A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[illinoisredsox]

Thing with Vaz was his calling game and arm. He was not good. Also, he was a blank check when people tried to steal 2nd.

 

I'll agree on game calling, not his strongpoint, and he never really improved at it, which is odd since Varitek had to be tutoring him the last couple years.

 

Steals are usually off the pitcher. Not saying Vaz was great, but he was nailing 30% of the runners. Hardly a blank check. The Major League average is 25%. By comparison, Plawecki is at 8%.

 

Bench, Rodriguez and Molina are not the norm.

[iortiz]

I'll agree on game calling, not his strongpoint, and he never really improved at it, which is odd since Varitek had to be tutoring him the last couple years.

 

Steals are usually off the pitcher. Not saying Vaz was great, but he was nailing 30% of the runners. Hardly a blank check. The Major League average is 25%. By comparison, Plawecki is at 8%.

 

Bench, Rodriguez and Molina are not the norm.

 

Fair enough, but Plawecki is definitely a blank check lol! I think the announcers said the other day he only had 2 put outs in a couple of dozens of tries —or so. He definitely has a chicken arm lol.

[moonslav59]

Does anyone steal bases, anymore?

[JDavis76]

Does anyone steal bases, anymore?

 

The Yanks are #2 in the AL in stolen bases with 70, while the soz are near the bottom with a paltry 39.....

[sk7326]

I'll agree on game calling, not his strongpoint, and he never really improved at it, which is odd since Varitek had to be tutoring him the last couple years.

 

Steals are usually off the pitcher. Not saying Vaz was great, but he was nailing 30% of the runners. Hardly a blank check. The Major League average is 25%. By comparison, Plawecki is at 8%.

 

Bench, Rodriguez and Molina are not the norm.

 

Maybe - but pitch calling still comes down to what the pitcher is comfortable throwing. I think that is still a bit opaque fans. It's also possible the pitchers are just not that good. The pitchers looked fine last season.

[Larry Cook]

I have seen stronger arms on a clock than plaweicki’s.

 

But I think he calls an outstanding game.

[Deja Doh]

Have any of you watched a Worcester game? There is not a lot there. Our minor leagues are in serious trouble. I watched a game against Buffalo recently, way overrated is how I would describe it.

[moonslav59]

Have any of you watched a Worcester game? There is not a lot there. Our minor leagues are in serious trouble. I watched a game against Buffalo recently, way overrated is how I would describe it.

 

Well, many of the Woo players are on the Sox, now. (Duran, Refsnyder, Wink, Crawford, Bello)

 

It does seem like our best prospects are the far away ones, but Mata and Ward are looking promising with their returns from the IL. Casas still has some hope.

 

I see less at Salem and Portland than Woo and GRE.

 

Wong and RHern might yield a solid back-up catcher or more.

[MADSTORK]

Since Moon has me on ignore JBJ out right released.

 

Im assuming he was bought out for 8 mill which was the 23 clause?

[MADSTORK]

Have any of you watched a Worcester game? There is not a lot there. Our minor leagues are in serious trouble. I watched a game against Buffalo recently, way overrated is how I would describe it.

 

Your best prospects are always in lower levels, AAA full of beer leaguers

Casas not included

 

Mayer looks as if he is the real deal, Yorke has struggled in high A but was injured, BJordan has been looking very good

All 3 attack the pitch aggressive hitters with power

 

Pitching is suspect? Plenty of low level arms but again I believe the ML development system needs an overhaul

 

I spoke with a Scout years ago for Angels I remember he said Boston’s AA Team was in a terrible location weather wise, just to damn cold April May early June for players to get acclimated

He was right. I spoke with former prospect Nick Longhi and he said the same thing when talking to his teammates who started the season up there

[mvp 78]

Since Moon has me on ignore JBJ out right released.

 

Im assuming he was bought out for 8 mill which was the 23 clause?

 

Yup.

 

I'm trying to think of a worse way to spend $20M and am drawing a blank at the moment.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup.

 

I'm trying to think of a worse way to spend $20M and am drawing a blank at the moment.

 

Great news, the Sox only had to pay 17.5 mill, and it only counted as 12 mill for tax purposes!

 

But seriously, one of those prospects better work out.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

C: Wong

1b: Hosmer

2b: Story

SS: C.Correa (free agent)

3b: Devers

LF: E.Valdez

CF: resign K.Hernandez to a one year deal

RF: T. Naquin (free agent)

DH: ???

 

Trade Duran, trade or non-tender Verdugo, obtain comp pick for Eavoldi, don't resign JD Martinez, get comp pick for Bogaerts.

[Nick]

C: Wong

1b: Hosmer

2b: Story

SS: C.Correa (free agent)

3b: Devers

LF: E.Valdez

CF: resign K.Hernandez to a one year deal

RF: T. Naquin (free agent)

DH: ???

 

Trade Duran, trade or non-tender Verdugo, obtain comp pick for Eavoldi, don't resign JD Martinez, get comp pick for Bogaerts.

 

My guess is Casas at 1B platooning with Dalbec. Hosmer will be the DH and play 1B from time to time.

I would seriously go after Aaron Judge. Why not?

[Old Red]

My guess is Casas at 1B platooning with Dalbec. Hosmer will be the DH and play 1B from time to time.

I would seriously go after Aaron Judge. Why not?

 

How much you willing to pay him, and Correa?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Yup.

 

I'm trying to think of a worse way to spend $20M and am drawing a blank at the moment.

 

C'mon, there's a few worse ways in recent history where the SOX have wasted 20 mil and more. Enough ways, in fact, for JH to now keep his money in his mattress.

Edited August 5, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

Yup.

 

I'm trying to think of a worse way to spend $20M and am drawing a blank at the moment.

 

Cody Bellinger?

 

Lately Chris Sale, who by year end will have been paid $78mill (including the pro-rated 2020) on his current contract and has delivered 48 IP…

Edited August 6, 2022 by notin

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Cody Bellinger?

 

Lately Chris Sale, who by year end will have been paid $78mill (including the pro-rated 2020) on his current contract and has delivered 48 IP…

 

I remember Price's contract with the SOX that would pay him 1 mil for every game he started. Looks like peanuts compared to Sale's 1.5 mil per inning.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

...

[moonslav59]

I remember Price's contract with the SOX that would pay him 1 mil for every game he started. Looks like peanuts compared to Sale's 1.5 mil per inning.

 

I think we paid Renteria $40M for one lame season.

 

We paid Rusney over $70M for squat.

 

CC was at least $100M of the $142M in the toilet.

 

Pablito $95M.

 

We paid Price for a couple good seasons and one good playoff season. Wow! $210M deal and then had to use Betts to help dump him. (Kinda like CC and AGon.)

[moonslav59]

So, after the deadline moves and JBJ DFA, a slightly better idea of what 2023 looks like is coming into view.

 

We will be adding some Rule 5 players and likely will make a trade or two to supplement several key FA signings, but this looks like the framework:

 

The 26

C: _____? McGuire, Wong or Hern

1B/DH: Hosmer

1B: Casas (trade?) or Dalbec

2B or SS: Story

SS or 2B: ____?

3B: Devers

LF: Pham, Duran

CF: _____?

RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder

Utility: Arroyo

 

SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski/Crawford

RP: Houck, Whitlock, _____? Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, Crawford or Winckowski

 

the rest of the 40:

RHern of Wong

Dalbec or Casas

Rafaela

Paulino

Duran

Bello

Mata

Seabold

Murphy

German

W Gonzalez

B Walter

 

Bubble/Trade/DFA

Downs

JDavis

Cordero

Sanchez

Danish

Sawamura

Barnes

Brasier

Ort

DHern

 

Bubble Rule 5:

Ward, Koss, Song, Cottam, Jimenez, Feltman

[a700hitter]

So, after the deadline moves and JBJ DFA, a slightly better idea of what 2023 looks like is coming into view.

 

We will be adding some Rule 5 players and likely will make a trade or two to supplement several key FA signings, but this looks like the framework:

 

The 26

C: _____? McGuire, Wong or Hern

1B/DH: Hosmer

1B: Casas (trade?) or Dalbec

2B or SS: Story

SS or 2B: ____?

3B: Devers

LF: Pham, Duran

CF: _____?

RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder

Utility: Arroyo

 

SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski/Crawford

RP: Houck, Whitlock, _____? Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, Crawford or Winckowski

 

the rest of the 40:

RHern of Wong

Dalbec or Casas

Rafaela

Paulino

Duran

Bello

Mata

Seabold

Murphy

German

W Gonzalez

B Walter

 

Bubble/Trade/DFA

Downs

JDavis

Cordero

Sanchez

Danish

Sawamura

Barnes

Brasier

Ort

DHern

 

Bubble Rule 5:

Ward, Koss, Song, Cottam, Jimenez, Feltman

And if Bloom doesn’t fill in those blanks with some good players, they will have another season like this one. He might not fill some of those blanks at all.

[oldtimer]

So, after the deadline moves and JBJ DFA, a slightly better idea of what 2023 looks like is coming into view.

 

We will be adding some Rule 5 players and likely will make a trade or two to supplement several key FA signings, but this looks like the framework:

 

The 26

C: _____? McGuire, Wong or Hern

1B/DH: Hosmer

1B: Casas (trade?) or Dalbec

2B or SS: Story

SS or 2B: ____?

3B: Devers

LF: Pham, Duran

CF: _____?

RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder

Utility: Arroyo

 

SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski/Crawford

RP: Houck, Whitlock, _____? Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, Crawford or Winckowski

 

the rest of the 40:

RHern of Wong

Dalbec or Casas

Rafaela

Paulino

Duran

Bello

Mata

Seabold

Murphy

German

W Gonzalez

B Walter

 

Bubble/Trade/DFA

Downs

JDavis

Cordero

Sanchez

Danish

Sawamura

Barnes

Brasier

Ort

DHern

 

Bubble Rule 5:

Ward, Koss, Song, Cottam, Jimenez, Feltman

 

I agree, now we need a front line catcher since we rid ourselves of Vazquez. Such a player will be difficult to find.

 

No way would I trade Casas. We haven't seen what he can do but he is a potential star. Dalbec at best is a journeyman and is expendable.

 

I don't think Bogey is out of play. Possible 2nd base/DH going forward. There is a high risk of losing him though so you are correct to be looking for a SS/2nd baseman.

 

I don't see anyone other than Verdugo as keepers in the OF (probably LF). Refsnyder could fill the utility OF role. I'd be looking outside for two FA OF's.

 

I agree on Hosmer, Devers, Story and Arroyo

 

For starting pitchers, Sale can't be looked on as more than a #2 starter, maybe less. Paxton is an unknown and may not fill a starter role in 2023 so we need at least one top line starter and possibly two. Bello appears to be the best internal option to make the jump.

 

I agree, we need at least one quality relief pitcher. Never can have enough quality arms.

 

I choose not to comment on the rest of the 40 man.

 

If we keep Bogey, we will need a front line catcher, two outfielders, a quality SP, and a quality RP. I don't see enough resources available to accomplish all of that so in my view, 2023 will only see us make a partial step to competitiveness. Bloom's winter meetings and trade deadline inertia makes me wonder if he can get the job done.

[moonslav59]

And if Bloom doesn’t fill in those blanks with some good players, they will have another season like this one. He might not fill some of those blanks at all.

 

This is where we'll see who the true Bloom is, unless Henry puts some serious brakes on spending, which I do NOT think is likely, after fans' outrage over 2022.

 

He should have about $90M to spend, at minimum and 5-7 or 8 key slots to fill. If that number is 6, that would be about $15M per player x 6. We ight see $25M x 2 and $6.5M x 4, but either way, there should and better be some serious talent coming into the fold.

 

While the roster framework I posted still has some salary deadwood and too many "bubble" type players, I think our foundation is solid enough to be able to put together a solid team in 2023 with an even better outlook for 2024 and beyond due to some exciting Rule 5 additions and lower level prospects moving up the line towards maturity.

 

Of the 10 listed bubble players, there might only be room for 2, so maybe we can deal some of them for prospects or maybe some sort of 3 for 1 deal. We may also see us make a move like Ottavino's, but hopefully, the ML component of that type of deal does better than he did. (German is looking like a keeper!)

 

Maybe we do a salary swap like Barnes and Sawamura for Myers.

 

There should be enough opportunities for Bloom to "do his thing," and to me 2023 will be the flashpoint for Bloom and maybe even Cora, depending on pre-season expectations based on roster strength.

[Bellhorn04]

There should be enough opportunities for Bloom to "do his thing," and to me 2023 will be the flashpoint for Bloom and maybe even Cora, depending on pre-season expectations based on roster strength.

 

"Flashpoint" - excellent word. That might be the theme for next year. Flashpoint '23!

[moonslav59]

I agree, now we need a front line catcher since we rid ourselves of Vazquez. Such a player will be difficult to find.

 

No way would I trade Casas. We haven't seen what he can do but he is a potential star. Dalbec at best is a journeyman and is expendable.

 

I don't think Bogey is out of play. Possible 2nd base/DH going forward. There is a high risk of losing him though so you are correct to be looking for a SS/2nd baseman.

 

I don't see anyone other than Verdugo as keepers in the OF (probably LF). Refsnyder could fill the utility OF role. I'd be looking outside for two FA OF's.

 

I agree on Hosmer, Devers, Story and Arroyo

 

For starting pitchers, Sale can't be looked on as more than a #2 starter, maybe less. Paxton is an unknown and may not fill a starter role in 2023 so we need at least one top line starter and possibly two. Bello appears to be the best internal option to make the jump.

 

I agree, we need at least one quality relief pitcher. Never can have enough quality arms.

 

I choose not to comment on the rest of the 40 man.

 

If we keep Bogey, we will need a front line catcher, two outfielders, a quality SP, and a quality RP. I don't see enough resources available to accomplish all of that so in my view, 2023 will only see us make a partial step to competitiveness. Bloom's winter meetings and trade deadline inertia makes me wonder if he can get the job done.

 

To me, if we choose to spend the $90M on 4 slots and not the 5 I listed- removing a catcher from the list, we might still have a solid team. McGuire, Wong and RHern handle the staff and catching duties, and now we have $90M+ to spend on 4 slots. That's $22.5M a slot as opposed to $$18M per slot ($90M/5) or $15M ($90M/6).

 

Maybe we trade for one of those 4 slots and now have close to $90M to fill 3 slots. Now we are talking about being able to make a serious run at 2 or 3 of these guys (not likely):

 

Judge

 

Trea Turner/Correa/Swanson/Bogey

 

Rodon/Verlander (short term)/Kershaw (short term)/de Grom

 

Haniger/Nimmo

 

Contreras

 

We might go with 1-2 large and long plus 2-3 next tier guys like...

 

Nate/Syndergaard/Bassitt/Morton (short term)

Abreu (shorter term)

Muncy/KWong

TAnderson

Kike/Brantley

Cruz/JD

Diaz/Chapman/Jansen

 

[notin]

So, after the deadline moves and JBJ DFA, a slightly better idea of what 2023 looks like is coming into view.

 

We will be adding some Rule 5 players and likely will make a trade or two to supplement several key FA signings, but this looks like the framework:

 

The 26

C: _____? McGuire, Wong or Hern

1B/DH: Hosmer

1B: Casas (trade?) or Dalbec

2B or SS: Story

SS or 2B: ____?

3B: Devers

LF: Pham, Duran

CF: _____?

RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder

Utility: Arroyo

 

SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski/Crawford

RP: Houck, Whitlock, _____? Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, Crawford or Winckowski

 

the rest of the 40:

RHern of Wong

Dalbec or Casas

Rafaela

Paulino

Duran

Bello

Mata

Seabold

Murphy

German

W Gonzalez

B Walter

 

Bubble/Trade/DFA

Downs

JDavis

Cordero

Sanchez

Danish

Sawamura

Barnes

Brasier

Ort

DHern

 

Bubble Rule 5:

Ward, Koss, Song, Cottam, Jimenez, Feltman

 

Leave catcher.

 

Extend Bogaerts, Devers.

 

Make a run at Ramon Laureano for CF. (BTV accepted Yorke and Duran, but would Forst?)

 

Rotation should be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski, and either Whitlock or Crawford. (I’m on the Crawford Train)

 

Bullpen starts with Houck, Whitlock/Crawford, Schreiber, German, and still has Barnes and Brasier. A couple arms to push Barnes and Brasier further down on the depth chart would be cool.

[Bellhorn04]

Leave catcher.

 

Extend Bogaerts, Devers.

 

Make a run at Ramon Laureano for CF. (BTV accepted Yorke and Duran, but would Forst?)

 

Rotation should be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski, and either Whitlock or Crawford. (I’m on the Crawford Train)

 

Bullpen starts with Houck, Whitlock/Crawford, Schreiber, German, and still has Barnes and Brasier. A couple arms to push Barnes and Brasier further down on the depth chart would be cool.

 

As I've said, Brasier has more lives than a cat. He'll probably be on the 2027 Red Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

Yup.

 

I'm trying to think of a worse way to spend $20M and am drawing a blank at the moment.

 

This year the Sox are paying Sale, Price, and Eovaldi a total of $63M, and their contribution to this year's team is a combined WAR of +0.9.

 

I think losing Renfroe and getting JBJ was a mistake, but that paying Sale, Price, and Eovaldi $63M is hurting much more.

[Maxbialystock]

Leave catcher.

 

Extend Bogaerts, Devers.

 

Make a run at Ramon Laureano for CF. (BTV accepted Yorke and Duran, but would Forst?)

 

Rotation should be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski, and either Whitlock or Crawford. (I’m on the Crawford Train)

 

Bullpen starts with Houck, Whitlock/Crawford, Schreiber, German, and still has Barnes and Brasier. A couple arms to push Barnes and Brasier further down on the depth chart would be cool.

 

Am I wrong in thinking Bogey wants $250M and Devers $500M? If so, they are a further example of why Mookie went to the Dodgers. His WAR right now is +4.1. Devers is +4.2, 11th best. Bogey's is +3.7, 21st best. Juan Soto's is +4.1, and he just turned down $440M from the Nationals.