A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

The financial side of the Hosmer trade was outstanding. From that viewpoint I don’t get why San Diego didn’t just keep him.

 

From a baseball standpoint, I’m far from thrilled. I hope Hosmer does well but I full expect a .700-.750 OPS each season going forward…

 

.725 might be all we need to get back to the top, if we can spend more on other open slots, this winter. Getting a free 1Bman may be a bigger help that we realize. If McGuire can handle the staff better, and get his OPS up to .650 of .700 (Vaz's career OPS or .694 from '21-'22), maybe the money saves at catcher can further help improve other positions without having a setback at catcher.

[notin]

Didn't the thing turning have a rewind button?

 

I’d prefer the Mute

[Bellhorn04]

The financial side of the Hosmer trade was outstanding. From that viewpoint I don’t get why San Diego didn’t just keep him.

 

From a baseball standpoint, I’m far from thrilled. I hope Hosmer does well but I full expect a .700-.750 OPS each season going forward…

 

A Hosmer/Dalbec platoon might actually work, in the short term at least. Hosmer hits .811 vs. RHP and Dalbec hits .853 vs. LHP.

[moonslav59]

A Hosmer/Dalbec platoon might actually work, in the short term at least. Hosmer hits .811 vs. RHP and Dalbec hits .853 vs. LHP.

 

Careful. Only hindsight evaluations count.

[Bellhorn04]

I like that Hosmer/Dalbec platoon quite a bit. It would be very cheap and should produce an OPS over .800.

[Larry Cook]

I like that Hosmer/Dalbec platoon quite a bit. It would be very cheap and should produce an OPS over .800.

 

And theoretically, both are better defenders than Cordero!

[moonslav59]

I like that Hosmer/Dalbec platoon quite a bit. It would be very cheap and should produce an OPS over .800.

 

I do, too.

 

I liked Dalbec, Shaw & Casas in March, too.

 

Not all expectations work out well, but this seems worth another try.

 

(I'm only saying this as a way to divert more money to filling other high need areas for 2023.)

[moonslav59]

And theoretically, both are better defenders than Cordero!

 

Have we given up hope on Cordero being a serviceable platoon corner OF'er or 4th OF'er?

 

(I'm pretty close.)

[moonslav59]

If the Sox go second tier all the way, next winter, would this be enough to expect a playoff berth and possible advancement to the ALCS or WS?

 

SS Dansbury Swanson

RF Mitch Haniger

CF Kike Hernandez

SP Chris Bassitt

C Omar Narvaez

1B/OF/DH Trey Mancini (Great clubhouse guy)

 

How about?

 

SS Tim Anderson

CF Brandon Nimmo

SP Charlie Morton or Clayton Kershaw

RP Edwin Diaz

C Mike Zunino or Tucker Barnhart

1B/DH Jose Abreu or Max Muncy (Rizzo?)

 

(Some may be considered first tier.)

Edited August 7, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And theoretically, both are better defenders than Cordero!

 

Franchy couldn't defend his dinner plate with machete, pitchfork and long-handle shovel. But at least he seems likeable, and doesn't make excuses and rag on reporters for asking about misplays.

 

Baseball is supposed to be fun, and if it makes you rich that's even better, but doesn't Sal Perez seem to have too much fun, laughing and joking, as the leader of a last-place team? Maybe any of us would, too, it we could hit missiles every single day against Red Sox pitchers...

[cp176]

If the Sox go second tier all the way, next winter, would this be enough to expect a playoff berth and possible advancement to the ALCS or WS?

 

SS Dansbury Swanson

RF Mitch Haniger

CF Kike Hernandez

SP Chris Bassitt

C Omar Narvaez

1B/OF/DH Trey Mancini (Great clubhouse guy)

 

How about?

 

SS Tim Anderson

CF Brandon Nimmo

SP Charlie Morton or Clayton Kershaw

RP Edwin Diaz

C Mike Zunino or Tucker Barnhart

1B/DH Jose Abreu or Max Muncy (Rizzo?)

 

(Some may be considered first tier.)

 

p u

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox go second tier all the way, next winter, would this be enough to expect a playoff berth and possible advancement to the ALCS or WS?

 

SS Dansbury Swanson

RF Mitch Haniger

CF Kike Hernandez

SP Chris Bassitt

C Omar Narvaez

1B/OF/DH Trey Mancini (Great clubhouse guy)

 

How about?

 

SS Tim Anderson

CF Brandon Nimmo

SP Charlie Morton or Clayton Kershaw

RP Edwin Diaz

C Mike Zunino or Tucker Barnhart

1B/DH Jose Abreu or Max Muncy (Rizzo?)

 

(Some may be considered first tier.)

 

Anderson SS, Haniger RF, Bassitt SP, Barnhart C... all could help, but won't win rings. Kike -- if he doesn't make a great comeback this fall -- may be re-signable for a year plus option, but his hip ish may force him out of full-time CF; that could mean another look at Duran, or even a mid-season promotion for Rafaela, if his rise continues to be unstoppable.

 

D is the key to escaping mediocrity. Here's the scouting report on Red Sox 2021 Defensive Player of the Year Rafaela, from SoxProspects.com: "best position is center field... in the outfield has really good instincts... takes really good routes... plus arm" -- does any of that sound like Duran? Ceddanne currently has 52 XBH in 88 A/AA games... compare with Mookie's last year in the minors: 46 XBH in 99 AA/AAA games. Granted, Rafaela has yet to play Triple A, but the trend is to discount any stats produced in Worcester, anyway.

 

As for recruiting a guy like Diaz, Bloom has shown consistently he'd rather build his own bullpen on unknown or retread bargains. The lone exception was Barnes, and that lesson could be a never-again moment for this regime.

[Nick]

You should always start with starting pitching. Whatever success we had briefly was attributable to quality starts we received from Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta and Wacha.

 

We should spend Eovaldi's money elsewhere. Hs ask will be based on historical results which probably won't be sustainable for next phase of his career.

 

We start with 'good' Pivetta. (29, $2.65M, 2 years of team control)

 

We go next with most recent Kutter Crawford. (26, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We continue with Winckowski as a back end starter. (24, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

I think we have something in Bello as 5/6/7 option. (23, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We will see Mata at some point in 2023. (23, league minimum, probably 7 years of team control, assuming call up in mid 2023)

 

We will again count on Chris Sale because we're paying him $25M+. (33, $25.6M, 2 years plus option year)

 

Big question is will Paxton (33) return at all this year so the team can evaluate him and pick up his 2-year option.

 

We will again sign Wacha/Hill type to round out the starting pitching.

 

Brandon Walter (25), Chris Murphy (24), Connor Seabold (26) and Thaddeus Ward (25) are other names to remember.

 

You ask where is the big name? Well, it should be Chris freakin Sale.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Nick

[notin]

You should always start with starting pitching. Whatever success we had briefly was attributable to quality starts we received from Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta and Wacha.

 

We should spend Eovaldi's money elsewhere. Hs ask will be based on historical results which probably won't be sustainable for next phase of his career.

 

We start with 'good' Pivetta. (29, $2.65M, 2 years of team control)

 

We go next with most recent Kutter Crawford. (26, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We continue with Winckowski as a back end starter. (24, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

I think we have something in Bello as 5/6/7 option. (23, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We will see Mata at some point in 2023. (23, league minimum, probably 7 years of team control, assuming call up in mid 2023)

 

We will again count on Chris Sale because we're paying him $25M+. (33, $25.6M, 2 years plus option year)

 

Big question mark is will Paxton (33) return at all this year so the team can evaluate him and pick up his option.

 

We will again sign Wacha/Hill type to round out the starting pitching.

 

Brandon Walter (25), Chris Murphy (24), Connor Seabold (26) and Thaddeus Ward (25) are other names to remember.

 

The 2023 rotation appears to be drawn up.

 

Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Crawford/Winckowski. With Bello and Mats already on the 40 man as depth.

 

The Sox don’t need to evaluate Paxton; the goal was always to pick up that option…

Edited August 7, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

You should always start with starting pitching. Whatever success we had briefly was attributable to quality starts we received from Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta and Wacha.

 

We should spend Eovaldi's money elsewhere. Hs ask will be based on historical results which probably won't be sustainable for next phase of his career.

 

We start with 'good' Pivetta. (29, $2.65M, 2 years of team control)

 

We go next with most recent Kutter Crawford. (26, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We continue with Winckowski as a back end starter. (24, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

I think we have something in Bello as 5/6/7 option. (23, league minimum, 6 years of team control)

 

We will see Mata at some point in 2023. (23, league minimum, probably 7 years of team control, assuming call up in mid 2023)

 

We will again count on Chris Sale because we're paying him $25M+. (33, $25.6M, 2 years plus option year)

 

Big question mark is will Paxton (33) return at all this year so the team can evaluate him and pick up his option.

 

We will again sign Wacha/Hill type to round out the starting pitching.

 

I'm not so sure we go "Wacha/Hill" types, again, and here's why:

 

In the past, Bloom has needed 2-4 rotation slots filled, every winter, and even if you count needing to replace Nate, Wacha and Hill (+Sale/Paxton), this coming winter as 3-4, I think the idea is to fill a few with the kids- good or bad. Maybe I'm just hoping, here, but I think we go with one much better starter, instead of the pairs like Richards/Perez and Wacha/Hill. I'd love to see an ace type or a solid #2, but a few them were already traded at the deadline (Castillo, Montas...)

 

I'm not sure Kershaw, Bassitt or Morton reach that level. I see them more as solid #3's going into 2023. Maybe we splurge on Verlander on a short deal. Anyway, this would look fine, to me:

 

Verlander

Sale/Paxton (count on just one)

Pivetta

Winckowski/Bello

Crawford/Mata (I'd avoid starting Whitlock, but that may not happen, and who fills his pen role?)

 

[moonslav59]

The 2023 rotation appears to be drawn up.

 

Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Crawford/Winckowski. With Bello and Mats already on the 40 man as depth…

 

I seriously doubt they view this as the full rotation. Maybe they slide Whitlock into one slot or wait for Sale or Paxton to go down to move him there (keeping his innings below 170.) Then, they just add depth like Hill, again.

 

I hope not. I'll be seriously bummed and mildly surprised, if they do.

[notin]

My 2023 preview.

 

And bear in mind if you do not like these, that’s a good y thing. My prediction track record is horrible.

 

1. Bogaerts will not be re-signed. I want him to return but I don’t think it will happen.

 

2. The 2023 winner of the Benintendi Award given to the player who gets traded with no warning is Tanner Houck. No idea where.

 

3. Sox need OF and the free agency class is weak. Expect trade targets to be Ramon Laureano, Anthony Santander, Bryan Reynolds, Garrett Cooper, and Ian Happ. (Basically a bunch of arb eligible guys on cheaper teams.)

 

4. Bullpen after Whitlock and Schreiber? Not sure.

 

5. Other names DFAd, non-tendered, or traded: Franchy Cordero, Darwinzon Hernandez, Jarren Duran.

[Old Red]

My 2023 preview.

 

And bear in mind if you do not like these, that’s a good y thing. My prediction track record is horrible.

 

1. Bogaerts will not be re-signed. I want him to return but I don’t think it will happen.

 

2. The 2023 winner of the Benintendi Award given to the player who gets traded with no warning is Tanner Houck. No idea where.

 

3. Sox need OF and the free agency class is weak. Expect trade targets to be Ramon Laureano, Anthony Santander, Bryan Reynolds, Garrett Cooper, and Ian Happ. (Basically a bunch of arb eligible guys on cheaper teams.)

 

4. Bullpen after Whitlock and Schreiber? Not sure.

 

5. Other names DFAd, non-tendered, or traded: Franchy Cordero, Darwinzon Hernandez, Jarren Duran.

I like #5. I have seen enough. Don’t know about #2, but agree with rest.

[moonslav59]

Out of 971 IP by Sox pitchers, this year, these are the innings from pitchers who see their team control end after 2022:

 

94 Eovaldi (4.23 ERA)

74 R Hill (4.52)

70 Wacha (2.69 done with rehab?)

38 Diekman (4.23 already gone)

28 Strahm (3.58)

25 Robles (5.84 gone)

16 Valdez (4.41 gone)

Total: 345

 

That's 36% of all IP.

 

One might want to replace these IP, too:

43 Sawamura (3.32)

40 Brasier (5.36)

31 Danish (4.02)

18 Barnes (7.50)

12 Ort (9.49)

11 Seabold (11.91)

6 DHern (14.29)

3 Feliz (2.70)

Total: 164 IP

That's another 17% making the combined total near or over 50%.

 

I can't see Sox management deciding to give all thos elost or potentially lost IP to:

 

Wink

Crawford

Bello

Mata

Seabold

German

Murphy

and add more workload to Houck, Whitlock & Schreiber

[moonslav59]

My 2023 preview.

 

And bear in mind if you do not like these, that’s a good y thing. My prediction track record is horrible.

 

1. Bogaerts will not be re-signed. I want him to return but I don’t think it will happen.

 

2. The 2023 winner of the Benintendi Award given to the player who gets traded with no warning is Tanner Houck. No idea where.

 

3. Sox need OF and the free agency class is weak. Expect trade targets to be Ramon Laureano, Anthony Santander, Bryan Reynolds, Garrett Cooper, and Ian Happ. (Basically a bunch of arb eligible guys on cheaper teams.)

 

4. Bullpen after Whitlock and Schreiber? Not sure.

 

5. Other names DFAd, non-tendered, or traded: Franchy Cordero, Darwinzon Hernandez, Jarren Duran.

 

I agree that Bogey will not return. I seriously doubt JD and Nate will, either.

 

I still think trading one of Dugo or Duran makes too much sense.

 

I think we view Hosmer as our 1Bman for the next 2 years and use Casas as part of a package to get a SP, Catcher, OF'er or 2B/SS.

 

I think Bloom/Cora make Whitlock an opening season SP'er and move Wink and/or Crawford to the pen.

 

I think we sign one large & long FA (Judge, TTurner, Correa, Verlander or Nimmo)

 

I think we sign 2 second tier FAs like Haniger/Kike, Swanson/Anderson, Narvaez, Bassitt/Morton/Kershaw, Mancini/Abreu/Muncy

 

I admit, I might be pie-eyed, here.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Bello doesn't make the starting rotation out of ST, he'll be there by mid-season. Too many Sale/Paxton/new inexpensive rehab signings being counted on, once again, not to have major breakdowns, as usual. The young shall inherit the future... Edited August 7, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

If Bello doesn't make the starting rotation out of ST, he'll be there by mid-season. Too many Sale/Paxton/new inexpensive rehab signings being counted on, once again, not to have major breakdowns, as usual. The young shall inherit the future...

 

Agreed. And maybe one or two more, like Ward, will see time.

 

I have no faith in getting full seasons from either Sale or Paxton…

[Nick]

I seriously doubt they view this as the full rotation. Maybe they slide Whitlock into one slot or wait for Sale or Paxton to go down to move him there (keeping his innings below 170.) Then, they just add depth like Hill, again.

 

I hope not. I'll be seriously bummed and mildly surprised, if they do.

 

I wouldn't be. Not sure why you insist on one of Sale and Paxton. Sale suffered two freak injuries this year. You think he will continue his bad luck?

 

In one breath you say no to Wacha/Hill type but then you hedge by saying add a Hill type for depth.

 

The whole idea of hiring Bloom was to have a starting rotation of young, cost controlled pitchers such as Pivetta, Crawford, Winckowski type.

 

Spend money elsewhere.

 

Go get Aaron Judge. Extend Devers. We already have Story making $23M. Hosmer is bargain of the century. Even our bullpen has a good starting point with Houck, Whitlock and Schrieber.

[Nick]

I think we view Hosmer as our 1Bman for the next 2 years and use Casas as part of a package to get a SP, Catcher, OF'er or 2B/SS. by Moon.

 

We've signed two rentals for two minor leaguers.

 

In what planet do you see Bloom trading away a topic prospect such as Casas? Your gut feeling? Come on Moon, give me some concrete evidence that's even under consideration.

 

If Casas is traded, I will never be heard from again.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. And maybe one or two more, like Ward, will see time.

 

I have no faith in getting full seasons from either Sale or Paxton…

 

If Sale and Paxton could time their IL stints apart from each other, it would be very helpful. (LOL)

 

We have a lot of young arms to pool together and come up with 2 starting slots and maybe 3-4 pen slots, but it might take a few trial and error attempts to find the right ones for the right slots, and too many losses could occur during their "trials."

 

The early results on Wink and Crawford have been very encouraging, but it was Bello and Mata that appeared to have the best stuff to win a starting role. That could be a good thing having 4+ guys to choose from over 2, but it could also be a bad thing, if we have to cycle through some failures to end up at a success story.

 

While mayb e none of these guys jump out as a near cinch to make it big, I do think many or all show enough promise to think 3-5 might make a significant contribution in 2023:

 

Bello

Mata

Wink

Crawford

Seabold

Ward (not sure we Rule 5 protect him)

Murphy (Rule 5) Pen?

Walter (Rule 5) Pen?

German (Rule 5) Pen

 

That's 9 arms to fill maybe 4-5 slots.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be. Not sure why you insist on one of Sale and Paxton. Sale suffered two freak injuries this year. You think he will continue his bad luck?

 

In one breath you say no to Wacha/Hill type but then you hedge by saying add a Hill type for depth.

 

The whole idea of hiring Bloom was to have a starting rotation of young, cost controlled pitchers such as Pivetta, Crawford, Winckowski type.

 

Spend money elsewhere.

 

Go get Aaron Judge. Extend Devers. We already have Story making $23M. Hosmer is bargain of the century. Even our bullpen has a good starting point with Houck, Whitlock and Schrieber.

 

I said I think Bloom may choose adding a Hill-type, not that it is what I want to happen. (If Henry opens the wallet, I'm fine with adding veteran SP depth, too.)

 

I'd like to pool all our resources into a few really good players, this winter, rather than spreading the wealth around. I'd like to see the kids fill in the depth roles and 5th starter type slots.

 

No, I'm not counting on for 31 starts. He hasn't had over 25 starts since 2018 and that was 27 starts not 31.

 

I certainly am not counting on Paxton for even 21. I think it is entirely reasonable to count on maybe 33 starts combined. If we get more, great, but planning on 50+ starts from those two is planning on failure, IMO.

 

I want us to sign one solid starter to fill the shoes of Nate, Wacha and Hill. Many would think that is not enough. I think that is giving plenty of room for the kids to fill in the rest of the rotation, and whoever doesn't make it into the starting 5, we know we have plenty of key pen slots open for 2023.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think we view Hosmer as our 1Bman for the next 2 years and use Casas as part of a package to get a SP, Catcher, OF'er or 2B/SS. by Moon.

 

We've signed two rentals for two minor leaguers.

 

In what planet do you see Bloom trading away a topic prospect such as Casas? Your gut feeling? Come on Moon, give me some concrete evidence that's even under consideration.

 

If Casas is traded, I will never be heard from again.

 

Hosmer is not a rental. He's got 2 years of team control remaining and costs just the minimum wage. On a team in need of maximizing spending to fill so many open slots, I see 1B /DH as one we give Hosmer a shot at filling. Planning on him to fill one, for at least 2023, or until he proves he can't hit well enough, anymore.

 

I don't think Bloom trades Casas, but I do think we may need to trade a top prospect to get top quality at non-FA cost. Big trades for SP'ers (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale) has been the trademark of this team that has struggled to develop starters from our farm.

 

Part of my suggested idea of trading Casas, is that I think 1B is the easiest posit2ion to fill in other ways, and I'm not as high on Casas as a prospect as others and BTV seem to be. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm thinking sell high. I'd be okay trading Yorke, but that might be a sell low thing.

 

Of course, there is no concrete evidence of casas trade consideration or any other prospect I am aware of. I realize Bloom's M.O. is to acquire prospects not trade them, as was Ben's, but Ben did trade some, and so has Bloom. (No real top ones, yet.)

 

We could trade Dalbec, but for what?

 

Could you see trading Casas for a top catching or OF prospect? A ML ready 2B/SS type?

 

Are our top prospects more can't miss than a Langeliers (C on the A's) or Laureano (OF on the A's)?

 

BTV Value:

OF 32.1 Laureano

C 23.9 Langeliers (or Soderstrom 38.0) or ML'er Murphy 57.8 9 (3 yrs control)

 

39.7 Casas

21.2 Yorke

5.6 Lugo

5.4 Gonzalez

5.0 Jordan

 

Would you never post again, if we traded Casas and Yorke for Murphy or Casas, Lugo and Gonzalez for Laureano & Langeliers?

 

My guess is, OAK would say no, not BOS.

[notin]

I like #5. I have seen enough. Don’t know about #2, but agree with rest.

 

#5 is my favorite, too. But the only part I’m confident in is a DFA for Cordero, and even then only because it’s been done before.

 

As for #2, well, the notion of trying to predict the unpredictable is oxymoronic. But there is some surprise every year, with Benintendi and then Bradley.

 

Houck could easily be back next year, but simply by virtue f being a closer, he’s probably overvalued. And once you take him out of that role, he’s a mediocre pitcher with questionable control and command who gets by on one devastating pitch…

[moonslav59]

#5 is my favorite, too. But the only part I’m confident in is a DFA for Cordero, and even then only because it’s been done before.

 

As for #2, well, the notion of trying to predict the unpredictable is oxymoronic. But there is some surprise every year, with Benintendi and then Bradley.

 

Houck could easily be back next year, but simply by virtue f being a closer, he’s probably overvalued. And once you take him out of that role, he’s a mediocre pitcher with questionable control and command who gets by on one devastating pitch…

 

The worst part of Cordero was his defense at 1B. With the need for OF depth, I'm not sure he'll be DFA'd. He just won't ever be used at 1B, again.

 

That being said, I do think he is in the top 5 DFA list.

 

I do think Duran is a high trade candidate. I think he brings back more than Dugo would, due to more years of team control and perhaps a higher upside.

[Old Red]

The worst part of Cordero was his defense at 1B. With the need for OF depth, I'm not sure he'll be DFA'd. He just won't ever be used at 1B, again.

 

That being said, I do think he is in the top 5 DFA list.

 

I do think Duran is a high trade candidate. I think he brings back more than Dugo would, due to more years of team control and perhaps a higher upside.

 

Duran would bring more than Dugo? Wow! Duran is way overrated on here by some, and is not in anyway a high trade candidate.