A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

Casas is likely a better fielder at 1B than Hosmer.

 

If they both are in the line-up, I think Casas is at 1B and Hosmer DH.

 

 

I don’t think Hosmer and Casas are ever on this roster at the same time for a while. I’d rather give JDM a QO and keep him as DH. When Casas can play, Hosmer is a waste of space on this roster.

[Hugh2]

What makes anyone think he has any ability to play 2b? He was moved to the OF presumably for a reason.

 

And what exactly is a “natural position”? Where he played in high school and college?

 

He was moved to the outfield because he was blocked in the IF, and the Sox thought his bat would be ready to help the team in 2021. Sox moved Betts off 2nd when he had all the makings of a GG caliber defender there.

 

Duran was a much better defender at 2nd than he is anywhere in the outfield. Not a plus defender, but he would make the routine plays and not embarrass himself

[notin]

He was moved to the outfield because he was blocked in the IF, and the Sox thought his bat would be ready to help the team in 2021. Sox moved Betts off 2nd when he had all the makings of a GG caliber defender there.

 

Duran was a much better defender at 2nd than he is anywhere in the outfield. Not a plus defender, but he would make the routine plays and not embarrass himself

 

 

Blocked by who? A guy who played 9 more games in his career after Duran was drafted? That was pretty poor planning.

 

(Also wasn’t Betts’ conversion to OF hastened by the early struggles of JBJ? Betts did start out in CF.)

[Hugh2]

Blocked by who? A guy who played 9 more games in his career after Duran was drafted? That was pretty poor planning.

 

(Also wasn’t Betts’ conversion to OF hastened by the early struggles of JBJ? Betts did start out in CF.)

 

I'm not entirely sure to be fair, but I do know at the time the Sox had a guy called Dustin Pedroia at 2nd, now he was riddled with injuries but this was at a point in time we were still hopeful he was going to come back and play for several more years. Duran was never a plus defender, but scouts had him pegged as an average defender at 2nd from what I remember. There was the belief his speed was wasted at 2nd and he might be better suited for the outfield.....sometimes scouts are wrong.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Hosmer and Casas are ever on this roster at the same time for a while. I’d rather give JDM a QO and keep him as DH. When Casas can play, Hosmer is a waste of space on this roster.

 

I think when Casas is ready, he's going to be on the 26- maybe even this year.

 

I think a free Hosmer will remain on the 26 for much longer than some expect. Of course, if he slumps, that changes. He was literally, the poster boy for up-and-down seasons over his first 8 years in the bigs: odd-good/ even-bad or so-so. Since then, he has a .743 OPS (2019-2022.) While that is not what we hope to expect from 1B, it's not awful, either. (162 avg was about: .270 20 90 w 50 XBHs.)

 

I can see both being on the roster for a while. I don't like the idea of Hosmer at DH, but I get the feeling we will have to go "light" somewhere in the line-up, and DH might be the best choice, in terms of flexibility and the ability to easily fill via mid-season trade, if needed.

 

We may choose the catching position (McGuire/Wong/RHern), 1B (Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec) or 2B (Arroyo/Downs) to go light, but I think 1B/DH will be Bloom's choice. I think we add, at minimum, a Catcher, 2B/SS, CF, RF and Pitching.

 

[Hugh2]

Also, it's not like Daniel Nava and Johnny Gomes were lighting the world on fire and long-term options in the outfield in 2014 either. I think that's when they moved Betts to the outfield. With Pedroia as the 2nd baseman and no viable outfield options into the future other than JBJ (who was struggling), there were seemingly 2-3 open spots in the outfield for Betts. Betts might not be the best comparison because he was definitely moved to fit into the team, whereas Duran was moved because it was thought his tools would play up better in the outfield......again.....they were wrong.

[Hugh2]

I think when Casas is ready, he's going to be on the 26- maybe even this year.

 

I think a free Hosmer will remain on the 26 for much longer than some expect. Of course, if he slumps, that changes. He was literally, the poster boy for up-and-down seasons over his first 8 years in the bigs: odd-good/ even-bad or so-so. Since then, he has a .743 OPS (2019-2022.) While that is not what we hope to expect from 1B, it's not awful, either. (162 avg was about: .270 20 90 w 50 XBHs.)

 

I can see both being on the roster for a while. I don't like the idea of Hosmer at DH, but I get the feeling we will have to go "light" somewhere in the line-up, and DH might be the best choice, in terms of flexibility and the ability to easily fill via mid-season trade, if needed.

 

We may choose the catching position (McGuire/Wong/RHern), 1B (Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec) or 2B (Arroyo/Downs) to go light, but I think 1B/DH will be Bloom's choice. I think we add, at minimum, a Catcher, 2B/SS, CF, RF and Pitching.

 

 

I think there's a real danger with having too many platoons, especially on this team, I'd rather have the extra arm in the pen...especially if they keep Whitlock there. I don't think DH is the position you should ever go light on, I'd rather have a plus defender at CF/SS/C hitting 9th. You either need a good bat, or use it as a rotation to rest players. I don't disagree that Casas and Hosmer play on the same team, but if Casas is hitting and Hosmer is not I don't expect that to last long. And if they're both hitting and the Sox have a viable DH, you trade Hosmer....and you get more for him than SD did because his salary is free.

[Old Red]

I think when Casas is ready, he's going to be on the 26- maybe even this year.

 

I think a free Hosmer will remain on the 26 for much longer than some expect. Of course, if he slumps, that changes. He was literally, the poster boy for up-and-down seasons over his first 8 years in the bigs: odd-good/ even-bad or so-so. Since then, he has a .743 OPS (2019-2022.) While that is not what we hope to expect from 1B, it's not awful, either. (162 avg was about: .270 20 90 w 50 XBHs.)

 

I can see both being on the roster for a while. I don't like the idea of Hosmer at DH, but I get the feeling we will have to go "light" somewhere in the line-up, and DH might be the best choice, in terms of flexibility and the ability to easily fill via mid-season trade, if needed.

 

We may choose the catching position (McGuire/Wong/RHern), 1B (Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec) or 2B (Arroyo/Downs) to go light, but I think 1B/DH will be Bloom's choice. I think we add, at minimum, a Catcher, 2B/SS, CF, RF and Pitching.

 

There is, and has been all kinds of hype on Casas for a few years now. Duran, and Jeter Downs had plenty of hype on them, too, and they both suck. That’s why I have said many times that minor league players are useless until they put on a Red Sox uniform, and produce, or are traded for one who does. Not all minor league players are prospects. I hope Casas lives up to all his hype, but if he don’t what then?

[Elktonnick]

I think there's a real danger with having too many platoons, especially on this team, I'd rather have the extra arm in the pen...especially if they keep Whitlock there. I don't think DH is the position you should ever go light on, I'd rather have a plus defender at CF/SS/C hitting 9th. You either need a good bat, or use it as a rotation to rest players. I don't disagree that Casas and Hosmer play on the same team, but if Casas is hitting and Hosmer is not I don't expect that to last long. And if they're both hitting and the Sox have a viable DH, you trade Hosmer....and you get more for him than SD did because his salary is free.

 

I see the Red Sox are having Dalbec work on playing 2nd base. The Sox are moving every one around so much they might try Duran at catcher. 😀

[Bellhorn04]

There is, and has been all kinds of hype on Casas for a few years now. Duran, and Jeter Downs had plenty of hype on them, too, and they both suck. That’s why I have said many times that minor league players are useless until they put on a Red Sox uniform, and produce, or are traded for one who does. Not all minor league players are prospects. I hope Casas lives up to all his hype, but if he don’t what then?

 

That's why God made free agents.

[Elktonnick]

That's why God made free agents.

God did not make free agents in baseball but Lou Brock and Marvin Miller did.

[Hugh2]

There is, and has been all kinds of hype on Casas for a few years now. Duran, and Jeter Downs had plenty of hype on them, too, and they both suck. That’s why I have said many times that minor league players are useless until they put on a Red Sox uniform, and produce, or are traded for one who does. Not all minor league players are prospects. I hope Casas lives up to all his hype, but if he don’t what then?

 

Nobody truly knows how these prospects will pan out, I like to think of prospects as lottery tickets (yeah, a bad example talking about actual people but whatever lol) with the higher end prospects giving you a larger chance of hitting. But hey, if you have a 90% chance of hitting it big you still lose 10% of the time, and if you have a 99% chance of not then 1% of the time you do hit it big. We have Lars Andersons and Rusney Castillos and we also have Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts too. It's just the way of prospectetum.

 

One thing I recall recently is on a past Soxprospects podcast (I think about a year ago), the staff there talking about how they thought Duran was being over ranked by the national media, and they (who had the most eyes on him) where not as high on him. They always kind of pegged him as a 4th outfielder type, maybe more if he ever put it together and he could be a bat first LF type. They also compared it to the time when the national media was much higher on Lars Anderson than they were on him too. Even the best scouts are going to be wrong, A LOT, but I trust the guys who have the most eyes on players. I will say this, the guy who they think is being overhyped now is....Rafael Caddenne, who people think is going to be the next Mookie Betts, but I think a more appropriate ceiling for him might be Kike Hernandez, and that's still really really good.

 

You're right about Casas, I do however have a higher degree of confidence he's going to pan out but nothing is guaranteed until they're there in the bigs doing it. I actually think Casas has the ability to hit better in the majors than he does in the minors, I think his true power doesn't show because he's so patient and pitcher seldomly challenge him. We shall see.

[Old Red]

I see the Red Sox are having Dalbec work on playing 2nd base. The Sox are moving every one around so much they might try Duran at catcher.

 

Yes, but he still can’t hit.

[moonslav59]

I think there's a real danger with having too many platoons, especially on this team, I'd rather have the extra arm in the pen...especially if they keep Whitlock there. I don't think DH is the position you should ever go light on, I'd rather have a plus defender at CF/SS/C hitting 9th. You either need a good bat, or use it as a rotation to rest players. I don't disagree that Casas and Hosmer play on the same team, but if Casas is hitting and Hosmer is not I don't expect that to last long. And if they're both hitting and the Sox have a viable DH, you trade Hosmer....and you get more for him than SD did because his salary is free.

 

I'm not against trading away players or prospects, assuming we get equal or greater value in return at a position of higher need.

 

I do see some positions with duplicated values, even if some of those values saw a tumble in 2022.

 

I one way, it makes sense to keep as many as possible, in hopes one rises to the top, but too many crowds the roster and creates a situation where a manager has to trial and error until he finds one, if he ever does.

 

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

 

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (Cottam)

 

LF: Dugo, Pham, Duran

 

I'd be fine trading 1 or 2 from each group, although some would bring back very little.

Make the choice early and live with it.

Choose to upgrade not to add quantity.

 

Bloom's early task and strategy was to add quantity: this winter is the time to focus on adding quality over quantity.

[Hugh2]

I see the Red Sox are having Dalbec work on playing 2nd base. The Sox are moving every one around so much they might try Duran at catcher.

 

But at least Duran has some experience there, and this isn't saying much, but he was a much better defender at 2nd than he is in the outfield.

[Elktonnick]

But at least Duran has some experience there, and this isn't saying much, but he was a much better defender at 2nd than he is in the outfield.

Even Spier echoes Merloni and writes that Bloom's action are causing confusion in the front office. This moving everyone strikes me as panic. Bloom says he has a plan but it looks like operation chaos . When I was in the Army we had a technical term for what Bloom is doing "FUBAR"

Edited August 9, 2022 by Elktonnick

[Old Red]

I'm not against trading away players or prospects, assuming we get equal or greater value in return at a position of higher need.

 

I do see some positions with duplicated values, even if some of those values saw a tumble in 2022.

 

I one way, it makes sense to keep as many as possible, in hopes one rises to the top, but too many crowds the roster and creates a situation where a manager has to trial and error until he finds one, if he ever does.

 

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

 

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (Cottam)

 

LF: Dugo, Pham, Duran

 

I'd be fine trading 1 or 2 from each group, although some would bring back very little.

Make the choice early and live with it.

Choose to upgrade not to add quantity.

 

Bloom's early task and strategy was to add quantity: this winter is the time to focus on adding quality over quantity.

 

Don’t want any part of Duran on the Red Sox roster at all. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, but all these catchers mentioned are nothing, but backups.

[Hugh2]

Even Spier echoes Merloni and writes that Bloom's action are causing confusion in the front office. This moving everyone strikes me as panic. Bloom says he has a plan but it looks like operation chaos . When I was in the Army we had a technical term for what Bloom is doing "FUBAR"

 

I get that Bloom is getting harder and harder to defend, but I'm willing to bet he had almost zero involvement in moving Duran to the outfield. I could be wrong.

[Hugh2]

Don’t want any part of Duran on the Red Sox roster at all. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, but all these catchers mentioned are nothing, but backups.

 

With Plawecki gone after this season we need a back up. We need a starter as well, one of those three can stay in Boston.

[notin]

Don’t want any part of Duran on the Red Sox roster at all. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, but all these catchers mentioned are nothing, but backups.

 

If the “backup” is a talented defender who can’t hit, I don’t mind. Vazquez wasn’t a good hitter when he first came up, either and had a 69 OPS+ for his first 1,000 PA…

[Elktonnick]

I get that Bloom is getting harder and harder to defend, but I'm willing to bet he had almost zero involvement in moving Duran to the outfield. I could be wrong.

That may be true but who is keeping there.

[notin]

I get that Bloom is getting harder and harder to defend, but I'm willing to bet he had almost zero involvement in moving Duran to the outfield. I could be wrong.

 

He had none. Duran moved to the outfield in 2018, two years before Bloom was hired…

[Old Red]

I get that Bloom is getting harder and harder to defend, but I'm willing to bet he had almost zero involvement in moving Duran to the outfield. I could be wrong.

 

We’ll go with that, but I believe it is his decision to have Duran still be playing in Boston instead of back in Worcester, or below learning how to track, and catch a fly ball instead of looking like a 12 yr old trying to catch a butterfly.

[notin]

That may be true but who is keeping there.

 

Players do change positions all the time in the minors and even in the majors.

 

Bloom did keep Duran on the OF, but one reason to do it is the Sox system is completely devoid of outfield talent above A ball, with only Rafaela Cedane as the exception due to a recent promotion to Portland.

 

So if they put Duran back at 2b - not the worst idea - who plays CF?

[mvp 78]

Players do change positions all the time in the minors and even in the majors.

 

Bloom did keep Duran on the OF, but one reason to do it is the Sox system is completely devoid of outfield talent above A ball, with only Rafaela Cedane as the exception due to a recent promotion to Portland.

 

So if they put Duran back at 2b - not the worst idea - who plays CF?

 

Does Duran play CF?

[Old Red]

Players do change positions all the time in the minors and even in the majors.

 

Bloom did keep Duran on the OF, but one reason to do it is the Sox system is completely devoid of outfield talent above A ball, with only Rafaela Cedane as the exception due to a recent promotion to Portland.

 

So if they put Duran back at 2b - not the worst idea - who plays CF?

Who’s playing CF now? Looks like Pham, and Dugy are doing double duty.

[Elktonnick]

Does Duran play CF?

 

BobbY Dalbec! Hell they are trying him at 2nd base. Given Bloom's track record a move to Centerfield can not be far off.

[Old Red]

Does Duran play CF?

 

I didn’t think he had been all that bad in the little time I had seen him, but boy was he exposed.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Old Red

[notin]

Does Duran play CF?

 

Yes. Very poorly…

[notin]

BobbY Dalbec! Hell they are trying him at 2nd base. Given Bloom's track record a move to Centerfield can not be far off.

 

Dalbec has 2 innings at 2b, fewer than Christian Vazquez.

 

A lot of those weird positions were more due to injuries and late game switches with no one left. More of a Cora thing.

 

That said, Dalbec is a corner outfielder and needs to be moved there in the immediate future…