A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

mvp 78 already said it and in fewer words.

 

In the AL it's tough to get a wild card bid with less than 90 wins and a winning percentage of .556. Right now the Sox are @ .543. Last year the Jays were a wild card with 89 wins and a winning percentage of .549.

 

We are getting a bit sissified about all this, though. There are 3 Wild Card teams in each league now. If that ain't enough for you, maybe it's your fault.

 

As for the AL/NL relative strength thing, this should be a random variance that evens out over time. It's not like NL teams aren't spending (Dodgers/Mets/Braves/Phillies/Padres/Giants).

[moonslav59]

Valdez? Marginal trade value as he's a platoon DH.

Romy has no trade value. He's a DFA candidate.

Kavadas has less trade value than Valdez, but more than Romy.

Dalbec has no trade value. He's a DFA candidate.

 

Why move Meidroth if he's not Rule 5 eligible? Keep him another season and see if he develops more power.

 

Nobody would have wanted Lugo last year as he was a part time player who wasn't playing well at all.

 

Paulino is playing better this year. His glove is a good carrying tool and he can carve out a UTIL role somewhere, maybe even here.

 

Jordan and Yorke have some trade value, but teams aren't drooling over them.

 

I was just assessing who might or might have value to trade at the deadline. Meidroth might have some value. He may be ML ready, soon. Lugo might have some value, now.

 

I agree on those you think have no trade value.

[moonslav59]

Top 20? Not a chance.

 

Agreed. Higher than 25 might be a stretch.

 

He was 12th in spring of '23.

[dgalehouse]

There should not be three wild cards. It is just a gimmick that is used to increase revenue. The third place team in a five team division does not deserve another bite of the apple, so to speak. It cheapens the regular season. But since it is a reality, a team that is in the running should make every attempt to go for it. Surely we all know that wild card teams do get hot and/or lucky and go on to win it all.

[mvp 78]

I was just assessing who might or might have value to trade at the deadline. Meidroth might have some value. He may be ML ready, soon. Lugo might have some value, now.

 

I agree on those you think have no trade value.

 

With his SLG, I don't think he's MLB ready.

 

Lugo needs to do it longer than for one month. He had a year long slump last year. He's still only 22 (for a few more hours) so there's no reason to write him off.

[mvp 78]

There should not be three wild cards. It is just a gimmick that is used to increase revenue. The third place team in a five team division does not deserve another bite of the apple, so to speak. It cheapens the regular season. But since it is a reality, a team that is in the running should make every attempt to go for it. Surely we all know that wild card teams do get hot and/or lucky and go on to win it all.

 

I don't have a problem with the expanded Wild Card. I think teams need to stick to a fork in the road when they get to the end of July though.

[Old Red]

There should not be three wild cards. It is just a gimmick that is used to increase revenue. The third place team in a five team division does not deserve another bite of the apple, so to speak. It cheapens the regular season. But since it is a reality, a team that is in the running should make every attempt to go for it. Surely we all know that wild card teams do get hot and/or lucky and go on to win it all.

 

Agree on not having three wildcards, and it does cheapen the regular season. Like you said xtra wildcards are just to make money. As always though you should always play to get in, and if not don’t play at all.

[moonslav59]

With his SLG, I don't think he's MLB ready.

 

Lugo needs to do it longer than for one month. He had a year long slump last year. He's still only 22 (for a few more hours) so there's no reason to write him off.

 

It seems MLB teams want ML ready players, yes, but they also prefer players 6-18 months away over 18-36 months away.

 

I'm not saying Lugo has high trade value, but a team looking to trade a 2 month guy might take him, or Lugo could be included with another player like Paulino or Jordan to improve the return value.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agree on not having three wildcards, and it does cheapen the regular season. Like you said xtra wildcards are just to make money. As always though you should always play to get in, and if not don’t play at all.

 

Wasn't it you, Irish, who always blamed Bloom for taking the middle fork in the road every deadline? And wasn't it MVP, your nemesis (nemebro?), just now agreeing with you -- in an abstract albeit simplified way?

 

And it is me, right here and now, who says no GM/CBO should ever be allowed to eat or serve lunch with or to his conference room full of Assistant Presidents of Vice, with anything called a spork. As a matter of fact, everyone should be banned from ever eating or cooking (nuking or even stirring at high temps with plastic utensils) with plastic, or storing anything edible in toxic containers or bags or wrap.

 

The world should've listened to post-Beatles John Lennon, warning us all when he named his new group Plastic Oh No! Band. Luckily, Jimmy Page was listening, and invented Heavy Metal.

[moonslav59]

I don't have a problem with the expanded Wild Card. I think teams need to stick to a fork in the road when they get to the end of July though.

 

I don't have a problem with it either.

 

It seems like most sports have expanded the playoffs about as far as acceptable. MLB was a little late to the party, but when money like this is involved, it's a no brainer. Itis here to stay. Maybe someday, we see 4 WC, especially if MLB expands to 32 teams.

 

The 162 game season seems to negate the need for so many WC teams, but money wins over just about everything, and when more teams and cities are in the race, it generates more interest and excitement over baseball

 

[moonslav59]

With his SLG, I don't think he's MLB ready.

 

Lugo needs to do it longer than for one month. He had a year long slump last year. He's still only 22 (for a few more hours) so there's no reason to write him off.

 

Lugo did have a .500 SLG in his longest season of his career (2022.)

 

Yes, he has to keep hitting well up to the deadline to have real value. That is over 2.5 months away.

[notin]

There should not be three wild cards. It is just a gimmick that is used to increase revenue. The third place team in a five team division does not deserve another bite of the apple, so to speak. It cheapens the regular season. But since it is a reality, a team that is in the running should make every attempt to go for it. Surely we all know that wild card teams do get hot and/or lucky and go on to win it all.

 

But the division arrangement gives some teams an unfair advantage. The Blue Jays were the third wild card in the AL last year but they won more games than the AL Central champion Twins…

[Old Red]

But the division arrangement gives some teams an unfair advantage. The Blue Jays were the third wild card in the AL last year but they won more games than the AL Central champion Twins…

 

The ONLY fair way to do it is take away the divisions, and have everyone play the same schedule, and then take the top 4 teams.

[moonslav59]

But the division arrangement gives some teams an unfair advantage. The Blue Jays were the third wild card in the AL last year but they won more games than the AL Central champion Twins…

 

If they tried to create a totally balanced schedule, it would mean changing the number of games per year:

 

5 games vs 29 teams= 145 games

 

6 games vs 29 teams= 174 games

 

You could try and get it close to balanced by having teams play:

5 games vs 12 teams (60 games)

6 games vs 17 teams (102 games)

Maybe the league could divise a way to decide what teams play 5 vs 6 games by using the previous year's schedule. It would not be perfect, but it would be way more balanced than now. The league could also try to create more parity by having the bad teams from the year before play 6 games vs the worst teams and only 5 vs the best, and vice versa.

 

It would mean a big cutback on rivalry games.

 

If the league expands to 32 teams:

4 x 8 team divisions

6 gms vs 7 div teams=42 gms

5 gms vs 24 other teams- 120 gms

4 division winners + 4 wild card winners (or have 2 more wild card team that have a play-in game.)

 

[notin]

The ONLY fair way to do it is take away the divisions, and have everyone play the same schedule, and then take the top 4 teams.

 

All for it. Although it doesn’t work out so simply with 162 games…

[notin]

If they tried to create a totally balanced schedule, it would mean changing the number of games per year:

 

5 games vs 29 teams= 145 games

 

6 games vs 29 teams= 174 games

 

You could try and get it close to balanced by having teams play:

5 games vs 12 teams (60 games)

6 games vs 17 teams (102 games)

Maybe the league could divise a way to decide what teams play 5 vs 6 games by using the previous year's schedule. It would not be perfect, but it would be way more balanced than now. The league could also try to create more parity by having the bad teams from the year before play 6 games vs the worst teams and only 5 vs the best, and vice versa.

 

It would mean a big cutback on rivalry games.

 

If the league expands to 32 teams:

4 x 8 team divisions

6 gms vs 7 div teams=42 gms

5 gms vs 24 other teams- 120 gms

4 division winners + 4 wild card winners (or have 2 more wild card team that have a play-in game.)

 

 

They did what they could, but with 3 wild cards, the likelihood of sending the top 6 teams goes up significantly. Whereas before teams got an unfair advantage solely based on geography…

[moonslav59]

They did what they could, but with 3 wild cards, the likelihood of sending the top 6 teams goes up significantly. Whereas before teams got an unfair advantage solely based on geography…

 

It does improve the odds of one of the best teams by record being left out, but it's not easy knowing who might be better or not, due to vastly different schedules.

 

BTW, SEA won 88 games, last season, yet the 87 win Twins made the playoffs, instead.

[moonslav59]

Somehow we are still holding onto 3rd place.

 

Big game, tomorrow.

[moonslav59]

Sox have 13 pitchers with an ERA under 3.50. Too bad, 3 are on the IL (Pivetta 0.82, Whitlock 1.96 and Bello 3.04)

 

The Active ones:

0.61 Bernardino

1.17 Weissert

1.69 Jansen

1.74 Criswell

1.75 Crawford

1.80 Slaten

1.99 Houck

2.25 Uwasawa

2.45 Kelly

3.47 Winckowski

 

Others:

3.72 Booser

4.86 Anderson

5.11 Martin

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS in order of most PAs:

 

.759 Duran

.611 Rafaela

1.023 O'Neill

.839 Abreu

.906 Devers

.453 Valdez (in AAA)

.736 Yoshida (on IL)

.857 Casas (on IL)

.950 Wong

.742 McGuire

.451 Reyes (in AAA and not on 40)

.377 Dalbec (in AAA)

.608 DHam (in AAA)

1.089 Refnsyder

.617 Story (on IL)

.488 Smith

.274 Cooper

.385 Grissom

.000 Short

 

We have 9 guys abobe .735, with #5 Casas and #9 on the IL (Yoshida.) The problem is 2 are catchers and only Devers plays the IF, and not very well, at that.

 

We have to hope Grissom can get to respectability on O and be decent on D.

 

First base is still a mess. Finding dime-a-dozen 1Bmen in May and June is not always a winning move.

 

With Rafaela moved to SS, we seem to have the D covered, but he has a ways to go to get over .735. He is at .611.

 

Best hitting team?

 

C McGuire .742

1B Wong .950

2B Grissom .385 (SSS)

SS Rafaela .611

3B Devers .906

LF O'Neill 1.023

CF Duran .759

RF Abreu .839

DH Refsnyder 1.089

 

[moonslav59]

Lowest Starting Pitcher ERA after 32 Games in MLB History

 

1.58 LAD '72 (Did not make playoffs)

2.03 BOS '24 (TBD)

2.12 LAD '81 (Won WS in short season)

2.16 CLE '72 (Did not make playoffs)

2.21 CHC '85 (Did not make playoffs)

 

Then...

Game 33: 3 ER in 6.0 IP (Houck)

Game 34: 0 ER in 1.0 IP (Bernardino)

Game 35: 1 ER in 4.1 IP (Criswell)

Game 36: 2 ER in 6.0 IP (Crawford)

 

That's 6 ER in 17.1 IP (3.12 ERA)

[mvp 78]

If they tried to create a totally balanced schedule, it would mean changing the number of games per year:

 

5 games vs 29 teams= 145 games

 

With all the added travel and wear and tear on pitcher's arms, I'm sold.

 

However, I'd just get rid of interleague play and go with 10 games against each divisional opponent (5 road/5 home). You'd play a team for 5 straight days and get each of their starters. It's only 140 games for now (they still want to add 2 teams which would push the regular season to a clean 150 games), but you could push the regular season back a few weeks so that It's not snowing in some ballparks and actually have it end in September rather than October.

[mvp 78]

Somehow we are still holding onto 3rd place.

 

Big game, tomorrow.

 

Right now, they are on pace for 86 wins. That would have not made the playoffs last season. TIME TO SELL SELL SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[notin]

With all the added travel and wear and tear on pitcher's arms, I'm sold.

 

However, I'd just get rid of interleague play and go with 10 games against each divisional opponent (5 road/5 home). You'd play a team for 5 straight days and get each of their starters. It's only 140 games for now (they still want to add 2 teams which would push the regular season to a clean 150 games), but you could push the regular season back a few weeks so that It's not snowing in some ballparks and actually have it end in September rather than October.

 

Ditch inter league play and play the rest of your league 11 times each for a return to a more traditional 154 games…

[notin]

Right now, they are on pace for 86 wins. That would have not made the playoffs last season. TIME TO SELL SELL SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

And if we win tonight, we need to buy it all back, right? SAVE THISE RECEIPTS!!

[Bellhorn04]

Ditch inter league play and play the rest of your league 11 times each for a return to a more traditional 154 games…

 

I'm sure we'll see that soon!

[mvp 78]

Ditch inter league play and play the rest of your league 11 times each for a return to a more traditional 154 games…

 

154 has a bad mouthfeel.

[mvp 78]

And if we win tonight, we need to buy it all back, right? SAVE THISE RECEIPTS!!

 

If they lose, they are only 1 game above .500 and it's I TOLD YOU SO THOSE GUYS SUCK AND THEY AREN'T GONNA WIN 70 GAMES!

[Bellhorn04]

If they lose, they are only 1 game above .500 and it's I TOLD YOU SO THOSE GUYS SUCK AND THEY AREN'T GONNA WIN 70 GAMES!

 

Pivetta Showcase tonight.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta Showcase tonight.

 

The two most emotional pitchers in MLB going head to head.