing but add to the continuing parade of GM/CBO types that distract from the fact that Cora has missed the playoffs more often than not, and quite often does so to teams with lesser rosters…

Whoa, Nellie. Cora managed easily the best team in Sox history when they won 108 games in in 2018 and then went 11-3 in the postseason.   The next  season, 2019, the Sox pitching collapsed (ERA ranked 19th in MLB)000 Sale and Price with ERA's if 4,40 and 4.28.  That season they had the highest payroll in MLB, so JH fired Dombrowski, and brought in Chaim Bloom from the Rays system which I think JH wanted to emulate to some degree.  Skip covid 2020 and go to 2021 in which the Sox still had enough hitting to rank 5th in runs scored although their team ERA was ranked 15th.  Thanks in part to Cora's managing, the Sox won 92 games and then made it to the ALCS despite not having a closer.  

In 2022 the Sox team ERA was ranked 25th, a disaster, and their run diff -52.  In 2023 the team ERA was 19th and the run diff -5.  Goodbye Chaim Bloom, hello Craig Breslow, also  a Yalie but with 10 years MLB pitcvhing experience. 2024 the Sox finished 81-81;   

Last year, 2025, JH loosened the purse strings enough to allow Breslow to sign  ace Crochet, AS thirdbaseman  Bregman, and closer Chapman.   However, Breslow went out of his way to dump Devers and his .900 OPS. About the same time Bregman went on the IL and was never the same for the rest of the season.  Anthony was brought up and by July Devers wasn't missed much even though it was the pitching that made the biggest difference last year.   Their team ERA was 9th best MLB and they made the postseason with 89 wins and then losing 2/3 game to the Yankees in the playoff. Their best hitter, Anthony, was injued Sep 3 and was out for the season.

Dombrowski built that 2018 juggernaut in part because JH underwrote the biggest payroll in MLB.  It was also the biggest in 2019 when the Sox didn't make the postseason.  Thus, exit DD, enter Chaim Bloom with definite restrictions on what he could do/spend. 

Right now the Sox stink because their pitching and hitting stink--despite the Sox having the 6th largest payroll in MLB.   

 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, you heard wrong then. 🫠

I thought I read Duran and Crawford, but AZ wanted Tolle or Early and not Kutter, but I cant find anything, now.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Name one time in human history, any 2-8 team looked like they had "life" in them.

Of course they look terrible, lifeless and worse. They are 2 and 8.

I'm not trying to predict some great surge, but the fact is we are 3.5 games behind looking okay.

Cue: "But if we keep playing like this, we have no hope." Well, duh.

The Fact is we are not 3.5 games behind looking okay, and things looking worse by the day. In other words DUP. Disfunction, Unreliable, and Predictable.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought I read Duran and Crawford, but AZ wanted Tolle or Early and not Kutter, but I cant find anything, now.

Whatever you thought you read was wrong. AZ wanted Mayer so that they could replace Marte with a younger, cost controlled IFer. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Fact is we are not 3.5 games behind looking okay, and things looking worse by the day. In other words DUP. Disfunction, Unreliable, and Predictable.

You can't give a straight answer.

If they are "predictable" then give us your prediction.

[mvp 78]

 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ketel Marte was the move TBH. Not getting that done is the problem.

FWIW so far this season Ketel Marte has posted a .184/.262/.316/.578 in 42 plate appearances for an OPS+ of 62:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml

It's early.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can't give a straight answer.

If they are "predictable" then give us your prediction.

I already have. The Red Sox are dysfunctional, and unreliable, which is predictable. I answer how I want to, and not how you want me to. Worst record in all of baseball, and behind EVERY OTHER team in the league for any postseason spot. It seems you can’t handle the truth.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I admit thr failure to add Alonso/Schwarber type didn’t bother me, although the addition of Durbin didn’t thrill me either.

But either way, the strength of this team was supposed to SP.  And especially Bello and Suarez have failed to deliver, wuth the only bright spot bring it’s only been 2 starts for each.  Also the neglected bullpen hasn’t done much either…

Im on the other end of it.  I was surprised that all the grade the offseason threads were all B+ to A+ and anything critical was like "needed one more BP piece" or "left too many outfielders" (so not enough subtraction).

I graded the offseason a D.  It felt chaotic, and that they failed to execute their plan which I thought revolved around Bregman (and still do).  I was also critical of that plan, because I wanted a masher alongside Bregman, but that desire dissipated a bit when they brought in Contreras.  Later preseason, started thinking I was too harsh because the end result is more important than the "how they got there", so even if it wasnt a linear route - it did start feeling like they took a playoff team and made it better.  Especially when like everyone was mashing in spring/WBC.

I dont feel like I can give any I told you sos or deserve a victory lap because what I thought was our flaw - inability to fix the offense, so go all in on pitching and D...To the point where I felt we went too all in on pitching and D.  I even went out and said "you can have too much pitching and we do"

But it doesnt feel like this team is where it is solely because of de-emphasizing the bats.  It feels like pitching and D are , at least, as much of a problem.  So even though I was surprised at all the rah-rah and optimism....And even though I eventually joined that rah-rah and optimism - it doesnt feel like when I was nervous about the team (before everyone started thumping in ST and WBC) .... even when I was skeptical, it doesnt feel like I was skeptical for the right reasons.  

Even when I was at my least optimistic.  If you told me 2-8 start, I would have guessed we'd have 19 runs combined in those 10 games and a lot of 2-1 losses.  But again, that doesnt seem to be the case.  It doesnt feel like me being like "too much focus on pitching and d and not enough focus on batting" is a correct synopsis of why we are 2-8, and thats what I would have told you if you told me before spring they would be 2-8 after first 10 games.
 

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The further they fall under .500, the more reason to just make the switch to Mayer at SS. Unless they really don't see Mayer as the future SS and believe it's Arias.

I heard an interview with the Sea Dogs manager today talking about Mayer, and he said even though he played Mayer more at SS when he was at Portland he thought Mayer would be a better 3B.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know how they find an external CBO if they fire Breslow. I guess just promote Eddie Romero Jr and be done with it? 

Am I allowed to pretend Eddie Romero is one of my faves, the late great, Eddie Guerrero?  

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I already have. The Red Sox are dysfunctional, and unreliable, which is predictable. I answer how I want to, and not how you want me to. Worst record in all of baseball, and behind EVERY OTHER team in the league for any postseason spot. It seems you can’t handle the truth.

Predictable and unreliable are antonyms.  Pick a lane…