A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Am I wrong in thinking Bogey wants $250M and Devers $500M? If so, they are a further example of why Mookie went to the Dodgers. His WAR right now is +4.1. Devers is +4.2, 11th best. Bogey's is +3.7, 21st best. Juan Soto's is +4.1, and he just turned down $440M from the Nationals.

 

Soto turning down $440 mill sends shudders all through me.

[moonslav59]

Leave catcher.

 

Extend Bogaerts, Devers.

 

Make a run at Ramon Laureano for CF. (BTV accepted Yorke and Duran, but would Forst?)

 

Rotation should be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski, and either Whitlock or Crawford. (I’m on the Crawford Train)

 

Bullpen starts with Houck, Whitlock/Crawford, Schreiber, German, and still has Barnes and Brasier. A couple arms to push Barnes and Brasier further down on the depth chart would be cool.

 

I like it, and we still have plenty of cash to sign a big plus 2B/SS and SP'er.

[moonslav59]

As I've said, Brasier has more lives than a cat. He'll probably be on the 2027 Red Sox.

 

Amazingly, he still has an option left- not sure if he will in 2023, though.

 

I have several players on my DFA/trade list ahead of him, but if he goes, I won't be even mildly surprised.

[dgalehouse]

We have here a few ardent Bloom supporters who will continue to back him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Everyone else is fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not Chaim Bloom. I do not think most of Red Sox Nation falls into that category. They just want to see results and some good baseball. They are not seeing that and they are not happy about it. Bloom is the man in charge . This is his third year. It is perfectly fair to hold him accountable.

[moonslav59]

Soto turning down $440 mill sends shudders all through me.

 

Let's see what he actually makes.

 

I'm not sure overpaying him will reset the whole top tier market.

 

Did Seager's massive overpay really create a big boost to other top players' contracts?

[notin]

Am I wrong in thinking Bogey wants $250M and Devers $500M? If so, they are a further example of why Mookie went to the Dodgers. His WAR right now is +4.1. Devers is +4.2, 11th best. Bogey's is +3.7, 21st best. Juan Soto's is +4.1, and he just turned down $440M from the Nationals.

 

I’m sure both want that kind of cash. But both have agents telling them “ not happening, dude.”

 

Soto is 23 years old (24 in October) and despite this one year has already established himself among the best hitters in MLB despite being only one year older than the top overall pick in last year’s draft. By the time he is 27, he very well might make Mike Trout look like Tim Salmon.

 

Bogaerts is 30 and probably looking may a deal close to the 7 year $175 of Marcus Semien last year. I put Bogaerts at 6/$150, I might be light.

 

Devers was offered something similar to the deal Matt Olson got from Atlanta (8 yrs $168mill) and commented the Sox were “about $100 mill off.” Since I doubt he wanted $68mill, let’s put him at $270mill for 9 years.

[Maxbialystock]

And if Bloom doesn’t fill in those blanks with some good players, they will have another season like this one. He might not fill some of those blanks at all.

 

Let me say again that I have zero GM credentials.

 

Nevertheless, I must point out that "another season like this one" ignores all the injuries we have seen: Sale, Wacha, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Hill, Kike, Story, et al. Despite those injuries and the grim reality that this year's team ERA is 14th in the AL and worst in the John Henry era, the Sox are at .500 and 3.5 games out of a wild card. And don't forget that the AL East teams have 57 more wins than losses and the Sox play 19 x 4 = 76 games against the other four.

 

I am not saying this is a good season. Like everyone else, I'm appalled at the defense, baserunning, bullpen lapses, weak hitting with RISP, etc. In fact, I would definitely like to see some new faces.

 

Meanwhile, however, there is the dilemma of whether or not to retain Bogey and Devers, either of whom and definitely both of whom would be prohibitively expensive.

[notin]

I like it, and we still have plenty of cash to sign a big plus 2B/SS and SP'er.

 

If Bogaerts can’t/won’t be extended, Enmanuel Valdez is off to a hit start in Worcester pushing for 2b. The FA OF class is weak (and won’t containJudge, especially if he breaks Maris’ still-standing AL home run record), but there’s always some arb eligibles that teams want to move.

 

I mentioned Laureano already. Cody Bellinger is a non tender candidate. Bryan Reynolds is one that should grab lots of attention…

[dgalehouse]

My opinion of Alex Cora is that he is a good manager . Not the best manager , but a good one. I think he is kind of caught in the middle of the rancor between Sox management and the players , fans and media. He is doing his best to keep things calm and try to win with what he has been given. I would not like to see him leave.

[a700hitter]

Let me say again that I have zero GM credentials.

 

Nevertheless, I must point out that "another season like this one" ignores all the injuries we have seen: Sale, Wacha, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Hill, Kike, Story, et al. Despite those injuries and the grim reality that this year's team ERA is 14th in the AL and worst in the John Henry era, the Sox are at .500 and 3.5 games out of a wild card. And don't forget that the AL East teams have 57 more wins than losses and the Sox play 19 x 4 = 76 games against the other four.

 

I am not saying this is a good season. Like everyone else, I'm appalled at the defense, baserunning, bullpen lapses, weak hitting with RISP, etc. In fact, I would definitely like to see some new faces.

 

Meanwhile, however, there is the dilemma of whether or not to retain Bogey and Devers, either of whom and definitely both of whom would be prohibitively expensive.

If they are prohibitively expensive, how could any team other than the Yankees or Dodgers afford them? The Red Sox are not Kansas City or the Marlins or Tampa.

[Bellhorn04]

We have here a few ardent Bloom supporters who will continue to back him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Everyone else is fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not Chaim Bloom. I do not think most of Red Sox Nation falls into that category. They just want to see results and some good baseball. They are not seeing that and they are not happy about it. Bloom is the man in charge . This is his third year. It is perfectly fair to hold him accountable.

 

Yes, he has a few supporters and an army of detractors. And for some reason you really like to go after the supporters. As if you want everyone to be the same.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, he has a few supporters and an army of detractors. And for some reason you really like to go after the supporters. As if you want everyone to be the same.

 

Well , That's how it is . I am one of the detractors. I can see no good reason to support him.

[Bellhorn04]

Well , That's how it is . I am one of the detractors. I can see no good reason to support him.

 

Fine. I just don't get the constant need to attack the little pocket of supporters.

[moonslav59]

We have here a few ardent Bloom supporters who will continue to back him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Everyone else is fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not Chaim Bloom. I do not think most of Red Sox Nation falls into that category. They just want to see results and some good baseball. They are not seeing that and they are not happy about it. Bloom is the man in charge . This is his third year. It is perfectly fair to hold him accountable.

 

I don't see a single poster giving Bloom a free pass on everything or even almost everything. I do see posters trying to give context to why certain moves were made and why the moves might have been understandable, at the time they were made, just like I try to defend DD's Sale extension at the time it was made but how it sucks, now.

 

I also see a fw ardent Bloom bashers who will continue to bash him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Every poster who attempts to soften the blows thrown at Bloom are fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not the team leaders and clubhouse wonders.

 

They never mention any of his many good moves, and make it sound like everything he touches turns to doo-doo. Many assume he is choosing to not spend big and wants to run the team like the Rays.

 

Personally, I think 2021 raised fans expectations beyond reason. The 2022 team and farm are vastly better than the one handed Bloom. The DD budget is going to be greatly reduced, this winter, and Bloom should be judged on the teams progression from the end of 2019 to now and the end of this winter's moves and decisions.

 

I'm fine with people holding Bloom accountable. I don't think it's a black and white as many seem to think it is, but that's the way of the world, these days. Little nuances and context is present.

 

Bloom should be held accountable for all his choices.

 

He's made plenty of bad choices. Some look god-awful right now, but some of those still have time to be righted or at least partially improved upon.

 

The Beni trade is already looking better than it did at first. His team control is over after this season. We replaced his salary with renfroe, last year, and that alone just about evened up the score. Now Wink is tilting the trade to a net plus, and we still have more to see from him and the other 3 far-away prospects.

 

The Pivetta-Seabold deal was golden.

 

The JBJ trade looks like a total bust, and it hurt the finances, but Binelas and hamilton do still show faint promise, so maybe we need another year or two to know just how bad the deal was.

 

Many of Bloom's mid-level signings ranged from meh to bad, but what is really expected of most $3M to $10M signings? 50-50 success rate?

 

Paxton

Richards

(Barnes extension)

(Ottavino/German salary dump trade)

(JBJ-Renfroe trade)

Kike

M Perez I and M Perez II

Wacha

Hill

Diekman

Strahm

Renfroe

Pillar

Marwin

Peraza

Sawamura

Moreland

Andriese

 

One can easily argue these deals show less than 50% success, so bash away on these, but don't forget Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and a few other under-the-radar moves than probably balance those out or maybe even go plus side.

 

Are we better off now than the end of 2019 and start of 2020?

 

I'd say clearly much better on the 26, the 40, the farm and the finances. Call me a "prolific" poster who supports Bloom, but I am not one who never criticizes Bloom. It seems to me, there are more Bloom bashers who rarely mention the good than Bloom supporters who rarely mention the bad. That's my perception, anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's see what he actually makes.

 

I'm not sure overpaying him will reset the whole top tier market.

 

Did Seager's massive overpay really create a big boost to other top players' contracts?

 

I think it all adds to the inflationary trend.

[moonslav59]

If they are prohibitively expensive, how could any team other than the Yankees or Dodgers afford them? The Red Sox are not Kansas City or the Marlins or Tampa.

 

They aren't but after 2019, they cut salary like KC and MIA.

 

After 2020, Bloom was handed $40M, which seems like much more than KC and MIA but he had 10-14 slots to fill.

 

That's not what NYY and LAD ever face.

[moonslav59]

Fine. I just don't get the constant need to attack the little pocket of supporters.

 

Plus, name one "supporter" who blindly supports every move Bloom has made.

 

I think some bashers confuse trying to justify why Bloom made a particular move or that the financial restrictions add context to why Bloom chose a $5M guy over a $15M guy means we think the move was a success. It doesn't.

 

I rarely see the bashers trying to add any context. I rarely see them mention Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Schwarber, Iggy, Wacha, Starhm and a few others who have already earner their pay and then some along with the failed moves. It seems to be all one-way, and when we try to soften the bashing, we are accused of being total Bloom apologists.

 

I'm still asking for one name of a poster who has supported all or even 90% of Bloom's moves, and remember, offering context to what a bad move was made is not supporting the move,

[notin]

We have here a few ardent Bloom supporters who will continue to back him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Everyone else is fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not Chaim Bloom. I do not think most of Red Sox Nation falls into that category. They just want to see results and some good baseball. They are not seeing that and they are not happy about it. Bloom is the man in charge . This is his third year. It is perfectly fair to hold him accountable.

 

 

Can somebody give Denny a push? He seems to be stuck.

 

(For you millennials and younger, this is a reference to how records - the forerunners of the mp4 - could get stuck in a groove and play the same thing over and over and over)

[cp176]

Fine. I just don't get the constant need to attack the little pocket of supporters.

 

hmm Bell - How do you think I feel being a supporter of Dombrowskis? He has been blamed for so much by so many here in what I consider a weak attempt to support Bloom. We clearly have people who liked the wins but didn't appreciate the cost. I get that but constantly and I do mean constantly bringing his name up now that he is no longer with us in an attempt to support Bloom seems really a sad way to support IMO. Time to move on. I would be willing to show more support for Bloom if I actually liked and I mean really liked his moves and if he a recognizable plan going forward. As things stand currently, I can't watch them. It has to be extremely tough for the remaining winning veterans that we have. Some of them can't get out soon enough and I don't blame them.

[vegasbob]

Can somebody give Denny a push? He seems to be stuck.

 

(For you millennials and younger, this is a reference to how records - the forerunners of the mp4 - could get stuck in a groove and play the same thing over and over and over)

 

Didn't the thing turning have a rewind button?

[Bellhorn04]

hmm Bell - How do you think I feel being a supporter of Dombrowskis?

 

I know what you're saying, but the attacks are against DD, not you.

 

dgalehouse keeps going after anyone who supports Bloom.

[cp176]

I know what you're saying, but the attacks are against DD, not you.

 

dgalehouse keeps going after anyone who supports Bloom.

 

To be honest with you I think that it is pretty close to bing the same thing. I'm not perfect but it takes more than a discussion here to send me into attack mode. Pretty sure that I wouldn't have to say much before I would be a target as well. I think that you know for sure how I feel about Henry's budget so to speak. All i want for the Red Sox are good players and for a few years now some here have tried to educate me with what they think they know about his budget. Which quite likely is very little. Thankfully I guess that I am uneducable . lol

[dgalehouse]

I know what you're saying, but the attacks are against DD, not you.

 

dgalehouse keeps going after anyone who supports Bloom.

 

I just find it incredulous that a few folks on here are so loyal to Bloom. The product we are watching does not justify it. And I dare say that is the prevailing mood among Sox fans. I am not going after anyone personally. In fact , there are comments directed toward me that I might find insulting if I was the sensitive type. But I'm not.

[dgalehouse]

Can somebody give Denny a push? He seems to be stuck.

 

(For you millennials and younger, this is a reference to how records - the forerunners of the mp4 - could get stuck in a groove and play the same thing over and over and over)

 

Vinyl is popular again. Old school. Retro is cool.

[Larry Cook]

Vinyl is popular again. Old school. Retro is cool.

 

In a cd or other digital recordings, sometimes the computer has to “fill in” sound with it’s best guess.

 

With vinyl, you hear the song exactly as it was recorded. It’s why vinyl will always be the superior choice!

 

When I listen to the beginning of Saxon’s crusader on vinyl and cd, i can really notice the difference.

[Nick]

I know what you're saying, but the attacks are against DD, not you.

 

dgalehouse keeps going after anyone who supports Bloom.

 

I support Bloom but I don't think firing him will solve anything. He's done a good job in balance.

 

He's made some horrible mistakes for sure.

 

I just never understood the JBJ deal. I don't care how good the prospects turn out but I thought the deal was a big money drain on the team when you consider we're trying to scrape up some dollars to sign some good players. When I saw what JBJ was doing in Milwaukee last year, I thank God he was gone. Then Bloom brings him back. WTF?

 

JD's season is turning out the way I thought it might. That's why I was hoping to see Schwarber back. One year overlap. He could have helped us and taken over the DH role for three years. WE NEED POWER BATS. Xander is no longer capable of hitting 30 homers.

 

I don't see this year's 'last place team' same as the three last place teams DD inherited. How quickly we forget that we were up 2-1 on the Astros last year.

 

I've enjoyed watching 4 of our farmhands start this year. I believe they all possess major league potential.

 

Signing Xander to a 6 year, $200M is not a BOLD move. BOLD move would be to go after Aaron Judge.

 

Also give Bloom credit for Hosmer deal. Financial side of it is unreal.

[notin]

hmm Bell - How do you think I feel being a supporter of Dombrowskis? He has been blamed for so much by so many here in what I consider a weak attempt to support Bloom. We clearly have people who liked the wins but didn't appreciate the cost. I get that but constantly and I do mean constantly bringing his name up now that he is no longer with us in an attempt to support Bloom seems really a sad way to support IMO. Time to move on. I would be willing to show more support for Bloom if I actually liked and I mean really liked his moves and if he a recognizable plan going forward. As things stand currently, I can't watch them. It has to be extremely tough for the remaining winning veterans that we have. Some of them can't get out soon enough and I don't blame them.

 

 

The difference is those who are not fans of Dombrowski criticize Dombrowski.

 

Whereas dgalehouse is not a fan of Bloom and criticizes people who like Bloom.

 

In fact, most Bloom supporters criticize Bloom more than he does…

[notin]

I support Bloom but I don't think firing him will solve anything. He's done a good job in balance.

 

He's made some horrible mistakes for sure.

 

I just never understood the JBJ deal. I don't care how good the prospects turn out but I thought the deal was a big money drain on the team when you consider we're trying to scrape up some dollars to sign some good players. When I saw what JBJ was doing in Milwaukee last year, I thank God he was gone. Then Bloom brings him back. WTF?

 

JD's season is turning out the way I thought it might. That's why I was hoping to see Schwarber back. One year overlap. He could have helped us and taken over the DH role for three years. WE NEED POWER BATS. Xander is no longer capable of hitting 30 homers.

 

I don't see this year's 'last place team' same as the three last place teams DD inherited. How quickly we forget that we were up 2-1 on the Astros last year.

 

I've enjoyed watching 4 of our farmhands start this year. I believe they all possess major league potential.

 

Signing Xander to a 6 year, $200M is not a BOLD move. BOLD move would be to go after Aaron Judge.

 

Also give Bloom credit for Hosmer deal. Financial side of it is unreal.

 

The financial side of the Hosmer trade was outstanding. From that viewpoint I don’t get why San Diego didn’t just keep him.

 

From a baseball standpoint, I’m far from thrilled. I hope Hosmer does well but I full expect a .700-.750 OPS each season going forward…

[oldtimer]

To me, if we choose to spend the $90M on 4 slots and not the 5 I listed- removing a catcher from the list, we might still have a solid team. McGuire, Wong and RHern handle the staff and catching duties, and now we have $90M+ to spend on 4 slots. That's $22.5M a slot as opposed to $$18M per slot ($90M/5) or $15M ($90M/6).

 

Maybe we trade for one of those 4 slots and now have close to $90M to fill 3 slots. Now we are talking about being able to make a serious run at 2 or 3 of these guys (not likely):

 

Judge

 

Trea Turner/Correa/Swanson/Bogey

 

Rodon/Verlander (short term)/Kershaw (short term)/de Grom

 

Haniger/Nimmo

 

Contreras

 

We might go with 1-2 large and long plus 2-3 next tier guys like...

 

Nate/Syndergaard/Bassitt/Morton (short term)

Abreu (shorter term)

Muncy/KWong

TAnderson

Kike/Brantley

Cruz/JD

Diaz/Chapman/Jansen

 

 

It will be interesting. We want to be stronger going into the 2023 season. Let's hope that Bloom makes moves during the Winter meetings. So far he treaded water in the opportunities he had. We need to have better defensive players up the middle. The guys you speak of could add an offensive presence to the defensive quality.

[moonslav59]

I just find it incredulous that a few folks on here are so loyal to Bloom. The product we are watching does not justify it. And I dare say that is the prevailing mood among Sox fans. I am not going after anyone personally. In fact , there are comments directed toward me that I might find insulting if I was the sensitive type. But I'm not.

 

Can you explain what "so loyal to Bloom" means?

 

Is being critical of several of his moves while providing context and nuance being loyal or overly loyal?

 

Is pointing out that many of the moves he's most being criticized for are not complete, yet, as the prospects are still prospects being overly loyal for your tastes?

 

Is looking beyond how good we look, at this very moment in time, being overly loyal or maybe just having a different viewpoint?

 

Had one judged Bloom when we had the 3rd best record in the AL, a couple months ago, we'd have a totally different judgement. Is recognizing making judgments based on a single point in time a sign of extreme and unworthy loyalty or just a different way of viewing situations?

 

I'm not sure your claim that our positions are based on "loyalty" are all that accurate. I wasn't "loyal" to DD, but I'm glad as hell Henry hired him. He did a fantastic job bringing us 3 first place finishes and the best season in Sox history. Nothing anyone says will take anything away from that, but it did come at an expected cost. I was happy paying that cost and that cost was to sacrifice some of our future success to go all in. I have no regrets, but I also feel like the next GM deserves some slack and time to build the team, farm and system back up to a highly competitive level. The 2021 season got me hopeful it could be done faster than I expected it to take back in 2020, but it doesn't change the fact we had a long way to go to get b ack to or near the top.

 

If that makes me an extreme loyalist or apologist in the eyes of some or even many, so be it. I think I'm just being a realist. (Not that those who disagree with me are not realistic, as well.)