A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

I don’t know whose idea it was to put Blake Swihart in LF, but if you told me that team also employs a guy who would play Christian Vazquez at 2b, Christian Arroyo in RF, Hunter Renfroe in CF, Justin Turner at 2b, never remove Kike from SS, etc. I might keep him in mind as a suspect.

 

I don’t hold Franchy at 1b against Cora. But the others? Plus all the ones that don’t leap to mind? I can see questioning his commitment to defense…

 

I remember some of the Swihart thing now. My recollection is that they still had some hope in the guy's game, but he had no shot at catching anymore with Vazquez and Leon manning the position. So they were trying him as a utility guy. I vaguely remember Dombrowski talking about it, but I don't have the energy to dig up stories on it. Plus they won 108 games in 2018 so I don't think it was much of an issue.

[Bellhorn04]

Raf Man is a work in progress, and maybe needed more at bats in Worcester. It took Casas a while to get going last year, so time will tell on the RAF Man. I would keep him in CF if that’s the primary position he is destined to play. Yes he made some good plays out there like the good running catch at the end of the game out West, and a good diving catch, and a catch that he jumped up thinking he was up against the wall, but wasn’t.i heard his name in the same breath as JBJ on here, but I don’t think he’s as good right now. I’ve seen Reggie Smith make some great catches, and throws, and Lynne some great catches too. I know some want him to be that good, but pump those brakes on his greatness right now. He’s good in CF, but not great yet, and his bat especially has a long way to go, so keep him in CF. The fact that the Red Sox don’t have a good experienced backup IF who can make the routine plays around the bag was a bad plan to start with. Counting on Story Land to play 140 was not a good plan, and planning on him to take JT’s spot in the middle of the order was not a sound plan either. Blame it on whomever you want, and there is probably plenty of blame to go around.

 

The simplest thing is just to blame the front office for royally screwing the pooch since 2019. Failure to keep Betts, hiring Bloom, cutting payroll...they created a fustercluck. Bloom's signings of Story and Yoshida have turned out ugly and that's a big part of it. Who knows when we'll ever get out of this?

 

Breslow is off to a snakebit start with Giolito gone for the year, Story gone, Grissom out to start the year, Campbell getting lit up and going on IL.

 

The beat goes on.

[Randy Red Sox]

The simplest thing is just to blame the front office for royally screwing the pooch since 2019. Failure to keep Betts, hiring Bloom, cutting payroll...they created a fustercluck. Bloom's signings of Story and Yoshida have turned out ugly and that's a big part of it. Who knows when we'll ever get out of this?

 

Breslow is off to a snakebit start with Giolito gone for the year, Story gone, Grissom out to start the year, Campbell getting lit up and going on IL.

 

The beat goes on.

 

in life you get what you pay for--same in sports

[moonslav59]

https://nesn.com/2024/04/could-red-sox-move-ceddanne-rafaela-to-shortstop-craig-breslow-weighs-in/

 

"Internal options:" how surprising.

[Maxbialystock]

in life you get what you pay for--same in sports

 

Ahem. The Sox are paying $180M this year, 11th biggest payroll in MLB.

 

But they absolutely, positively are not getting what they pay for.

 

Specifically, the following Sox salaries are not currently playing for the Boston Red Sox: Devers $29M (and we have no idea when his shoulder will be well enough to enable him to hit); Story $23M; Giolito $18M; Pivetta $7M; Sale $17M; Turner $7M. That's over $100M of the $180M.

 

Now tack on Yoshida's $18M because his OPS is .573, which makes him virtually worthless as a DH, which is the only position he can "play."

 

Now we're at $60M of usable players--basically, the Oakland A's payroll--vs. an actual payroll of $180M.

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

I don’t know whose idea it was to put Blake Swihart in LF, but if you told me that team also employs a guy who would play Christian Vazquez at 2b, Christian Arroyo in RF, Hunter Renfroe in CF, Justin Turner at 2b, never remove Kike from SS, etc. I might keep him in mind as a suspect.

 

I don’t hold Franchy at 1b against Cora. But the others? Plus all the ones that don’t leap to mind? I can see questioning his commitment to defense…

 

HRam in LF worked out well, too.

[Bellhorn04]

HRam in LF worked out well, too.

 

And that was a Benny Brainstorm as I recall.

[moonslav59]

Ahem. The Sox are paying $180M this year, 11th biggest payroll in MLB.

 

But they absolutely, positively are not getting what they pay for.

 

Specifically, the following Sox salaries are not currently playing for the Boston Red Sox: Devers $29M (and we have no idea when his shoulder will be well enough to enable him to hit); Story $23M; Giolito $18M; Pivetta $7M; Sale $17M; Turner $7M. That's over $100M of the $180M.

 

Now tack on Yoshida's $18M because his OPS is .573, which makes him virtually worthless as a DH, which is the only position he can "play."

 

Now we're at $60M of usable players--basically, the Oakland A's payroll--vs. an actual payroll of $180M.

 

So, basically, we do much better with our lower cost players. Maybe, this is why JH is thinking that spending more is not the solution.

 

Watching things here in Houston, they just paid Hader big bucks to save the team. Oooops!

 

Max has struck a chord that rings true. Our big money contracts have largely been disasters, since maybe the nice JD signing. Many of the ones that worked out okay, still saw some sort of qualifier, like an injury or decline in some area of performance.

 

One could go back as far as HRam, Pablo and Price, but I'm going to start with post JD...

 

This may not be a complete list, but here is a stab at it:

 

Players making more than $6M per year (not counting arbs)

 

$68M/4 Eovaldi '19(worked out okay to well, but he missed time and had an off year)

$145M/5 Sale '20 (complete disaster)

$120M/6 Bogey '20 (opt out after 3, saw his offense decline)

$6.5M/1 Perez '20

$14M/2 Kike '21 (did fine in '21 but not in '22)

$10M/1 Richards (disaster)

$9M/1 Ottavino '21 (trade, did meh to okay)

$10M/1 Kike '22 (awful at SS and at bat)

$140M/6 Story '22 (awful, so far & too late to fully redeem)

$19M/2 Barnes '22 (had a great half season, then a cliff)

$11M/1 + opt '23 JBJ (disaster & put us over tax line)

$7M/1 Wacha (did well, but missed some time)

$7M/1 Paxton '22 (missed '22 & took '23 option)

$90M/5 Yoshida '23 (+ fee, not off to a good start, TBD)

$32M/2 Jansen '23 (okay to good, so far, TBD)

$22M/2 Turner '23 (opt out hurt, but he did well)

18M/2 Martin '23 (great in '23, TBD)

$10M/1 Kluber '23 (disaster)

$7M/1 Duvall '23 (good but missed time)

$313M/10 Devers '24 (started, this year. TBD)

$55M/6 Bello '24 (TBD)

$50M/8 Rafaela '24 (TBD)

$39M/2 Giolito '24 (cannot make this a plus)

 

There are many TBDs, here, and one can argue the Bogey and Wacha deals were good ones, so maybe with the Turner deal, only 3-4 worked out well for the team.

 

 

($4Mper to $5.9M per: Whitlock, O'Neill, Hendriks, Hill, Diekman, Bleier/Barnes swap, Perez II)

 

The $1 to $7M deals seemed to work out better.

 

 

 

[notin]

David Hamilton's SoxProspects page seems to as much as say he's not suited to be an MLB shortstop, but we're in a position of running him out there anyway, because there are no great alternatives. Other than, apparently, our rookie outfielder who is struggling to make contact at the plate and also has an unusually high number of 3 errors in the outfield so far.

 

And Romy Gonzalez' Soxprospects.come page is much more favorable of his ability to play SS. I get playing Hamilton while Gonzalez is injured; at some point depth does run out. But according to that NESN article, Cora (mentioned by name, no less) plans a platoon with Hamilton and Gonzalez. That leaves Hamilton as the strong side of the platoon. Of course, it is just a NESN article, and Cora has not actually done it yet. But if he does, will you defend that?

[notin]

HRam in LF worked out well, too.

 

Cora had nothing to do with that. That one is owned by Cherington and/or Farrell...

[notin]

"Internal options:" how surprising.

 

Everyone does internal options first. Much easier to undo if they don't work out.

 

Minnesota is having the same problems in their infield, and are handling it the same way - internal options first...

[notin]

I remember some of the Swihart thing now. My recollection is that they still had some hope in the guy's game, but he had no shot at catching anymore with Vazquez and Leon manning the position. So they were trying him as a utility guy. I vaguely remember Dombrowski talking about it, but I don't have the energy to dig up stories on it. Plus they won 108 games in 2018 so I don't think it was much of an issue.

 

I was only talking about hot there seems to be a common thread among moving players to positions they are not familiar with. Fans usually blame the FO, probably because they remember that scene between Brad Pitt and Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball where they argued about Scott Hatteberg and Hoffman's contract, and think it is commonplace for the GM to force the lineup.

 

Of course the reality is that never happened. Howe (Hoffman's character) was reluctant, but professional and played along (and did not bitch about his contract since 1. he still had a year left and 2. he had an agent who did that for him for a living).

 

 

But sometimes, playing the guy somewhere new might be the manager's doing. In fact, I bet it is more often than not...

[illinoisredsox]

Cora had nothing to do with that. That one is owned by Cherington and/or Farrell...

 

As was Swihart’s initial try in LF (2016 I think). He racked up his ankle running into the wall down the line in left n one of the first games he played out there and was never the same.

[illinoisredsox]

We can blame Cora for the defense but Merloni said it best about AAA depth; the most important thing they need to be able to do is catch the ball. You aren’t asking depth guys to carry you offensively.

 

It goes deeper than Cora; guys are not learning in the minors.

[dgalehouse]

I think we sometimes overrate the importance of the manager. I think Cora is a decent manager . When he has a great team that stays pretty healthy ( 2018 ) , he is very successful. When he loses key players from the roster and injuries happen, he is not so successful. And when the team is full of holes, he is in trouble. Most managers are in that same situation.

[notin]

I think we sometimes overrate the importance of the manager. I think Cora is a decent manager . When he has a great team that stays pretty healthy ( 2018 ) , he is very successful. When he loses key players from the roster and injuries happen, he is not so successful. And when the team is full of holes, he is in trouble. Most managers are in that same situation.

 

Cora’s strength isn’t his command of the typical managerial approach we’re all used to. Houston hired for his deep understanding of the analytical part of the game. And then learned they vastly underestimated how good he was at that…

[moonslav59]

Cora had nothing to do with that. That one is owned by Cherington and/or Farrell...

 

True, but the idea has existed pre-Cora.

[moonslav59]

Everyone does internal options first. Much easier to undo if they don't work out.

 

Minnesota is having the same problems in their infield, and are handling it the same way - internal options first...

 

I get why, but with some SSs available, now, and last year, too, for cheap, I'm not sure why we have to give DHam/Romy a shot, first.

[moonslav59]

We can blame Cora for the defense but Merloni said it best about AAA depth; the most important thing they need to be able to do is catch the ball. You aren’t asking depth guys to carry you offensively.

 

It goes deeper than Cora; guys are not learning in the minors.

 

We never seem to have a bench of defensive specialist, but the odd thing is, they are rarely good at hitting, too.

 

We often have platoon guys like Refsnyder. When we had guys like Holt, we were better off.

[moonslav59]

Three times through the rotation, and so far just one missed start (Criswell for Pivetta,) so far.

 

Here are the starter lines:

 

ER/ IP

 

2/5 Bello

1/6 Pivetta

0/6 Crawford

1/5 Whitlock

0/6 Houck

 

4/5 Bello

0/5 Pivetta

1/4.2 Crawford

0/4.1 Whitlock

0/6 Houck

 

1/5.1 Bello

0/5 Crawford

1/5 Whitlock

4/5.2 Houck

2/4 Criswell

 

Really, only 2 bad starts out of 15.

 

Two very nice stretches:

5 starts: 4 ER in 28 IP

7 starts: 3 ER in 35.1 IP

 

All I can say is, "WOW!"

 

[moonslav59]

We saw a few players bring up their OPS, today, but some still have a ways to go.

 

20+ PAs

1.124 O'Neill

.851 McGuire

.782 Wong

.779 Casas

.775 Duran

.721 Devers

.617 Story

.616 Abreu

.604 Yoshida

.547 Rafaela

.413 Valdez

.399 Reyes

 

Under 20 PAs

.728 DHam (19 PAs)

.650 Romy (5 PAs)

.000 Dalbec (16 PAs!)

 

ERA

Starters

0.57 Crawford (15.2 IP)

0.82 Pivetta (11 IP)

1.26 Whitlock (14.1 IP)

2.04 Houck (17.2)

4.11 Bello (15.1)

4.50 Criswell (4 IP)

 

Relief

0.00 Slaten (7.2 IP)

0.00 Jansen (4.2)

0.00 Bernardino (3.1)

1.23 Weissert (7.1)

2.25 Anderson (8.0)

2.79 Winkowski (9.2)

3.38 Joely (5.1)

6.00 Martin (6.0)

12.79 Campbell (6.1)

 

[Maxbialystock]

I think we sometimes overrate the importance of the manager. I think Cora is a decent manager . When he has a great team that stays pretty healthy ( 2018 ) , he is very successful. When he loses key players from the roster and injuries happen, he is not so successful. And when the team is full of holes, he is in trouble. Most managers are in that same situation.

 

I agree managers are normally paid a pittance, but believe Cora is one of the best. They brought him back after he was banned because of stealing signals at Houston, and in 2021 he worked a minor miracle getting the Sox to the ALCS--beating both the Yankees and the 100 win Rays--without a freaking closer. You know, like Jansen, whose salary right now, $16M, is bigger than the combined salaries of five starters--Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck.

 

Like everyone else, I'm distraught with the Sox defense right now, but I'm not sure that's on Cora. I say that because he was an infielder and a pretty good one--with the Sox.

 

Today, for example, Hammond the bonehead from last night, looked smooth as silk at SS.

[notin]

I agree managers are normally paid a pittance, but believe Cora is one of the best. They brought him back after he was banned because of stealing signals at Houston, and in 2021 he worked a minor miracle getting the Sox to the ALCS--beating both the Yankees and the 100 win Rays--without a freaking closer. You know, like Jansen, whose salary right now, $16M, is bigger than the combined salaries of five starters--Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck.

 

Like everyone else, I'm distraught with the Sox defense right now, but I'm not sure that's on Cora. I say that because he was an infielder and a pretty good one--with the Sox.

 

Today, for example, Hammond the bonehead from last night, looked smooth as silk at SS.

 

Hamilton strikes me as someone who can show you both sides. There are days when everyone will wonder “why do we have him?” And days where we think “oh, that’s why.”

 

The trick for him is to have more of those second days. Now whether or not he’s capable of that is another matter…

[oldtimer]

Dalbec went 0 for 4 with 3 K's today. Why not just bring up a prospect who would likely be better defensively and couldn't be a worse hitter.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec went 0 for 4 with 3 K's today. Why not just bring up a prospect who would likely be better defensively and couldn't be a worse hitter.

 

I agree, but we've called up everyone on the 40, who can play 3B/SS/2B.

 

We could DFA someone (Jacques) and add Meidroth or Westbrook.

 

We could DFA someone (Jacques) and add Mayer, who is in AA.

 

We could move Mata to the 60 Day IL and add Meidroth, Westbrook or Mayer.

 

We could just sign leftover FA or trade for someone's defensively minded infielder.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

I agree, but we've called up everyone on the 40, who can play 3B/SS/2B.

 

We could DFA someone (Jacques) and add Meidroth or Westbrook.

 

We could DFA someone (Jacques) and add Mayer, who is in AA.

 

We could move Mata to the 60 Day IL and add Meidroth, Westbrook or Mayer.

 

We could just sign leftover FA or trade for someone's defensively minded infielder.

 

 

Mayer couldn't be any worse than what we have. why not?

[Elktonnick]

Dalbec reminds me of Middlebrooks. I do not think Dalbec is able to hit any type of breaking ball.

[moonslav59]

Mayer couldn't be any worse than what we have. why not?

 

He is likely better on D than others, but I'm not sure we should start his clock so early.

 

He'll be better to have playing at age 29 than 21.

[Duran Is The Man]

He is likely better on D than others, but I'm not sure we should start his clock so early.

 

He'll be better to have playing at age 29 than 21.

 

who cares? he can play or he can't. time to find out.

[moonslav59]

who cares? he can play or he can't. time to find out.

 

I care. I want Mayer at 29 not learning on the fly during a lost season.