A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

It's fair to not like this trade. Sox may have not done well with their evaluation of Grissom. Cora had stated that Sale was the Opening Day starter for 2024. It was basically punting on the season to get control of a young MIFer, which I thought the Sox already had a bunch in the pipeline. Why not unload Sale for an arm if anything? Maybe this was the only thing they could get for the oft injured Sale?

 

And if that's the only thing, why do it? And where does it fit into 2025 if Story is healthy and Mayer is ready?

 

(Yeah, I know, we'll trade one of them and make it all pay off that way. It's all about the future. f*** the present.)

[Bellhorn04]

@redsoxstats

Grissom has a .171 BABIP so far. He's 1 for 11 on hard hit balls, including 2 line outs today. Obviously it's a slow start after no spring training, but add in some small sample ridiculousness around his debut, and it's just an amplified annoying stretch.

 

Maybe he needs to start launching it into the air a bit? Might that help?

 

Looking at his MLB game logs, it appears he has gone about 50 games since his last home run. Maybe his failure to launch is a bit of a problem.

Edited May 20, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

111 Pitchers have 115+ IP, since May 25th, 2023. Here are some of the ERA rankings:

 

1. Snell 2.03

5. Senga 2.59

6. Cole 2.67

7. Lugo 2.75

9. Burnes 2.97

10. Pivetta 3.05

11. Monty 3.11

13. S Gray 3.16

27. Crawford 3.44

31. Houck 3.59

36. Wacha 3.64

48. Paxton 3.85

65. Bello 4.22

 

FWAR

12. Crawford 4.1

55. Houck 2.2

56. Pivetta 2.2

79. Bello 1.5

Edited May 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

And if that's the only thing, why do it? And where does it fit into 2025 if Story is healthy and Mayer is ready?

 

(Yeah, I know, we'll trade one of them and make it all pay off that way. It's all about the future. f*** the present.)

 

They figured out the OF, but the MIF is still a big question mark with Trevor Story stuck in there. IMO, just push Story to a backup role or at least plan on him being the parttime player. He has no trade value and if he's healthy, he provides more to the Sox if he sticks around.

[notin]

I have a grudge against the Sale-Grissom trade because I think it was part of the cheapskate mentality that has been hurting this team. A big market team shouldn't be offloading a talent like Sale just when it looks like he might be himself again and there's a chance to recoup some value from the contract. Nothing against Grissom, but now they've put all this pressure on him to come in and rake.

 

Not a fan of the trade at all.

 

When did Sale appear to have righted himself? He was traded December 30, long before reporting and actually pitching.

 

Would your opinion of this deal change if Sale suddenly got hurt?

[mvp 78]

Maybe he needs to start launching it into the air a bit? Might that help?

 

Looking at his MLB game logs, it appears he has gone about 50 games since his last home run. Maybe his failure to launch is a bit of a problem.

 

Are you looking to change his swing? It's only been 13 games. I think it's such a SSS issue right now that we should just ignore it.

 

He only had 8 HR's in AAA last year. Not sure he's a launch angle guy? Maybe just gap to gap?

[mvp 78]

When did Sale appear to have righted himself? He was traded December 30, long before reporting and actually pitching.

 

Would your opinion of this deal change if Sale suddenly got hurt?

 

The word was "he's finally healthy and going to have a full Spring Training." We had heard that song and dance before though.

[moonslav59]

Are you looking to change his swing? It's only been 13 games. I think it's such a SSS issue right now that we should just ignore it.

 

He only had 8 HR's in AAA last year. Not sure he's a launch angle guy? Maybe just gap to gap?

 

Agree. The SSS are not worth worrying about.

 

Same with Devers 40 PAs w RISP in 2024.

 

BTW, in 2024, Devers has a .720 OPS and 11 RBI in 41 PAs w RISP, which projects to over 150 RBI per 615 PAs

Edited May 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

They figured out the OF, but the MIF is still a big question mark with Trevor Story stuck in there. IMO, just push Story to a backup role or at least plan on him being the parttime player. He has no trade value and if he's healthy, he provides more to the Sox if he sticks around.

 

Story to 3b. Devers to 1b/DH with Casas…

[notin]

The word was "he's finally healthy and going to have a full Spring Training." We had heard that song and dance before though.

 

 

I’ve heard those words about lots of players who then wound up injured.

[Bellhorn04]

When did Sale appear to have righted himself? He was traded December 30, long before reporting and actually pitching.

 

Would your opinion of this deal change if Sale suddenly got hurt?

 

Will your opinion change if Grissom continues to have an OPS lower than Dalbec's?

 

C'mon man, it's possible to discuss this without doing it in hot takes. Sale looked good at the end of 2023. The Braves seem to have thought so. The Braves are generally regarded as one of the smarter organizations, last I checked.

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve heard those words about lots of players who then wound up injured.

 

A lot of baseball players get injured. Especially pitchers. I'm really starting to notice this.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you looking to change his swing? It's only been 13 games. I think it's such a SSS issue right now that we should just ignore it.

 

He only had 8 HR's in AAA last year. Not sure he's a launch angle guy? Maybe just gap to gap?

 

Home runs are not bad things. Nobody can catch them.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree. The SSS are not worth worrying about.

 

Unless they belong to Cooper and Smith, right?

[Old Red]

Will your opinion change if Grissom continues to have an OPS lower than Dalbec's?

 

C'mon man, it's possible to discuss this without doing it in hot takes. Sale looked good at the end of 2023. The Braves seem to have thought so. The Braves are generally regarded as one of the smarter organizations, last I checked.

 

When Sale got traded to the Braves I posted that I thought Sale was going to stay healthy this year, and have a big year for the Braves, and Notin said I couldn’t say that, because I did say that when he was with the Red Sox. Talk about C’mon man.🤭🙈

[Bellhorn04]

Agree. The SSS are not worth worrying about.

 

Same with Devers 40 PAs w RISP in 2024.

 

BTW, in 2024, Devers has a .720 OPS and 11 RBI in 41 PAs w RISP, which projects to over 150 RBI per 615 PAs

 

You're actually trying to draw an equivalence between Devers and Grissom?

[Bellhorn04]

When Sale got traded to the Braves I posted that I thought Sale was going to stay healthy this year, and have a big year for the Braves, and Notin said I couldn’t say that, because I did say that when he was with the Red Sox. Talk about C’mon man.🤭🙈

 

My attitude about Sale was that we had not much to lose by keeping him. Best case scenario he stays healthy and gets back to 80-90% of his old self. We were only on the hook for one more guaranteed year. Plus, what a lot of people don't realize is that the Sox also had an option on him for 2025.

 

But no, we had to do something splashy and clever-looking and trade him. And oh yeah, trim $10 million from the payroll. Henry really liked that last part.

[Old Red]

My attitude about Sale was that we had not much to lose by keeping him. Best case scenario he stays healthy and gets back to 80-90% of his old self. We were only on the hook for one more guaranteed year. Plus, what a lot of people don't realize is that the Sox also had an option on him for 2025.

 

But no, we had to do something splashy and clever-looking and trade him. And oh yeah, trim $10 million from the payroll. Henry really liked that last part.

 

I was fine when I first heard about the trade, but liked it less when I heard the Red Sox are still paying $17M to the Braves. Like you said it did save the Red Sox $10M.

[Old Red]

You're actually trying to draw an equivalence between Devers and Grissom?

 

I can’t believe all the dumping on poor lovable Devers Forever. He is on a homer streak now, so some are giddy on here, but i wouldn’t compare him in anyway to Gus Grissom.

[moonslav59]

You're actually trying to draw an equivalence between Devers and Grissom?

 

Sample size judgments, yes.

[moonslav59]

Unless they belong to Cooper and Smith, right?

 

I've answered this, already. I'm looking at those two guys last 500-100 PAs and they direction they are trending, along with one of them's age.

[moonslav59]

Story to 3b. Devers to 1b/DH with Casas…

 

I agree.

 

2025 template

1B: Devers/Casas (by "resting" at DH, they can start more games and maybe avoid some injuries)

DH: Casas/Devers

2B: Grissom (Story)

SS: Mayer (Story/Rafaela)

3B: Story (Devers)

C: Wong, McGuire (Teel)

LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Abreu)

CF: Rafaela/Duran (Anthony)

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder (Anthony)

Utility: Romy/DHam (Yorke/Valdez)

 

 

[moonslav59]

My attitude about Sale was that we had not much to lose by keeping him. Best case scenario he stays healthy and gets back to 80-90% of his old self. We were only on the hook for one more guaranteed year. Plus, what a lot of people don't realize is that the Sox also had an option on him for 2025.

 

But no, we had to do something splashy and clever-looking and trade him. And oh yeah, trim $10 million from the payroll. Henry really liked that last part.

 

Certainly, the money saved was what JH liked, and if the budget was a set one, probably Brez, too, but I really think they thought Grissom might outplay (in both senses of the word) Sale in 2024.

 

So far, that has not happened.

[Bellhorn04]

I've answered this, already. I'm looking at those two guys last 500-100 PAs and they direction they are trending, along with one of them's age.

 

Breslow knew all that when he acquired them. They're stopgaps. They should be capable of a .700 OPS. You want to jettison them because they didn't do that over 40-50 PA's.

 

Maybe you need to explain your sample size principles in more detail because to me they seem to be all over the place.

Edited May 20, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Larry Cook]

I agree.

 

2025 template

1B: Devers/Casas (by "resting" at DH, they can start more games and maybe avoid some injuries)

DH: Casas/Devers

2B: Grissom (Story)

SS: Mayer (Story/Rafaela)

3B: Story (Devers)

C: Wong, McGuire (Teel)

LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Abreu)

CF: Rafaela/Duran (Anthony)

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder (Anthony)

Utility: Romy/DHam (Yorke/Valdez)

 

 

 

I have been impressed with Romy, despite the small sample size. His at bats look good so far.

[Randy Red Sox]

Breslow knew all that when he acquired them. They're stopgaps. They should be capable of a .700 OPS. You want to jettison them because they didn't do that over 40-50 PA's.

 

Maybe you need to explain your sample size principles in more detail because to me they seem to be all over the place.

 

every move John Henry makes is with the goal of saving money

[mvp 78]

Story to 3b. Devers to 1b/DH with Casas…

 

Why move Devers off position for a guy that can't even stay on the field?

[mvp 78]

Will your opinion change if Grissom continues to have an OPS lower than Dalbec's?

 

C'mon man, it's possible to discuss this without doing it in hot takes. Sale looked good at the end of 2023. The Braves seem to have thought so. The Braves are generally regarded as one of the smarter organizations, last I checked.

 

Braves also jumped at the chance for an extension. They are closer to competing so risking $$$ on Sale makes more sense for them.

[mvp 78]

Home runs are not bad things. Nobody can catch them.

 

Ok? He's never been a big HR guy though?

[mvp 78]

My attitude about Sale was that we had not much to lose by keeping him. Best case scenario he stays healthy and gets back to 80-90% of his old self. We were only on the hook for one more guaranteed year. Plus, what a lot of people don't realize is that the Sox also had an option on him for 2025.

 

But no, we had to do something splashy and clever-looking and trade him. And oh yeah, trim $10 million from the payroll. Henry really liked that last part.

 

If he was good, Sox could spin him at the deadline and not eat a lot of salary if the Sox were out of it. Sox just wanted to cash out and get a CONTROL of a guy like Grissom. This is a Betts-lite trade.