A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Yeah, the whole thing about the #3 hitter is perfectly logical yet counter-intuitive at the same time.

 

Not really.

 

If you play 150 games and get 600 PA, one quarter of your plate appearances are in the first inning. And if you are hitting behind two hitters with a .380 OBP and a .350 OBP, you would come up in 40% of those PA with 2 outs and no one on base, which gives you 60 PA on the spot with two outs and no one on base.

 

That's just using straight OBP, and what it doesn't account for is for most hitters, OBP goes up with multiple plate appearances against a pitcher. This is obviously in everyone's first plate appearance of the game.

 

In fact, the old school logic for using a high BA hitter in the #3 hole was that he was supposed to reach base in front of the cleanup hitter if the first two hitters didn't.

 

This is also sort of along the lines of the opener strategy. That idea was to use a better/best RP against the better hitters in a lineup rather than saving him for later innings when who knows who is coming up. Put those better hitters against a good releiver, and then against a starter/bulk inning reliever when they have another "first PA against"...

Edited April 16, 2024 by notin

[notin]

Yeah, the whole thing about the #3 hitter is perfectly logical yet counter-intuitive at the same time.

 

In fact, this article agrees with me.

 

Number 2 spot in lineup now the best in baseball

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If Babe Ruth were starring for the Yankees today, he might not be wearing his legendary No. 3, famously issued to him when the team first put uniform numbers on their backs in 1929 simply because that’s where he had primarily batted in the lineup: third. Instead, imagine a world

 

 

Note this quote "The new thinking goes that No. 3 is a place for a good-not-great hitter, because it’s the most likely position to come up with two outs and no runners on base."

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

If you play 150 games and get 600 PA, one quarter of your plate appearances are in the first inning. And if you are hitting behind two hitters with a .380 OBP and a .350 OBP, you would come up in 40% of those PA with 2 outs and no one on base, which gives you 60 PA on the spot with two outs and no one on base.

 

That's just using straight OBP, and what it doesn't account for is for most hitters, OBP goes up with multiple plate appearances against a pitcher. This is obviously in everyone's first plate appearance of the game.

 

In fact, the old school logic for using a high BA hitter in the #3 hole was that he was supposed to reach base in front of the cleanup hitter if the first two hitters didn't.

 

This is also sort of along the lines of the opener strategy. That idea was to use a better/best RP against the better hitters in a lineup rather than saving him for later innings when who knows who is coming up. Put those better hitters against a good releiver, and then against a starter/bulk inning reliever when they have another "first PA against"...

 

Like I said I get the logic. The stats bear it out. It's counter-intuitive because it seems to make sense to have one of your best hitters up after the 1 and 2 hitters, who are usually high OBP guys.

 

It would be interesting to see it broken down by inning as well.

[moonslav59]

In fact, this article agrees with me.

 

Number 2 spot in lineup now the best in baseball

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If Babe Ruth were starring for the Yankees today, he might not be wearing his legendary No. 3, famously issued to him when the team first put uniform numbers on their backs in 1929 simply because that’s where he had primarily batted in the lineup: third. Instead, imagine a world

 

 

Note this quote "The new thinking goes that No. 3 is a place for a good-not-great hitter, because it’s the most likely position to come up with two outs and no runners on base."

 

Trust science.

[jad]

Too bad we don't have a lead-off hitter like that, oh, Betts guy.

[notin]

Like I said I get the logic. The stats bear it out. It's counter-intuitive because it seems to make sense to have one of your best hitters up after the 1 and 2 hitters, who are usually high OBP guys.

 

It would be interesting to see it broken down by inning as well.

 

Even the highest OBP guys don't get on base 50% of the time. Unless you have Barry Bonds...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Correct me if I'm wrong -- because the #3 batter gets up in every first inning, he's guaranteed to bat the most with nobody on base (since if even the best OBP guys bat #1-2, they still make outs 60% of the time or more).

 

Personally, in my line-up, I still want my best hitters up in the first inning. In addition to getting them the most ABs, the opportunity to take an early lead and pressure opponents to play catch-up is an edge... at least in all the levels I've played and coached my whole life.

[mvp 78]

In fact, this article agrees with me.

 

Number 2 spot in lineup now the best in baseball

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If Babe Ruth were starring for the Yankees today, he might not be wearing his legendary No. 3, famously issued to him when the team first put uniform numbers on their backs in 1929 simply because that’s where he had primarily batted in the lineup: third. Instead, imagine a world

 

 

Note this quote "The new thinking goes that No. 3 is a place for a good-not-great hitter, because it’s the most likely position to come up with two outs and no runners on base."

 

I’d still want my batters to have the best chance to hit during a game which means hitting earlier in the order.

[Randy Red Sox]

After tonight the Sox are likely to be 9-9 right in the mushy middle. John Henry has his payroll down and figures RSN will be satisfied with another season around .500. The fact that Hamilton is now the everyday shortstop is a disgrace. Pound sand Henry you cheapskate !!

[Randy Red Sox]

nice tidy 0/6 for Yoshida tonight

[notin]

After tonight the Sox are likely to be 9-9 right in the mushy middle. John Henry has his payroll down and figures RSN will be satisfied with another season around .500. The fact that Hamilton is now the everyday shortstop is a disgrace. Pound sand Henry you cheapskate !!

 

I’d rather watch Hamilton play full time than Dalbec play part time.

[notin]

I’d still want my batters to have the best chance to hit during a game which means hitting earlier in the order.

 

That’s why the guy Don Zimmer would have batted third should now bat second…

[dgalehouse]

nice tidy 0/6 for Yoshida tonight

 

Maybe they should let his interpreter hit.

[Hugh2]

Cam Booser or Zach Kelly could improve this bullpen right now. The former would require you to DFA a guy, unless an il stunt is imminent.

 

Would anyone cry if Joely was DFA’d? Kenley is worth seeing if he can get it right but with the former I’m ready to move on.

[Hitch]

You could put the greatest pitching line up in the history of the sport out there, we'd still lose regularly with this defence.

 

What are the defensive metrics like for Anthony and Mayer? Please tell me the future is at least brighter?

[Hugh2]

Partial scouting reports:

 

Marcelo Mayer -

 

Field: Instinctual defender with very fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Potential plus defender at short.

 

Arm: Plus arm, plenty for shortstop. Able to make all the throws with plenty of zip.

 

Summation: Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Has all the tools you look for in a future everyday shortstop and the offensive upside to hit at the top of a contending team's lineup. Game comes easy to him. Potential for four above-average-or-better tools. Should be able to stick at shortstop and hit for a high average with power. Was regarded by some as one of the best, if not the best, defenders in the 2021 draft. Complete profile on both sides of the ball gives him an all-star ceiling, but development has been somewhat slowed by long-term injuries in both 2022 and 2023.

[Old Red]

7 innings by the BP last night, and 126 pitches thrown. Wink has thrown 3 out of the last 4 games, and thrown 79 pitches. Keep pilling them up, because only good things will happen.

[Hugh2]

Roman Anthony -

 

Defense: Red Sox believe he can stick in center field long-term, but others believe he ends up in a corner. Strong defensive instincts. Has played a strong center field so far, showing good reads off the bat and nice paths to the ball. Makes plays that a lot of center fielders cannot make. Ability to stay in center will depend on whether he can retain his athleticism as he matures. Potential above-average defensive profile.

 

Arm: Above-average arm strength.

 

Summation: Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Key to reaching his potential will be showing he can consistently make contact against advanced pitching, especially left-handers, and continuing to show he can stick in center field. How his hit tool develops will determine how much of his power potential actualizes. His power is a carrying tool and is very impressive for his age. Showed he was much more advanced at the plate than anticipated in 2023. Exciting prospect with one of the highest ceilings in the system.

[moonslav59]

Cam Booser or Zach Kelly could improve this bullpen right now. The former would require you to DFA a guy, unless an il stunt is imminent.

 

Would anyone cry if Joely was DFA’d? Kenley is worth seeing if he can get it right but with the former I’m ready to move on.

 

Not only will I not cry, I'll rejoice!

 

Bring up Kelly.

[moonslav59]

I’d rather watch Hamilton play full time than Dalbec play part time.

 

Sad. But true.

[Hugh2]

Should we just start the realistic 2025 thread now?

 

O'Neil

Giolito

Pivetta

Cambell

Story

Grissom

Refsnyder

Gonzalez

 

And now possibly Whitlock/Devers.

 

I know with pitching injuries are up across the game, but it seems like the Sox have an allergy to staying healthy.

[moonslav59]

Should we just start the realistic 2025 thread now?

 

O'Neil

Giolito

Pivetta

Cambell

Story

Grissom

Refsnyder

Gonzalez

 

And now possibly Whitlock/Devers.

 

I know with pitching injuries are up across the game, but it seems like the Sox have an allergy to staying healthy.

 

That is a list that rivals the usual Yankee injury list in number.

 

This team needed everything to go right to have a shot, and number one was health. Losing Gio & Story for the full season probably ended all hope, but the others should return. I suppose, if they do come back strong, and we have no more major injuries (yea right) we might still hang around that last playoff slot for longer than many expect.

 

Not acquiring a capable back-up SS has been an issue for waay too long.

Our pen would have been okay had we been able to keep one or two from Whitlock, Houck & Pivetta there, but sadly, our management team decided Gio was enough, and then failed to try and replace him once we found out he was toast for 2024.

 

Asking for us to pick up a SS from another team, right now, is highly unlikely, no matter what we think.

 

Calling up Kelly might work. (DFA or IL Joely.)

 

DFA'ing Dalbec or Joely could allow us to add Booser or Guerrero to the 40, and call one up. (We could also place Mata on the 60 and keep everyone, which means there is no excuse.)

 

[Duran Is The Man]

That is a list that rivals the usual Yankee injury list in number.

 

This team needed everything to go right to have a shot, and number one was health. Losing Gio & Story for the full season probably ended all hope, but the others should return. I suppose, if they do come back strong, and we have no more major injuries (yea right) we might still hang around that last playoff slot for longer than many expect.

 

Not acquiring a capable back-up SS has been an issue for waay too long.

Our pen would have been okay had we been able to keep one or two from Whitlock, Houck & Pivetta there, but sadly, our management team decided Gio was enough, and then failed to try and replace him once we found out he was toast for 2024.

 

Asking for us to pick up a SS from another team, right now, is highly unlikely, no matter what we think.

 

Calling up Kelly might work. (DFA or IL Joely.)

 

DFA'ing Dalbec or Joely could allow us to add Booser or Guerrero to the 40, and call one up. (We could also place Mata on the 60 and keep everyone, which means there is no excuse.)

 

 

Trevor Bauer is still out there.

[jad]

Trevor Bauer is still out there.

 

For good reason.

[notin]

Trevor Bauer is still out there.

 

Also Julio Urias.

 

Or if you prefer your pitchers to be less volatile and maybe a little more Mesozoic, Rich Hill and Johnny Cueto are available.

 

And for all you Kenley Jansen supporters, we could pair him up with perennial free agent Juan Marichal…

[moonslav59]

We are exactly 1/9th through the 2024 season.

 

Our rotation has been the driving force in allowing us to not be under .500.

 

Our pen has been mostly fine, but has had quite a few hiccups.

 

The defense has not done the staff many favors, and it has forced the need to get 4-5 outs, too many innings. This is one reason the IP numbers don't tell the whole story for our pitchers.

 

The offense has been very inconsistent and has not been an overall plus- something we needed it to be.

 

Injuries are part of the game, and they have been a large part of our start to 2024, but the neglect shown towards providing capable back-up to key positions, like SS are like a stab in the backs of fans.

 

We've had a few things to enjoy, so far, but few and far between. Here are a few bright spots:

 

1. The rotation, of course. (Top 2-3 in most major categories, despite poor defense behind them)

2. Slaten 10+ IP and looking very good.

3. Bernardino (was not on the opening day roster)

4. O'Neill (238 OPS+, but now injured)

5. Casas (149 OPS+) but his D has not improved

6. Our Catchers look a little better on D, way better on CERA and 158 OPS+ from Wong and 121 OPS+ from McGuire.

7. Duran (112 OPS+) and 6 SBs w okay D

 

Some numbers that are killing us:

1. Our defense is ranked bottom 5 in just about every measure.

2. -84 OPS+ Dalbec (20 PAs), 23 by Reyes (33), 38 Rafaela (61), 40 Valdez (51), 58 Abreu (37) & 64 by Yoshida (71)

3. Campbell (6.72 FIP) & Joely (5.02) Add Weissert at 5.44.

4. Bello has yet to get on track (4.80 FIP)

5. Jansen with a 24% BB rate and 1.800 WHIP

7. Wink and his 2.06 WHIP

 

[moonslav59]

Trevor Bauer is still out there.

 

Yup.

 

I was okay with the idea for a while.

[Hitch]

Thanks for those Hugh.

 

That helps ease the growing fear of never seeing a competent Red Sox defence ever again.

[mvp 78]

Trevor Bauer is still out there.

 

He doesn't play SS.

[Old Red]

Also Julio Urias.

 

Or if you prefer your pitchers to be less volatile and maybe a little more Mesozoic, Rich Hill and Johnny Cueto are available.

 

And for all you Kenley Jansen supporters, we could pair him up with perennial free agent Juan Marichal…

 

I was all in for signing Jansen TWO years ago, but Bloom didn’t do it. When he signed him last year I said it was a good move, but maybe a year to late.