A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Duran Is The Man]

I guess I will call it good scouting by the Cardinals. Neither Roby nor Saggese were top 100 prospects anywhere when the deal was made, but both made the BA Top 100 list before the 2024 season…

 

the Cardinals signing Sonny Gray has worked out well for them too.

[notin]

the Cardinals signing Sonny Gray has worked out well for them too.

 

Not a surprise. Gray was the AL Cy Younnf runner-up, AL ERA runner-up, and got MVP votes…

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe this IS the good injury luck and it's only downhill from here?

 

An admirably perverse take.

[Bellhorn04]

Jays have been overrated for a long ass time. Rays are down for now, time to strike. Houston isn't in our division so we can't worry about them.

 

Might be a Captain Obvious take, but I think the Rays and Jays are the teams we have to finish ahead of this year to make the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

Might be a Captain Obvious take, but I think the Rays and Jays are the teams we have to finish ahead of this year to make the playoffs.

 

At least one of them.

[mvp 78]

An admirably perverse take.

 

You know how I roll.

[Old Red]

Don't sell. Just let these guys sit on the bench through September on a losing team then. Sounds great. Why get a return at all?

 

They should have kept Vazquez!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

If you’re not going to play to get in, and win then don’t play at all. The last two years the Red Sox were in shouting distance at the trade deadline you know when you were predicting the 80+ wins last year. It didn’t work out, and the Red Sox dropped off after the trade deadline. The players were pissed when Vaz got traded, so at the time NO. It’s worked out good since though.

[Old Red]

Jays have been overrated for a long ass time. Rays are down for now, time to strike. Houston isn't in our division so we can't worry about them.

 

Houston doesn’t have to be in our Div to get a wildcard. I’m not even thinking about the Div. A little dab will do ya, so any wildcard spot will do.

[Old Red]

But you will allow the rest of us to discuss it if we want to?

 

If it makes you feel better then go for it.

[notin]

Expendable guys or Potential Rule 5:

Hickey

Kavadas

Jordan

Yorke

Bastardo

Castro

Gambrell

Lugo

Zeferjahn

 

Lugo is making a strong bud to grab opposing scouts’ attention.

 

No one listed Fitts. Untouchable?

[Bellhorn04]

Lugo is making a strong bud to grab opposing scouts’ attention.

 

What percentage THC?

[moonslav59]

Minor League stats can be very deceiving, in terms of trade value of prospects.

 

How many of our top OPS guys have high trade value?

 

Woo

1.194 E Valdez (only 20 PAs)

1.079 Romy (over 40 PAs and on IL)

1.058 Kavadas (not much trade value, if any)

.969 Bobby Dee (replacement level player)

 

Meidroth .810 and Hickey .738 might have some trade value.

 

POR (These top two could have been traded, last winter, and nobody would have batted an eye.)

1.248 M Lugo

.912 Paulino

.883 Gasper

 

Jordan at .792 and Yorke at .737 might have some trade value.

Mayer .743, Teel .735 and Anthony .691 have the highest value,

[Bellhorn04]

Teams that are in sell mode at the deadline usually trade expiring contracts and obtain prospects, no?

[Old Red]

Teams that are in sell mode at the deadline usually trade expiring contracts and obtain prospects, no?

 

No problem with that if the Red Sox didn’t have any chance at the Postseason, but the last two years the Red Sox did. Didn’t Raffy, and some other players say they needed help last year at the deadline? Like I keep saying if you’re not playing to get in it then why play at all.

[moonslav59]

Teams that are in sell mode at the deadline usually trade expiring contracts and obtain prospects, no?

 

Those are the most common trades, yes.

 

Schwarber was one.

Nate and Pearce were two.

 

Then, there are a few like Workman & Hembree for Pivetta (not a prospect.)

[jad]

What percentage THC?

 

Dude!

[notin]

What percentage THC?

 

You'd have to ask Lugo. If you need to find him, look on base. He's there about 43% of the time...

[moonslav59]

Lugo made it up to 11th in the system, way back in 2019. He dropped out of the top 20 for a bit, but he was back at #14 by the end of 2022.

 

He was 12th to start 2023 but then dropped out of even the top 30, last summer and fall, and a no show in Spring 2024.

 

My guess is, he will crack the top 20 or 30, again, this summer.

[Bellhorn04]

Dude!

 

notin makes the funniest typos, I try to let them go but sometimes I can't help myself.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't know where we'll be at the deadline. It's too hard to say what this team will look like due to all the injuries. If they suck: sell. If they are very good: buy. In between: up for discussion.

 

It's just about that simple.

[mvp 78]

Lugo is making a strong bud to grab opposing scouts’ attention.

 

No one listed Fitts. Untouchable?

 

I don't know if Lugo has a spot here because he seems to be limited defensively from what I remember, but he's still young. He's Rule 5 eligible this offseason, so there's a chance he could be picked. If he keeps swinging a big stick, maybe you could move him for something?

 

I just figured it'd be silly to move a real starting pitching prospect that is so close to MLB. This isn't a WS contending team, so I don't know what kind of trade they'd be pursuing, but Fitts seems better here for now.

[mvp 78]

Minor League stats can be very deceiving, in terms of trade value of prospects.

 

How many of our top OPS guys have high trade value?

 

Woo

1.194 E Valdez (only 20 PAs)

1.079 Romy (over 40 PAs and on IL)

1.058 Kavadas (not much trade value, if any)

.969 Bobby Dee (replacement level player)

 

Meidroth .810 and Hickey .738 might have some trade value.

 

POR (These top two could have been traded, last winter, and nobody would have batted an eye.)

1.248 M Lugo

.912 Paulino

.883 Gasper

 

Jordan at .792 and Yorke at .737 might have some trade value.

Mayer .743, Teel .735 and Anthony .691 have the highest value,

 

Valdez? Marginal trade value as he's a platoon DH.

Romy has no trade value. He's a DFA candidate.

Kavadas has less trade value than Valdez, but more than Romy.

Dalbec has no trade value. He's a DFA candidate.

 

Why move Meidroth if he's not Rule 5 eligible? Keep him another season and see if he develops more power.

 

Nobody would have wanted Lugo last year as he was a part time player who wasn't playing well at all.

 

Paulino is playing better this year. His glove is a good carrying tool and he can carve out a UTIL role somewhere, maybe even here.

 

Jordan and Yorke have some trade value, but teams aren't drooling over them.

[mvp 78]

Lugo made it up to 11th in the system, way back in 2019. He dropped out of the top 20 for a bit, but he was back at #14 by the end of 2022.

 

He was 12th to start 2023 but then dropped out of even the top 30, last summer and fall, and a no show in Spring 2024.

 

My guess is, he will crack the top 20 or 30, again, this summer.

 

Top 20? Not a chance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This may drive the number crunchers crazy, but if a team plays all 162 scheduled games in a season, can it ever finish three games over .500?

 

Three wins better than break-even 81-81 is a record of 84-78 -- good enough to get the D-backs into the '23 World Series. But say a club is .500 at 78-78 -- and then wins its final six... isn't that six games over .500? Or just six better than .500?

 

82-80, two game diff; 83-79, four game diff... if the Sox are on pace for either, they probably still don't get a wild card game. These are the projections that can get 18 Asst. VPs arguing about buying or selling... or closing up Blooms like tulips on cold Spring nights.

[jad]

This may drive the number crunchers crazy, but if a team plays all 162 scheduled games in a season, can it ever finish three games over .500?

 

Three wins better than break-even 81-81 is a record of 84-78 -- good enough to get the D-backs into the '23 World Series. But say a club is .500 at 78-78 -- and then wins its final six... isn't that six games over .500? Or just six better than .500?

 

82-80, two game diff; 83-79, four game diff... if the Sox are on pace for either, they probably still don't get a wild card game. These are the projections that can get 18 Asst. VPs arguing about buying or selling... or closing up Blooms like tulips on cold Spring nights.

 

You know, once in a while, someone says something really interesting on this board! Damn, you're right!!!

[notin]

This may drive the number crunchers crazy, but if a team plays all 162 scheduled games in a season, can it ever finish three games over .500?

 

Three wins better than break-even 81-81 is a record of 84-78 -- good enough to get the D-backs into the '23 World Series. But say a club is .500 at 78-78 -- and then wins its final six... isn't that six games over .500? Or just six better than .500?

 

82-80, two game diff; 83-79, four game diff... if the Sox are on pace for either, they probably still don't get a wild card game. These are the projections that can get 18 Asst. VPs arguing about buying or selling... or closing up Blooms like tulips on cold Spring nights.

 

No because of how they phrase it.

 

A team finishing 84-78 is said to be 6 games above .500. But an 81-81 team is only 3 games behind them despite being .500. Where did those other 3 games go? Did the bellhop take them?

[notin]

notin makes the funniest typos, I try to let them go but sometimes I can't help myself.

 

Don’t blame me. Blame the duckhead who put the “i” and the “u” next to each other on the keyboard…

[mvp 78]

Don’t blame me. Blame the duckhead who put the “i” and the “u” next to each other on the keyboard…

 

Señor QWERTY.

[mvp 78]

This may drive the number crunchers crazy, but if a team plays all 162 scheduled games in a season, can it ever finish three games over .500?

 

Three wins better than break-even 81-81 is a record of 84-78 -- good enough to get the D-backs into the '23 World Series. But say a club is .500 at 78-78 -- and then wins its final six... isn't that six games over .500? Or just six better than .500?

 

82-80, two game diff; 83-79, four game diff... if the Sox are on pace for either, they probably still don't get a wild card game. These are the projections that can get 18 Asst. VPs arguing about buying or selling... or closing up Blooms like tulips on cold Spring nights.

 

Manfred just hasn't figured out a way to do ties yet!

[Maxbialystock]

You know, once in a while, someone says something really interesting on this board! Damn, you're right!!!

 

mvp 78 already said it and in fewer words.

 

In the AL it's tough to get a wild card bid with less than 90 wins and a winning percentage of .556. Right now the Sox are @ .543. Last year the Jays were a wild card with 89 wins and a winning percentage of .549.