A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

I guess we should thank JD for taking out Aaron Judge.....

 

Speaking of JD: they JD vs Turner watch continues:

 

.864 JD

.813 Turner

 

Sox DH position:

.763 2022 (JD was at .790 in '22)

.820 2023

 

(Again, this is not meant as any slight against the well-respected- and admired JD.)

[moonslav59]

We are almost at the halfway point of the season. (We have played 77 games.)

 

We are on pace for 84 wins and 78 losses- an exact flip for 2022's 78-84 line.)

 

I'm going to project the final fWAR numbers for Sox players, assuming those healthy, now, remain so:

 

fWAR now> projected final fWAR

 

2.5>4.9 Verdugo

1.2>3.0 Devers

1.2>2.7 Turner

0.7>2.4 Duvall

1.2>2.0 Duran

0.8>1.5 Refsnyder

0.5>1.5 Wong

N/A>1.0 Story

0.2>0.3 McGuire

0.1>0.2 Arroyo

-0.8>-0.4 Kike

N/A>N/A Mondesi

 

1.1>3.1 Paxton

1.1>3.0 Bello

0.9>2.0 Houck

0.7>2.0 Whitlock

0.9>2.0 Jansen

0.7>1.9 Martin

0.8>1.9 Crawford

0.6>1.8 Winckowski

1.2>1.6 Sale (assuming he comes back in late August)

0.6>0.9 Scheiber (assuming he comes back in mid July)

0.0>0.4 Pivetta (as a RP'er)

0.2>0.3 Bernardino

0.0>0.1 Reyes (assuming he returns before Story

0.2>0.1 Murphy

-0.1>-0.1 Walter

-0.2>-0.1 Joely

-0.2>-0.2 Blier

-0.2>-0.3 Ort

-0.9>-0.9 Kluber

??? Garza, Sheriff and others.

 

Oh, and I project 88-90 wins and a possible 2nd or 3rd WC slot entry.

Edited June 24, 2023 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Speaking of JD: they JD vs Turner watch continues:

 

.864 JD

.813 Turner

 

Sox DH position:

.763 2022 (JD was at .790 in '22)

.820 2023

 

(Again, this is not meant as any slight against the well-respected- and admired JD.)

 

I think the majority of us loved what JDM did for the Sox and also felt it was time to let him go.

 

Turner's WAR right now is +1.5. JDM's is +0.6.

[moonslav59]

I think the majority of us loved what JDM did for the Sox and also felt it was time to let him go.

 

Turner's WAR right now is +1.5. JDM's is +0.6.

 

JD only DH's and has hit better, so far, but Turner being able to play 3B and 1B has been a big plus for us, and is basically the difference in bWAR..

 

In 2022, we used these guys as subs at 3B and 1B:

 

3B GS

14 Dalbec

8 Arroyo

3 Downs

 

1B (Dalbec started 89 and was horrible on D and O.)

53 Cordero

22 Casas

14 Hosmer

6 Arroyo

5 Vazquez

3 Shaw

1 Chang

 

2023:

 

3B: Devers has started 71 games

5 Turner

1 Dalbec

 

1B: Casas has started 58 games

18 Turner

3 Dalbec

 

[Nick]

JD only DH's and has hit better, so far, but Turner being able to play 3B and 1B has been a big plus for us, and is basically the difference in bWAR..

 

In 2022, we used these guys as subs at 3B and 1B:

 

3B GS

14 Dalbec

8 Arroyo

3 Downs

 

1B (Dalbec started 89 and was horrible on D and O.)

53 Cordero

22 Casas

14 Hosmer

6 Arroyo

5 Vazquez

3 Shaw

1 Chang

 

2023:

 

3B: Devers has started 71 games

5 Turner

1 Dalbec

 

1B: Casas has started 58 games

18 Turner

3 Dalbec

 

 

For DH guys, it seems better comparison would be to isolate bWar for DH position only.

 

But I guess the fact remains that there's a value in having a guy like Turner who can step out of DH spot and help out in the field. Especially the two positions occupied by lefties.

 

We're all thinking (I think we are) that Yoshida may be more of a DH in couple of years.

 

I'm sure Yoshida is NOT a bad athlete. But his vertical jump attempting to catch the ball over the left field fence was pretty pathetic. I bet Refs had much better chance of catching it.

[dannycater]

Lot of DH types are on the Red Sox...bad fielders galore

[Nick]

Lot of DH types are on the Red Sox...bad fielders galore

 

Very good.......my first laugh of the day. Lucky I wasn't drinking coffee.

[Nick]

How long are we going to let Duvall live off his first 33 at bats? We're trying to get into the playoffs and he's done nothing but to hurt the team by being non productive.

 

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA

33 11 15 05 01 04 14 03 05 .444

45 04 06 01 02 01 03 05 20 .133

 

He needs to heat up soon......I rather watch Duran, or anyone else.

[notin]

How long are we going to let Duvall live off his first 33 at bats? We're trying to get into the playoffs and he's done nothing but to hurt the team by being non productive.

 

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA

33 11 15 05 01 04 14 03 05 .444

45 04 06 01 02 01 03 05 20 .133

 

He needs to heat up soon......I rather watch Duran, or anyone else.

 

Absolutely true Duvall needs to get going again.

 

But benching him because of his last 45 at bats is just as egregious. And with Verdugo out right now, there really isn’t much else in the way of options…

[Bellhorn04]

Duvall had 2 things going against him when he returned - the layoff, and the laws of regression to the norm.

[Nick]

If Fenway can't cure him then nothing will......I anxiously wait and see what he can do at home vs the Marlins.

[illinoisredsox]

How long are we going to let Duvall live off his first 33 at bats? We're trying to get into the playoffs and he's done nothing but to hurt the team by being non productive.

 

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA

33 11 15 05 01 04 14 03 05 .444

45 04 06 01 02 01 03 05 20 .133

 

He needs to heat up soon......I rather watch Duran, or anyone else.

 

Would that be the same Jarren Duran who went 6-50 (.120) with 22 Ks from May 19-June 3?

 

Absolutely Duvall needs to get going again, but sitting a guy on the bench for a bad 2 week stretch isn’t the way to make that happen.

Edited June 25, 2023 by illinoisredsox

[moonslav59]

Duvall will get a very long look, as he should, but yes: get your ass I. Hear!

[moonslav59]

Duvall will get a very long look, as he should, but yes: get your ass I. Hear!

 

In gear

[Nick]

Would that be the same Jarren Duran who went 6-50 (.120) with 22 Ks from May 19-June 3?

 

Absolutely Duvall needs to get going again, but sitting a guy on the bench for a bad 2 week stretch isn’t the way to make that happen.

 

Yes, the same f***ing Duran who went from 6-50 with 22Ks from May 19-June3.

 

Duvall is a f***ing rental. Duran has chance to be a starter for long time.

 

Duran is under team control for another five year. He has made tremendous strides this year.

 

YOU CAN CHERRY PICK HIS STATS, but he has larger resume than Duvall this year. Close to 200PA.

 

Of course I don't want to see repeat of May 19-June 3 from Duran. That's far different than Duvall.....pre injury and post injury.

 

If you don't know the difference get the f*** out of my face.

[illinoisredsox]

Yes, the same f***ing Duran who went from 6-50 with 22Ks from May 19-June3.

 

Duvall is a f***ing rental. Duran has chance to be a starter for long time.

 

Duran is under team control for another five year. He has made tremendous strides this year.

 

YOU CAN CHERRY PICK HIS STATS, but he has larger resume than Duvall this year. Close to 200PA.

 

Of course I don't want to see repeat of May 19-June 3 from Duran. That's far different than Duvall.....pre injury and post injury.

 

If you don't know the difference get the f*** out of my face.

 

 

Geez, chill out.

 

If you can cherry pick a 2 week stretch (which you did), don't be pissed off when someone else does the same thing.

[notin]

Geez, chill out.

 

If you can cherry pick a 2 week stretch (which you did), don't be pissed off when someone else does the same thing.

 

I don’t consider “before extended layoff” and “after extended layoff” to be cherry-picking or having random 2 week samples. But both are small sample sizes that could easily be non-representative of Duvall…

[Randy Red Sox]

Wow--calm down buddy

Yes, the same f***ing Duran who went from 6-50 with 22Ks from May 19-June3.

 

Duvall is a f***ing rental. Duran has chance to be a starter for long time.

 

Duran is under team control for another five year. He has made tremendous strides this year.

 

YOU CAN CHERRY PICK HIS STATS, but he has larger resume than Duvall this year. Close to 200PA.

 

Of course I don't want to see repeat of May 19-June 3 from Duran. That's far different than Duvall.....pre injury and post injury.

 

If you don't know the difference get the f*** out of my face.

[mvp 78]

If Fenway can't cure him then nothing will......I anxiously wait and see what he can do at home vs the Marlins.

 

Per fWAR, MIA is the 4th best pitching staff in MLB.

Edited June 26, 2023 by mvp 78

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per fWAR, MIA is the 4th best pitching staff in MLB.

 

Can't blame it on Barnesy -- they ILed him and his 5.48 ERA

[moonslav59]

This team is all teases and let downs.

 

I’m still hopeful we can find a long enough groove to ride to the playoffs, but my optimism is lessening.

 

I still feel better about this team than 22’s, but even that is slipping.

[Bellhorn04]

This team is all teases and let downs.

 

I’m still hopeful we can find a long enough groove to ride to the playoffs, but my optimism is lessening.

 

I still feel better about this team than 22’s, but even that is slipping.

 

"The roster is what it is." - Alex Cora

 

This team is doing about as well as could have been realistically expected. It was projected to be about .500 or a little over, and that's exactly where it is.

 

With Sale gone, Houck gone a while and now Paxton questionable, we are going to have a lot of trouble staying at .500.

[sk7326]

"The roster is what it is." - Alex Cora

 

This team is doing about as well as could have been realistically expected. It was projected to be about .500 or a little over, and that's exactly where it is.

 

With Sale gone, Houck gone a while and now Paxton questionable, we are going to have a lot of trouble staying at .500.

 

Yeah. The irony is that even with the injuries, the pitching has largely been fine. Basically the 2nd quarter of the season has been an inversion of the first. Early on, the offense was good and the run prevention was ho-ho-horrendous. Now it is kind of the opposite.

[sk7326]

This team is all teases and let downs.

 

I’m still hopeful we can find a long enough groove to ride to the playoffs, but my optimism is lessening.

 

I still feel better about this team than 22’s, but even that is slipping.

 

I guess. But - honestly - was there REALLY a part of this team ex ante you thought "we've got this". The nice thing is I thought the pitching and the offense both had chances to be above average to good. But I did not think either was a given. Even if I picked 84-78, it felt like a 90 win season was a 90th percentile outcome for the talent level, particularly without Story.

[mvp 78]

"The roster is what it is." - Alex Cora

 

This team is doing about as well as could have been realistically expected. It was projected to be about .500 or a little over, and that's exactly where it is.

 

With Sale gone, Houck gone a while and now Paxton questionable, we are going to have a lot of trouble staying at .500.

 

Didn't the win projection INCLUDE the questions about Sale's health? This rotation stunk last season and were close enough to .500. They'll probably be around there this season too unless more shoes drop.

[sk7326]

One mitigating factor of course for Boston is that they have gone 40-39 against the 2nd toughest schedule in the league to date. (the Rays SoS is 22nd per ESPN) How much that ultimately matters - who knows.

[oldtimer]

This team is all teases and let downs.

 

I’m still hopeful we can find a long enough groove to ride to the playoffs, but my optimism is lessening.

I still feel better about this team than 22’s, but even that is slipping.

 

I expected the team to play .500 ball or slightly below this year. Our young starting pitching has been better than expected and Paxton is helping, however Sale is having yet another injury plagued year while getting Ace pay. This far into the season, I am hoping that Cora will stabilize the lineup as much as possible. Seems like we are putting a lot of sub-par lineups in and we go from a good run scoring team to one that has trouble getting the hit with runners on base. I question Cora's approach but admit to not knowing the circumstances. I still don't see us as a playoff team so recommend that Bloom take meaningful action to improve for the 2024 season.

[moonslav59]

I expected the team to play .500 ball or slightly below this year. Our young starting pitching has been better than expected and Paxton is helping, however Sale is having yet another injury plagued year while getting Ace pay. This far into the season, I am hoping that Cora will stabilize the lineup as much as possible. Seems like we are putting a lot of sub-par lineups in and we go from a good run scoring team to one that has trouble getting the hit with runners on base. I question Cora's approach but admit to not knowing the circumstances. I still don't see us as a playoff team so recommend that Bloom take meaningful action to improve for the 2024 season.[/size][/b]

 

The next 5 weeks will decide the buy or sell question.

[Randy Red Sox]

have no fear---Bloom will fill those spots with his BBB hunting

"The roster is what it is." - Alex Cora

 

This team is doing about as well as could have been realistically expected. It was projected to be about .500 or a little over, and that's exactly where it is.

 

With Sale gone, Houck gone a while and now Paxton questionable, we are going to have a lot of trouble staying at .500.

[Dipre]

Yeah. The irony is that even with the injuries, the pitching has largely been fine. Basically the 2nd quarter of the season has been an inversion of the first. Early on, the offense was good and the run prevention was ho-ho-horrendous. Now it is kind of the opposite.

 

As I've said before, the mark of a bad team.