A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how many teams can field a team with 9 players over a .710 OPS, including a catcher and all players with 70+ PAs:

 

.761 C Wong

.722 1B Casas

.827 2B Duran (CF normally) or .715 Arroyo

.715 SS Arroyo or .712 Reyes

.787 3B Devers

.867 LF Yoshida

1.006 CF Duvall or .827 Duran (see 2B)

.836 RF Verdugo

.813 DH Turner

 

If .799 Refsnyder could play a middle IF slot, the bottom line could be raise.

 

[notin]

I'm not sure how many teams can field a team with 9 players over a .710 OPS, including a catcher and all players with 70+ PAs:

 

.761 C Wong

.722 1B Casas

.827 2B Duran (CF normally) or .715 Arroyo

.715 SS Arroyo or .712 Reyes

.787 3B Devers

.867 LF Yoshida

1.006 CF Duvall or .827 Duran (see 2B)

.836 RF Verdugo

.813 DH Turner

 

If .799 Refsnyder could play a middle IF slot, the bottom line could be raise.

 

 

Refsnyder has played 418 career games at 2b, including 43 in MLB. He originally came up as a 2b with the Yankees…

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder has played 418 career games at 2b, including 43 in MLB. He originally came up as a 2b with the Yankees…

 

Don't tell Cora this.

[cp176]

Dalbec’s OPS through the years:

 

2020: .959

2021: .792

2022: .652

2023: .490

 

Casas got off to a slow start but has a .779 OPS since April 16. Dalbec hasn’t seen that number for 2 seasons and is on an obvious downward trend. His 2023 OPS is almost one half of his career high, which was during a pandemic-shortened season.

 

Dalbec has no future in Boston…

 

Ok I understand your position so you have someone who is literally pounding the ball currently at the triple A level for sure in Dalbec.Then you have Casas who never really pounded the ball at that level and is showing signs of life but really isn't currently looking like a future Hofamer by any means. I'm ok with going with Casas I think going forward although I don't get that no brainer feeling that he will ever be a game changing hitter. I get all of the talk- blah blah blah - about casas being 23 and Dalbec being slightly older. You going to keep Dalbec because no one will give you what you think he is worth or do you trade him? would Casas bring more in a trade? What would a trade accomplish for us? I think that it is absolutely ridiculous to keep players in your minor league system who may be better baseball players than those on your ml roster. The Red Sox have done this on numerous occasions in the past.

[moonslav59]

Ok I understand your position so you have someone who is literally pounding the ball currently at the triple A level for sure in Dalbec.Then you have Casas who never really pounded the ball at that level and is showing signs of life but really isn't currently looking like a future Hofamer by any means. I'm ok with going with Casas I think going forward although I don't get that no brainer feeling that he will ever be a game changing hitter. I get all of the talk- blah blah blah - about casas being 23 and Dalbec being slightly older. You going to keep Dalbec because no one will give you what you think he is worth or do you trade him? would Casas bring more in a trade? What would a trade accomplish for us? I think that it is absolutely ridiculous to keep players in your minor league system who may be better baseball players than those on your ml roster. The Red Sox have done this on numerous occasions in the past.

 

Casas would surely bring more in return. If packaged with another prospect or two, maybe we could even get an ace or ace in training.

 

BTW, Casas did hit over .860 in AA and AAA. That's not like Dalbec's 1.000+ season, so far, but Dalbec has not always raked in te minors.

 

Casas had 25 HRs and 64 XBHs in 688 PAs in the upper minors. (76Ks)

 

Bobby D has a .949 AAA OPs (405 PAs) and .829 AA (563 PAs)

He has hit way more HRs (56 in 968 PAs) but has 277 Ks, too.

 

Assuming you trade Casas for something special, we'd go with:

 

DH: Turner v L/ Yoshida v R

1B: Turner v R/ Dalbec v L

LF: Yoshida v L, Duval v R

CF: Duran v R/ Duval v L

 

The thing is, I'd rather have Ref vs L.

Edited June 22, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Not a good night for the Sox.

 

NYY, TOR, HOU and TBR won.

 

BAL & Sox lost.

[illinoisredsox]

Refsnyder has played 418 career games at 2b, including 43 in MLB. He originally came up as a 2b with the Yankees…

 

Don't tell Cora this.

 

Yeah, but he sucked as a second baseman defensively. He hasn't even played second base, at least at the major league level, since 2017. He even said on the Sunday night game when they had him micd up that it was an experiment that didn't go well when the Yankees tried to convert him.

[notin]

Yeah, but he sucked as a second baseman defensively. He hasn't even played second base, at least at the major league level, since 2017. He even said on the Sunday night game when they had him micd up that it was an experiment that didn't go well when the Yankees tried to convert him.

 

But he’s fine for purposes of moonslav’s lineup…

[mvp 78]

Ok I understand your position so you have someone who is literally pounding the ball currently at the triple A level for sure in Dalbec.Then you have Casas who never really pounded the ball at that level and is showing signs of life but really isn't currently looking like a future Hofamer by any means. I'm ok with going with Casas I think going forward although I don't get that no brainer feeling that he will ever be a game changing hitter. I get all of the talk- blah blah blah - about casas being 23 and Dalbec being slightly older. You going to keep Dalbec because no one will give you what you think he is worth or do you trade him? would Casas bring more in a trade? What would a trade accomplish for us? I think that it is absolutely ridiculous to keep players in your minor league system who may be better baseball players than those on your ml roster. The Red Sox have done this on numerous occasions in the past.

 

Dalbec is 5 years older. That's not slightly older. He's in his prime, stuck in AAA, has been on the trading block and nobody else has wanted him. He's a bad fielding 1b who hasn't shown consistent hitting at the MLB level over the course of multiple years.

 

Casas career MLB wRC+ 105

Dalbec career MLB wRC+ 100

[Nick]

Maybe it's time Dalbec try pitching.

[mvp 78]

Caleb Hamilton called up to replace McGwire (IL).

 

Verdugo put on Bereavement List.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Word from Minnesota, Sox are making the following moves:

 

- OF Alex Verdugo to bereavement list

- C Reese McGuire to 10-day IL

- C Caleb Hamilton selected to MLB roster

- LHP Brandon Walter called up from Triple-A

- INF Yu Chang to 60-day IL

[notin]

Maybe it's time Dalbec try pitching.

 

 

Maybe his best chance…

[Dipre]

Ok I understand your position so you have someone who is literally pounding the ball currently at the triple A level for sure in Dalbec.Then you have Casas who never really pounded the ball at that level and is showing signs of life but really isn't currently looking like a future Hofamer by any means. I'm ok with going with Casas I think going forward although I don't get that no brainer feeling that he will ever be a game changing hitter. I get all of the talk- blah blah blah - about casas being 23 and Dalbec being slightly older. You going to keep Dalbec because no one will give you what you think he is worth or do you trade him? would Casas bring more in a trade? What would a trade accomplish for us? I think that it is absolutely ridiculous to keep players in your minor league system who may be better baseball players than those on your ml roster. The Red Sox have done this on numerous occasions in the past.

 

Dalbec is not an MLB quality hitter. If he was, he'd be manning 1B on the Red Sox or another team right now.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec is not an MLB quality hitter. If he was, he'd be manning 1B on the Red Sox or another team right now.

 

Or at least a UTIL role where he splits time at 3B/1B/LF.

[Dipre]

Or at least a UTIL role where he splits time at 3B/1B/LF.

 

Is Cp the new Dojji?

[notin]

Or at least a UTIL role where he splits time at 3B/1B/LF.

 

And 2b, SS and RF. Why are we limiting him?

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like it's going to take an injury or an extended slump by Casas for Dalbec to get another chance with the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Is Cp the new Dojji?

 

Nobody could fill that yeti's shoes.

[mvp 78]

And 2b, SS and RF. Why are we limiting him?

 

Because he should never play 2b or SS.

[mvp 78]

Looks like it's going to take an injury or an extended slump by Casas for Dalbec to get another chance with the Sox.

 

Good.

[Maxbialystock]

Looks like it's going to take an injury or an extended slump by Casas for Dalbec to get another chance with the Sox.

 

Dalbec could return if Casas is traded, which I've read is a possibility. The Sox could use more pitching. Also, right now Reyes is out with an abdomen issue and McGuire with an oblique strain. Both are day to day but that could change.

 

FWIW, Casas's current overall WAR is -0.4. Only Kike is worse at -0.5. But Casas is 23 and therefore has trade value which Dalbec probably does not (he'll be 28 next week).

[Dipre]

Dalbec could return if Casas is traded, which I've read is a possibility. The Sox could use more pitching. Also, right now Reyes is out with an abdomen issue and McGuire with an oblique strain. Both are day to day but that could change.

 

FWIW, Casas's current overall WAR is -0.4. Only Kike is worse at -0.5. But Casas is 23 and therefore has trade value which Dalbec probably does not (he'll be 28 next week).

 

I very much doubt they'll trade Casas.

[Bellhorn04]

It would be astonishing if Bloom trades Casas in a deadline move.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It would be astonishing if Bloom trades Casas in a deadline move.

 

That would go against every fiber of Bloom's rebuild... unless, say a highly-touted youngster turns out to have questionable character on anti-social media.

[moonslav59]

It would be astonishing if Bloom trades Casas in a deadline move.

 

It would take JH twisting his arm.

[sk7326]

Dalbec could return if Casas is traded, which I've read is a possibility. The Sox could use more pitching. Also, right now Reyes is out with an abdomen issue and McGuire with an oblique strain. Both are day to day but that could change.

 

FWIW, Casas's current overall WAR is -0.4. Only Kike is worse at -0.5. But Casas is 23 and therefore has trade value which Dalbec probably does not (he'll be 28 next week).

 

I guess trading him is possible. But the one thing about rookies is that they are (for the most part) bad. It's why you play them. And Casas has been getting better - and he is getting on base enough to maybe get to the good stuff.

[notin]

Because he should never play 2b or SS.

 

He should never bat, either, but you’ve working his way into the lineup at 3 positions…

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is not an MLB quality hitter. If he was, he'd be manning 1B on the Red Sox or another team right now.

 

I'm not so sure we know if Dalbec is not a quality hitter or not.

 

His sample size seems large enough to get a strong feeling, but I'm not so sure the answer is known. The guy is a super streaky hitter- both good and bad. Had been given a longer look, during any season, he'd have been one hot streak away from having decent career numbers for a player's first 1000-1200 PAs. Many good hitters do not have good numbers after 1000 PAs.

 

As it stands, if I told you a rookie had these numbers after his first 911 PAs, does he deserve a longer look, I think most would say, yes. (Pro-rated to 650 PAs)

 

.232 32 92

.751 OPS

 

The problem wit Dalbec is the recency effect. He sucked in his last stretch in the bigs, and it was a long stretch.

 

Here's a look at his streaks:

.959 in 92 PAs in 2020

.595 in first 173 PAs of 2021

.722 middle 137 PAs of '21

1.110 last 143 PAs of '21 (.916 last 84 gms/280 PAs)

.488 first 126 PAs of '22

.741 last 227 PAs of '22, including .786 stretch of 146 PAs

 

I'm not arguing giving him a chance, this year. We don't have a slot for him, but I would not be surprised if he does well on his next team.

[moonslav59]

@MacCerullo

Word from Minnesota, Sox are making the following moves:

 

- OF Alex Verdugo to bereavement list

- C Reese McGuire to 10-day IL

- C Caleb Hamilton selected to MLB roster

- LHP Brandon Walter called up from Triple-A

- INF Yu Chang to 60-day IL

 

I'm not sure how many more injuries we can handle.