A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but Philadelphia had legitimate star players last year, with the home run king all season, and the reigning two-time MVP coming off the IL and doing MVP things. Philly also played .700 ball in June, and .600 ball in July and August -- not exactly doing the one-step forward, two-step back dance that Boston has perfected in '23.

 

We could have a lot of talent coming off the IL, too. (or not)

 

I'm not predicting the Sox will do what the teams you mentioned did, but I'm sure many of their fans viewed their chances very close to how we view ours, right now, before they turned it around.

 

It's not like we need to expect players to have career years to go on a long run into the playoffs.

 

Sale could come back.

Story could show some past glory.

Duvall ,could repeat what he did just 2 years ago.

Turner could repeat what he did the second half of 2022- Soooo long ago!

Paxton's knee could be okay.

Jansen and Martin could just keep being Jansen & Martin.

Devers isn't even at peak prime. Is it possible he has his best 3 months ever, starting now?

Could Kike, Dugo and others do better?

Could Whitlock and Houck just return to their previous ERAs?

Could some kids, like Casas, Wong and others take another step up?

 

We don't even need 2 out of every 3 of these things to happen to make a run. Maybe half and we are back in the conversation.

[moonslav59]

How could Chaim Bloom possibly be expected to field competitive teams in his 3rd, 4th and 5th seasons? How freakin' demanding of us.

 

Tanner Houck from 2017 to 2023.

 

You really expected Bloom to be adding the next Betts, Bogey and Devers to the MLB roster in 3-4 years?

 

Yes, very freakin' demanding.

 

Every successful GM we have had was greatly aided by the players and prospects left to him by the previous GM. Other than Theo, who was here the longest, no other GM was even around to see the rewards of his own prospects added. Expecting farm help from Bloom before 4 years are up is a stretch, especially since he drafts almost only HS players

 

I do not think 3-4 years to a ring was realistic. Do you?

 

No farm help.

Slashed budget.

Declining production fro carry-over vets.

Top carry-over players on the IL.

 

From this, you demand excellence from the GM?

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sure, let's just punt 2024 too. Great plan.

 

How is trading Jansen, Martin and Turner for something very useful, and then replacing them, this winter "in kind." punting?

[Bellhorn04]

Tanner Houck from 2017 to 2023.

 

You really expected Bloom to be adding the next Betts, Bogey and Devers to the MLB roster in 3-4 years?

 

Yes, very freakin' demanding.

 

Every successful GM we have had was greatly aided by the players and prospects left to him by the previous GM. Other than Theo, who was here the longest was even around to see the rewards of his own prospects added.

 

I do not think 3-4 years to a ring was realistic. Do you?

 

 

I never said anything about a ring.

[Bellhorn04]

How is trading Jansen, Martin and Turner for something very useful, and then replacing them, this winter "in kind." punting?

 

moon, you said the "real plan" could be 2025 and beyond. I was responding to that.

[moonslav59]

moon, you said the "real plan" could be 2025 and beyond. I was responding to that.

 

I said "if" the real plan is... it makes more sense.

 

(It still makes some sense for 2024, too, but only if they can indeed replace them "in kind" for close to the same money.)

 

It might be the higher priority, and quite frankly, building a sustainable winning team, it should be a higher priority more often than not- just not all the time.

[moonslav59]

I never said anything about a ring.

 

But you do believe just making the playoffs makes it a crapshoot, so to you, it does mean competing for a ring. (Not having to win one.)

 

I don't believe any Sox team since 2018 had a chance at a ring. After 2019, and surely after 2020, I did not expect one for 3-4 years.

[Bellhorn04]

But you do believe just making the playoffs makes it a crapshoot, so to you, it does mean competing for a ring. (Not having to win one.)

 

I don't believe any Sox team since 2018 had a chance at a ring.

 

Not even after Game 3 of the 2021 ALCS?

[moonslav59]

Not even after Game 3 of the 2021 ALCS?

 

yNot before any season.

 

I did say, in another recent post, I did have hopes. The weird thing is that I had less hope before 2021 than 2022 or 2023.

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox are in their usual spot in the basement of the AL East 5 games back of the Blue Jays. If they don't win this series it could be a long 2nd half.

[Nick]

Who would we get?

What would it cost?

 

I didn't think so.

[Dipre]

Who would we get?

What would it cost?

 

I didn't think so.

 

Exactly.

[sk7326]

I never said anything about a ring.

 

In year 2 they made the playoffs - and in baseball, that's all you need given how bonkers the playoff tournament is.

 

I am sympathetic with Bloom to a degree - he has been left holding the bag for a lot of ownership choices. I think ownership is trying to recover but squandered a lot of goodwill with some of those choices.

[sk7326]

But you do believe just making the playoffs makes it a crapshoot, so to you, it does mean competing for a ring. (Not having to win one.)

 

I don't believe any Sox team since 2018 had a chance at a ring. After 2019, and surely after 2020, I did not expect one for 3-4 years.

 

The way the playoffs have gone historically? Of course making the playoffs means you have a chance at the ring. This ain't the NBA.

 

But the more important point is - the fans I think are totally justified expecting 2021 to be the sort of floor for a team like the Sox.

[Nick]

I can see the benfit of trading for a young arm with 2+ years of team control. But I''m not sure what we would have to give up.

 

I just don't see Bloom making a DD type deals. ie emptying the farm.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Nick

[sk7326]

I can see the benfit of trading for a young arm with 2+ years of team control. But I''m not sure what we would have to give up.

 

I just don't see Bloom making a DD type deals. ie emptying the farm.

 

This is where moon is right - there was no farm for Bloom to trade anyway. But you'd like to see some of the development work bear fruit ... and the team has not been nearly aggressive enough when they have had chances to sell. I also understand 2020 threw off the development pathways a lot.

[moonslav59]

The way the playoffs have gone historically? Of course making the playoffs means you have a chance at the ring. This ain't the NBA.

 

But the more important point is - the fans I think are totally justified expecting 2021 to be the sort of floor for a team like the Sox.

 

I don’t think it’s justified, if all the details were known after 2019, but I’m clearly in a tiny minority.

 

I had hoped it would take just 3-4 years, and 2021 was a gift.

[Dipre]

I can see the benfit of trading for a young arm with 2+ years of team control. But I''m not sure what we would have to give up.

 

I just don't see Bloom making a DD type deals. ie emptying the farm.

 

He was brought in to do the exact opposite.

[moonslav59]

This is where moon is right - there was no farm for Bloom to trade anyway. But you'd like to see some of the development work bear fruit ... and the team has not been nearly aggressive enough when they have had chances to sell. I also understand 2020 threw off the development pathways a lot.

 

It takes longer than 3.5 years to see tangible results from a GM farm additions, even when many are college draftees- Bloom's have not been.

 

What other recent Sox GM went 5 years with just one meaningful graduating prospect from the previous GM, or in Theo's case from his longer history of additions?

 

July 25, 2017 Devers called up

 

Sept 15, 2020 Houck called up

 

July 22, 2022 Bello called up.

 

By the time Bello matured, it was almost 6 years from the Devers call up in '17.

 

I'm surprised so many don't seem to think this is such a big deal, or they seem to blame Bloom, we haven't seen more since 2020.

 

Context does not matter. Bloom was supposed to magically make young studs appear out of thin air- cause that's what they do in Tampa. Apparently, TB does not have to wait 3-4 years for their prospects to mature. (LOL)

[moonslav59]

Bogey signed as IFA in 2009- called up 4 years later, late in 2013.

 

Betts: drafted in 2011- called up 3+ years later in the 2014 season.

 

Devers signed as IFA in 2013- called up 4 years later, in 2017.

 

Bloom's first draft was 2020- a short one. Then, there was no minor league season in 2020, but the clock still started ticking for many "demanding" Sox fans.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogey signed as IFA in 2009- called up 4 years later, late in 2013.

 

Betts: drafted in 2011- called up 3+ years later in the 2014 season.

 

Devers signed as IFA in 2013- called up 4 years later, in 2017.

 

Bloom's first draft was 2020- a short one. Then, there was no minor league season in 2020, but the clock still started ticking for many "demanding" Sox fans.

 

 

That trio has two things in common: each guy made the majors at a really young age (20 or 21), where high levels of stardom earned them contracts averaging about $300 million dollars.

 

Nick Yorke, Bloom's first first-round pick in 2020, looks like he could be a good big league hitter someday. But he's already 21 and still in Double A...

[moonslav59]

That trio has two things in common: each guy made the majors at a really young age (20 or 21), where high levels of stardom earned them contracts averaging about $300 million dollars.

 

Nick Yorke, Bloom's first first-round pick in 2020, looks like he could be a good big league hitter someday. But he's already 21 and still in Double A...

 

Yup, and even if Yorke had Ben the next stud like one of them, he’d be called up just about now, yet somehow Bloom was supposed to already have seen ML results from his farm.

[Nick]

What would Texas give up to get Paxton?

[Bellhorn04]

What would Texas give up to get Paxton?

 

They just gave up quite a bit for Chapman. But it doesn't mean they'd give up that much for Paxton. Paxton still carries a lot of health risk. He should fetch something from someone though, the way he's been pitching.

[Nick]

Which playoff team contender has enough pitching but is in need of bats?

[Duran Is The Man]

Tanner Houck from 2017 to 2023.

 

You really expected Bloom to be adding the next Betts, Bogey and Devers to the MLB roster in 3-4 years?

 

Yes, very freakin' demanding.

 

Every successful GM we have had was greatly aided by the players and prospects left to him by the previous GM. Other than Theo, who was here the longest, no other GM was even around to see the rewards of his own prospects added. Expecting farm help from Bloom before 4 years are up is a stretch, especially since he drafts almost only HS players

 

I do not think 3-4 years to a ring was realistic. Do you?

 

No farm help.

Slashed budget.

Declining production fro carry-over vets.

Top carry-over players on the IL.

 

From this, you demand excellence from the GM?

 

 

 

"since he drafts almost only HS players", does that mean we're supposed to give Bloom a pass for the next 5, 6, 7 years waiting for them to develop? i'm thinking maybe he should be looking at some kids who are a bit closer to being ready.

[cp176]

What would Texas give up to get Paxton?

 

Why would you give him up?

[a700hitter]

I checked MLB Trade Rumor today and in the top stories column it lists articles John Lackey Rumors and Jon Lester Rumors. Is the MLB Trade Rumor site stuck in a time warp or should I update my iPad?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why would you give him up?

 

1. Because he's good right now, at a good salary, and could be traded for one or two guys who might be good for a lot longer... even a Trea Turner or Carlos Carrasco -- prospects acquired in trades (notice I didn't mention a Hall of Famer like Jeff Bagwell; nobody would be that dumb);

 

2. He took a really long time to recover from injury;

 

3. And now that he's older, other physical issues are already surfacing...

[notin]

"since he drafts almost only HS players", does that mean we're supposed to give Bloom a pass for the next 5, 6, 7 years waiting for them to develop? i'm thinking maybe he should be looking at some kids who are a bit closer to being ready.

 

Even if they’ve not as good?