A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

What will it take for us to think we might want to be buyers- not sellers- at the deadline?

 

2 of 3 @ TOR

4 of 6 v TEX & OAK

before the all star break

 

and...

 

4 of 6 on road trip v CHC & OAK

3 of 5 v NYM (3) & NYM (2)

2 of 3 @ SFG

[Duran Is The Man]

What will it take for us to think we might want to be buyers- not sellers- at the deadline?

 

2 of 3 @ TOR

4 of 6 v TEX & OAK

before the all star break

 

and...

 

4 of 6 on road trip v CHC & OAK

3 of 5 v NYM (3) & NYM (2)

2 of 3 @ SFG

 

it's going to get really ugly in Red Sox Land if they get beat up by the A's.

[sk7326]

As much as the 40-42 record is just how uninteresting the team is ... it really feels like I can just go out and mow my lawn or something in between Bello starts and not miss anything. I almost want them to just promote Rafaela so there is something fun.

[Nick]

I love watching Duval. 10 for 60 with .560 OPS in June.

 

It sure beats watching Duran.

[Nick]

Yep. No point in watching one year rentals.

[cp176]

As much as the 40-42 record is just how uninteresting the team is ... it really feels like I can just go out and mow my lawn or something in between Bello starts and not miss anything. I almost want them to just promote Rafaela so there is something fun.

 

Malzone, Bressued, Shchilling (Mantilla), Stuart, Tillman and Nixon, Mombo, Earl, Mr. Radatz, Dave, etc. I've been watching for a long long time and the recent championships have not spoiled me at all. It is all about the summer and having something to look forward to seeing. Since 67, I have felt at least hopeful regardless of the outcomes. Like I said earlier, Between Bello starts right now, I find this team uninteresting. the franchise has added players to the farm for sure, but who really knows how good they will be. Whoever is responsible for the mess for the last couple of years, really has outdone themselves. I would actually watch them, if they brought up the youngsters and played them - Rafaela and Yorke for sure. Please give me something to at least get a little excited about.

[Bellhorn04]

What will it take for us to think we might want to be buyers- not sellers- at the deadline?

 

2 of 3 @ TOR

4 of 6 v TEX & OAK

before the all star break

 

and...

 

4 of 6 on road trip v CHC & OAK

3 of 5 v NYM (3) & NYM (2)

2 of 3 @ SFG

 

You really think there's any chance left of this team being buyers?

[Bellhorn04]

As much as the 40-42 record is just how uninteresting the team is ... it really feels like I can just go out and mow my lawn or something in between Bello starts and not miss anything. I almost want them to just promote Rafaela so there is something fun.

 

And you're usually a positivist.

[notin]

You really think there's any chance left of this team being buyers?

 

They’re going to do both again. Sell something here. Maybe move on a controllable piece there…

[Bellhorn04]

They’re going to do both again. Sell something here. Maybe move on a controllable piece there…

 

So Red's Third Fork in the Road again. Yee-haw!

[moonslav59]

You really think there's any chance left of this team being buyers?

 

That was the question.

 

We know your answer.

 

I doubt we win at least 6 of the next9 to get us over .500 at the break, but if we do, the next15 games before the deadline could change things. I still have very thin hopes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I almost want them to just promote Rafaela so there is something fun.

 

Oh my stars and garters -- don't you understand how risky that would be to the future well-being of the youngster, the Red Sox team, and the universe?

 

I can't believe anyone would propose giving a baseball player a chance to play baseball in the best ballparks with the best-groomed surfaces and best lighting, in front of the best umpires and best crowds, vs. the best competition, under the best travel conditions, sleeping in the best accommodations, eating the best meals, and getting paid the best money.

 

That could ruin a guy for life -- imagine how spoiled he could get...

[sk7326]

And you're usually a positivist.

 

I am! And I don't take back any of it. The team could go on a run. There is more org pitching than there has been in a while. Casas is coming along.

 

But also taking inventory at the 82 game pole:

 

40-42

5 games out of the a playoff spot with 4 teams to hop over, two of them being the reigning ALCS participants

 

I'm a fan before the rest of it with regards to the Sox. And from that aesthetic perspective, where is the juice here? Right now - it's the Bello starts and that's about it. Shows how spoiled folks like me were with the buzz surrounding Pedro Martinez starts and so on.

[moonslav59]

I am! And I don't take back any of it. The team could go on a run. There is more org pitching than there has been in a while. Casas is coming along.

 

But also taking inventory at the 82 game pole:

 

40-42

5 games out of the a playoff spot with 4 teams to hop over, two of them being the reigning ALCS participants

 

I'm a fan before the rest of it with regards to the Sox. And from that aesthetic perspective, where is the juice here? Right now - it's the Bello starts and that's about it. Shows how spoiled folks like me were with the buzz surrounding Pedro Martinez starts and so on.

 

Well said.

 

This is the same team that went on a couple nice stretches. They could/can do it again.

 

I, for one, like watching Paxton starts, too.

 

I go into Houck, Whitlock and Crawford starts with interest, too- just not a lot of confidence. I keep waiting for that to develop.

 

I think the bats will warm up, again- I just hope for a longer stretch, this time.

[notin]

So Red's Third Fork in the Road again. Yee-haw!

 

Well if they just sell, they get minor leaguers. And for their assets, low level MiLB talent with questionable futures. What does that do for 2024?

 

What does anything they can get for Duvall, Paxton, Dalbec, Kluber, Hernandez, and I’ll even throw in Turner, Jansen and Martin do for this team next year? In fact, dealing the last 3 makes next year even tougher…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Putting this in the Realistic thread...

 

... entering the second half, optimists like to point the Sox are only five games out of a wild card spot -- just get in, and anything can happen; look at the '19 Nats, the '21 Braves, the '22 Phillies, the '04 Curse Breakers, etc etc etc.

 

Realistically, even if '23 Boston rebounds to squeak into the postseason... what does anyone envision will be a scenario where anything really good can actually happen? They don't have Cy Young/ Hall of Fame starting pitching, like '19 Washington... or four new home run hitters acquired in-season, like the '21 Braves (though they already have Duvall)... or both the league MVP and HR champs, like the '21 Phils (though they used to have Schwarber).

 

Maybe Duran, Hamilton and Rafaela will steal first more, so they can steal more runs, and stun opponents. Go-go-go Sox!

[moonslav59]

Putting this in the Realistic thread...

 

... entering the second half, optimists like to point the Sox are only five games out of a wild card spot -- just get in, and anything can happen; look at the '19 Nats, the '21 Braves, the '22 Phillies, the '04 Curse Breakers, etc etc etc.

 

Realistically, even if '23 Boston rebounds to squeak into the postseason... what does anyone envision will be a scenario where anything really good can actually happen? They don't have Cy Young/ Hall of Fame starting pitching, like '19 Washington... or four new home run hitters acquired in-season, like the '21 Braves (though they already have Duvall)... or both the league MVP and HR champs, like the '21 Phils (though they used to have Schwarber).

 

Maybe Duran, Hamilton and Rafaela will steal first more, so they can steal more runs, and stun opponents. Go-go-go Sox!

 

My guess is, boards like this one in Philly, last year and the other teams, cities and years you mentioned, were saying similar things as this.

[Bellhorn04]

Well if they just sell, they get minor leaguers. And for their assets, low level MiLB talent with questionable futures. What does that do for 2024?

 

What does anything they can get for Duvall, Paxton, Dalbec, Kluber, Hernandez, and I’ll even throw in Turner, Jansen and Martin do for this team next year? In fact, dealing the last 3 makes next year even tougher…

 

And on this point we are in agreement. And I will say, I don't think they would even contemplate that.

[moonslav59]

Well if they just sell, they get minor leaguers. And for their assets, low level MiLB talent with questionable futures. What does that do for 2024?

 

What does anything they can get for Duvall, Paxton, Dalbec, Kluber, Hernandez, and I’ll even throw in Turner, Jansen and Martin do for this team next year? In fact, dealing the last 3 makes next year even tougher…

 

In theory, you do the best you can to improve the 2024 roster by trading players not expected to be back, next year (Paxton, Duvall, Kike & Kluber.)

 

It's a little more complex when talking about trading players under team control, next year (Jansen, Martin, Turner w his dual option) or beyond (like Dalbec.) For them, you might get more return, especially, if you pay all of their 2023 salaries, and then in theory, you replace them with like signings, next winter- perhaps for younger and better players. Jansen+Martin+Turner is a lot of budget space opened up.

 

You end up with a deeper foundation and farm and then use the budget space to backfill key slots. You build off Bello and maybe some others that show more hope over the second half of 2023. There is no guarantee it works or even helps, but it makes more sense than what we did in '22.

]

[moonslav59]

And on this point we are in agreement. And I will say, I don't think they would even contemplate that.

 

The problem with trading Jansen, Martin & Turner for something decent, and then counting on replacing them, in kind, with equal money, next winter is that you don't trust Bloom to find equal value.

 

The theory makes some sense. The execution of the plan is scary, but then again, all those 3 could suck, next year, too. Their ages are warning signs.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a little more complex when talking about trading players under team control, next year (Jansen, Martin, Turner w his dual option) or beyond (like Dalbec.) For them, you might get more return, especially, if you pay all of their 2023 salaries, and then in theory, you replace them with like signings, next winter- perhaps for younger and better players. Jansen+Martin+Turner is a lot of budget space opened up.]

 

The younger and better players tend to be real expensive.

[sk7326]

Well said.

 

This is the same team that went on a couple nice stretches. They could/can do it again.

 

I, for one, like watching Paxton starts, too.

 

I go into Houck, Whitlock and Crawford starts with interest, too- just not a lot of confidence. I keep waiting for that to develop.

 

I think the bats will warm up, again- I just hope for a longer stretch, this time.

 

The Paxton starts are fun - good for him ... but he is 34, and will he be an integral part of the next truly good Red Sox team?

 

The Bello starts aside, this has been a thoroughly unremarkable team with a thoroughly unremarkable record.

[Bellhorn04]

The problem with trading Jansen, Martin & Turner for something decent, and then counting on replacing them, in kind, with equal money, next winter is that you don't trust Bloom to find equal value.

 

The theory makes some sense. The execution of the plan is scary, but then again, all those 3 could suck, next year, too. Their ages are warning signs.

 

The bottom line is, everything involves a lot of risk.

 

Jansen, Martin and Turner are showing they're in decent health and can still play. And we're talking about 1 year left to run on their deals. These are exactly the guys Bloom wants, I think.

[Bellhorn04]

The Paxton starts are fun - good for him ... but he is 34, and will he be an integral part of the next truly good Red Sox team?

 

And you left out the part about him coming out of his last start with a sore knee. For all we know, he's done for the season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My guess is, boards like this one in Philly, last year and the other teams, cities and years you mentioned, were saying similar things as this.

 

Maybe, but Philadelphia had legitimate star players last year, with the home run king all season, and the reigning two-time MVP coming off the IL and doing MVP things. Philly also played .700 ball in June, and .600 ball in July and August -- not exactly doing the one-step forward, two-step back dance that Boston has perfected in '23.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but Philadelphia had legitimate star players last year, with the home run king all season, and the reigning two-time MVP coming off the IL and doing MVP things. Philly also played .700 ball in June, and .600 ball in July and August -- not exactly doing the one-step forward, two-step back dance that Boston has perfected in '23.

 

They took off from the point DD canned Girardi.

[moonslav59]

The younger and better players tend to be real expensive.

 

Yes, but in theory, we should be able to just replace "in kind," and if next year is the year we go over the tax line, maybe we can afford younger and more expensive.

 

The biggest replacement for next year (for the money) will be Paxton, but in theory, we can use Paxton, Kluber, Kike and Duvall money plus maybe more JH money to add 2-3 SP'ers, and then moves the "experiments" (Houck, Whitlock and Crawford) back to the pen to complement or replace Jansen & Martin.

[moonslav59]

The bottom line is, everything involves a lot of risk.

 

Jansen, Martin and Turner are showing they're in decent health and can still play. And we're talking about 1 year left to run on their deals. These are exactly the guys Bloom wants, I think.

 

Oh, I'm not saying this is something Bloom will or wants to do, but it is an idea.

 

Also, if the "real plan" is more about 2025 and beyond, then it makes even more sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh, I'm not saying this is something Bloom will or wants to do, but it is an idea.

 

Also, if the "real plan" is more about 2025 and beyond, then it makes even more sense.

 

Sure, let's just punt 2024 too. Great plan.

[Bellhorn04]

How could Chaim Bloom possibly be expected to field competitive teams in his 3rd, 4th and 5th seasons? How freakin' demanding of us.