A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[oldtimer]

Maybe Yoshida heats up, again, this May and June, and we can get out from under most of his contract via trade. Add McGuire and Pivetta to sweeten the deal.

 

2025

C Teel & Wong

1B Devers/Casas

DH Casas/Devers

2B Grissom, Reyes

SS Story/Mayer

3B Mayer/Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela/Anthony

RF Anthony/Abreu

 

(Rafaela could platoon with Abreu, as Anthony alternates between RF and CF.)

 

Now, we just need JH to okay some major investment into pitching. (Jansen, Martin and Pivetta come off the books. Gio should return. Hendriks should be back.) We should know a lot more about who we can trust as starters out of Bello, Crawford, Houck and Whitlock.

 

 

Take Dalbec off the 40 man. How many times does it take to realize he can't hit ML pitching and is only a marginal fielder. Bring up Anthony and move Rafaela to ss for the time being. Let's make some meanigful moves instead of sitting on our hands. Moving Devers to first might help our defense andCasas to DH while trading Yoshida. Moves to help the defense and to get rid of as many one way players and poor defenders as possible.

[Randy Red Sox]

Why?

 

Dombrowski was allowed to jettison two big contracts.

 

And playing Yoshida only adds value if he is successful. Are the Sox worth more with their best lineup or their most expensive lineup?

 

this team started the fall about when 1} John Henry decided to get cheap and 2} the day he fired DD

[Randy Red Sox]

Actually, he was about to trade Betts, but a short winning streak changed the plans. It was not a point where "all hope was extinguished."

 

Also, aren't we at a point now, where we have less hope than at any point in DD'd reign?

 

 

I hope DD writes a tell all book once day. It would be a great read

[notin]

this team started the fall about when 1} John Henry decided to get cheap and 2} the day he fired DD

 

Those two are the same day. DD is not exactly known for running teams with low payrolls…

[moonslav59]

Take Dalbec off the 40 man. How many times does it take to realize he can't hit ML pitching and is only a marginal fielder. Bring up Anthony and move Rafaela to ss for the time being. Let's make some meanigful moves instead of sitting on our hands. Moving Devers to first might help our defense andCasas to DH while trading Yoshida. Moves to help the defense and to get rid of as many one way players and poor defenders as possible.

 

I was one of Bobby Dee's biggest supporters through 2021 and part of '22, but his time ran out months, if not over a year ago.

 

I think Dalbec and Jacques will be DFA's, this year, or be relegated to non 40 man roster farm hands.

 

I'd DFA Dalbec, today and add Westbrook to the 40.

 

[moonslav59]

Those two are the same day. DD is not exactly known for running teams with low payrolls…

 

While the extensions to Sale and Bogey showed JH was still spending into 2019 and 2020, not bring back Kimbrell & Kelly AND not replacing them in kind, was the first sign of not keeping up with spending. That day preceded DD's departure.

[notin]

I was one of Bobby Dee's biggest supporters through 2021 and part of '22, but his time ran out months, if not over a year ago.

 

I think Dalbec and Jacques will be DFA's, this year, or be relegated to non 40 man roster farm hands.

 

I'd DFA Dalbec, today and add Westbrook to the 40.

 

 

Dalbec and Jacques are both useless. Jacques expiration date passed when MLB imposed the three batter minimum rule, thus killing the closest thing to a useful skill that he has.

 

Both should be DFAd, but I’d scan the waiver wire. Two oft-waived plsyers this year have been Livan Soto and Diego Castillo (the former Pirate INF, not the former Tampa RP). Either would be useful right now.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec and Jacques are both useless. Jacques expiration date passed when MLB imposed the three batter minimum rule, thus killing the closest thing to a useful skill that he has.

 

Both should be DFAd, but I’d scan the waiver wire. Two oft-waived plsyers this year have been Livan Soto and Diego Castillo (the former Pirate INF, not the former Tampa RP). Either would be useful right now.

 

Agreed, or sign the oft-mentioned Andrus for cheap. (He'd take a while to get ML ready, though.)

 

It's amazing how Dalbec is second in 40 man roster seniority to Devers. Pivetta is 3rd, and he was added late August of '20! What a massive roster overhaul!

 

My DFA list:

1. Jacques

2. Dalbec (second, only because we have no back-up 1Bman- add Kavadas?)

3. Uwasawa

 

Trade/DFA

B Walter

Joely

Refsnyder (only if we plan on demoting Rafaela or Abreu)

Heineman (if we are ready to add Teel to the 40.)

 

We could also move Mata to the 60 day IL, so we could add a man to the 40.

 

Who gets added?

1. Westbrook (2B, 3B, corner OF)

2. Sogard (SS, 3B, 2B)

3. Eddy Alvarez (SS, 2B, 3B, corner OF)

4. Meidroth (3B)

5. Hickey (C, DH, only if a C gets hurt, and we don't want Heineman, instead.)

 

It is likely we will go with what we have until Grissom is called up from rehab.

 

I do not see Anthony, Teel or Mayer being called up, this year- maybe 1 or 2 in SEPT.

 

I'd like to see Yorke and Jordan promoted to AAA. I'm not sure when the big 3 move to AAA.

 

Maybe Perales gets moved to AA. We need to find out what he's got. He does not seem good enough to be in A+ and on the 40, but with our pitching prospects, so low, I can understand why.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I've not given up all hope on this year, but realistically our chances are worse than '22 and '23's.

 

It is rare to make trades, this early, or even into May and mid June, but looking at possible players to move, at some point, is something worth discussing, IMO.

 

We have to look at our 1 years players in terms of either extending or trading, when we think the maximum return is possible. With Pivetta injured, he'd need to have a few good starts before we can expect a nice return. (I'd like to see us try to extend him for 2-3 years at a reasonable cost.) O'Neill has always seemed like an injury waiting to happen, so waiting on him, might mean missing the window, if he gets a season-ending injury. Jansen & Martin look like obvious tradeable players, since their age means an extension is unlikely.

 

The next set of players involves 2 year players and players who do not seem to fit into our long term plans.

McGuire has one more arb year, but Wong has more, so depending on Teel's ETA, he may be trade bait.

Yoshida is looking more and more like a player we need to trade and pay to play elsewhere. If we can get someone to eat a chunk of his contract, even if it takes adding another player or blocked prospect to do so, it might be worth looking at near this deadline. If he heats up, like last May and June, maybe his trade value allows it to happen.

Refsnyder will be the 6th OF'er, if everyone is healthy. He'll be 5th in 2025, if we don't bring O'Neill back or add another RH'd OF bat. Ref does hit lefties very well, so maybe he holds on. It might take Rafaela or Abreu looking awful for him to win the 4th or 5th OF slot.

 

We can pretty much count on replacing Dalbec & Jacques by Rule 5 day, at the latest. B Walter, Joely and maybe a couple more guys might be axed, as well.

 

The Rule 5 eligible prospects do not include Mayer, Anthony and Teel, so adding them to the 40 may be put off until 2025. Here are some that might be protected:

Fitts

Yorke

Guerrero

Bastardo

Monegro

Jh Garcia

Castro (if he shows improvement)

 

Longer shots:

Hickey, Jordan, Kavadas, Paulino, Rosario, Rosier, Sogard

Dobbins, Gambrell, Troye, Sena

 

Mayer and Bleis are Dec 2025

Anthony and Teel are Dec 2026

[moonslav59]

As much as our farm has been bashed, and rightfully so, for not producing quality pitchers for over a decade, maybe this year will prove we underestimated what we have gotten, recently.

 

ERA leaders in MLB (10+ IP)

5. Crawford 0.57

7. Pivetta 0.82 (was a product of Philly)

14. Whitlock 2.26(NYY farm but added as a prospect)

32. Houck 2.04

56. Wink 2.79 (9.2 IP, started with KCR)

 

That's 4 pretty decent pitchers, so far.

 

[moonslav59]

fWAR leaders in pitching

0.8 Crochet, Detmers, Wheeler and Bieber (out for season)

T8. Crawford & Houck 0.6

T30. Pivetta 0.4

T53. Whitlock & Slaten 0.3

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLB's Best

 

12-3 NYY (7-7 in the 10th*)

10-4 MIL

11-5 PIT

10-5 KCR

11-6 LAD

9-5 ATL

9-5 CLE (7-7 in 10th*)

9-6 BAL

9-6 DET

8-6 CHC

8-6 CIN

9-7 BOS 12th best

 

*CLE has 1st and 3rd with 1 out in 7-7 game with Yanks.

 

Edited April 14, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

MLB's Best

 

12-3 NYY (7-7 in the 10th*)

10-4 MIL

11-5 PIT

10-5 KCR

11-6 LAD

9-5 ATL

9-5 CLE (7-7 in 10th*)

9-6 BAL

9-6 DET

8-6 CHC

8-6 CIN

9-7 BOS 12th best

 

*CLE has 1st and 3rd with 1 out in 7-7 game with Yanks.

 

 

Guardians 8 Yankees 7….

[moonslav59]

Guardians 8 Yankees 7….

 

YES!

 

The beginning of a Yankee implosion...

[moonslav59]

Yankee SP'ers

4.50 Cortes (4GS/22 IP)

1.72 Rodon (3GS/15.2 IP)

3.68 Schmidt (3GS/14.2)

2.12 Stroman (3GS/17.0)

3.00 Gil (2GS/9 IP)

1.50 Poteet (1GS/6IP)

 

Red Sox Starters

3.92 Bello (20.2)

0.57 Crawford (3GS/15.2)

2.04 Houck (3GS/17.2)

1.26 Whitlock (3GS/114.1)

0.82 Pivetta (2GS/11.0)

4.50 Criswell (1GS/4.0)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Our next few games...

4/15 CLE (11:10 am) Playing well

4/16 CLE

4/17 CLE

4/18 CLE (1:35)

4/19 @PIT Like last year, we play them while doing well

4/20 @PIT

4/21 @PIT (1;35)

OFF

4/23 @CLE

4/24 @CLE

4/25 @CLE (1:10)

4/26 CHC

4/27 CHC (4:10)

4/28 CHC

OFF

4/30 SFG

5/1 SFG

5/2 SFG (1:35)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

We've just about reached the 10% point of the season. It is certainly early, and we will have some players coming off the IL (Grissom, Ref & ?) or the bench (Devers) in the next couple of weeks.

 

To have any real shot at doing something special, this season, we need to play well over the next few weeks as we play short-handed.

 

Our rotation has been unreal and needs to continue doing well. I doubt they can keep this pace up for the whole season, but being respectable and healthy would be a big boost to our chances.

Our bats need to wake up.

Our D needs to settle down and be more consistent and focused.

Our baserunning has not been horrible, and Duran offers some spark we haven't seen in a while.

[Old Red]

Win some. Lose some. Win some. The fans go from giddy to s***** either way in a short period of time, and it will probably be that way all year long.

[mvp 78]

Win some. Lose some. Win some. The fans go from giddy to s***** either way in a short period of time, and it will probably be that way all year long.

 

Can't win if you score 0 runs.

[Old Red]

Can't win if you score 0 runs.

 

True enough.15th in runs, 17th in hits, and 2nd in K’s, and it seems if they are not hitting the HR they are not generating much offense.

[Nick]

0-4 vs >.500 teams. All of you will have your heart broken if you're looking for playoff spot.

 

They took a step in the right direction today by moving Rafaela to shortstop. My guess is he can return to centerfield without much work. He's the best option at shortstop right now.

 

This will allow Abreu to get bats in right field.

 

I wait for the arrival of Grissom.

[notin]

0-4 vs >.500 teams. All of you will have your heart broken if you're looking for playoff spot.

 

They took a step in the right direction today by moving Rafaela to shortstop. My guess is he can return to centerfield without much work. He's the best option at shortstop right now.

 

This will allow Abreu to get bats in right field.

 

I wait for the arrival of Grissom.

 

When Grissom arrives, it would not surprise me if he played SS. But the that means more of Enmanuel Valdez, who is to defense what ptomaine is to dinner time...

[mvp 78]

True enough.15th in runs, 17th in hits, and 2nd in K’s, and it seems if they are not hitting the HR they are not generating much offense.

 

Justin Turner was working out here in the offseason. He wanted to come back!

 

14.8% bb rate

13.0% k rate

[mvp 78]

When Grissom arrives, it would not surprise me if he played SS. But the that means more of Enmanuel Valdez, who is to defense what ptomaine is to dinner time...

 

I'd be a little surprised TBH.

[Old Red]

Justin Turner was working out here in the offseason. He wanted to come back!

 

14.8% bb rate

13.0% k rate

 

I was all for bringing him back. To think Story was going to replace his bat in the middle of the lineup was foolish.

[moonslav59]

When Grissom arrives, it would not surprise me if he played SS. But the that means more of Enmanuel Valdez, who is to defense what ptomaine is to dinner time...

 

Although Grissom did not do too well on D at SS with ATL, last year, they may view him as better than DHam, Romy and Reyes at SS.

 

Man, the SS position has been such a mess since last Spring!

[moonslav59]

Justin Turner was working out here in the offseason. He wanted to come back!

 

14.8% bb rate

13.0% k rate

 

He could have played 2B!

[notin]

I was all for bringing him back. To think Story was going to replace his bat in the middle of the lineup was foolish.

 

Reportedly they were trying to unload Story, so I don't think that was any part of the plan...

[mvp 78]

He could have played 2B!

 

No!

[mvp 78]

Reportedly they were trying to unload Story, so I don't think that was any part of the plan...

 

That will never happen now.