A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I agree. He is a valuable player, but not a $30 mil although some team may overspend for him. What I thought was fair was 22 AAV. I was told that was ridiculously low. I think it is fair but if it took $25 for 5 I would still do it. More than that is an exercise in overpay.

 

The $22mill AAV was not ridiculously low. But coupled with the years it wasn’t a good offer, and no surprise he didn’t accept it.

 

5 years/$125 to 6/$150 mill should be enough

[moonslav59]

He’s not getting 30M on the open market. 25AAV, 6 years maybe.

 

Story got $24.3M x 6, so $25M x 6 sounds about right, to me.

 

Story is a better defender, but his offense was in question due to his home & away splits (.955 to .740.) A look at Bogeys home & away splits kind of nixes that argument, to some extent:

.873 Home

.757 Away (only .017 better than Story's away split)

 

The Seager and Correa deals seem like outliers.

 

It's always hard to know what one GM might offer, but if we give Bogey $25M x 5 or 6 years and he bolts, I know some will complain and bitch, but I won't blame Henry or Bloom for it.

 

I will wonder why we didn't get more than a comp pick for him, and who made that call.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the updated BTV for Sox players who will be orcan be FAs after, this year:

 

16.6 Bogey (player opt out & no trade clause)

0.7 Nate

0.6 Kike

0.4 Vaz

0.4 JD

0.4 Strahm

0.0 Feliz

-0.1 Plawecki

-0.6 Hill

-0.6 Sawamura (option)

-0.7 Wacha

-10.8 JBJ (option)

 

Selected others with longer team control:

16.2 Verdugo

13.5 Duran

5.7 Dalbec

3.5 Downs

2.9 Seabold

0.0 Brasier

-0.4 Cordero

-5.3 Diekman

 

 

[Hitch]

Story got $24.3M x 6, so $25M x 6 sounds about right, to me.

 

Story is a better defender, but his offense was in question due to his home & away splits (.955 to .740.) A look at Bogeys home & away splits kind of nixes that argument, to some extent:

.873 Home

.757 Away (only .017 better than Story's away split)

 

The Seager and Correa deals seem like outliers.

 

It's always hard to know what one GM might offer, but if we give Bogey $25M x 5 or 6 years and he bolts, I know some will complain and bitch, but I won't blame Henry or Bloom for it.

 

I will wonder why we didn't get more than a comp pick for him, and who made that call.

 

 

 

Obviously, the no trade stipulation X has complicates things, but the Sox must surely know what the offer is around that will get it done, and if they are willing to pull that trigger. If not it is absolutely insane not trading him (assuming he'll go). The package pack would be very good.

[Old Red]

In some ways this mess of 2022 is worse than the mess of 2020. Pretty sad when you consider a $200M+ payroll is financially putting this on the field for all to see. Seems to coincide with the arrival of Bloom in Boston. It took many years to get rid of the curse of the Bambino, but what about the curse of Bloom?

[oldtimer]

In some ways this mess of 2022 is worse than the mess of 2020. Pretty sad when you consider a $200M+ payroll is financially putting this on the field for all to see. Seems to coincide with the arrival of Bloom in Boston. It took many years to get rid of the curse of the Bambino, but what about the curse of Bloom?

 

What bothers me is how few of our prospects look like they can do the job in the majors in 2023. Casas, Bello and Crawford. Yorke looked possible but is in a swoon ( temporary I hope). Downs hasn't shown offense and Duran doesn't seem to have baseball acumen. Bloom needs to get some ML ready talent as it looks like we will need to replace as a minimum JDM and probably Vazquez while at least two outfield positions will need replacement, even if Casas can make the breakthrough in 2023. So far, Bloom's moves haven't borne fruit but perhaps it is unfair to expect his prospect additions to make a difference on the club in 2 years. Several of his low cost additions have not worked out and the trade for JBJ stands out as Bloom's folly. Not all good or bad and as a fan I choose to be patient.

[Old Red]

Can anyone tell me what Duran does good outside of run fast. So many have been clamoring for him to be a starter on here before this season started, and even talking about him, and Dugy only being LF, and one has to go next year. I myself have seen enough of Duran at anytime now, or in the future.

[Bellhorn04]

Can anyone tell me what Duran does good outside of run fast. So many have been clamoring for him to be a starter on here before this season started, and even talking about him, and Dugy only being LF, and one has to go next year. I myself have seen enough of Duran at anytime now, or in the future.

 

He puts up great numbers for Worcester.

[Old Red]

What bothers me is how few of our prospects look like they can do the job in the majors in 2023. Casas, Bello and Crawford. Yorke looked possible but is in a swoon ( temporary I hope). Downs hasn't shown offense and Duran doesn't seem to have baseball acumen. Bloom needs to get some ML ready talent as it looks like we will need to replace as a minimum JDM and probably Vazquez while at least two outfield positions will need replacement, even if Casas can make the breakthrough in 2023. So far, Bloom's moves haven't borne fruit but perhaps it is unfair to expect his prospect additions to make a difference on the club in 2 years. Several of his low cost additions have not worked out and the trade for JBJ stands out as Bloom's folly. Not all good or bad and as a fan I choose to be patient.

I understand the being patient mode, but I don’t agree with being patient not with a payroll of $200M+. Having the Bogey, and Raffy contract situations hanging since before the season even started, and all these expiring contracts were a man made mess, which made this season turn into a bigger mess, and that to me is all on Bloom. His record is what it is, and all the excuse people will try, but it’s nots going to change that. I trust Bloom to know what he doing? NO!, and He’ll no!

[Bellhorn04]

I understand the being patient mode, but I don’t agree with being patient not with a payroll of $200M+. Having the Bogey, and Raffy contract situations hanging since before the season even started, and all these expiring contracts were a man made mess, which made this season turn into a bigger mess, and that to me is all on Bloom.

 

Can you explain how all the expiring contracts are on Bloom?

[Elktonnick]

Can you explain how all the expiring contracts are on Bloom?

Is Bloom VP of Baseball Operations or not? Of course Henry has the ultimate responsibilty.

[Bellhorn04]

Is Bloom VP of Baseball Operations or not? Of course Henry has the ultimate responsibilty.

 

And Dombrowski issued the contracts to Bogey, JDM and Eovaldi.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is Bloom VP of Baseball Operations or not? Of course Henry has the ultimate responsibilty.

 

Bloom is Chief Baseball Officer. But like they asked in Slapshot, "who owns the chief?"

[moonslav59]

Is Bloom VP of Baseball Operations or not? Of course Henry has the ultimate responsibilty.

 

Bloom had a choice on the contracts he inherited?

 

He was able to dump Price's, just in time, but had to throw in Betts to do it. (LOL)

 

I keep hearing "$200M" like Bloom chose all those contracts. This was the first winter he was allowed to spend a significant amount. He basically had $40M last winter, to fill 8+ slots. His first season he was forced to cut salary.

 

Would another GM have made Sale, Nate & others healthy? Bogey, JD and others play to their narms?

 

$26M Sale 0.1 WAR

$22M JD 0.9 WAR

$20M Bogey 3.8

$17M Nate 0.6 WAR.

 

That's just DD's top 5 salaries and it's 5.4 WAR for $121M. These 5 guys, alone represent about 60% of Bloom's entire budget.

 

Sure, blame Bloom for Wacha, Hill, Story, Diekman and Barnes, but when you are forced to restrict your spending and need to fill about 20 slots, year 1, 10 in year 2 and 8 in year 3, I'm not sure how anyone could expect much better.

[moonslav59]

And Dombrowski issued the contracts to Bogey, JDM and Eovaldi.

 

And Sale & Price.

[notin]

Can anyone tell me what Duran does good outside of run fast. So many have been clamoring for him to be a starter on here before this season started, and even talking about him, and Dugy only being LF, and one has to go next year. I myself have seen enough of Duran at anytime now, or in the future.

 

 

And you were among those who wanted him as a starter.

 

I did, too, at one point this year.

 

He is a guy who excelled in the minors with the bat, and certainly deserved a chance. But everything we’ve heard about his defense may have been understated…

[moonslav59]

And you were among those who wanted him as a starter.

 

I did, too, at one point this year.

 

He is a guy who excelled in the minors with the bat, and certainly deserved a chance. But everything we’ve heard about his defense may have been understated…

 

It is often hard for contending teams to have the patience to give a kid a fair and long enough look.

 

Look at the 2021 Dalbec example. Now, in 2022, the patience that seemed like a virtue, last year, seems like it ended up giving us a false sense of security going into this year.

 

Although the circumstances for getting a chance to see Wink, Crawford, Bello and Seabold are not ideal, it may end up being helpful to evaluate the chances any of these kids can be counted in for 2023 and beyond.

 

Everyday prospects include Casas, Wong/RHern, and yes, maybe more time for Duran to grow and show.

 

With a restricted budget likely, this winter, we’ll have to count on some of these kids to fill some important slots- like it or not.

[Old Red]

And you were among those who wanted him as a starter.

 

I did, too, at one point this year.

 

He is a guy who excelled in the minors with the bat, and certainly deserved a chance. But everything we’ve heard about his defense may have been understated…

I never wanted Duran as a starter. I was all for giving him a chance this year, but I have seen enough. No baseball instincts.

[oldtimer]

It is often hard for contending teams to have the patience to give a kid a fair and long enough look.

 

Look at the 2021 Dalbec example. Now, in 2022, the patience that seemed like a virtue, last year, seems like it ended up giving us a false sense of security going into this year.

 

Although the circumstances for getting a chance to see Wink, Crawford, Bello and Seabold are not ideal, it may end up being helpful to evaluate the chances any of these kids can be counted in for 2023 and beyond.

 

Everyday prospects include Casas, Wong/RHern, and yes, maybe more time for Duran to grow and show.

 

With a restricted budget likely, this winter, we’ll have to count on some of these kids to fill some important slots- like it or not.

 

If Arroyo could stay healthy, he would be a good choice for one of our utility players going forward. We may see Devers, Bogey, Story, Dugo and Arroyo as the only holdover field player in 2023. Casas needs to get a look at 1st starting in August. Bloom may have to look for help at two outfield positions, catcher and DH. Along with our pitching needs that may be too much for one year. If Bloom secures a ML ready outfield prospect, that would help.

[Nick]

Bloom had a choice on the contracts he inherited?

 

He was able to dump Price's, just in time, but had to throw in Betts to do it. (LOL)

 

I keep hearing "$200M" like Bloom chose all those contracts. This was the first winter he was allowed to spend a significant amount. He basically had $40M last winter, to fill 8+ slots. His first season he was forced to cut salary.

 

Would another GM have made Sale, Nate & others healthy? Bogey, JD and others play to their narms?

 

$26M Sale 0.1 WAR

$22M JD 0.9 WAR

$20M Bogey 3.8

$17M Nate 0.6 WAR.

That's just DD's top 5 salaries and it's 5.4 WAR for $121M. These 5 guys, alone represent about 60% of Bloom's entire budget.

 

Sure, blame Bloom for Wacha, Hill, Story, Diekman and Barnes, but when you are forced to restrict your spending and need to fill about 20 slots, year 1, 10 in year 2 and 8 in year 3, I'm not sure how anyone could expect much better.

 

Look at it. Study it. Memorize it.

 

And I'm not unhappy with Crawford, Bello and Winckowski. They've shown they can pitch in majors.

 

And always, always trade players when their value is peaking......that's Vaz.

Edited July 31, 2022 by Nick

[Larry Cook]

Looking at the outfield for 2023 and I see two massive holes, maybe 3 if Bradley is jettisoned.

 

Verdugo is in left.

Bradley is a very expensive defensive replacement only.

Duran is your quad a emergency call up.

 

We need a stud center fielder and a stud right fielder, preferably with a cannon for an arm.

[moonslav59]

looking at the outfield for 2023 and i see two massive holes, maybe 3 if bradley is jettisoned.

 

Verdugo is in left.

Bradley is a very expensive defensive replacement only.

Duran is your quad a emergency call up.

 

We need a stud center fielder and a stud right fielder, preferably with a cannon for an arm.

 

of

c

sp

1b

rp

sp

of

[Larry Cook]

of

c

sp

1b

rp

sp

of

 

And dh

[moonslav59]

And dh

 

Yup!

[Larry Cook]

Yup!

 

Cassas probably graduates next spring to Boston. He can fill the first base or dh roll.

[harmony]

Cassas probably graduates next spring to Boston. He can fill the first base or dh roll.

FWIW Triston Casas homered Sunday for Worcester:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-bisons/2022/07/31/666332#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=666332

[moonslav59]

Cassas probably graduates next spring to Boston. He can fill the first base or dh roll.

 

That was the plan, this year: Dalbec bridge to Casas.

 

I do think Bloom will have to choose a slot or two to fill with prospects, and 1B will probably be one of them.

 

Then, if Casas fails, Bloom will be bashed again for not spending what Henry didn’t give him in the first place.

[moonslav59]

FWIW Triston Casas homered Sunday for Worcester:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-bisons/2022/07/31/666332#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=666332

 

September call-up?

[Larry Cook]

September call-up?

 

Maybe, he looks so much better at the plate post injury than he did pre injury.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, he looks so much better at the plate post injury than he did pre injury.

 

I’m not sure about the new rules, but September call ups didn’t used to count against a player’s service time in the past, I believe.