A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[vegasbob]

How much history does it take to develop a theory that for some reason Whitlock's body cannot live up to the rigors of MLB pitching for 5 innings, every 5 or 6 days ? He is just not going to be that guy. He can be effective and of value but in a more limited role than starting pitcher, with 6 inning expectations for 30 starts a year.

[Bellhorn04]

And to make matters worse - Jacques is back...

 

Back to get shellacked.

[Bellhorn04]

How much history does it take to develop a theory that for some reason Whitlock's body cannot live up to the rigors of MLB pitching for 5 innings, every 5 or 6 days ? He is just not going to be that guy. He can be effective and of value but in a more limited role than starting pitcher, with 6 inning expectations for 30 starts a year.

 

You'd think this would be the clinching evidence.

 

But they'll likely give it one more shot, in what's already looking like a lost year for the team.

[vegasbob]

Almost humorous, how about 1000 preseason posts emphasized how important injury avoidance would be to this team's ability to compete.

 

Here it is April 17 and 60% of the presumed starters are either wiped out fully ( Giolito) or partially ( Pivetta/Whitlock). Speaking of knocked out, the 2 biggest RH bats (Story/O'Neill) needed for a full season are either gone for the year or nursing a headache missing a couple games at RH friendly Fenway. The only other RH "slugger" (Dalbec) is "a laugh until you cry" O for the season with mucho K's

 

Truly amazing how the wheels can fall off after just 10% of scheduled games. If there was any help available in the system guys like Dalbec, Jacques, Hamilton etc. would not be on the 26.

[Old Red]

You'd think this would be the clinching evidence.

 

But they'll likely give it one more shot, in what's already looking like a lost year for the team.

 

Going back to ST Brez, and Bailey’s pitching staff is not hold up very well.

[notin]

Back to get shellacked.

 

Like that old Bugs Bunny villain - Blacque Jacque Shellaque…

[Bellhorn04]

Like that old Bugs Bunny villain - Blacque Jacque Shellaque…

 

That was indeed my reference point.

[Bellhorn04]

Almost humorous, how about 1000 preseason posts emphasized how important injury avoidance would be to this team's ability to compete.

 

Here it is April 17 and 60% of the presumed starters are either wiped out fully ( Giolito) or partially ( Pivetta/Whitlock). Speaking of knocked out, the 2 biggest RH bats (Story/O'Neill) needed for a full season are either gone for the year or nursing a headache missing a couple games at RH friendly Fenway. The only other RH "slugger" (Dalbec) is "a laugh until you cry" O for the season with mucho K's

 

Truly amazing how the wheels can fall off after just 10% of scheduled games. If there was any help available in the system guys like Dalbec, Jacques, Hamilton etc. would not be on the 26.

 

And you left out Grissom LOL

[moonslav59]

That's basically it. He wasn't supposed to spend much, and Mookie was rather pricey. And outside of Devers, he really did not.

 

Story and Yoshida were expensive, but these were not upper echelon contracts. And Yoshida was signed in an offseason where 8-12 year deals were being handed out like Halloween candy, and his deal was still only 5 years. Although it will seem longer if he doesn't get hit hitting together.

 

The Sox are still spending near the middle of the pack, but that number will probably drop precipitously. After this year, the only deals on the books with an AAV higher than $6mill will be Devers, Story, Yoshida and Giolito (assuming he does not opt out, which is a very, very unlikely event). And the only players eligible for arbitration after this year are Joely Rodriguez and Reese McGuire. I expect (hope) Rodriguez will be non-tendered, and there is a non-zero chance McGuire is as well, assuming he is not simply traded...

 

I'm not completely convinced the spending continues to decline or hold even. I'm not saying they will spend more or much more, especially for 2025, but I would not be shocked, if they do. JH has a pretty long history of spending very big, sometimes, seemingly out of the blue, and then suddenly putting on the brakes. If you look at his entire couple of decades with the Sox, one could point to the Dodger dump trade or the Mookie trade/2020 fiasco as JH's boldest slash and burn moments, not the 2024 season. Just because a few owners decided to start spending bigly, all at once, and passed JH in the rankings, doesn't mean JH changed his strategy radically.

 

As for the 2025, your point is eye-opening. Only 4 contracts of $6M per or more on the books, and all are $18M or more. Nothing between Rafaela's $6M and Yoshida's $18M, except Bello at about $9M. Very strange. (Hendriks at $5M and Whitlock at $4.7M are the only other non-option deals.

 

There are more arbs than just McGuire & Joely, as several players reach arb 1 year. These will not be expensive, but are still slight raises coming: Houck, Crawford, Duran, Reyes and Dalbec. (Joely and Ref have options.)

 

 

I can't speak for Sox Nation, but I think many are already at the end of their patience. I'm not sure JH & Co. know this or care about it, but if they go one more winter in punt mode, they may irreversibly lose a sizeable chunk of their fan base.

 

AAV lost this winter:

$16M Jansen

$7.5M Martin

$7.5M Pivetta

$5.9M O'Neill

 

These guys might be traded, this summer, and their lost contracts are about $37M. If we fail to even just replace that $37M, let alone spend significantly more, all hell might break out.

 

I suppose they may look at the chances all the up and coming prospects and players can gel in 2025 are slim, and waiting until 2026 makes more sense, I'm not sure they can sell that idea, too easily.

 

Let's be honest. soxprospects projects Anthony, Mayer and Teel starting 2025 in AAA, but even if they rake, this summer and all start the 202 season in the bigs, can we really expect a Lynn and Rice situation? Here is what soxprospects projects for 2025, but I added the big 3 and left ___ blanks___ where I think we'd need to make essential additions to be a serious contender:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Houck

SP6 Fitts/ Criswell

 

Closer ______

RP2 Hendriks

RP3 Whitlock

RP4 ______

RP5 Slaten

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Bernardino

RP8 Weissert, Campbell, Fulmer, Guerrero, Kelly

 

C: Teel, McGuire/Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran/Abreu

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Anthony/Abreu

DH: Yoshida (Abreu/Valdez)

Utility IF _____ (Reyes)

 

Would JH & Co. view this roster as 3-4 major additions away from being serious?

 

[moonslav59]

I just want a name, not a link to the post. I log on here more than I care to admit, and I haven't seen anyone who wanted Whitlock in the rotation. Plenty of people who expected him to be (myself included), but none of them wanted him there...

 

Hell, some felt like I did, and didn't want Whitlock, Houck or Crawford in the rotation, the latter might have been just me.

 

There were even arguments to be made for Pivetta to be in the pen, if 2-3 of the other guys were not there.

[vegasbob]

And you left out Grissom LOL

 

It was intentional. Grissom does not exist to me . Just another lost soul wandering in the wilderness. When he does come in from the cold, he'll certainly get a warm welcome from his 4 or 6 fans .

[vegasbob]

Can't wait to see who the first non-organizational player added to the 2024 RS will be. Whoever it is will be welcomed with open arm. Edited April 17, 2024 by vegasbob

[Elktonnick]

Best performance by a Red Sox pitcher in 2 years!!! Fantastic effort by Tanner Houck.

[moonslav59]

Not to take anything away from Houck, but he and Crawford are the best 1-2 punch in MLB after 8 starts.

 

48 IP (6 IP/GS)

31 Hits

10 BB

52 Ks

0.94 ERA

0.854 WHIP

 

Crawford leads MLB in ERA at 0.42. Houck is 8th at 1.35. (Pivetta and Whitlock would be up on the list, if they had more IP.)

 

[Nick]

This board pretty much have no credibility.

 

So many wanted Houck in the pen.

 

Starting pitching is highly sought after commodity.

 

You give guys like Houck, Kutter and even Whitlock long leash to see if they can start.

[Nick]

Maybe Hohn Henry does not have issues spending money.

 

But like most wealthy people he doesn't like to waste money.

 

More and more $23M and $17M for Story and Yoshida seems an overpay

 

Throw in Guolito deal that bow guarantees $38M for at best one year peeformance doesn't bolster confidence.

 

$10M for Kluber and ither blown money can anyone blame him?

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe Hohn Henry does not have issues spending money.

 

But like most wealthy people he doesn't like to waste money.

 

More and more $23M and $17M for Story and Yoshida seems an overpay

 

Throw in Guolito deal that bow guarantees $38M for at best one year peeformance doesn't bolster confidence.

 

$10M for Kluber and ither blown money can anyone blame him?

 

Relatedly--as I've already said too many times--this year's starting rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck are collectively being paid $14M, which is $2M less than Jansen. And it's the rotation, beyond any question, that is carrying this team, now 10-9. The hitting, fielding, and bullpen all stink. Last night Jansen was lucky to give up just the 1 run because he threw nothing but 91-92 mph cutters. Cleveland hit everything hard except the final ground out after Jansen gave up the tying run and blew the save.

[moonslav59]

Our pen does not suck. It is about middle of the pack in every category and 7th in xFIP-.

 

Our O is 21st w fangraphs. 16th in runs (1 from top 15.)

20th in wRC+ and OPS puts in the middle tier on O, although borderline bottom tier.

 

Our D sucks, bigtime!

[a700hitter]

Whitlock is officially on the 15 day DL which will probably end up being more

That is right on schedule. By Friday, Houck will probably join him.

[Larry Cook]

Wong is on fire!!!!!!

[Duran Is The Man]

He’s played 50 games since 2020. That’s fewer than several retired shortstops in that timeframe…

 

i know. that's one of the reasons i thought it was a stupid signing last year.

[Duran Is The Man]

He is still out there. No idea about the health of his knee. When he was healthy, he was a pretty good defender. Maybe the Sox soured on the relationship?

 

the Sox signed him because he was relatively cheap but got burned in the end. but what gets me is they appeared to be frustrated at Sale for all of his injuries yet year after year they sign rehab projects like Mondesi, Paxton and Hendricks.

[notin]

the Sox signed him because he was relatively cheap but got burned in the end. but what gets me is they appeared to be frustrated at Sale for all of his injuries yet year after year they sign rehab projects like Mondesi, Paxton and Hendricks.

 

Largely because the money some on Mondedi, Paxton and Hendricks is infinitesimal compared to what they spent on Sale…

 

Heck the type of Bookmark Deal Hendricks got from Boston has been done around the league for a while now..,

[Duran Is The Man]

I don't believe Adalberto is a solution either. I was just stating the facts.

 

yeah, and he's still out there because what notin said.....50 games in 3 years. i guess he couldn't find any suckers this year like he did last year.

[Duran Is The Man]

Largely because the money some on Mondedi, Paxton and Hendricks is infinitesimal compared to what they spent on Sale…

 

Heck the type of Bookmark Deal Hendricks got from Boston has been done around the league for a while now..,

 

well....i sorta get it with Hendricks because he didn't have the injury history of Paxton and Adalberto. and to be clear, i was as frustrated with Sale as anyone and thought DD was an idiot for giving him the extension.

[notin]

yeah, and he's still out there because what notin said.....50 games in 3 years. i guess he couldn't find any suckers this year like he did last year.

 

To be fair, Mondesi was going to get paid by someone last year. If not the Sox, then the Royals would have had to keep him. We just would have held on to the frequently injured Josh Taylor, who did pitch last year. But so far this year has been out all year…

[jad]

This board pretty much have no credibility.

 

So many wanted Houck in the pen.

 

Starting pitching is highly sought after commodity.

 

You give guys like Houck, Kutter and even Whitlock long leash to see if they can start.

 

Why should a bunch of guys shooting the sh*t about sports have credibility? We're not 'professional posters'.

[notin]

Maybe Hohn Henry does not have issues spending money.

 

But like most wealthy people he doesn't like to waste money.

 

More and more $23M and $17M for Story and Yoshida seems an overpay

 

Throw in Guolito deal that bow guarantees $38M for at best one year peeformance doesn't bolster confidence.

 

$10M for Kluber and ither blown money can anyone blame him?

 

Well he blew his chance to spend it on a good player in Betts …

Edited April 18, 2024 by notin

[notin]

This board pretty much have no credibility.

 

So many wanted Houck in the pen.

 

Starting pitching is highly sought after commodity.

 

You give guys like Houck, Kutter and even Whitlock long leash to see if they can start.

 

I always liked Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, but not Crawford. And Houck and Whitlock gave me plenty of evidence to support this.

 

But thanks for calling me out after one good start!!

[moonslav59]

I always liked Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, but not Crawford. And Houck and Whitlock gave me plenty of evidence to support this.

 

But thanks for calling me out after one good start!!

 

It's more than just one good start, but yes. You always wanted Crawford in the starting 5.

 

I was fine with Houck in the 5, as long as we had a couple really good long men, in case he struggled after 18 batters. (That would be Whitlock plus one from Crawford or Pivetta.)

 

Nobody in the whole world was happy with our choice of this starting 5, unless it was fans of our opponents.

 

BTW, who was the poster who wanted Seth Lugo and or Imanaga? True, that poster suggested many others that are now on the IL or looking bad, but most of us wanted an attempt beyond Gio. (I was never high on Gio, but not because of any injury risk.)

 

Here is a look at some selected SP'ers with 10+ IP in 2024:

 

1. Crawford 0.9

T2. Bieber 0.8 (trade talk, but is out for the season)

T9. Imanaga 0.7

T12. Seth Lugo 0.6

T12. Cease 0.6 (trade talk)

T12. Burnes 0.6 (trade talk)

T12. Houck 0.6

T12. Blackburn 0.6 (trade talk)

T23. Wacha 0.5

T23. S Gray 0.5

T23. M Perez 0.5

T23. Glasnow 0.5 (traded)

T23. Javier 0.5 (trade talk)

T41. M Keller (trade talk)

T41. Whitlock 0.4 (on IL)

T41. Pivetta 0.4 (on IL)

T41. T Rogers (trade talk)

T41 Yamamoto 0.4

T56. Nate, Matz, Stroman, Sale, T Anderson

 

 

 

fWAR