A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I don't get why people are so surprised abour Duran succeeding. He has all the tools. Buyer beware on the BABIP, but he has top flight speed, which partly explains it

 

He seemed to be a bit of a mess last year, after getting off to a hot start. We're not known for patience, of course.

[sk7326]

I don't get why people are so surprised abour Duran succeeding. He has all the tools. Buyer beware on the BABIP, but he has top flight speed, which partly explains it

 

The good news is that all of the Statcast batted ball data is also pointing in the good direction

 

maxEV -> 112 from 110

launch angle from 7.6 to 9.4

Barrel rate from down 7.7 to 6.3

Hard hit rate up 37.3 to 44.9

 

So the barrel rate is slightly down - but he is doing the things you want to see that should lead to offensive success. All of the 2023 numbers are up from 2021, where you could cite some flukage.

[Maxbialystock]

Probably not significant, but right now overall team salaries seem to be the obverse of success on the playing field--

 

Rays and Orioles have the two best records in the AL but are ranked 27th and 29th in team salaries. Cincinnati Reds salaries are ranked 25th, and they lead the NL Central (such as it is). Arizona Diamondbacks salaries are ranked 21st and they lead the NL West.

 

Mets lead MLB in salaries but are in 4th place in the NL East. Yankees are 2d in salaries and 3d in AL East. Padres 3d in salaries, 4th in NL West. Phillies 4th in salaries, 3d in NL East. Dodgers 5th in salaries, 3d in NL West. Jays 6th in salaries and 4th in AL East.

 

Braves, 8th in salaries, and Rangers, 9th in salaries, seem to know what they are doing. Braves have easily the best W-L in the entire NL and the Rangers have the 3d best W-L in the AL and lead the AL West by 5 games.

[sk7326]

Probably not significant, but right now overall team salaries seem to be the obverse of success on the playing field--

 

Rays and Orioles have the two best records in the AL but are ranked 27th and 29th in team salaries. Cincinnati Reds salaries are ranked 25th, and they lead the NL Central (such as it is). Arizona Diamondbacks salaries are ranked 21st and they lead the NL West.

 

Mets lead MLB in salaries but are in 4th place in the NL East. Yankees are 2d in salaries and 3d in AL East. Padres 3d in salaries, 4th in NL West. Phillies 4th in salaries, 3d in NL East. Dodgers 5th in salaries, 3d in NL West. Jays 6th in salaries and 4th in AL East.

 

Braves, 8th in salaries, and Rangers, 9th in salaries, seem to know what they are doing. Braves have easily the best W-L in the entire NL and the Rangers have the 3d best W-L in the AL and lead the AL West by 5 games.

 

One thing is that salaries are (generally) negatively correlated with age. And so if you can capture some cheap cost controlled lightning - you can get something great. The challenge for a team like Tampa is you ALWAYS have to be cycling through.

[mvp 78]

The good news is that all of the Statcast batted ball data is also pointing in the good direction

 

maxEV -> 112 from 110

launch angle from 7.6 to 9.4

Barrel rate from down 7.7 to 6.3

Hard hit rate up 37.3 to 44.9

 

So the barrel rate is slightly down - but he is doing the things you want to see that should lead to offensive success. All of the 2023 numbers are up from 2021, where you could cite some flukage.

 

The only batted ball number you can kinda ignore is the maxEV as that can get generally fluky for players. His average EV is 89.8 which is relatively in line with the prior two seasons of 89.6 and 89.3. The most important thing to me is that he now has a higher LD% at 32.3 (24.9 is MLB average) which shows the improved contact.

[cp176]

I hope that management is having serious discussions about what to do with the likes of a Bobby Dalbec. He is putting up numbers that can't be ignored. He isn't talked about much here and I understand that but I find it hard to believe that this guys best days are behind him. There is a lot of Casas love here which I also understand. I'm just not sure that he gives us any more than Dalbec would. I think that he deserves another shot for sure. Maybe not with us but I disagree with those who think that he is worthless.

[moonslav59]

They need a SS now, not a 2B? I guess that’s the reasoning.

 

Most of us felt like we needed a SS before even EValdez was called up.

[notin]

The good news is that all of the Statcast batted ball data is also pointing in the good direction

 

maxEV -> 112 from 110

launch angle from 7.6 to 9.4

Barrel rate from down 7.7 to 6.3

Hard hit rate up 37.3 to 44.9

 

So the barrel rate is slightly down - but he is doing the things you want to see that should lead to offensive success. All of the 2023 numbers are up from 2021, where you could cite some flukage.

 

And he no longer looks like Scott Bakula Quantum Leaped into him while a ball hit to CF was already mid-flight…

[Maxbialystock]

I hope that management is having serious discussions about what to do with the likes of a Bobby Dalbec. He is putting up numbers that can't be ignored. He isn't talked about much here and I understand that but I find it hard to believe that this guys best days are behind him. There is a lot of Casas love here which I also understand. I'm just not sure that he gives us any more than Dalbec would. I think that he deserves another shot for sure. Maybe not with us but I disagree with those who think that he is worthless.

 

Boy oh boy have you misread the posts on Dalbec. Everyone agrees he is tearing up AAA for Worcester with fantastic numbers (OPS over 1.000, for example).

 

However, the problem is that the Sox currently have not one but two first basemen, and their third baseman (I think Dalbec is playing 3B) is Devers. In addition, it has been pointed out that Dalbec has hit AAA pitching well before, but could not hit MLB pitching. Plus he has defensive issues (at 3b and 1b).

 

I don't especially like Casas because he's slow and I think overweight. On the other hand, he is in fact hitting MLB pitching and his fielding is OK. And he's 23 (vs Dalbec's 28).

[mvp 78]

Most of us felt like we needed a SS before even EValdez was called up.

 

Cora didn't? They kept putting Kiké out there.

[moonslav59]

If anything Casas is the golden example (or starting to look like it at least) that you don't always mess with a guys approach, even if the results aren't there if the approach is sound. Casas is still just 23 and a rookie, he's still adjusting and getting better.

 

Sometimes guys just need time and NOT to be tinkered with.

 

Most players look at film, talk to coaches and fellow players, and tinker with their mechanics and approaches, when they feel they need to or noticed they are doing something different that before. The word "tinkered" covers a wide range of actions, including actions taken by the player alone- both physical and mental.

 

Take Duran, he's been tinkering with his swing and approach for years. It was likely one reason his promotion to the bigs was delayed. He may still be "tinkering" with it as we speak.

 

I think it is funny, when I hear someone say, "Cora needs to sit down with _____ and tell him he needs to swing at in zone pitches more often," or "take more pitches." Like it's that easy. I can just picture a batter walking up to the plate telling himself, "I have to take more pitches." If he's having thoughts like that while batting, he's toast.

 

That's not to say some batters don't need serious help with adjusting their approach or swing.

 

All this being said, and feel free to disagree, it's just my opinion, I would not mess with Devers or Casas- two wildly different approaches. I've said this before, but I think a line-up filled with varying approaches works better that one with all very similar approaches.

 

[moonslav59]

It took an injury and Hamilton is currently the only SS on the 40 man roster..,

 

I get that, but when Chang was injured, we called up a 2Bman and kept the inept Kike at SS.

 

We went and got Reyes in May before calling up Hamilton.

 

We've played Arroyo and even Dalbec for one game, instead of Hamilton.

 

We could play Arroyo at SS and Kike at 2B, right now, but we won't. We could call up Valdez and play Arroyo/Kike at SS. It was good enough back a while ago. What has changed?

 

I'm glad we called him up. I wish he was given a chance when he was red hot, but let's see what he's got.

[moonslav59]

moon is just like the guy in his avatar. Has to question everything, and in the end it drove him mad...

 

LOL! Good one.

 

I think what drove Friedrich Nietzsche "mad" was his desire to answer every philosophical question put to mankind. This caused others to question everything they ever believed as rock solid truth.

[cp176]

Boy oh boy have you misread the posts on Dalbec. Everyone agrees he is tearing up AAA for Worcester with fantastic numbers (OPS over 1.000, for example).

 

However, the problem is that the Sox currently have not one but two first basemen, and their third baseman (I think Dalbec is playing 3B) is Devers. In addition, it has been pointed out that Dalbec has hit AAA pitching well before, but could not hit MLB pitching. Plus he has defensive issues (at 3b and 1b).

 

I don't especially like Casas because he's slow and I think overweight. On the other hand, he is in fact hitting MLB pitching and his fielding is OK. And he's 23 (vs Dalbec's 28).

 

I don't think that I have misread anything. I have a fairly good idea who is playing in Fenway right now as well. Dalbec really hasn't been discussed much of late here. I'm thinking that Dalbec is 27 but I could be wrong. He is still young. I hope Casas lives up to everyone's expectations. And yup I know that he is hitting ml pitching at least a little bit. I want to be wrong about him but currently i think bringing Dalbec back up might even be an upgrade. If management is sold on Casas and we have dire need of upgrades, I think that we would be surprised how much he would be worth.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope that management is having serious discussions about what to do with the likes of a Bobby Dalbec. He is putting up numbers that can't be ignored. He isn't talked about much here and I understand that but I find it hard to believe that this guys best days are behind him. There is a lot of Casas love here which I also understand. I'm just not sure that he gives us any more than Dalbec would. I think that he deserves another shot for sure. Maybe not with us but I disagree with those who think that he is worthless.

 

I said this on another thread:

 

Dalbec might be able to hit MLB pitching given another chance, but at the moment the Red Sox just don't have room to give him that chance.

 

Hopefully he does get another shot somewhere at some point.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL! Good one.

 

I think what drove Friedrich Nietzsche "mad" was his desire to answer every philosophical question put to mankind. This caused others to question everything they ever believed as rock solid truth.

 

I dig the existential philosophers too. Reading a bunch of Sartre stuff right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Most of us felt like we needed a SS before even EValdez was called up.

 

Cora didn't? They kept putting Kiké out there.

 

We say a ton of s*** about what they should do. We're bound to be right occasionally.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't think that I have misread anything. I have a fairly good idea who is playing in Fenway right now as well. Dalbec really hasn't been discussed much of late here. I'm thinking that Dalbec is 27 but I could be wrong. He is still young. I hope Casas lives up to everyone's expectations. And yup I know that he is hitting ml pitching at least a little bit. I want to be wrong about him but currently i think bringing Dalbec back up might even be an upgrade. If management is sold on Casas and we have dire need of upgrades, I think that we would be surprised how much he would be worth.

 

He turns 28 next week. Forget Casas for a moment and recognize that Turner also plays 1b. He should be the DH, but right now the Sox have five pretty good hitting outfielders in Duvall, Duran, Dugo, Yoshida, and even Refsnyder.

 

Of those, easily the worst fielder is Yoshida, so he is kind of competing with Turner for the DH slot--assuming the Sox want Casas to play 1b.

 

So my point--actually, the point raised by others--is that the Sox could probably do very nicely without Casas or Dalbec. Turner could play 1b every day and Yoshida could DH, which would improve the Sox outfield defense with Duvall, Refsnyder, Duran, and Dugo available.

 

Nevertheless, Casas is getting to play, I think, because he's 23 (24 in January) and appears to be able to hit MLB pitching.

 

And don't forget that Dalbec has had his chances. He played in 133 games in 2021 and 117 last year, so the Sox have had really good looks at him at this level. Last year his OPS was .652 and his WAR -0.7.

[moonslav59]

I dig the existential philosophers too. Reading a bunch of Sartre stuff right now.

 

I took an extensive class in Existentialism while at ND, and it really opened my eyes. I, then took several other Philosophy electives, almost enough to Minor in Philosophy, but the course on Nietzche was incredible. It helped to have a brilliant professor.

[moonslav59]

He turns 28 next week. Forget Casas for a moment and recognize that Turner also plays 1b. He should be the DH, but right now the Sox have five pretty good hitting outfielders in Duvall, Duran, Dugo, Yoshida, and even Refsnyder.

 

Of those, easily the worst fielder is Yoshida, so he is kind of competing with Turner for the DH slot--assuming the Sox want Casas to play 1b.

 

So my point--actually, the point raised by others--is that the Sox could probably do very nicely without Casas or Dalbec. Turner could play 1b every day and Yoshida could DH, which would improve the Sox outfield defense with Duvall, Refsnyder, Duran, and Dugo available.

 

Nevertheless, Casas is getting to play, I think, because he's 23 (24 in January) and appears to be able to hit MLB pitching.

 

And don't forget that Dalbec has had his chances. He played in 133 games in 2021 and 117 last year, so the Sox have had really good looks at him at this level. Last year his OPS was .652 and his WAR -0.7.

 

What killed me more than the long slumps was his defense getting worse and worse. The guy was supposedly an OK 3Bman.

 

I think Turner comes back, next year, but if he has a great season, he may think about getting a better deal than the player option offers. There is just no way, barring injury to 2 or more players, Dalbec will see extended time with the Sox, this year.

 

DH: Yoshida/Turner/Refsnyder

1B: Casas/Turner

LF: Yoshida/Duvall/ Refsnyder

 

Even with Duvall and Kike gone, I don't see it happening, next year, but it would just take one injury to give him a chance.

 

RF Dugo (Refsnyder when rest is needed)

CF Duran/Refsnyder (platoonish)

LF Yoshida/Refsnyder (platoonish)

1B Casas/Turner (platoonish)

DH Turner/Yoshida (platoonish)

 

Ref sits vs RHPs and one from Duran, Casas, Dugo or Yoshida sit vs L. See the problem? Dalbec would have to prove he hits RHPs better than Refsnyder to win a slot. If Ref or Turner gets hurt we could still fill out the line-up card with guys who look better than Dalbec on offense. (Forget about the D!)

 

No Turner? 1B. Casas, DH Yoshida, LF Refnsyder

 

No Refsnyder? 1B. Casas, DH Turner, LF Yoshida

 

We also don't have the time or space to see if Dalbec can hit RHPs. He's already had 573 PAs v righties and has a .689 OPS. While that's not horrible for a player's first 500+ PAs in MLB, we can't afford to see if he's fixed that problem.

 

His career .855 OPS v LHPs should open some eyes (338 PAs)

[moonslav59]

The Sox pitching staff is now ranked T16th in fWAR with LAD. We were bottom 5 or 6 for much of April.

 

Since May 19th (30 games)

2nd in fWAR at 5.0

2nd ERA- at 80

3rd in FIP at 3.74

4th SIERA at 3.85

4th BB% at 7.3%

T5th in BAbip at .282

6th in K-BB% at 16.5%

11th K% at 23.8%

 

[mvp 78]

The Sox pitching staff is now ranked T16th in fWAR with LAD. We were bottom 5 or 6 for much of April.

 

Since May 19th (30 games)

2nd in fWAR at 5.0

2nd ERA- at 80

3rd in FIP at 3.74

4th SIERA at 3.85

4th BB% at 7.3%

T5th in BAbip at .282

6th in K-BB% at 16.5%

11th K% at 23.8%

 

 

All they had to do was stop pitching Pivetta and Kluber so much!

[moonslav59]

All they had to do was stop pitching Pivetta and Kluber so much!

 

True, but then again, Pivetta has a 2.20 ERA since May 19th in 16.1 IP, which is the 6th most IP on the team in the last 30 games.

 

Also, Sale was lost, and more recently Houck. Whitlock missed a couple starts in this time period, too.

 

May 19>

GS: 6 Paxton, 5 Bello & Houck, 4 Whitlock & Crawford, 3 Sale, 1 Kluber, Dermody & Ort

 

IP/ERA

33 Paxton 3.24

31 Bello 2.61

25 Houck 4.32

23 Whitlock 3.13

20 Crawford 4.05

16 Pivetta 2.20

16 Wink 2.25

16 Sale 2.30

16 Kluber 8.62

11 Jansen 1.64

11 Garza 4.09

10 Martin 2.79

9 Bernardino 1.00

6 Murphy 0.00

22 Ort, Sheriff, Jacques, Dermody, Joely + Bleier

[moonslav59]

He is 100% responsible from the time he was hired.

 

He is in charge of all player development.

 

I didn't see Bello on the major league roster when he was hired.

 

This is his team. Including stupid acqusition such as Kluber.

 

Other than Devers who was an established major leaguer? And who extened Devers?

 

I do think it is fair to say Bloom had a hand in the acquisition and development of several pitchers on the staff. We've heard over and over how our system fails at developing pitchers and shuns drafting pitchers highly.

 

While Bloom should not get full credit for Bello and maybe not even half, he did not trade him away, like Kopech was. He has helped turned into the best pitching prospect this team has had since Lester.

 

Look at where most of our better young pitchers were drafted or how they were selected. How did they get so good without the system finally doing something right?

 

Houck: is another DD guy who was never really viewed as a solid ML pitcher. He was called up in 2020, so Bloom was not here to "develop" him in the minors, so maybe DD and his system should get most of the credit, here, but how do you explain this?

Under DD:

5.64 ERA in A-

5.14 ERA in A+

4.46 ERA in AA

4.11 ERA in AAA (just 46 IP)

Under Bloom:

3.66 ERA in MLB

Must be dumb luck, right?

 

Whitlock: Rule 5s are long shots, but Bloom nailed this one and he has been "developed" just fine, except for maybe all the jerking around of his roles.

 

Crawford: was a nobody. Now, he's is a key to this team's success. How did that happen?

 

Winckowski: was part of the Beni trade many bashed to no end. He seemed like AAAA type pitcher. I guess someone put some magic spell on him, because Lord knows, we can't credit the Sox system for getting the most out of a guy many felt would be a journeyman, at best.

 

Schreiber: is not young anymore, but he was 26 when Bloom selected of waivers from the Tigers back in February, 2021. The former 15th round pick has "developed" into a key pen piece for us over the past 2 years:

2.20 ERA in 82 IP with a 1.049 WHIP and 2.63 FIP.

Must be blind luck, right?

 

I get why Bloom gets a ton of blame heaped on him, and he deserves some or much of it, but maybe, just maybe, the corner has been turned on the task of successfully developing pitching talent in our system. Maybe not, but I think just maybe this has not all been hokus-pokus magic tricks.

[vegasbob]

Does Bloom get to include Bello, Casas, Crawford, Devers, Duran and Houck on his resume when he had nothing to do with acquiring them? That's not usually how we play HOBO vs. HOBO here.

 

I think Bloom gets to count them because 1. he didn't trade them away for a journeyman utility player, and 2. they have continued to develop under Chaim's close and personal attention to detail.

[notin]

I don't think that I have misread anything. I have a fairly good idea who is playing in Fenway right now as well. Dalbec really hasn't been discussed much of late here. I'm thinking that Dalbec is 27 but I could be wrong. He is still young. I hope Casas lives up to everyone's expectations. And yup I know that he is hitting ml pitching at least a little bit. I want to be wrong about him but currently i think bringing Dalbec back up might even be an upgrade. If management is sold on Casas and we have dire need of upgrades, I think that we would be surprised how much he would be worth.

 

Dalbec’s OPS through the years:

 

2020: .959

2021: .792

2022: .652

2023: .490

 

Casas got off to a slow start but has a .779 OPS since April 16. Dalbec hasn’t seen that number for 2 seasons and is on an obvious downward trend. His 2023 OPS is almost one half of his career high, which was during a pandemic-shortened season.

 

Dalbec has no future in Boston…

[vegasbob]

If I'm Bloom's agent, this is what I would say to John Henry.

 

You told me to build a sustainable playoff team on an annual basis. That's exactly what I'm doing. As I told you it will require patience.

 

He was hired on 10/23/2019, after a very disappointing season. Season following perhaps the best Red Sox team of 2018 when they were the World Champs.

 

Unfortunately for Bloom, he did not draft the players in 2019 and because of COVID, the 2020 draft was only five rounds. To complicate matters, no minor league games were played in 2020, pushing back if you will Bloom's project of rebuilding the farm a year. Obviously every other team faced the same fate.

 

We can all disagree, but 2020 was just full of s***, and not only from baseball perspective. I've already told you how I feel about that championship the Dodgers won. You can't convince me otherwise.

 

Then the first, real full season for Bloom yielded 92-70 record, good for 2nd place finish. We were up 2-1 vs the Astros facing them at home for the 4th game.

 

Bloom owns the 78-84 record he was responsible for in 2022, good enough for last place.

 

There was no excuse especially for straddling the fence at the trade deadline. It's in or it's out. To go over the luxury limit by few dollars was the ultimate sin in my books.

 

Here's his resume.

 

Sustainable playoff contending team.

 

24 Bello, team control through 2028

27 Whitlock, 2028

27 Houck, 2027

27 Kutter, 2028

25 Winckowski, 2028

23 Casas, 2028

27 Duran, 2028

27 Devers, 2033

27 Wong, 2028

 

Throw in Valdez (25), Abreau (24) Hamilton (26), Matta (24), Rafaela (23), Murphy (25), Walter (27). Maybe they've already moved from Dalbec.

 

I see extension coming for Verdugo who is only 27 (Yeah, I've said that it would be Rays way to move him and get couple of more prospects).

 

We lose Paxton and Duvall basically. Yoshida and Story are both under team control for few years. Basically we have every position covered with exception of either short or second and a DH spot, assuming Verdugo is extended.

 

There are low paid controlled players for most part. Leaving chunk of money on the table for free agent signing (s).

 

I think we're closer than many of you think.

 

PS. sometimes I say outrageous things to get the conversation going. But I'm not drunk, not high. This would be my defense of Bloom.

 

Nice outline of the team , Bloom's doings or not, that could be 90% of the lineup in 2024-25-26, most under full control for extended periods. By current standards it could also be considered cost effective for a few years, especially after Sale's clock runs out. A couple FA's could supplement the mound corps and the batting lineup for a little mature influence.

 

On March 29, If anyone had told you that the Red Sox would be last in the AL East, without Sale, Story, Duvall for 8 weeks, Paxton just reaching prime, Kluber a failure , Dever's BA in the .240s, Kike at SS almost full time with 14 errors, Schreiber on IL, Houck needing facial surgery , etc. etc., What would have been your Realistic View of 2023 ?? Bet it would not have been 39-35 !

 

This team does in fact have the potential to be a WC entry.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec’s OPS through the years:

 

2020: .959

2021: .792

2022: .652

2023: .490

 

Casas got off to a slow start but has a .779 OPS since April 16. Dalbec hasn’t seen that number for 2 seasons and is on an obvious downward trend. His 2023 OPS is almost one half of his career high, which was during a pandemic-shortened season.

 

Dalbec has no future in Boston…

 

You really listed the 13 PA sample size of .490?

 

The one reason I still have hopes in Dalbec is that he is a streaky hitter- sometimes long streaks of bad and one pretty long good one mixed in with some smaller ones.

 

It's hard to know who the "real Dalbec" is, or if he can ever gain some sort of consistency.

 

I think he deserves another significant look at the big league level, but I don't see a path for him, here, until 2025, unless Turner bolts after 2023.

[moonslav59]

Nice outline of the team , Bloom's doings or not, that could be 90% of the lineup in 2024-25-26, most under full control for extended periods. By current standards it could also be considered cost effective for a few years, especially after Sale's clock runs out. A couple FA's could supplement the mound corps and the batting lineup for a little mature influence.

 

On March 29, If anyone had told you that the Red Sox would be last in the AL East, without Sale, Story, Duvall for 8 weeks, Paxton just reaching prime, Kluber a failure , Dever's BA in the .240s, Kike at SS almost full time with 14 errors, Schreiber on IL, Houck needing facial surgery , etc. etc., What would have been your Realistic View of 2023 ?? Bet it would not have been 39-35 !

 

This team does in fact have the potential to be a WC entry.

 

Well said, and I'll add that the other contending teams all have several weaknesses, like we do.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 6 players above .790, and none are Devers!

 

1.066 Duvall (76 PAs)

.867 Yoshida

.836 Verdugo

.827 Duran

.813 Turner

.799 Refsnyder

 

.787 Devers

.761 Wong

.722 Arroyo

.712 Reyes (71 PAs)

 

.684 Valdez

.665 McGuire

.644 Kike

.515 Chang

 

We have 9 pitchers with an ERA under 3.75 with 12+ IP, and none are named Sale, Whitlock, Houck and of course Kluber and Pivetta:

 

2.08 Martin

2.12 Schreiber (on IL)

2.34 Winckowski

2.53 Bernardino

3.04 Jansen

3.29 Garza (13 IP)

3.49 Bello

3.74 Crawford

 

4.38 Whitlock

4.58 Sale (60 day IL)

5.05 Houck (on IL)

5.11 Pivetta

 

5.85 Bleier (on IL)

6.11 Ort

7.04 Kluber

7.29 Brasier (DFA'd)