A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

C: McGuire 75-80%/ Wong 20-25%

1B: Kavadas 80-85%/ Cooper 15-20%

DH: Wong 65-70%/ Refsnyder 30-35%

2B: Grissom 90%/Romy 10%

SS: Rafaela 70%/Romy 20%/DHam 10%

LF: O'Neill 60%/Refsnyder 40%

CF: Duran 90%/Rafaela 10%

RF: Abreu 50-55%/O'Neill 35%/Refsnyder 10-15%

 

[Duran Is The Man]

C: McGuire 75-80%/ Wong 20-25%

1B: Kavadas 80-85%/ Cooper 15-20%

DH: Wong 65-70%/ Refsnyder 30-35%

2B: Grissom 90%/Romy 10%

SS: Rafaela 70%/Romy 20%/DHam 10%

LF: O'Neill 60%/Refsnyder 40%

CF: Duran 90%/Rafaela 10%

RF: Abreu 50-55%/O'Neill 35%/Refsnyder 10-15%

 

 

you leave 3B/ Devers off your list on purpose?

[notin]

C: McGuire 75-80%/ Wong 20-25%

1B: Kavadas 80-85%/ Cooper 15-20%

DH: Wong 65-70%/ Refsnyder 30-35%

2B: Grissom 90%/Romy 10%

SS: Rafaela 70%/Romy 20%/DHam 10%

LF: O'Neill 60%/Refsnyder 40%

CF: Duran 90%/Rafaela 10%

RF: Abreu 50-55%/O'Neill 35%/Refsnyder 10-15%

 

 

 

Kavadas strikes me as a left-handed Dalbec with limited defense. Yes, Nico is pounding the ball in Worcester, but that’s also been done by every utility infielder the Sox have trotted out this year disguised as a major leaguer.

 

And from the “what do they have to lose” argument, it’s probably more likely Smith and Cooper recapture some of the talent that actually got them to MLB than Kavadas has of creating the kind of talent you need when you get promoted by default…

[Bellhorn04]

Kavadas strikes me as a left-handed Dalbec with limited defense. Yes, Nico is pounding the ball in Worcester, but that’s also been done by every utility infielder the Sox have trotted out this year disguised as a major leaguer.

 

And from the “what do they have to lose” argument, it’s probably more likely Smith and Cooper recapture some of the talent that actually got them to MLB than Kavadas has of creating the kind of talent you need when you get promoted by default…

 

Promoting Kavadas is what you do when you've officially given up on 2024.

[notin]

Promoting Kavadas is what you do when you've officially given up on 2024.

 

Yes.

 

At this point, if you hold on to Smith and Cooper and both start to hit, even if the season flops, that’s two more potential (albeit unlikely) trade pieces for the deadline…

[Old Red]

Yes.

 

At this point, if you hold on to Smith and Cooper and both start to hit, even if the season flops, that’s two more potential (albeit unlikely) trade pieces for the deadline…

 

NNNN trade pieces?🙈🤭

[notin]

NNNN trade pieces?

 

You clearly did not understand that sentence, did you?

 

If they turn it around, it’s not uncommon. Every year, there’s always a couple teams that trade for mediocre bench bats to fortify their roster or increase depth for the post-season…

[Old Red]

You clearly did not understand that sentence, did you?

 

If they turn it around, it’s not uncommon. Every year, there’s always a couple teams that trade for mediocre bench bats to fortify their roster or increase depth for the post-season…

 

The problem NNNN is that I do understand your post, which are usually unlikely, or NO chance.🤮

[Randy Red Sox]

Promoting Kavadas is what you do when you've officially given up on 2024.

 

Sox gave up on the 2024 season during the offseason

[notin]

The problem NNNN is that I do understand your post, which are usually unlikely, or NO chance.

 

Not really.

 

But it’s so cute how you justify everything you got wrong. “I wanted the Sox to bring back Bogaerts and they should have given the shortstop play” type stuff. First of all, they didn’t bring him back, and “should haves” are apparently something limited to your opinions. Second, the Sox shouldn’t have brought back Bogaerts given how much he costs and more important, for how long…

[moonslav59]

you leave 3B/ Devers off your list on purpose?

 

No. He should be 95%. Romy 5%.

[moonslav59]

Kavadas strikes me as a left-handed Dalbec with limited defense. Yes, Nico is pounding the ball in Worcester, but that’s also been done by every utility infielder the Sox have trotted out this year disguised as a major leaguer.

 

And from the “what do they have to lose” argument, it’s probably more likely Smith and Cooper recapture some of the talent that actually got them to MLB than Kavadas has of creating the kind of talent you need when you get promoted by default…

 

You might be right, but calling Kavadas up also makes sense. One factor might be that he is Rule 5, this winter, and we may want to "find out" more about him, before that day comes.

[moonslav59]

Promoting Kavadas is what you do when you've officially given up on 2024.

 

I don't see it that way, at all. Dalbec, Cooper and Smith have all sucked. They don't want Ref at 1B, so bringing up a guy raking it in AAA is not a desperation move or a "giving up" choice.

[Old Red]

Not really.

 

But it’s so cute how you justify everything you got wrong. “I wanted the Sox to bring back Bogaerts and they should have given the shortstop play” type stuff. First of all, they didn’t bring him back, and “should haves” are apparently something limited to your opinions. Second, the Sox shouldn’t have brought back Bogaerts given how much he costs and more important, for how long…

 

Wow NNNN you just added another N. NNNNN

[moonslav59]

Not really.

 

But it’s so cute how you justify everything you got wrong. “I wanted the Sox to bring back Bogaerts and they should have given the shortstop play” type stuff. First of all, they didn’t bring him back, and “should haves” are apparently something limited to your opinions. Second, the Sox shouldn’t have brought back Bogaerts given how much he costs and more important, for how long…

 

Give it up, notin. This guy has his own meanings to words and just skips over words like "albeit unlikely" to tell you your opinion is "unlikely."

[Bellhorn04]

I don't see it that way, at all. Dalbec, Cooper and Smith have all sucked. They don't want Ref at 1B, so bringing up a guy raking it in AAA is not a desperation move or a "giving up" choice.

 

What about the sample sizes for Cooper & Smith and their career numbers?

 

If they should be jettisoned based on less than 50 PA's, shouldn't Grissom be right there with them?

[Old Red]

Give it up, notin. This guy has his own meanings to words and just skips over words like "albeit unlikely" to tell you your opinion is "unlikely."

 

Pay NO attention to the man behind the curtain.🤭🙈🤮. Now it’s an opinion. You go back, and forth so many times between suggestions, opinions, and predictions, because you think it makes you look less wrong. It doesn’t. Mr Wrong they keep playing your song.

[Old Red]

What about the sample sizes for Cooper & Smith and their career numbers?

 

If they should be jettisoned based on less than 50 PA's, shouldn't Grissom be right there with them?

 

Come on Grissom was a hot prospect/suspect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You might be right, but calling Kavadas up also makes sense. One factor might be that he is Rule 5, this winter, and we may want to "find out" more about him, before that day comes.

 

There's also the outside chance Niko comes up in June/July and rakes MLB heat, lays off offspeed stuff, builds a snappy OPS... and becomes a more palatable trade target than Cooper or Smith.

 

Bloom would be paralyzed to include a 25-year old lefty slugger in a deadline deal (even a redundant one, like his endless supply of shortstop farmhands). But Breslow seems like a guy who knows he has to give up something to get something... at least, if we believe his "painful decisions" vow many months ago.

 

That is, if the Sox are confident they can lock up -- and want to lock up -- Casas, longterm.

[moonslav59]

But what about the sample sizes for Cooper & Smith vs. their career numbers?

 

What about them?

 

I look more at recent 2-3, maybe 4 year sample sizes as being a better predictor than something that happened 3-4 years ago and beyond.

 

Cooper:

.807 up to 2021 (115 OPS+)

.731 2022 to now (101 OPS!+)

He turns 34 in December. His OPS has decline for 4 straight seasons, without interruption. He does have better recent numbers than Smith and bats RH'd.

 

Smith has more hope, as he turns 29, soon, but his "recent numbers" are worse than Cooper's.

.811 up to 2020 (117 OPS+)

.658 from 2021 to now (83 OPS+)

 

One could easily argue that continuing with these two, in hopes of an unlikely turn-around is "giving up on 2024."

 

Kavadas has a very good eye. He's not just about hitting homers. I don't see him as having a worse outlook than the 2 we have, now.

 

(Plus, calling up Kavadas only means parting with one of these two- likely the LH'd hitter Smith.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

There's also the outside chance Niko comes up in June/July and rakes MLB heat, lays off offspeed stuff, builds a snappy OPS... and becomes a more palatable trade target than Cooper or Smith.

 

Bloom would be paralyzed to include a 25-year old lefty slugger in a deadline deal (even a redundant one, like his endless supply of shortstop farmhands). But Breslow seems like a guy who knows he has to give up something to get something... at least, if we believe his "painful decisions" vow many months ago.

 

That is, if the Sox are confident they can lock up -- and want to lock up -- Casas, longterm.

 

That could happen, too, or we could find out who our next DH will be- or could be (Kavadas,) because as the guy who is never wrong says, "Devers is not moving to 1B or DH."

 

We don't need Kavadas to master the breaking ball or K less than 28%.

 

We have a low bar set, already for him to beat:

 

.525 Cooper (11Ks in 42 PAs) .262 OBP

.464 Smith (13 Ks in 49 PAs) .224 OBP

.377 Dalbec (28Ks in 59 PAs) .207 OBP)

Total: 52 Ks in 150 PAs (not hard to beat)

 

I realize high OBP in the minors is often not transferred to the bigs, but sometimes it is, and there does not seem to be any tell that allows us to know who can and who can't, until you try. (Dalbec has a nice OBP in the minors, as we all know.)

 

Kavadas:

.419 OBP in the minors in nothing to ignore. (It was .415 at ND)

It's at .405 in AAA, so it hasn't declined much from his norm.

He's also batting .307, this year (13 singles, 9 2Bs and 9 HRs)

 

Give the guy a shot. I'm not going to say "What do we have to lose," because I don't have to say it. We are losing now, with Coop/Smith.

 

DFA Smith and platoon Kavadas and Coop at 1B, at least.

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

What about them?

 

I look more at recent 2-3, maybe 4 year sample sizes as being a better predictor than something that happened 3-4 years ago and beyond.

 

I was talking about their sample sizes with the Red Sox that you're using to determine they're toast. I thought you didn't like making decisions based on small samples. You said Grissom's sample of less than 50 PA's was still small. But it's the same size as Cooper's and Smith's.

[Old Red]

That could happen, too, or we could find out who our next DH will be- or could be (Kavadas,) because as the guy who is never wrong says, "Devers is not moving to 1B or DH."

 

We don't need Kavadas to master the breaking ball or K less than 28%.

 

We have a low bar set, already for him to beat:

 

.525 Cooper (11Ks in 42 PAs) .262 OBP

.464 Smith (13 Ks in 49 PAs) .224 OBP

.377 Dalbec (28Ks in 59 PAs) .207 OBP)

Total: 52 Ks in 150 PAs (not hard to beat)

 

I realize high OBP in the minors is often not transferred to the bigs, but sometimes it is, and there does not seem to be any tell that allows us to know who can and who can't, until you try. (Dalbec has a nice OBP in the minors, as we all know.)

 

Kavadas:

.419 OBP in the minors in nothing to ignore. (It was .415 at ND)

It's at .405 in AAA, so it hasn't declined much from his norm.

He's also batting .307, this year (13 singles, 9 2Bs and 9 HRs)

 

Give the guy a shot. I'm not going to say "What do we have to lose," because I don't have to say it. We are losing now, with Coop/Smith.

 

DFA Smith and platoon Kavadas and Coop at 1B, at least.

 

 

 

 

 

Moon you’ve spent to much time behind that curtain, and you are so confused, befuddled, and are still looking for your first idea. NO ONE said anything about always being right, but it’s about you that always get your suggestions, predictions (BTV trades) wrong. That’s why aMr. Wrong they keep playing your song. If you want to fantasize, and you do that Raffy will be moved to 1B/DH anytime soon, or as long as Casas, and Naoshida is still on the team then dream, and drool away.🙈🤭

[Old Red]

I was talking about their sample sizes with the Red Sox that you're using to determine they're toast. I thought you didn't like making decisions based on small samples. You said Grissom's sample of less than 50 PA's was still small. But it's the same size as Cooper's and Smith's.

Oh no moving that dang goal post again.

[moonslav59]

Many of us viewed 2024 as the season to "find out" more about a few players, to have a better idea of who will be in our longer term plans, and who will not. Of course, no 46 game sample size decides anything, and there will always be questions or doubts on any choice being made on 90% of MLB players, Nobody is 100% "durable." Nobody can be counted on to repeat what they did last year, the last 2-3 years or over their career as a whole: nobody.

 

That being said, I do feel more comfortable with these ideas:

 

The rotation was widely viewed as our clearcut weak area, not only in March, but for the last 4 years, as well.

Houck and Crawford look like keepers in the rotation. This could be a huge development, as over the winter, we thought only Gio and Bello looked to be somewhat dependable and decent. That leads me to Bello & Gio: Bello's outlook seems a little less bright, but he started slow, last year, too. Gio looks more questionable due to the injury, but maybe not a lot more than he did before the injury. Pivetta will be a FA and might bolt, so I won't talk about his future with us, other than to say, I'd like to extend him to a reasonable deal- maybe $40M/3? I would not count on Criswell as a long term solution for the 5 slot. I hope we decide to use Whitlock in the pen for 2025 and beyond, especially since Jansen and Martin will be FAs, this fall.

2025: Gio, Houck, Crawford, Bello, _____. (I'd still love to see us add an ace, and make these 4 the 2-5 slot starters.).

 

The pen was thought to be decent to good, in March. They have done about what was expected, but a positive development has happened, as the two FAs-to-be have been two of the RP'ers who have feel short of expectations. Many otehrs have improved their future outlook.

Bernardino looks like no fluke.

Slaten struggled. last night, but looks like a keeper.

Weissert looks like a keeper.

Kelly looks a little more promising, but his sample size is too small to say he is a keeper.

Wink and Campbell have seen their stock slip over the first 46 games, and with Wink, he was so good, last year, that the drop seems large. I don't think Booser, Uwasawa and others have done anything to determi\ne they are keepers.

 

Our catching tandem took a big step forward to start 2024. At worst, we should have a keeper to go with the big promise Teel brings to our catching future. Some other catchers in our farm system seem to be making strides, as well.

 

Casas looks more fragole, but he is still a keeper.

 

Grissom has done nothing to show he is our "keeper" at 2B, but I have not given up hope of his horrific small sample size.

 

Romy looks like as good a utility infielder as anyone else, we've had. The return of Story is not to be counted on, and Rafaela's defense at SS seems good, despite too many errors. Mayer looks to be back on track with the promise he brings to SS.

 

Devers at 3B is what it is, and he is a keeper.

 

Our OF has made great strides. Duran is showing 2023 was not a fluke. Abreu has been hot and cold, but looks okay to good on D, and his bat looks good enough to stick. O'Neill is a FA, this winter. Rafaela looks about as questionable as he was in March. His O looks more questionable, but his D looks more believable. I was sold on Ref in March: maybe more are sold on him, now- not as a lock FT'er but a very useful 4th OF'er and DH v LHPs. Anthony offers about the same promise we had in March.

 

I'm not worried about DH, even if we write off Yoshida and his deal, I like Ref vs LHPs and we have so many options to fill in the vs RH'd slot.

 

A lot might depend on what Anthony, Mayer and or Teel can bring to the big club in 2025 and beyond, but we look okay, even if 2 out of 3 don't help in '25 or'26.

 

I feel better about 2025 and beyond than I did in March, but that does not offer too much solace to watching this year's team on the field.

 

[moonslav59]

I was talking about their sample sizes with the Red Sox that you're using to determine they're toast. I thought you didn't like making decisions based on small samples. You said Grissom's sample of less than 50 PA's was still small. But it's the same size as Cooper's and Smith's.

 

1. I listed Coop's and Smith's recent 3-4 year sample sizes, which are much larger than Grissom's, and Smith's is worse than Grissom's last 3 year numbers.

 

2. We have no real alternative to Grissom at 2B, like we do with Kavadas at 1B/DH. I guess we could use Romy/DHam, but we might need Romy more at SS, if Rafaela keeps not hitting.

 

3. Grissom is coming back from an injury, and this could be viewed as ST'ing, for him. Give him a few more weeks, and I might be calling for a Valdez call up or aa Romy to FT role move.

 

4. You mentioned the decent career numbers by Coop & Smith, but both were heavily padded by good seasons pre-2021 or pre-2020, and not something they seem to be trending back towards. Smith has not been over .692 since 2020. He's at .652 in his last 787 PAs. Is that a large enough sample size? Cooper has been over .700, recently, so he does not have a horrible recent history, but at his age and looking at 4 straight years of 100% steady decline, I don't see why I should have more hope for him that Grissom, at his age. Cooper's OPS+ decline:

129 ('21)>112 ('22)>94 ('23)>83 ('24 in 83 PAs not 50.) Sure, Coop still has some hope he could regain the form of 2022. That was not too long ago, even for a 33 year old, but the longer 4 year trend is worrisome.

 

5. 1B is a position where offense is essential. 2B, not so much.

[moonslav59]

It's nice to see the Sox have 4 batters over.900, but one is 6th in team PAs (Wong) and the other just passed Reyes for 11th in PAs (Refsnyder)

 

Updated OPS leaders

.954 Refsnyder 11th in PAs

.939 Devers 3rd despite missing time

.932 O'Neill 4th despite missing time

.916 Wong 6th due to being a catcher

.857 Casas 8th and on IL (says he will be ready by June 21st)

.822 Abreu 5th (did not play much, early)

.791 Romy 19th (may end up near 13th by season's end)

.784 Duran 1st (making an impression)

.736 Yoshida 9th (on IL)

.663 McGuire 10th (catcher)

.620 Cooper 17th (should pass Dalbec & Reyes in PAs, soon)

.617 Story (says he may be back, this year)

.569 Rafaela 2nd (so many PAs for such a weak batter)

.476 Smith 16th (not sure how much he plays going forward)

.453 Vadlez 7th (may not get another look, this year)

.305 Grissom 16th (should end up in top 12-24 in PAs, unless he never heats up)

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA leaders (10+ IP/ under 18 noted)

0.89 Bernardino

1.54 Kelly 11.2

1.96 Whitlock (shut down rehab)

2.17 Crawford

2.17 Houck

2.41 Weissert

2.76 Criswell

3.04 Pivetta

 

3.33 Wink (AAA, now)

3.38 Booser 16 IP

3.38 Slaten

3.44 Martin (really turning it around after a horrible start)

3.45 Jansen

3.96 Bello

 

4.98 Anderson

 

6.55 Joely (AAA, now)

 

Last 15 days:

0.00 Kelly & Martin

1.29 Bernardino

2.70 Booser

2.84 Houck (1.59 last 7 days)

3.57 Crawford

 

 

4.15 Criswell

4.60 Pivetta (bad first start back from IL) 2.31 last 2 starts

5.40 Anderson

6.00 Jansen

6.52 Bello (needs to find the groove)

7.36 Weissert

12.60 Slaten (got rocked, last game)

 

 

[notin]

What about the sample sizes for Cooper & Smith and their career numbers?

 

If they should be jettisoned based on less than 50 PA's, shouldn't Grissom be right there with them?

 

Smith’s career numbers show a huge dip since 2020, and a look at his last unimpressive 3 are probably more relevant.

 

But Kavadas is like the 57th best prospect in the Sox system for a reason. He’s basically a left-handed, lesser version of Dalbec with worse defense.

 

Hard pass. Very hard. I’ll take my chances with Cooper…

Edited May 19, 2024 by notin

[dgalehouse]

I would actually rather stick with Dalbec ,and see if he can figure it out, than go with these career ham and eggers.