A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Smith’s career numbers show a huge duo since 2020, and a look at his last unimpressive 3 are probably more relevant.

 

But Kavadas is like the 57th best prospect in the Sox system for a reason. He’s basically a left-handed, lesser version of Dalbec with worse defense.

 

Hard pass. Very hard. I’ll take my chances with Cooper…

 

It's easy to equate Kavadas with Dalbec, but I think that is unfair. He may very well be just like him, but you never really know. He walks more than Dalbec.

 

Fine. Keep Cooper the RHB. Replace the LHB Smith with the LHB Kavadas and play him some at 1B but more at DH. We've been using Smith and Cooper at DH, too much.

 

REF should DH vs LHPs and some RHPs and Kavadas vs more than half of the RHPs.

 

Our recent DHs, since Yoshi went down:

4 Smith

4 Cooper

3 O'Neill

2 Ref

1 Wong, Devers, Grissom

 

 

[Nick]

What about them?

 

I look more at recent 2-3, maybe 4 year sample sizes as being a better predictor than something that happened 3-4 years ago and beyond.

 

Cooper:

.807 up to 2021 (115 OPS+)

.731 2022 to now (101 OPS!+)

He turns 34 in December. His OPS has decline for 4 straight seasons, without interruption. He does have better recent numbers than Smith and bats RH'd.

 

Smith has more hope, as he turns 29, soon, but his "recent numbers" are worse than Cooper's.

.811 up to 2020 (117 OPS+)

.658 from 2021 to now (83 OPS+)

 

One could easily argue that continuing with these two, in hopes of an unlikely turn-around is "giving up on 2024."

 

Kavadas has a very good eye. He's not just about hitting homers. I don't see him as having a worse outlook than the 2 we have, now.

 

(Plus, calling up Kavadas only means parting with one of these two- likely the LH'd hitter Smith.)

 

 

 

Cooper and Smith are hired guns. They won't be back next year.

 

Like you said this is the year of discovery. Finding the core for next few years.

 

I think Duran has punched the ticket.

 

Grissom should get a long look.

[moonslav59]

Cooper and Smith are hired guns. They won't be back next year.

 

Like you said this is the year of discovery. Finding the core for next few years.

 

I think Duran has punched the ticket.

 

Grissom should get a long look.

 

While part of brining up Kavadas might be for "discovery," and he is Rule 5 guy, this winter, I also think he might have the same chance of doing something good as Cooper-Smith.

 

Keep one hire gun (Cooper, the RHB,) and let's see if Kavadas can help us, this year.

 

It's not like we can't pick up another Smith type, if Kavadas fails.

 

[moonslav59]

But Kavadas is like the 57th best prospect in the Sox system for a reason.

 

soxprospects.com has been pretty volatile with some rankings, lately. I'm not so sure this is as telling as it looks.

 

They ranked him 20th in DEC 2022, which is not that long ago. He struggled in about 100 PAs at AA in 2023, and for that he dropped to 57th. (BTW, he still had a .366 OBP that summer w POR.)

 

I'm not saying he will work out, but I think he deserves a chance in the bigs. We suck at 1B, so why not give the 25 year old a look-see?

[Duran Is The Man]

Smith’s career numbers show a huge dip since 2020, and a look at his last unimpressive 3 are probably more relevant.

 

But Kavadas is like the 57th best prospect in the Sox system for a reason. He’s basically a left-handed, lesser version of Dalbec with worse defense.

 

Hard pass. Very hard. I’ll take my chances with Cooper…

 

we already know that Smith, Cooper and Dalbec all suck. yes, Kavadas might suck as bad as Dalbec but we won't know until he gets a chance. this season is toast anyway. why not give him a chance?

[notin]

we already know that Smith, Cooper and Dalbec all suck. yes, Kavadas might suck as bad as Dalbec but we won't know until he gets a chance. this season is toast anyway. why not give him a chance?

 

I am going to go out on a crazy limb here and say it’s because if you asked Cora and Breslow if they thought they’re 23-24 team that was 1.5 games out of the postseason in mid/late May with one of the league’s pitching staffs, and were doing this despite missing 1/3 of the lineup, they might not really agree with the assessment that the season is toast.

 

And they would mean it, too…

[Hugh2]

we already know that Smith, Cooper and Dalbec all suck. yes, Kavadas might suck as bad as Dalbec but we won't know until he gets a chance. this season is toast anyway. why not give him a chance?

 

Well we know he’s a horrible runner and not a great defender, I highly doubt that gets better in the majors.

 

He also has a lot of swing and miss, that’s only going to get worse at the big league level

 

He also has serious platoon concerns but hasn’t been terrible against LHP in the minors. But again, that probably gets worse in the bigs.

 

With Casas out I would have been fine with him as a platoon option over Cooper. Apparently they didn’t think so

[dgalehouse]

The season is not toast. Winning the Division is certainly in the realm of the unrealistic. But with three wild card slots up for grabs, you can stay in contention just by hanging around .500.

[notin]

soxprospects.com has been pretty volatile with some rankings, lately. I'm not so sure this is as telling as it looks.

 

They ranked him 20th in DEC 2022, which is not that long ago. He struggled in about 100 PAs at AA in 2023, and for that he dropped to 57th. (BTW, he still had a .366 OBP that summer w POR.)

 

I'm not saying he will work out, but I think he deserves a chance in the bigs. We suck at 1B, so why not give the 25 year old a look-see?

 

First of all, 57th best prospect isn’t even a ranking; it’s borderline sarcasm. There are only 165 minor leaguers total. Half the Portland team and a third of Worcester are ranked higher. And Worcester especially has several guys (Alvarez, Contreras, Heineman, Westbrook) that no one considers prospects.

 

And what happens if he has a .400 OPS after 40 PA? Or does he get a real look, unlike Smith and Cooper? If Kavadas flops - Dalbec full time?

 

Give Cooper and Smith a chance. If you’ve already quit on the season, what’s the risk?

[Maxbialystock]

Cooper and Smith are hired guns. They won't be back next year.

 

Like you said this is the year of discovery. Finding the core for next few years.

 

I think Duran has punched the ticket.

 

Grissom should get a long look.

 

Grissom stinks, but you are dead right. He gets a long look.

[Maxbialystock]

The season is not toast. Winning the Division is certainly in the realm of the unrealistic. But with three wild card slots up for grabs, you can stay in contention just by hanging around .500.

 

Exactly my thinking. The rotation still looks decent/good, with or without Whitlock. The bullpen right now makes me nervous, but has been good. However, if Jansen continues to rely on just one pitch, his 90-93 mph cutter, he is going to get hit like he was last time out.

 

The key is whether the hitting will turn around. So no time like the present to see how they do at the Trop, the worst ballpark in MLB history.

[Maxbialystock]

I am going to go out on a crazy limb here and say it’s because if you asked Cora and Breslow if they thought they’re 23-24 team that was 1.5 games out of the postseason in mid/late May with one of the league’s pitching staffs, and were doing this despite missing 1/3 of the lineup, they might not really agree with the assessment that the season is toast.

 

And they would mean it, too…

 

Too early to call this season toast, especially with a rotation that has produced so many good starts.

[Randy Red Sox]

The season is not toast. Winning the Division is certainly in the realm of the unrealistic. But with three wild card slots up for grabs, you can stay in contention just by hanging around .500.

 

which is exactly what] they hope us Sox sap fans are buying

[Randy Red Sox]

Grissom stinks, but you are dead right. He gets a long look.

 

Grissom CAN'T stink. Everyone on here says Breslow won that trade with the Braves going away

[Old Red]

A reporter asked Cora after Friday’s game about slipping below 500, and Cora said they’d just win the next two game, and get back over 500. Well they didn’t win the next two games, and the Red Sox sit 1 game below 500 with a game in the loss column out of first place, and a game in the loss column out of last place, and continue the pattern of win some, lose some, win some, lose some, and most likely will continue to stay that way. Led by everyone’s hero Devers Forever or Never Devers the Red Sox scored 11 runs yesterday, and made the teams runs scored column look better then it really is, and some guys padded their stats yesterday too, and yes some didn’t like Grissom, and the RAF Man bringing up the rear. I applaud the die hards who watch every inning of every game, but I’m glad the good stuff will start up again with the C’s on Tuesday. Go C’s.

[Hugh2]

Grissom CAN'T stink. Everyone on here says Breslow won that trade with the Braves going away

 

Oh yeah, that's the argument right there.

 

Grissom might not every be a long term piece here. But the conversation surrounding him is a perfect example of how some fans, fans like you, can't see the forrest for the trees.

[Hugh2]

With that said Grissom should be sent to Worcester.

 

Kid might still have a very bright future, he's the youngest player on this team, was rushed to the majors but has plenty of options. He very well may of had a fine 2024 but he got injured and had no spring training. It's obvious that it effected his timing,

 

Valdez can platoon on 2nd, and hold it down for a month or two until Grissom has his groove back.

[Hugh2]

and by plenty of options I mean he has one, this is his last option year. Use it.

[Larry Cook]

With that said Grissom should be sent to Worcester.

 

Kid might still have a very bright future, he's the youngest player on this team, was rushed to the majors but has plenty of options. He very well may of had a fine 2024 but he got injured and had no spring training. It's obvious that it effected his timing,

 

Valdez can platoon on 2nd, and hold it down for a month or two until Grissom has his groove back.

 

Grissom looks terrible at the plate. Worcester is a great place to get his swing fixed

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Interesting article and chart on batters cutting down their swings with two strikes:

 

MLB hitters have a two-strike approach at plate

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Do hitters have a two-strike approach these days? To see the strikeout rate, which climbs and climbs each year, you’d say perhaps not; to hear old-timers tell it, you’d hear definitely not. We can’t really tell you what batters were thinking in 1924 or 1974 or even 2014. But in

 

Every MLB team's overall bat speed decreases in two-strike counts. Rays' batters lead the majors with the biggest decrease; the Red Sox have the smallest decrease in the AL.

 

Do those adjustments make a difference? Boston has the third most strikeouts in the AL. Tampa is fourth.

[Hugh2]

Grissom looks terrible at the plate. Worcester is a great place to get his swing fixed

 

 

Is it his swing? or his timing just messed up? Could be one in the same, not having a spring training and timing being off may be making him "press" and trying to switch things up.

 

Sometimes you need to tweak with things, other times you just need to be patient.

[Bellhorn04]

I have a grudge against the Sale-Grissom trade because I think it was part of the cheapskate mentality that has been hurting this team. A big market team shouldn't be offloading a talent like Sale just when it looks like he might be himself again and there's a chance to recoup some value from the contract. Nothing against Grissom, but now they've put all this pressure on him to come in and rake.

 

Not a fan of the trade at all.

[moonslav59]

 

With Casas out I would have been fine with him as a platoon option with Cooper. Apparently they didn’t think so

 

Fixed this for you.

[mvp 78]

Grissom stinks, but you are dead right. He gets a long look.

 

@redsoxstats

Grissom has a .171 BABIP so far. He's 1 for 11 on hard hit balls, including 2 line outs today. Obviously it's a slow start after no spring training, but add in some small sample ridiculousness around his debut, and it's just an amplified annoying stretch.

[mvp 78]

Grissom CAN'T stink. Everyone on here says Breslow won that trade with the Braves going away

 

Tyler O'Neilll: 11 HR, 932 OPS

[moonslav59]

First of all, 57th best prospect isn’t even a ranking; it’s borderline sarcasm. There are only 165 minor leaguers total. Half the Portland team and a third of Worcester are ranked higher. And Worcester especially has several guys (Alvarez, Contreras, Heineman, Westbrook) that no one considers prospects.

 

And what happens if he has a .400 OPS after 40 PA? Or does he get a real look, unlike Smith and Cooper? If Kavadas flops - Dalbec full time?

 

Give Cooper and Smith a chance. If you’ve already quit on the season, what’s the risk?

 

I haven't quit on the season. Although I do think giving him a look, now may help us know more about the future DH/back-up 1Bman options, I think Kavadas might be better than Smith as a platoon with Cooper. If not, we can find another Smith-type, very easily.

 

BTW, I do not think even a thirs of the Woo/Por rosters are better than Kavadas, and certainly not the ML ones.

[moonslav59]

Grissom has stunk, but you are dead right. He gets a long look.

 

Fixed this for you.

[moonslav59]

Grissom CAN'T stink. Everyone on here says Breslow won that trade with the Braves going away

 

"Everyone?"

[moonslav59]

Tyler O'Neilll: 11 HR, 932 OPS

 

O'Neill was another trade, and another trade for a player Randy disliked.

[mvp 78]

I have a grudge against the Sale-Grissom trade because I think it was part of the cheapskate mentality that has been hurting this team. A big market team shouldn't be offloading a talent like Sale just when it looks like he might be himself again and there's a chance to recoup some value from the contract. Nothing against Grissom, but now they've put all this pressure on him to come in and rake.

 

Not a fan of the trade at all.

 

It's fair to not like this trade. Sox may have not done well with their evaluation of Grissom. Cora had stated that Sale was the Opening Day starter for 2024. It was basically punting on the season to get control of a young MIFer, which I thought the Sox already had a bunch in the pipeline. Why not unload Sale for an arm if anything? Maybe this was the only thing they could get for the oft injured Sale?