A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I'll say this, in spite of all their shortcomings the team has fought hard almost every game. It's not that guys aren't trying, there are just too many that aren't very good (by MLB standards).

[notin]

As good as I do right now. Because we're going to be seeing plenty more of the David Hamilton types.

 

And how good is that? B-R has them at about 1 in 8 chance for making the playoffs. Probably a bit high, unless they have some serious luck avoiding injuries...

[notin]

I'll say this, in spite of all their shortcomings the team has fought hard almost every game. It's not that guys aren't trying, there are just too many that aren't very good (by MLB standards).

 

They also have a lot of hitters underperforming. Some of them will turn it around, but some will probably also just continue and have a bad season...

[Bellhorn04]

And how good is that? B-R has them at about 1 in 8 chance for making the playoffs. Probably a bit high, unless they have some serious luck avoiding injuries...

 

That luck already went bad IMHO. Story, Casas, and yes even Yoshida-we were thin to start with, now we're emaciated.

[notin]

That luck already went bad IMHO. Story, Casas, and yes even Yoshida-we were thin to start with, now we're emaciated.

 

Story played 8 games. He's been a non-factor. The biggest issue there was how long the Sox went before Cora decided to commit to Rafaela at shortstop. That one little change elevated the defense a surprising amount. It didn't cure it, but it was certainly more progress than perfection.

 

Right now the biggest flaw on this Sox team is they're not playing like Traditional Red Sox teams. This team is winning with pitching and improving defense as opposed to just slugging their way through the season...

[moonslav59]

So you think the Sox will ignore the need for a RHH power bat?

 

Yes.

 

Unless, we find a middle infielder, but maybe Story fills that role.

 

As everyone knows, I'm big on L-R splits and platoons, but we have a lot of reverse splits going on with this team.

 

We do look pretty bad vs LHPs.

 

2024 splits:

 

.717 v RHPs (.411 SLG w 38 HRs in 1237 PAs))

.698 v LHPs (.362 SLG w just 7 HRs in 443 PAs)

 

More remarkable:

.744 when a RHP starts

.623 when a LHP starts.

 

I think we will put our hopes on Rafaela, Story and Grissom to improve on these splits for 2025.

 

Ref has a very surprising reverse split, this year:

.726 v L

1.139 v R (leads team, and his 37 PAs is 6th on the team)

 

[notin]

On the Sox defense:

 

How many people realized Duran is second in MLB in DRS for a CF? And is also 5th in MLB in DRS for a left fielder?

 

This former defensive question mark is answering a lot of questions right now...

[Bellhorn04]

Story played 8 games. He's been a non-factor. The biggest issue there was how long the Sox went before Cora decided to commit to Rafaela at shortstop. That one little change elevated the defense a surprising amount. It didn't cure it, but it was certainly more progress than perfection.

 

But we allowed 2 more unearned runs last night and 2 the night before that. Whenever we make an error it seems to have disastrous consequences.

[notin]

Yes.

 

Unless, we find a middle infielder, but maybe Story fills that role.

 

As everyone knows, I'm big on L-R splits and platoons, but we have a lot of reverse splits going on with this team.

 

We do look pretty bad vs LHPs.

 

2024 splits:

 

.717 v RHPs (.411 SLG w 38 HRs in 1237 PAs))

.698 v LHPs (.362 SLG w just 7 HRs in 443 PAs)

 

More remarkable:

.744 when a RHP starts

.623 when a LHP starts.

 

I think we will put our hopes on Rafaela, Story and Grissom to improve on these splits for 2025.

 

Ref has a very surprising reverse split, this year:

.726 v L

1.139 v R (leads team, and his 37 PAs is 6th on the team)

 

 

They do have Story a while longer, but he's not exactly proving to be reliable. And I very much doubt they bring in another SS and role with Story or Mayer in the future.

 

At 2b, unless they sign Gleyber Torres, and Torres actually remembers how to hit, there are not many options for a RHH there with some pop. Grissom is on the short list of other options...

[moonslav59]

Here are the OPS in order of most PAs for 2024. Rafaela being 2nd in PAs is both surprising and a big hit to the team's OPS.

 

Red= likely to get the same or more PAs, going forward, assuming minimal injuries

Black= unknown

Blue= likely to get less PAs, going forward

 

135-200 PAs

.784 Duran (continue FT)

.595 Rafaela (continue FT, likely batting 9th)

.902 Devers (continue FT)

.924 O'Neill (despite missing time)

.830 Abreu (should end up in the top 4-5 in PAs)

 

85-110 PAs

.900 Wong (hopefully, he continues hitting well and gets some PAs as a DH)

.452 Valdez (may not play much more for BOS in 2024)

.857 Casas (will miss a lot more time)

.736 Yoshida (a big question mark)

.663 McGuire (may catch more as we use Wong at DH. he has been slumping.)

 

40-65 PAs

.964 Refsnyder (with leading the team in hitting RHPs, he may play near FT, going forward- DH/LF)

.451 Reyes (may not get another PA with BOS, this year)

.377 Dalbec (see Reyes comment)

.563 DHam (Romy should take away many of his PAs, going forward)

.317 Grissom (likely to be FT'er going forward)

.450 Smith and .584 Copper (likely to get almost all the PAs at 1B, unless we make a change.)

 

20-40

.617 Story (out for the year)

.664 Romy (looks to be the primary IF utility player)

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Enough on Sale v. Grissom.

 

I'm looking at the MLB standings and can see the Sox run differential is +29. That's pretty good, but it's misleading. The Rays run differential is -28, and they just took 3 of 4 at the Fens and are now 1/2 game ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

To me nothing could be clearer than that this Sox team, whose pitching staff leads MLB in team ERA, simply doesn't know how to win games as reflected in their abysmal defense and weak hitting. They are ranked 16th in MLB in runs scored, which is really lousy for a Sox team that plays home games at the Fens. Plus, as I persist in reminding people, those 188 runs scored are juiced by the 17 scored against the Cubs last month when they used an infielder to pitch the 9th inning and gave up 6 more runs.

 

One telltale--we all know about this--is that Rafaela, who bats 9th and has an OPS of .595, leads the team in rbi's with 23. That's 6 more than Duran, 7 more than Devers or O'Neill, and 8 more than Wong or Abreu. Duran's OPS is .784, Devers .902, O'Neill .924, Wong .900, and Abreu .830.

[moonslav59]

On the Sox defense:

 

How many people realized Duran is second in MLB in DRS for a CF? And is also 5th in MLB in DRS for a left fielder?

 

This former defensive question mark is answering a lot of questions right now...

 

He looked much better in 2023, as compared to before, so this does not appear to be a fluke.

 

He reminds me of Jacoby's turn-around on D.

 

I still prefer him in LF, especially, if a Rafaela/Anthony CF and Abreu/Anthony RF materializes, as we hope it does.

[Bellhorn04]

One telltale--we all know about this--is that Rafaela, who bats 9th and has an OPS of .595, leads the team in rbi's with 23. That's 6 more than Duran, 7 more than Devers or O'Neill, and 8 more than Wong or Abreu. Duran's OPS is .784, Devers .902, O'Neill .924, Wong .900, and Abreu .830.

 

And as I said earlier, the Dodgers have 6 guys with more than 23 RBI.

[Bellhorn04]

Pure luck?

 

The TJ surgery everyone said he would eventually need was bad luck? His herky-jerky elbow flexing motion and a repertoire loaded with 4 seamer s and sliders leading to TJ was not luck. The only luck was involved in the timing of it.

 

Falling of his bicycle might be considered bad luck, although one also might call it bad judgment. Given all the contract restrictions players get, I'm surprised he was allowed to ride anything that moved faster than a stationary bike...

 

I meant pure luck going forward BTW. Situation wasn't the right word.

[notin]

But we allowed 2 more unearned runs last night and 2 the night before that. Whenever we make an error it seems to have disastrous consequences.

 

We also have one less win if Rafaela doesn't keep that grounder in the infield in game two. Defense is not always about errors and unearned runs, as it also needs to include preventing hits.

 

Right now the Sox have allowed 159 runs in 44 games, 6th fewest in MLB (and some of the teams below them have played fewer games). We credit all of that to pitching, but that's simply not reality. The defense is playing overall much better with less Reyes and Hamilton and Valdez (who did show some improvement as the season wore on). Have you forgotten how questionable they looked then? No one could so much as catch a throw once it touched the dirt. It was like the whole infield decided to play without their contact lenses.

 

They are betetr now. Certainly not perfect, maybe not even good. But most definitely better...

[notin]

I meant pure luck going forward BTW. Situation wasn't the right word.

 

Understood.

 

They have had some bad luck already on that front. But everyone needs it going forward...

[notin]

And as I said earlier, the Dodgers have 6 guys with more than 23 RBI.

 

And have given up 25 more earned runs than the Red Sox. Who thought that would be an accurate statement in mid-May?

[notin]

He looked much better in 2023, as compared to before, so this does not appear to be a fluke.

 

He reminds me of Jacoby's turn-around on D.

 

I still prefer him in LF, especially, if a Rafaela/Anthony CF and Abreu/Anthony RF materializes, as we hope it does.

 

With Rafaela on board for 8 more years, Duran's reign in CF likely ends after this season, one way or another...

[Bellhorn04]

Understood.

 

They have had some bad luck already on that front. But everyone needs it going forward...

 

I was just talking about Sale's health status going forward being a matter of luck.

 

He could win the CYA this year, or he could have a career-ending injury any time, and no one should be shocked by either.

[notin]

Enough on Sale v. Grissom.

 

I'm looking at the MLB standings and can see the Sox run differential is +29. That's pretty good, but it's misleading. The Rays run differential is -28, and they just took 3 of 4 at the Fens and are now 1/2 game ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

To me nothing could be clearer than that this Sox team, whose pitching staff leads MLB in team ERA, simply doesn't know how to win games as reflected in their abysmal defense and weak hitting. They are ranked 16th in MLB in runs scored, which is really lousy for a Sox team that plays home games at the Fens. Plus, as I persist in reminding people, those 188 runs scored are juiced by the 17 scored against the Cubs last month when they used an infielder to pitch the 9th inning and gave up 6 more runs.

 

One telltale--we all know about this--is that Rafaela, who bats 9th and has an OPS of .595, leads the team in rbi's with 23. That's 6 more than Duran, 7 more than Devers or O'Neill, and 8 more than Wong or Abreu. Duran's OPS is .784, Devers .902, O'Neill .924, Wong .900, and Abreu .830.

 

I noticed last week a big reason Rafaela leads the team in RBIs is he has come up with more runners on base than anyone else. Now the reason for that is he has not been injured this year, as opposed to nearly everyone else. There is no other way the number 9 hitter would be second on any team in PA, and not, you know, ninth...

[notin]

I was just talking about Sale's health status going forward being a matter of luck.

 

He could win the CYA this year, or he could have a career-ending injury any time, and no one should be shocked by either.

 

Sale falls into that same category as Eovaldi and a few others like Fried and Buehler: his issues are not at all related to talent...

[notin]

Things were a lot different way back then. I don’t no more the Lowell, but you’re NNN.

 

No they really weren’t. Until two years ago, teams played teams in their divisions 18-19 times every year. You don’t think seeing a team that often helped hitters get familiarized with pitchers?

[Maxbialystock]

I noticed last week a big reason Rafaela leads the team in RBIs is he has come up with more runners on base than anyone else. Now the reason for that is he has not been injured this year, as opposed to nearly everyone else. There is no other way the number 9 hitter would be second on any team in PA, and not, you know, ninth...

 

Ahem. Duran leads the team in AB's with 180--vs Rafaela's 149.

 

Also, Devers, our $30M/season superstar, has 125 AB's and 16 rbi's to Rafaela's 23. So Devers with his .902 OPS gets one rbi every 7.8 AB's and Rafaela with his .595 OPS gets one rbi every 6.5 at bats.

 

But nice try.

 

The simple fact is that this team can't hit when it counts. And, sadly, they do make errors when those count.

[Randy Red Sox]

Enough on Sale v. Grissom.

 

I'm looking at the MLB standings and can see the Sox run differential is +29. That's pretty good, but it's misleading. The Rays run differential is -28, and they just took 3 of 4 at the Fens and are now 1/2 game ahead of the Sox in the AL East.

 

To me nothing could be clearer than that this Sox team, whose pitching staff leads MLB in team ERA, simply doesn't know how to win games as reflected in their abysmal defense and weak hitting. They are ranked 16th in MLB in runs scored, which is really lousy for a Sox team that plays home games at the Fens. Plus, as I persist in reminding people, those 188 runs scored are juiced by the 17 scored against the Cubs last month when they used an infielder to pitch the 9th inning and gave up 6 more runs.

 

One telltale--we all know about this--is that Rafaela, who bats 9th and has an OPS of .595, leads the team in rbi's with 23. That's 6 more than Duran, 7 more than Devers or O'Neill, and 8 more than Wong or Abreu. Duran's OPS is .784, Devers .902, O'Neill .924, Wong .900, and Abreu .830.

 

why enough on Sale vs Grissom? People on here still talk about Mookie on a regular basis. the reason Sale vs Grissom talk is- is because it is relevant to THIS season. Almost everyone on here was giddy on the trade calling it a clear win for the Sox. I would say today that the only one happy is John Henry and his pocket book. It's very early but right now Grissom looks like Jeter Downs 2.0

[notin]

Ahem. Duran leads the team in AB's with 180--vs Rafaela's 149.

 

Also, Devers, our $30M/season superstar, has 125 AB's and 16 rbi's to Rafaela's 23. So Devers with his .902 OPS gets one rbi every 7.8 AB's and Rafaela with his .595 OPS gets one rbi every 6.5 at bats.

 

But nice try.

 

The simple fact is that this team can't hit when it counts. And, sadly, they do make errors when those count.

 

Rafaela has come up with 107 runners on base (most on the team). and has driven 19 of them (plus himself 4 times). So Rafaela has driven in 17.7% of the runners on base.

 

The only player with more PAs, Duran, has come up with 86 runners on base and has driven in 15 of them (plus himself twice). So Duran has driven in 17.4% of the runners on base,

 

Devers has come up with 88 runs on base, and has drive in 10 of them (plus himself 6 times). So Devers has driven in 11% of the runners on base.

 

Those numbers for both Duran and Rafaela are actually probably a but higher than the 16% league average most hitters drive in. But by the same token, Devers' percentage is far too low, although somewhat influenced being pitched around.

 

For some perspective, MLB RBI leader Marcell Ozuna has come up with 123 men on base, and driven in 29 of them (plus himself 12 times). For 23.5% driven in.

 

Devers and especially O'Neill are down on driving in those runners on base, but Rafaela and Duran are actually on the positive side of the league. But even if Devers was driving in 16% of the runners on base, he would still only have 20 RBIs (14 baserunners and himself 6 times). And if he driving them in at the same rate as Ozuna, he would still only have 26 RBIs, a far cry from Ozuna, because, 40 more base runners on.

 

Coming up with so few men on base certainly hurts Devers. Only hitting 6HRs so far does as well, and of course being a slow starter doesn't help. Historically, April is Devers' second worst month, better only than August. However in 2020, his slow start took place in July, and it was probably his slowest start ever (.536 OPS), and that makes me wonder how good his "real July" numbers would be considering he still carries a .981 career OPS that month...

[Randy Red Sox]

I'm still not down on this team.

 

They're not under .500. They're not in last place. They have been exactly what I said - better than everyone anticipated.

 

Some of the offense will come around. Some of it will continue to flounder. But before April ended, this team lost Giolito, Story, and Casas, and lost time from numerous others and is still managing to stay above .500. They might not actually be as bad as anticipated.

 

Also I do not think one more 78-84 season will convince Henry to sell. Anyone who believes that while doubting what the team is actually doing has very questionable judgment...

 

Why would Henry even consider selling? Idiot fans like us are still coming out in droves and his profit margin is greater than ever with the reduced payroll which stands to get even lower when Anthony, Tell, and Mayer make it to Boston.

[Maxbialystock]

Rafaela has come up with 107 runners on base (most on the team). and has driven 19 of them (plus himself 4 times). So Rafaela has driven in 17.7% of the runners on base.

 

The only player with more PAs, Duran, has come up with 86 runners on base and has driven in 15 of them (plus himself twice). So Duran has driven in 17.4% of the runners on base,

 

Devers has come up with 88 runs on base, and has drive in 10 of them (plus himself 6 times). So Devers has driven in 11% of the runners on base.

 

Those numbers for both Duran and Rafaela are actually probably a but higher than the 16% league average most hitters drive in. But by the same token, Devers' percentage is far too low, although somewhat influenced being pitched around.

 

For some perspective, MLB RBI leader Marcell Ozuna has come up with 123 men on base, and driven in 29 of them (plus himself 12 times). For 23.5% driven in.

 

Devers and especially O'Neill are down on driving in those runners on base, but Rafaela and Duran are actually on the positive side of the league. But even if Devers was driving in 16% of the runners on base, he would still only have 20 RBIs (14 baserunners and himself 6 times). And if he driving them in at the same rate as Ozuna, he would still only have 26 RBIs, a far cry from Ozuna, because, 40 more base runners on.

 

Coming up with so few men on base certainly hurts Devers. Only hitting 6HRs so far does as well, and of course being a slow starter doesn't help. Historically, April is Devers' second worst month, better only than August. However in 2020, his slow start took place in July, and it was probably his slowest start ever (.536 OPS), and that makes me wonder how good his "real July" numbers would be considering he still carries a .981 career OPS that month...

 

All good stuff. Thanks.

[Old Red]

No they really weren’t. Until two years ago, teams played teams in their divisions 18-19 times every year. You don’t think seeing a team that often helped hitters get familiarized with pitchers?

 

Like I said you used the same excuse of not hitting for JBJ of all people who never hit again, and retired at a somewhat early age. If you want to think that the things are the same today as they were 18 yrs ago then by all means think so.

[Old Red]

I wouldn't worry about it.

 

Probably a much better chance he gets traded at the deadline and is forgotten about.

I’m not worrying about it, because I think there is no chance of that happening. Once Notin starts beating the drum he’s all in. Gallo, Chapman were others he beat the drums for that didn’t happen either. He was all for JBJ though. If O’Neill stays healthy, which is a big if I agree more likely he gets traded.

[Nick]

I get the L-R balancing act.

 

But I was thinking we could live with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu in the OF.

 

My problem is can we find a ss better than Rafaela? Just not coumting on Story. He looks like Chris Sale injury wise. Not sure how dependable he will be going forward.