A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Oh that darn switching leagues thing again. You even used the same excuse for JBJ of all people.

 

So tell us why it’s false. Mike Lowell said when he came to Boston that it was difficult not because of the top tier pitchers, as he’d seen them before. But the sheer volume of lesser pitchers made it a tough change at first.

 

Are you saying you know more about it than Mike Lowell?

[Duran Is The Man]

44 games and right at .500. That's about what many of us expected for the season, but how we got here was a little surprising- a lot in some cases.

 

4 Game Report Card:

 

A+

The rotation (2.62 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a .623 OPS Against)

Wong (Only O'Neill and Devers have more PAs and a better OPS than his .900 line.)

 

A

O'Neill and Refsnyder (would be A+ had they not been hurt. .964 Ref and .924 O'Neill)

Duran (He has had a nice all around start to '24. Good D, 21 XGHs, 9 SBs and a decent .784 OPS)

 

A-

The pen (.620 OPS Against is actually better than our rotation! 1.17 WHIP is not bad)

Devers (.902 OPS and better D maybe should place him at A, but untimely hitting & key errors have hurt.)

Abreu (His D has looked better than I expected and the .830 OPS is solid.)

 

B+

(Big gap between A- and C)

 

B

None

 

B-

McGuire (His O has dipped, of late (.663 OPS,) but his defense and staff-handling has been superb.)

 

C+

None

 

C

Rafaela (Tough to grade this highly with a .595 OPS and so many errors, but he has made a lot of plays nobody else makes, and he leads the team in RBI.)

 

C-

 

D+

Base running (due to several costly blunders)

 

D

Our defense (better than the F of 2023)

 

D-

Cooper (He could easily be an F with his .584 OPS, but when you compare him to Smith & Dalbec...)

 

F

Henry (no explanation needed)

D Smith (.450) and Dalbec (.377) have really hurt the team over 100 PAs.

DHam (.563,) Valdez (.452,) and Reyes (.451) have hurt as much as our 1Bmen, and they have 216 PAs!

 

INC

Casas (.857 was a good start, and his D looked better, but missing 2-3+ months will hurt like HELL!)

Yoshida (.736 was okay, but all those ground outs to 2B are getting annoying.)

Grissom (starting off like an F, despite decent defense in his SSS)

Romy (He has looked good on D and has some key hits in his short time on the field.)

Breslow (too early to tell but starting out like an A to A-)

Cora (too early to tell but has looked decent, B+ to

 

Pitcher score card: (I'm factoring in what was expected to a certain degree)

 

with OPS Against listed

 

A+

Houck .542

Crawford .579

Bernardino .400

 

A

Slaten .476

 

A-

 

B+

Weissert .659

 

B

Criswell .671 (Maybe an A- based on expectations and a B- without)

 

B-

Bello .658 (He did better in the second half, last year)

Booser .594

Anderson .604

 

C+

Jansen .542 OPS Against is awesome but too many let downs (too many BBs)

 

C

Martin .664 (Turning things around, after a bad start to year)

 

C-

Winckowski (Could be INC or D+)

 

D+

D

D-

 

F

Joely

Campbell (could be INC)

Jacques

 

INC

Pivetta .763

Whitlock .616

Kelly .470

Uwasawa .464

 

i didn't see Story on your list. i'd put him with Henry and give him and F. tempted to do the same with Casas and Yoshida. if they can't stay healthy and play, they're useless. see Sale, Chris.

[Old Red]

So tell us why it’s false. Mike Lowell said when he came to Boston that it was difficult not because of the top tier pitchers, as he’d seen them before. But the sheer volume of lesser pitchers made it a tough change at first.

 

Are you saying you know more about it than Mike Lowell?

 

Things were a lot different way back then. I don’t no more the Lowell, but you’re NNN.

[Duran Is The Man]

I would extend Duran and Abreu.

 

yes.

[Duran Is The Man]

Duran has another pre-arb year and Abreu has two more.

 

The issue is neither bats right-handed and the OF is getting crowded. Duran might best be used as trade bait at some point…

 

knowing the idiots running the Sox FO, they'll probably trade Duran to the Dodgers for some low-level minor league prospect who will flame out in 2 years while Duran goes on to become an All-star.

[Bellhorn04]

I can honestly say this is the first season in a very long time, maybe ever, that Red Sox losses don't cut me very deep. Part of me clearly wants to see the owners and front office embarrassed. I'm not proud of it but I can't seem to help it.

[moonslav59]

i didn't see Story on your list. i'd put him with Henry and give him and F. tempted to do the same with Casas and Yoshida. if they can't stay healthy and play, they're useless. see Sale, Chris.

 

I guess Story would get an F, because he is not coming back- same with Gio.

[moonslav59]

Jury is out on O'Neill, but I think an extension might not be bad idea.

 

They did give up on Renfroe after one year, but who didn't? Renfroe has become the MLB equivalent that girl everyone dated in middle school because she let everyone go further.

 

Bradley and Kike were not here for one year...

 

Yes, Kike's first deal was for 2 years, and JBJ had an option with a huge buy out for year 2. My bad.

 

Pillar did not stay for all of 2020.

[Randy Red Sox]

I can honestly say this is the first season in a very long time, maybe ever, that Red Sox losses don't cut me very deep. Part of me clearly wants to see the owners and front office embarrassed. I'm not proud of it but I can't seem to help it.

 

you and me both. I am not disappointed when the Sox lose. When John Henry starts caring again so will I.

[Duran Is The Man]

you and me both. I am not disappointed when the Sox lose. When John Henry starts caring again so will I.

 

yep. but i think the sad fact is, the ONLY thing JH cares about is his bank account.

[moonslav59]

He definitely accepts a QO. But it takes him from being $5.85mill player to being a $19mill player.

 

I’m thinking more like $24/27mill over 3 years. Same AAV for 1-2 years is fine, but he’s too injury-prone to go longer than 3…

 

We'd likely try to find the next Renfroe/Duvall/O'Neill over paying an OF'er over $10M, let alone a QO.

 

More likely, we just roll the dice with what we have coming back:

 

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida

CF: Rafaela, Duran (Anthony)

RF: Abreu (Anthony)

 

If Anthony comes through, we can even handle an injury or two.

 

As well as our staff is doing, now, I'd still invest in pitching and maybe middle infield, again.

[moonslav59]

I can honestly say this is the first season in a very long time, maybe ever, that Red Sox losses don't cut me very deep. Part of me clearly wants to see the owners and front office embarrassed. I'm not proud of it but I can't seem to help it.

 

We expected losing.

 

Accepting it as what it is, is harder, but that seems to be happening, too- to varying degrees with each of us.

[notin]

knowing the idiots running the Sox FO, they'll probably trade Duran to the Dodgers for some low-level minor league prospect who will flame out in 2 years while Duran goes on to become an All-star.

 

I do think the Dodgers are an unlikely destination, given they don't have a huge need for OF help. I suppose they could replace Teoscar in LF, but they also will eventually give a full time role to Andy Pages. But other teams with very weak positional farm systems (Atlanta? Miami?) that are top-heavy with pitching prospects are not out of the realm of possibility. Miami did unload their #2 overall prospect (RHP Jake Eder) for Jake Burger last year, so they do have a history of dealing young pitching for position players.

 

I'm still not down on the Sale/Grissom trade yet. Grissom has 5 years left and shouldn't be judged solely on 40 PA, while Sale has a rather long history in recent years of not pitching a full season. Just because he has gone 49 IP without getting injured doesn't mean he is suddenly cured. He has not topped 103 IP since 2019, and I don't think anyone would be surprised if that streak continued...

[Bellhorn04]

The jury isn’t out on O’Neill he is what he is, and I think an extension at this point would be a BAD idea.

 

I wouldn't worry about it.

 

Probably a much better chance he gets traded at the deadline and is forgotten about.

[notin]

We expected losing.

 

Accepting it as what it is, is harder, but that seems to be happening, too- to varying degrees with each of us.

 

I'm still not down on this team.

 

They're not under .500. They're not in last place. They have been exactly what I said - better than everyone anticipated.

 

Some of the offense will come around. Some of it will continue to flounder. But before April ended, this team lost Giolito, Story, and Casas, and lost time from numerous others and is still managing to stay above .500. They might not actually be as bad as anticipated.

 

Also I do not think one more 78-84 season will convince Henry to sell. Anyone who believes that while doubting what the team is actually doing has very questionable judgment...

[notin]

I wouldn't worry about it.

 

Probably a much better chance he gets traded at the deadline and is forgotten about.

 

If Bloom was here, he wouldn't get traded, as an actual decision would be involved. Breslow? We don't know yet. Also there is still a chance the Sox are buying as opposed to selling...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still not down on the Sale/Grissom trade yet. Grissom has 5 years left and shouldn't be judged solely on 40 PA, while Sale has a rather long history in recent years of not pitching a full season. Just because he has gone 49 IP without getting injured doesn't mean he is suddenly cured. He has not topped 103 IP since 2019, and I don't think anyone would be surprised if that streak continued...

 

His injury situation is pure luck one way or the other. But lately he's been pitching like the Sale of old, total domination.

[notin]

We'd likely try to find the next Renfroe/Duvall/O'Neill over paying an OF'er over $10M, let alone a QO.

 

More likely, we just roll the dice with what we have coming back:

 

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida

CF: Rafaela, Duran (Anthony)

RF: Abreu (Anthony)

 

If Anthony comes through, we can even handle an injury or two.

 

As well as our staff is doing, now, I'd still invest in pitching and maybe middle infield, again.

 

So you think the Sox will ignore the need for a RHH power bat?

[Bellhorn04]

If Bloom was here, he wouldn't get traded, as an actual decision would be involved. Breslow? We don't know yet. Also there is still a chance the Sox are buying as opposed to selling...

 

It's not a strong chance. We're trotting out lineups game after game with one truly proven hitter in Devers. If Casas is back soon that could change, but I don't think the prognosis on that happening is very good.

[notin]

His injury situation is pure luck one way or the other. But lately he's been pitching like the Sale of old, total domination.

 

Pure luck?

 

The TJ surgery everyone said he would eventually need was bad luck? His herky-jerky elbow flexing motion and a repertoire loaded with 4 seamer s and sliders leading to TJ was not luck. The only luck was involved in the timing of it.

 

Falling of his bicycle might be considered bad luck, although one also might call it bad judgment. Given all the contract restrictions players get, I'm surprised he was allowed to ride anything that moved faster than a stationary bike...

[dgalehouse]

Duran has another pre-arb year and Abreu has two more.

 

The issue is neither bats right-handed and the OF is getting crowded. Duran might best be used as trade bait at some point…

 

I think one of the best things Breslow did in the off season was to not trade Duran. The many trade suggestions on this forum were ill advised. Other than Devers (and possibly Casas) Duran is key to the success of this club. And he is still young and still improving.

[Bellhorn04]

Pure luck?

 

The TJ surgery everyone said he would eventually need was bad luck? His herky-jerky elbow flexing motion and a repertoire loaded with 4 seamer s and sliders leading to TJ was not luck. The only luck was involved in the timing of it.

 

Falling of his bicycle might be considered bad luck, although one also might call it bad judgment. Given all the contract restrictions players get, I'm surprised he was allowed to ride anything that moved faster than a stationary bike...

 

Every second pitcher has TJ surgery now. There are no Greg Madduxes any more. Not even Verlander or Scherzer could stay healthy.

[Duran Is The Man]

I think one of the best things Breslow did in the off season was to not trade Duran. The many trade suggestions on this forum were ill advised. Other than Devers (and possibly Casas) Duran is key to the success of this club. And he is still young and still improving.

 

i agree. why on earth would anyone trade him?

[notin]

It's not a strong chance. We're trotting out lineups game after game with one truly proven hitter in Devers. If Casas is back soon that could change, but I don't think the prognosis on that happening is very good.

 

If I told you in February, the Sox would about half of their fist 44 games without Casas, Yoshida, Grissom, and Story, and lose Giolito for the year, and Pivetta and Bello to IL stints. And go a couple weeks with a starting infield that included Reyes and David Hamilton, what would you have expected for their record after 44 games? What odds would you give that team to make the post-season?

[moonslav59]

I'm still not down on this team.

 

They're not under .500. They're not in last place. They have been exactly what I said - better than everyone anticipated.

 

Some of the offense will come around. Some of it will continue to flounder. But before April ended, this team lost Giolito, Story, and Casas, and lost time from numerous others and is still managing to stay above .500. They might not actually be as bad as anticipated.

 

Also I do not think one more 78-84 season will convince Henry to sell. Anyone who believes that while doubting what the team is actually doing has very questionable judgment...

 

I have not given up, either, and I expected about a .500 team for 2024.

 

Before the year started, I mentioned how we had so many "what if" players, and how that might not be as bad as it looked, because we did not need all of them to come true, at the same time.

 

Obviously, a few things not only did not go right, but they went into the toilet with season ending injuries to Gio and Story and a near season ending injury to Casas. Those were 3 of the 3 biggest what ifs to start the winter/spring hopes list.

 

Others have struggled out of the gate in one or more areas (O and/or D.)

 

As much as losing Gio, Pivetta, Whitlock and a few other pitchers, here and there, our staff has almost all been good to great "what ifs."

Our catchers have come through in mighty fashion.

Devers looks a little better on D and is over .900, but needs more timely hits.

Our OF has been spectacular, especially Abreu, Duran, O'Neill and Refsnyder.

 

Big misses at 1B, 2B and SS have hurt us, and one could imagine 2B and SS being better over the next 3/4ths of the season, but maybe some standout player(s) take a dip to counter that.

 

Overall, I'm liking what our future looks like, more now than last year or up to March/April. To me, that makes watching losses, this year, a little easier to handle. Plus, there are some exciting younger players to watch, this season.

[Bellhorn04]

i agree. why on earth would anyone trade him?

 

Some guys fall in love with the "Sell high" concept.

[Bellhorn04]

If I told you in February, the Sox would about half of their fist 44 games without Casas, Yoshida, Grissom, and Story, and lose Giolito for the year, and Pivetta and Bello to IL stints. And go a couple weeks with a starting infield that included Reyes and David Hamilton, what would you have expected for their record after 44 games? What odds would you give that team to make the post-season?

 

As good as I do right now. Because we're going to be seeing plenty more of the David Hamilton types.

[dgalehouse]

We will have to wait a while to fully assess the Sale for Grissom deal. But just on the face of it, trading a Chris Sale for a Vaughn Grissom, while still paying half of Sale's salary, seems like the work of a madman.

[Maxbialystock]

His injury situation is pure luck one way or the other. But lately he's been pitching like the Sale of old, total domination.

 

One giant caveat by me is that the Sox rotation this year has been fantastic without Sale. Plus the biggest need is infielders who can field and hit, which theoretically Grissom has the potential to do.

 

That said, the Sox are paying Sale's $17M salary this year, and so far he is headed for a WAR (for the season) of over 4. If he accomplishes that, it will be pretty close to his cumulative WAR, 2019-2023, for the Sox. I find that galling even though, as I said, the Sox rotation has been excellent.

[notin]

I think one of the best things Breslow did in the off season was to not trade Duran. The many trade suggestions on this forum were ill advised. Other than Devers (and possibly Casas) Duran is key to the success of this club. And he is still young and still improving.

 

He is key this year, but the OF is getting crowded and Duran's best position is LF. Even if they let O'Neill walk, they extended Rafaela so he is a guarantee. Abreu is also not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

The Sox do need a right-handed bat with some pop. If they can't put one in CF or RF or 1B or 3B or DH, where do they add it? SS? And move Mayer (who bats LH)? 2B? Not a lot of power hitting second basemen out there; sign Gleyber Torres? Is he even a power hitter anymore? Catcher?

 

The OF is getting crowded. And right now they have too many LHH in the lineup...