A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Not a starter. Too fragile.

 

I’m hoping the surprise performance of Criswell pushes Whitlock back into the bullpen…

[Bellhorn04]

I’m hoping the surprise performance of Criswell pushes Whitlock back into the bullpen…

 

If and when Whitlock is ever healthy again...

[Randy Red Sox]

Some people are only happy when it rains

 

some people will be happy when John Henry shows he cares again

[Randy Red Sox]

If and when Whitlock is ever healthy again...

 

we will see how long the Criswell bump lasts.

[notin]

we will see how long the Criswell bump lasts.

 

If you’ve already given up, does it matter?

[Bellhorn04]

There's every reason to give up on this season. I think things are only gonna get worse, frankly. This is the first time I've been a deadline sale advocate in a long time. 2020 doesn't count.

[Bellhorn04]

some people will be happy when John Henry shows he cares again

 

I'm afraid Henry wants to see his Tampa Bay North dream come to fruition before he dies.

[Nick]

There's every reason to give up on this season. I think things are only gonna get worse, frankly. This is the first time I've been a deadline sale advocate in a long time. 2020 doesn't count.

We are 1-6 vs AL East. That is my best measuring stick.

 

I just don't see things getting better when our starters have pitched above expectations and still has a losing record.

 

Only open question for me right now is viability of Grissom.

[notin]

I'm afraid Henry wants to see his Tampa Bay North dream come to fruition before he dies.

 

Tampa North would be fine, but it seems more like he wants to be Cincinnati East…

[FredLynn]

some people will be happy when John Henry shows he cares again

 

"We're going FULL THROTTLE".

In reverse.

This team by mid summer is going to be totally unwatchable. They aren't yet in last place but thats coming soon.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"We're going FULL THROTTLE".

In reverse.

This team by mid summer is going to be totally unwatchable. They aren't yet in last place but thats coming soon.

 

Posters who won't admit this scenario has always been at least in the back of their minds all winter may need to go under hypyesis.

[Maxbialystock]

If and when Whitlock is ever healthy again...

 

Whitlock's health and/or whether he starts or relieves is a very minor issue.

 

The problems with this team are primarily in the lineup which leads MLB in errors and unearned runs and can't drive in runs.

[Maxbialystock]

some people will be happy when John Henry shows he cares again

 

Perhaps. On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence out there that spending big bucks on players doesn't guarantee success. Mets are 20-24 with the biggest payroll of $308M. Astros are 20-25 with 3d biggest ($250M). Rangers are 23-23 with 5th biggest, $233M.

 

And, speaking of the Rays, their payroll is 27th, $100M, and they are 24-22. Cleveland's payroll is 26th, $100M, and they are 28-17. Milwaukee's is 22d, $107M, and they are 26-18.

 

So, if we dragged John Henry into a court of law and charged him with uncaring malfeasance, his defense counsel might point to the Sox 11th biggest payroll, $182M, which includes paying $17M (or some of it) to Chris Sale, who is pitching (and pitching well) for the Atlanta Braves, ditto Turner, $7M, who is elsewhere, ditto Giolito, $18M, who is out for the whole season, ditto Story, $22.5M, also out for the season. Also Kelsey Jansen, who's getting $16M and so far has pitched 15.2 innings, which translates (for a whole season) to something like $250K per inning. Jansen currently relies basically on one pitch, a cutter, and got hit hard his last time out.

[Randy Red Sox]

If you’ve already given up, does it matter?

 

forgive me for having reservations on the long term success of Criswell.. To me he is just another in the long list of BBB SP pick-ups this team has taken fliers on and almost all of them have failed. You can't even count Whitlock as a success at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Whitlock's health and/or whether he starts or relieves is a very minor issue.

 

The problems with this team are primarily in the lineup which leads MLB in errors and unearned runs and can't drive in runs.

 

No kidding. But I think it makes for better conversation when we're not just talking about one thing.

[moonslav59]

forgive me for having reservations on the long term success of Criswell.. To me he is just another in the long list of BBB SP pick-ups this team has taken fliers on and almost all of them have failed. You can't even count Whitlock as a success at this point.

 

Certainly, Criswell could easily have just been a flash in the pan for a few starts. I hope he isn't, but we all know he might be.

 

Whitlock gave us two very nice seasons- both with over 73 IP, mostly in relief.

 

2.73 ERA

3.07 FIP

1.06 WHIP

 

He started off this season, very well.

1.96 ERA in 4 starts (3.29 FIP/1.15 WHIP)

 

He had one bad season (2023) and has battled injuries since being made a starter.

 

I know you are not writing him off, and in many ways, a pitcher is only as good as he is right now, and right now, he's not pitching at all, but this guy has nasty stuff. He's a good pitcher, who just can't stay healthy. Sounds like a typical Sox pitcher, of late.

[moonslav59]

Our rotation is starting to look human, just as the bats seem to be waking up in the last 2 days.

 

The rotation still has a 2,76 ERA, despite allowing so many runs, recently. They are still being plagued by too many unearned runs, but that is what it is.

 

ERAs as SP/Opener Only:

0.00 Bernardino (2GS/3IP)

1.69 Wink (3GS/10.2 IP)

1.96 Whitlock (4 GS/18.1 IP)

3.48 Pivetta (4/20.2)

27.00 Anderson (1/1.2)

 

The more or less regulars:

2.17 Houck (9/58)

2.24 Crawford (9/52.1)

2.67 Criswell (6/27).

3.96 Bello (7/36.1)

 

[Maxbialystock]

No kidding. But I think it makes for better conversation when we're not just talking about one thing.

 

Fair enough. I've side with management on Whitlock for two reasons. First and foremost, they know way more about him and about the Sox needs they any of us do. Second, I think Whitlock has way too big a repertoire for a reliever. I think the best ones rely on no more than 3 pitches, but they must be 3 good pitches. Whitlock normally goes with 5 pitches--fastball, changeup, curve, slider, and cutter.

 

I cannot make an informed judgment about Whitlock's durability, which I realize is a big issue. So of course I fall back on the expertise of the Sox management.

[moonslav59]

When we acquired Smith and Cooper, did we really think they'd both be starting in nearly every game?

 

With Wong and Ref hitting so well, why not DH them, when they are not playing catcher or LF?

 

Ref is even reversing his splits, this year.

1.139 v R (.637 career)

.747 v L (.756 career)

He has DH'd twice, this year.

 

Wong has a significant career reverse split:

.775 v R

.599 v L

 

Wong in 2024

.904 v R

1.005 v L

 

Wong has DH'd twice, this year.

 

Cooper has started 4 games at DH. Smith has started 4 games at DH.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough. I've side with management on Whitlock for two reasons. First and foremost, they know way more about him and about the Sox needs they any of us do. Second, I think Whitlock has way too big a repertoire for a reliever. I think the best ones rely on no more than 3 pitches, but they must be 3 good pitches. Whitlock normally goes with 5 pitches--fastball, changeup, curve, slider, and cutter.

 

I cannot make an informed judgment about Whitlock's durability, which I realize is a big issue. So of course I fall back on the expertise of the Sox management.

 

Hindsight is making them look wrong, and not just with injuries. Look at performances in both roles:

 

The sample sizes by IP is pretty close (133 as RP/109 as SP)

 

2.65 ERA RP (.763 OPS Against)

4.29 ERA SP (.632 OPS Against)

 

To be fair, most pitchers have better numbers in relief, even some good starters.

 

Crawford career:

3.35 RP (.592)

4.39 SP (.716)

Nobody wants him in the pen, anymore.

 

Same with Houck:

2.68 RP (.570)

3.72 SP (.649)

 

Pivetta

4.19 RP (.707)

4.90 SP (.773)

 

[notin]

Fair enough. I've side with management on Whitlock for two reasons. First and foremost, they know way more about him and about the Sox needs they any of us do. Second, I think Whitlock has way too big a repertoire for a reliever. I think the best ones rely on no more than 3 pitches, but they must be 3 good pitches. Whitlock normally goes with 5 pitches--fastball, changeup, curve, slider, and cutter.

 

I cannot make an informed judgment about Whitlock's durability, which I realize is a big issue. So of course I fall back on the expertise of the Sox management.

 

While I certainly agree Sox management knows more about every situation than we do, does that mean they’re always right? If so, e we really are not left with much to complain about on this board.

 

Part of me thinks the decision to put Whitlock in the rotation is more guided by finances than many of us would like. Replacement relievers are cheaper than replacement starters

[notin]

When we acquired Smith and Cooper, did we really think they'd both be starting in nearly every game?

 

With Wong and Ref hitting so well, why not DH them, when they are not playing catcher or LF?

 

Ref is even reversing his splits, this year.

1.139 v R (.637 career)

.747 v L (.756 career)

He has DH'd twice, this year.

 

Wong has a significant career reverse split:

.775 v R

.599 v L

 

Wong in 2024

.904 v R

1.005 v L

 

Wong has DH'd twice, this year.

 

Cooper has started 4 games at DH. Smith has started 4 games at DH.

 

I think they use Wong at DH too much. But I’m one of those types that doesn’t like bring through the catchers unnecessarily. If Wong DHs and and McGuire gets hurt, then what? Or if you need to run for McGuire.

 

Let Cooper and Smith get themselves going…

[moonslav59]

I think they use Wong at DH too much. But I’m one of those types that doesn’t like bring through the catchers unnecessarily. If Wong DHs and and McGuire gets hurt, then what? Or if you need to run for McGuire.

 

Let Cooper and Smith get themselves going…

 

I don't think losing the DH by having to move Wong from DH to C, late in a game, is such a big deal. If the RP'er comes to bat, we can PH Cooper or Smith then, and let them "get going" that way.

 

Wong and Ref are hot: play them everyday.

[Maxbialystock]

While I certainly agree Sox management knows more about every situation than we do, does that mean they’re always right? If so, e we really are not left with much to complain about on this board.

 

Part of me thinks the decision to put Whitlock in the rotation is more guided by finances than many of us would like. Replacement relievers are cheaper than replacement starters

 

Plenty to gripe about because this is the third straight season in which the postseason seems out of reach. Everyone wants to blame JH for not spending enough, but I'm inclined to blame management for getting the wrong players. As I've already said, the Sox are not alone in failing to get the right players.

[notin]

Plenty to gripe about because this is the third straight season in which the postseason seems out of reach. Everyone wants to blame JH for not spending enough, but I'm inclined to blame management for getting the wrong players. As I've already said, the Sox are not alone in failing to get the right players.

 

There’s definitely some misspending, but ownership is at fault as well. They are most likely at fault for not extending Betts, something the Sox had been trying to do since at least 2017. And the payroll has gone from $240mil to under $180mill. A far cry from poverty, but that they’re moving in that direction certainly magnifies any and every misstepThe Sox have ALWAYS signed bad free agent/extension contracts. From Danny Darwin and Jack Clark to Frank Viola to Edgar Renteria to Hanley/Rusney/Pablo to David Price to Yoshida. But with higher payrolls, they could bury these mistakes. But since players are getting more expensive and the Sox are spending less, mistakes are harder to cover up…

[mvp 78]

Wait… they should have re-signed Betts? This is the first I’ve heard of this!!!!!!

[Larry Cook]

I don't think losing the DH by having to move Wong from DH to C, late in a game, is such a big deal. If the RP'er comes to bat, we can PH Cooper or Smith then, and let them "get going" that way.

 

Wong and Ref are hot: play them everyday.

 

Abreau is cold again

[moonslav59]

Abreau is cold again

 

He has a lot of company.

[Elktonnick]

This team is a train wreck right now. The aren't hitting; they aren't fielding ; and they don't throw very well either. Other than that .....

[moonslav59]

This team is a train wreck right now. The aren't hitting; they aren't fielding ; and they don't throw very well either. Other than that .....

 

Trainwreck is being kind.