A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Randy Red Sox]

Duran will not get any DECENT pitching back-certainly not a good SP. Possibly a reliever but we dont really need help there as much as other places.

So let’s get this straight - you think Duran, who is under team control for 5 more years, makes no money, and has been worth 1.2 fWAR in 220 PA (putting him on pace for a 3+ fWAR season) will NOT get any pitching back? But instead the answer is to trade away Kluber, Jansen, Pivetta, Dalbec, Duvall - and for what? You’re not even getting salary relief because only one of them is under contract for next year anyway…

[moonslav59]

If we end up selling, which it looks more and more like that's the way we are headed, then we do have a few pieces other teams would want, and we could expand the amount of teams making offers by offering to pay much or even all of their remaining salaries to sweeten the return.

 

We could also choose this time to trade off longer term assets we no longer think will be productive into the time frame of the rebuild. Who those players might be is unclear, but I have to think Dalbec might be one. (Maybe we "sell high" on Dalbec, Wink and or Crawford.)

 

The sell list would include:

Paxton

Jansen

Martin

Turner

Duvall

Kike

Kluber

Maybe Story, Verdugo or Pivetta

 

None of these guys, even when packaged will bring us anything amazing, but we could get lucky with a prospect or two.

 

It's hard to imagine us buying and getting what we need by trading Dalbec and Duvall.

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Our best trade chips (not including young talent locked up) are Pivetta, Paxton, Jansen, Verdugo, and Duvall.

[moonslav59]

Our best trade chips (not including young talent locked up) are Pivetta, Paxton, Jansen, Verdugo, and Duvall.

 

If we pay most or all of Jansen and Martin's deals, they would both be worth more than Pivetta.

[Hugh2]

If we pay most or all of Jansen and Martin's deals, they would both be worth more than Pivetta.

 

Pitching is such a market inefficiency I think we could find teams to overpay for guys like Jansen and Martin, but given that the Sox are sitting below the tax line they'd be dumb to not up the return by paying down those contracts. That should be very enticing for a team buying but doesn't want to increase payroll.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Jansen and Martin would be disgusting.

[notin]

Pitching is such a market inefficiency I think we could find teams to overpay for guys like Jansen and Martin, but given that the Sox are sitting below the tax line they'd be dumb to not up the return by paying down those contracts. That should be very enticing for a team buying but doesn't want to increase payroll.

 

If the Sox need to build a pitching staff, the worst way to do it is to trade away pitching. Unless you want a worse team next year…

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox need to build a pitching staff, the worst way to do it is to trade away pitching. Unless you want a worse team next year…

 

Kick it down the road, man! Screw 2024! We've all got lots of time.

[notin]

Our best trade chips (not including young talent locked up) are Pivetta, Paxton, Jansen, Verdugo, and Duvall.

 

Verdugo needs an extension. Apparently he is open to one, per MLBTR.

 

If you want a quick turnaround back to relevance, limit trading to players only signed for this year and positions of depth at the upper levels. That’s why I mentioned Duran. I suppose McGuire would work, but he would need to make himself relevant quickly, a tough order given he’s on the IL…

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo needs an extension. Apparently he is open to one, per MLBTR.

 

If you want a quick turnaround back to relevance, limit trading to players only signed for this year and positions of depth at the upper levels. That’s why I mentioned Duran. I suppose McGuire would work, but he would need to make himself relevant quickly, a tough order given he’s on the IL…

 

I would agree about Duran being our most logical trade chip right now.

[redsoxrules]

If we end up selling, which it looks more and more like that's the way we are headed, then we do have a few pieces other teams would want, and we could expand the amount of teams making offers by offering to pay much or even all of their remaining salaries to sweeten the return.

 

We could also choose this time to trade off longer term assets we no longer think will be productive into the time frame of the rebuild. Who those players might be is unclear, but I have to think Dalbec might be one. (Maybe we "sell high" on Dalbec, Wink and or Crawford.)

 

The sell list would include:

Paxton

Jansen

Martin

Turner

Duvall

Kike

Kluber

Maybe Story, Verdugo or Pivetta

 

None of these guys, even when packaged will bring us anything amazing, but we could get lucky with a prospect or two.

 

It's hard to imagine us buying and getting what we need by trading Dalbec and Duvall.

 

 

Trading anyone on that list would not be a good image for the team as it would admit failure from them. I'd be very shocked if one them is traded (aside from Paxton as he was always a low cost high reward potential signing)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

The sell list would include:

Paxton

Jansen

Martin

Turner

Duvall

Kike

Kluber

Maybe Story, Verdugo or Pivetta

 

None of these guys, even when packaged will bring us anything amazing, but we could get lucky with a prospect or two.

 

 

 

That last line about getting lucky made me think of the recurring sentiment -- and exactly why I had no faith in this roster -- going into the season: "If everything breaks just right, this group of players could contend for a wild card berth..."

 

... and now, it could bring back a prospect at the deadline -- if we get lucky.

[moonslav59]

Pitching is such a market inefficiency I think we could find teams to overpay for guys like Jansen and Martin, but given that the Sox are sitting below the tax line they'd be dumb to not up the return by paying down those contracts. That should be very enticing for a team buying but doesn't want to increase payroll.

 

There are a lot of teams in the race, and several will not want add salary or might, if it’s not too much. Expanding the teams involved in the bidding should help on any returns.

[moonslav59]

Trading anyone on that list would not be a good image for the team as it would admit failure from them. I'd be very shocked if one them is traded (aside from Paxton as he was always a low cost high reward potential signing)

 

Doing what we did last summer didn’t help the image, either.

 

Getting next to nothing firBogey, Nate, Wacha, JD and Hill was the bigger failure.

 

Look what we got for Vaz. We might be surprised at what we could get by paying down all these deals as we trade them.

 

Note: I’m not supporting the fire Sale idea, right now, but I’m being pulled in that direction with every loss.

[Bellhorn04]

We just don't have much to deal this time. I don't think there's any way they trade Jansen or Martin. Paxton might bring something back, but who knows how serious his knee issue is?

[redsoxrules]

We just don't have much to deal this time. I don't think there's any way they trade Jansen or Martin. Paxton might bring something back, but who knows how serious his knee issue is?

 

He was supposed to be in line to pitch tomorrow but it says TBD for tomorrow. So it's not a good sign.

[Bellhorn04]

Doing what we did last summer didn’t help the image, either.

 

Getting next to nothing firBogey, Nate, Wacha, JD and Hill was the bigger failure.

 

Look what we got for Vaz.

 

Have to note that what we got for Vaz hasn't actually produced anything yet. Valdez posted below replacement value numbers in his stint.

[moonslav59]

Have to note that what we got for Vaz hasn't actually produced anything yet. Valdez posted below replacement value numbers in his stint.

 

True, but 2 top 15 prospects for 2 months of Vaz…

[Nick]

True, but 2 top 15 prospects for 2 months of Vaz…

We created space for Wong and saved $30M.

 

You don"t think that counts something?

[Dipre]

We created space for Wong and saved $30M.

 

You don"t think that counts something?

 

He just said we got two top 15 prospects for a mere 2 months of Vasquez.

[moonslav59]

He just said we got two top 15 prospects for a mere 2 months of Vasquez.

 

Yes. I view that trade as a good one.

[dgalehouse]

The three wild card gimmick gives hope to a lot of teams, Sox included. Some are reluctant to become " sellers " because there is always that chance of getting hot/lucky in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

The three wild card gimmick gives hope to a lot of teams, Sox included. Some are reluctant to become " sellers " because there is always that chance of getting hot/lucky in the playoffs.

 

The 3 wild cards do keep more teams in it, but even with one, just 3 AL teams would be over 6 games behind, right now. I think it’s 7 or 8 NL teams.

[Dipre]

Yes. I view that trade as a good one.

 

"f*** them kids".-moonslav59, probably.

[notin]

"f*** them kids".-moonslav59, probably.

 

“On it” - R Kelly, most likely…

[Dipre]

"I wish I was there".- Jared Fogle, almost certainly

[moonslav59]

"f*** them kids".-moonslav59, probably.

 

"I got that backwards." Dipre, for sure.

[Dipre]

"I got that backwards." Dipre, for sure.

 

It's a joke bruh

[notin]

It's a joke bruh

 

Pretty sure my R Kelly quote was true..

[Dipre]

Pretty sure my R Kelly quote was true..

 

Good point