A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I think they bring Kiké back.

 

Or add Nimmo?

[moonslav59]

To revisit the 2023 budget framework:

 

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now

 

SP

25.6 Sale

8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)

.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)

.72 Crawford (pre Arb)

.72 Mata (pre Arb)

.72 Bello (pre Arb)

minor Seabold (pre Arb)

minor Groome (pre Arb)

 

RP

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)

1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining)

.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)

.73 Houck (pre Arb)

.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)

.72 Danish (pre Arb)

minor P Valdez (pre Arb)

minor K Ort (pre Arb)

 

C

~1 McGuire (Arb 1 or 3)

.72 Wong (pre Arb)

.72 R Hernandez (pre Arb)

 

1B

.73 Hosmer (Padres paying all but min salary)

~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)

.73 Dalbec (pre Arb)

 

2B

23.3 Story

1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

 

3B

~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

 

SS

.72 Downs (pre Arb)

 

LF

~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

 

CF

.72 Duran (pre Arb)

 

RF

~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)

 

 

That's about $119M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $137M before spending a dime on additions or options (Pham $6M/ Sawamura $3M).

 

To get to the threshold, we could spend $95M.

 

For those who want us to extend or re-sign Bogey and Devers, here's how that might look, minimum:

 

$26 x 5 Bogey

$29 x 7 Devers (add $4M to projected arb cost)

 

That's $55M, but I had Devers at $25M arb, so add $30M.

 

If it's true we are re-setting after this season, then that leaves about $65M to fill all the rest of the slots not filled by in system players.

 

Let's play best case scenario and figure Casas can play 1B, next year, and one young starter can take Hill's 5 starter slot. We need to fill the 1/2 slot (Nate) and the 2/3 slot (Wacha), unless you think our 5 man rotation will be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski and Crawford/Bello/Mata (or Whitlock). We also need a catcher and CF and RF, unless you want to go all year with Wong/RHern at catcher, or Refsnyder/Duran in RF and CF FT. And, who DH'es? Dalbec/Cordero? LOL!!!

 

$60M to fill...

 

SP

SP

CF

RF

DH

RP

 

(I hope I got my math right, this time.)

[Larry Cook]

NDSE your scenario, I think we would need two right handed bats to help balance your lineup.

[FredLynn]

Not all the Red Sox fan base are quitters like you, and 2022 should be the top priority as long as they are still in the playoff hunt.with Bloom’s track record I don’t know why you are so excited about 2023, and beyond. Not many GM types would trade their starting catcher in a playoff race for a backup, who his teammates, and the pitching staff liked, and respected. Bogey, and the rest Will try to win despite Bloom, and JH. I don’t think Bogey is a quitter like you are.Go Sox!

 

Dude, we are in LAST PLACE! We are even behind the Orioles! We haven’t won a series against the ALE and it’s AUGUST! Wake up and smell the roses. This team is going nowhere. I don’t care what Bogaerts wants. He is leaving after the season anyway. Sure, the players will try to win at times. At other times they will play like “what’s the use”. They know they are going nowhere and so does management. I thought letting Vasquez go was a smart move because we got two prospects back and if we really want him on the team he will be available as a FA after this season. Bloom isn’t operating for this year. Maybe not for next year either. He is also under orders from Henry to get the budget down to $108m.

We might be relevant in 2-3 years but certainly not this year-and wishing it were so doesn’t make it real.

[moonslav59]

Dude, we are in LAST PLACE! We are even behind the Orioles! We haven’t won a series against the ALE and it’s AUGUST! Wake up and smell the roses. This team is going nowhere. I don’t care what Bogaerts wants. He is leaving after the season anyway. Sure, the players will try to win at times. At other times they will play like “what’s the use”. They know they are going nowhere and so does management. I thought letting Vasquez go was a smart move because we got two prospects back and if we really want him on the team he will be available as a FA after this season. Bloom isn’t operating for this year. Maybe not for next year either. He is also under orders from Henry to get the budget down to $108m.

We might be relevant in 2-3 years but certainly not this year-and wishing it were so doesn’t make it real.

 

It seems funny to me, that some of the guys bashing almost everything about Cora, Bloom and the roster construction, were the same ones that seems to think we were just a couple trades away from a ring.

 

Did they expect Bloom would make some great trades after he has sucked in every trade up to now, according to them?

 

Did they think Bloom had constructed a roster just 2-3 key pieces away from maybe winning a ring?

 

It seems like Jekyll and Hide, to me.

 

The vibe I got from this team convinced me we were toast. The slim hope has never been extinguished, and I can understand the position that we "owe this team." especially guys like Bogey, JD and Nate some significant additions to get us closer to a chance at glory, but to me the odds were too low to justify sacrificing future odds for the here and now.

 

I guess today's society is high on instant gratification, and the thought of sacrifice is not viewed as a virtue, anymore, but baseball is a business, and keeping the fans' perception's high is part of what brings the cash in.

 

I think Bloom tried to walk the tightrope by not hurting the future by anything more than losing Groome, but he added 2 more years of control at catcher, an option on a RH'd hitting OF'er and a few prospects that seem to be on the rise, this season. Kinda "meh," to me, but I'm clearly in the minority of most Sox fans.

[Old Red]

it seems funny to me, that some of the guys bashing almost everything about cora, bloom and the roster construction, were the same ones that seems to think we were just a couple trades away from a ring.

 

Did they expect bloom would make some great trades after he has sucked in every trade up to now, according to them?

 

Did they think bloom had constructed a roster just 2-3 key pieces away from maybe winning a ring?

 

It seems like jekyll and hide, to me.

 

The vibe i got from this team convinced me we were toast. The slim hope has never been extinguished, and i can understand the position that we "owe this team." especially guys like bogey, jd and nate some significant additions to get us closer to a chance at glory, but to me the odds were too low to justify sacrificing future odds for the here and now.

 

I guess today's society is high on instant gratification, and the thought of sacrifice is not viewed as a virtue, anymore, but baseball is a business, and keeping the fans' perception's high is part of what brings the cash in.

 

I think bloom tried to walk the tightrope by not hurting the future by anything more than losing groome, but he added 2 more years of control at catcher, an option on a rh'd hitting of'er and a few prospects that seem to be on the rise, this season. Kinda "meh," to me, but i'm clearly in the minority of most sox fans.

 

moonslop 101.

[Old Red]

Dude, we are in LAST PLACE! We are even behind the Orioles! We haven’t won a series against the ALE and it’s AUGUST! Wake up and smell the roses. This team is going nowhere. I don’t care what Bogaerts wants. He is leaving after the season anyway. Sure, the players will try to win at times. At other times they will play like “what’s the use”. They know they are going nowhere and so does management. I thought letting Vasquez go was a smart move because we got two prospects back and if we really want him on the team he will be available as a FA after this season. Bloom isn’t operating for this year. Maybe not for next year either. He is also under orders from Henry to get the budget down to $108m.

We might be relevant in 2-3 years but certainly not this year-and wishing it were so doesn’t make it real.

 

Wow! I’ll admit that is one way to look at things.

[notin]

Dude, we are in LAST PLACE! We are even behind the Orioles! We haven’t won a series against the ALE and it’s AUGUST! Wake up and smell the roses. This team is going nowhere. I don’t care what Bogaerts wants. He is leaving after the season anyway. Sure, the players will try to win at times. At other times they will play like “what’s the use”. They know they are going nowhere and so does management. I thought letting Vasquez go was a smart move because we got two prospects back and if we really want him on the team he will be available as a FA after this season. Bloom isn’t operating for this year. Maybe not for next year either. He is also under orders from Henry to get the budget down to $108m.

We might be relevant in 2-3 years but certainly not this year-and wishing it were so doesn’t make it real.

 

Going out on a rather sturdy limb, but I’m saying that is 100% not true…

[moonslav59]

So, is this the 2023 foundation Bloom has to work with?

 

SP: Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski, Crwford/Bello/Seabold/Mata

RP: Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, German/Barnes/Brasier/Sawamura/Danish

 

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern

1B/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Downs

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Pham, Cordero (Verdugo/Duran)

CF: Duran

RF: Verdugo, Refsnyder

 

I'd have to list our top priority open slots as:

 

SS/2B (whichever Story does not play)

CF

SP

C

1B/RF/DH

RP

SP

 

 

[vjcsmoke]

Dude, we are in LAST PLACE! We are even behind the Orioles! We haven’t won a series against the ALE and it’s AUGUST! Wake up and smell the roses. This team is going nowhere. I don’t care what Bogaerts wants. He is leaving after the season anyway. Sure, the players will try to win at times. At other times they will play like “what’s the use”. They know they are going nowhere and so does management. I thought letting Vasquez go was a smart move because we got two prospects back and if we really want him on the team he will be available as a FA after this season. Bloom isn’t operating for this year. Maybe not for next year either. He is also under orders from Henry to get the budget down to $108m.

 

Nobody can dispute that the Red Sox are in last place now. This is a situation of Bloom's own inept creation.

 

My question for you - what report indicated the 'owner mandate' that Bloom reduce payroll to 108m? Because I've heard no such report. And if that mandate is actually true, paying Story 140m over 6 years makes even less sense now.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody can dispute that the Red Sox are in last place now. This is a situation of Bloom's own inept creation.

 

My question for you - what report indicated the 'owner mandate' that Bloom reduce payroll to 108m? Because I've heard no such report. And if that mandate is actually true, paying Story 140m over 6 years makes even less sense now.

 

There's no such thing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

I'd have to list our top priority open slots as:

 

SS/2B (whichever Story does not play)

CF

SP

C

1B/RF/DH

RP

SP

 

 

 

Vazquez was maybe overrated as a receiver the past few years (though a rare catcher who could hit). However, disruptions and ambivalence in the clubhouse over trading such a valued comrade in what is supposed to be a playoff push can be underrated.

 

It's still arguable the Red Sox are better with three new big leaguers, even if Bloom had no intention of adding an MLB first baseman until the Padres basically paid him to take one. A wild card is a longshot but not impossible... though old (and new) pitching has to get and stay healthy -- btw. Bello looked good vs. Houston yesterday.

 

For '23, a middle infield star is not a top priority, even if X is Xed off; a glove guy like IKF is more important at SS for a contender. The big market Red Sox should be able to find a big bat or two for the outfield, to replace the lost production of Kike and JD from this summer and Schwarber/Renfroe from last winter. And while every team can use a star catcher to build around, Bloom isn't going to deal Mayer, Casas and Bello for Sean Murphy. After the Barnes' burn, he also isn't going to invest in any established relievers, so the other priority -- where it always comes back to: young, healthy, upside starting pitching.

 

For a CBO who doesn't run a true big market club that is going for it in NY, LA or SD, finding at least one good outfielder who can hit and catch, and at least one good starting pitcher, is a worthy goal.

[moonslav59]

Nobody can dispute that the Red Sox are in last place now. This is a situation of Bloom's own inept creation.

 

My question for you - what report indicated the 'owner mandate' that Bloom reduce payroll to 108m? Because I've heard no such report. And if that mandate is actually true, paying Story 140m over 6 years makes even less sense now.

 

I can’t find anything either, Evan at $208.

[Bellhorn04]

I can’t find anything either, Evan at $208.

 

It wasn't even worth looking up.

[mvp 78]

Vaz had a 77 wRC+ last year and 85 for his career. He's not a consistent offensive threat.

[Bellhorn04]

Vaz had a 77 wRC+ last year and 85 for his career. He's not a consistent offensive threat.

 

No. But for a catcher he's a pretty good hitter.

[sk7326]

Vaz had a 77 wRC+ last year and 85 for his career. He's not a consistent offensive threat.

 

2021 was a bad season compared to most since he has been a starter. He likely won't hit 20 HRs ever - that was a fluke for sure. But he has put the ball in play enough to allow the rest of his game to play. He's nothing special - but the Astros were getting nothing from the position so it is a terrific pickup for them considering the price.

[mvp 78]

2021 was a bad season compared to most since he has been a starter. He likely won't hit 20 HRs ever - that was a fluke for sure. But he has put the ball in play enough to allow the rest of his game to play. He's nothing special - but the Astros were getting nothing from the position so it is a terrific pickup for them considering the price.

 

2 months of Vaz? A guy who doesn't frame the ball well and whose bat is just ok. I guess it just depends on how the prospects turn out.

[JDavis76]

2 months of Vaz? A guy who doesn't frame the ball well and whose bat is just ok. I guess it just depends on how the prospects turn out.

 

One could argue that he has an above average bat for his position.....

[moonslav59]

No. But for a catcher he's a pretty good hitter.

 

Indeed, and that has what has made Vaz serviceable over the years.

 

He did have a 2 year stretch where nis OPS was near .800, but at age 33, I doubt he repeats that.

[JDavis76]

Indeed, and that has what has made Vaz serviceable over the years.

 

He did have a 2 year stretch where nis OPS was near .800, but at age 33, ]I doubt he repeats that[/color].

 

That's rich coming from the poster who continually has claimed on here that since offense is down league wide that ".700 is the new .800".

 

Once again you just spin stats to back your narrative, hence the term "moonslop".

[mvp 78]

One could argue that he has an above average bat for his position.....

 

One could argue that there are 18 other catchers in the league that are better than he is so why are we worried about losing 2 months of him?

[Old Red]

One could argue that there are 18 other catchers in the league that are better than he is so why are we worried about losing 2 months of him?

 

The word on the street is, because there is two months left in the season.

[iortiz]

Reading that JBJ was DFAed?

[Nick]

Vaz had a 77 wRC+ last year and 85 for his career. He's not a consistent offensive threat.

 

Exactly.

 

I like him but its always at what cost?

 

Some poster on this board equated his 'situation' with that of Lester and Betts. Vaz is not quite in their league.

[Nick]

Instead of extending Xander, why not go for Aaron Judge? Give HIM the offer he can't refuse.

[iortiz]

Thing with Vaz was his calling game and arm. He was not good. Also, he was a blank check when people tried to steal 2nd.

[moonslav59]

Reading that JBJ was DFAed?

 

So, I guess the report some poster claimed about Bloom turning down a top pitching prospect for JBJ was dead on accurate.

[Old Red]

So, I guess the report some poster claimed about Bloom turning down a top pitching prospect for JBJ was dead on accurate.

 

It was a guy from Philly, so you may be right.

[sk7326]

2 months of Vaz? A guy who doesn't frame the ball well and whose bat is just ok. I guess it just depends on how the prospects turn out.

 

Flags fly forever - and Vazquez is taking a position they had from "terrible" to "not terrible" ... for a team like that, differences are on the margins ...