A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If he really wants to return to Boston, he can simply exercise his player half of his mutual option rather than making statements about it to the press…

 

Schwarbs didn't mention his option but said, "this is definitely a clubhouse I could see myself wanting to stay in". If that interview was printed in a Mad Magazine feature, the thought word bubble might add: "... if Boston backs up an armored truck full of cash to my garage."

[Tedballgame]

Schwarbs didn't mention his option but said, "this is definitely a clubhouse I could see myself wanting to stay in". If that interview was printed in a Mad Magazine feature, the thought word bubble might add: "... if Boston backs up an armored truck full of cash to my garage."

 

He is not stupid. Anybody in his position, at his age, is going to try to maximize his value. He said he would like to come back but we all know that means if the Sox are competitive with other offers, and I am sure, he feels comfortable with the position he will be playing.

[jad]

Some thoughts on the potential 2022 40 man rostery

 

 

 

Infield:

We keep Devers and he plays 3rd. I agree that he needs to accept coaching regarding plate discipline and overswinging to further improve his value. Please stop chewing tobacco for your own health considerations. We also keep Bogaerts at short. Both he and Devers have had defensive shortcomings, but 2022 is not the year to move either. I see Arroyo as a very competent defensive 2nd baseman. He can hit enough to be FT but if we could find better, he would make an excellent utility infielder.

My understanding is that he chews a mixture of gum and sunflower seeds. Having used tobacco like that, I can say there is no way he could have that wad in his cheek without spitting grotesquely and continually.

[moonslav59]

My understanding is that he chews a mixture of gum and sunflower seeds. Having used tobacco like that, I can say there is no way he could have that wad in his cheek without spitting grotesquely and continually.

 

Good to know.

[jad]

Good to know.

 

Also, I believe MLB bans the use of any tobacco. (You don't see guys with cans of Copenhagen in their backpockets anymore -- not sure why that was supposed to look cool, maybe some Freudian thing about carrying giant condoms at all times, you know, just in case ...)

[Old Red]

Three Things First

 

1. The first big news we will likely be hearing is JD's opt out choice. He has to choose shortly after the WS ends. He'll make $19.35M in 2022, if he chooses to stay. He won't get that per year, if he opts out, but this might be his best and last chance to get a multiple year deal with more guaranteed money overall.

 

For the longest time, I thought he would not opt out, but now I think it is close to 50-50. The chances of an NL DH won't be known when he chooses, but that may be a factor.

 

He's on the backside of his career, but the guy can still rake, and his work ethic is something that rubs off on teammates. I never really felt like 2020 was long enough to make a judgement on JD's decline, and I think 2021 seemed more in line with the expected decline of a hitter as he goes beyond 31 and 32 years old. Plenty of players have shown they can keep pretty steady after 32-33 years old, and one might think JD would be one of them, but it's hard to tell.

 

If we just throw out 2020, his decline looks slow but not too steep:

 

1.066 2017

1.031 2018

.939 in 2019

.867 in 2021

One might expect something like .800 in 2022. That'spretty good, but not really all that great for a DH making over $19M.

 

I've been on record as preferring Schwarber to JD, if he opts out or if we can trade him with some cash, if he doesn't, but I'm not sure trading him is really a realistic option.

 

2. To offer ERod a QO or not? This is both the team's choice to offer, and ERod's choice to accept or not. I've been a big ERod supporter over the years, because he's a winner, but the whole COVID complications thing is still worrisome. He struggled out of the gate, but did much better over his last 17 starts and then in the playoffs. No other Sox starter got hit so hard by the defense, at least in terms of BAbip (.364 vs .301 career before 2021.)

 

Personally, I'd offer him the QO, but I would not be all that upset, if he said no. We'd get a comp pick and have the $18.5M to spend on another pitcher(s). I have no idea if we'll offer the QO, or if ERod accepts or decline.

 

3. The $7M Vaz option seems like a no brainer, and I am near certain we give it to Vaz. I'm not so certain we keep or trade him, but I'm likely in a minority. Watching Maldy go something like 2 of 40 but lead his broken staff to success after success makes me think we can do better. The other options, Richards and Perez are no brainer "NOs!"

 

Further moves depend on these three situations.

 

Let’s remember that JD did not have his binky ( iPad) in 2020, and really seemed to affect him. He is on the way down, but I think he’s still good for 90-100 RBI, but not a 300 hitter anymore.

[notin]

Let’s remember that JD did not have his binky ( iPad) in 2020, and really seemed to affect him. He is on the way down, but I think he’s still good for 90-100 RBI, but not a 300 hitter anymore.

 

JD posted a .867 OPS and a 126OPS+. I don't really care if he hits .300 anymore, but he did hit 286 last year, which for his at-bats means he was a whopping 8 hits away from hitting .300. 2020 was a ridiculous season that can be ignored for a lot of reasons...

[moonslav59]

Let’s remember that JD did not have his binky ( iPad) in 2020, and really seemed to affect him. He is on the way down, but I think he’s still good for 90-100 RBI, but not a 300 hitter anymore.

 

I think the "binky" thing has some merit, but he's obviously adjusted.

 

I still don't really count 2020 against anyone. 2021 seems in line with the expected decline of JD from his 2018 and 2019 numbers. The trend seems to point to about an .800 season in 2022, but I would not be surprised if JD ends up over .850. If he does not opt out, 2022 will determine how much he gets in his next contract- to a large extent. (That does not mean the player always does well.)

[Nick]

I think the "binky" thing has some merit, but he's obviously adjusted.

 

I still don't really count 2020 against anyone. 2021 seems in line with the expected decline of JD from his 2018 and 2019 numbers. The trend seems to point to about an .800 season in 2022, but I would not be surprised if JD ends up over .850. If he does not opt out, 2022 will determine how much he gets in his next contract- to a large extent. (That does not mean the player always does well.)

 

And for me that includes the World Series champ, Dodgers. Not a real season. If any baseball record needs an asterisk, that's one of them.

[moonslav59]

And for me that includes the World Series champ, Dodgers. Not a real season. If any baseball record needs an asterisk, that's one of them.

 

What about the strike shortened seasons?

[notin]

What about the strike shortened seasons?

 

Two of them did not even have World Series...

[moonslav59]

Two of them did not even have World Series...

 

One, the Sox finished 1/2 game behind Detroit in a lop-sided games played format.

[notin]

One, the Sox finished 1/2 game behind Detroit in a lop-sided games played format.

 

I suppose technically the 1904 World Series was not cancelled due to a labor disagreement, but rather due to one time deciding they already won and didn't need to play anymore...

[illinoisredsox]

I suppose technically the 1904 World Series was not cancelled due to a labor disagreement, but rather due to one time deciding they already won and didn't need to play anymore...

 

Do the Giants display a 1904 World Champion flag/banner/placard or just a National League Champions one?

[mvp 78]

Do the Giants display a 1904 World Champion flag/banner/placard or just a National League Champions one?

 

I believe they only fly WS flags. 1904 is not included as a WS win.

[Old Red]

One, the Sox finished 1/2 game behind Detroit in a lop-sided games played format.

 

The Sox lost 2 out of 3 to Detroit on the last weekend of the season, but for MLB to not have everybody play the same amount of games is still mind boggling after all these years.

[moonslav59]

The Sox lost 2 out of 3 to Detroit on the last weekend of the season, but for MLB to not have everybody play the same amount of games is still mind boggling after all these years.

 

It still bothers me, almost 40 years later.

[Old Red]

It still bothers me, almost 40 years later.

 

I can still see Louie Apprecio tripping over the 3B BAG.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox lost 2 out of 3 to Detroit on the last weekend of the season, but for MLB to not have everybody play the same amount of games is still mind boggling after all these years.

 

It's also worth noting the Tigers won the first 2 games of that series, which made the last one meaningless.

[moonslav59]

I can still see Louie Apprecio tripping over the 3B BAG.

 

Luis Aparicio was one of my favorites, and he's one reason I am highly biased against average to below average defensive SSs.

 

That was the first season I started watching the Sox, since my family had just moved to Maine. That winter, the Sox traded for my favorite player from Milwaukee, Tommy Harper, and I started rooting for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Best news in a while... ARod likely out on Sunday Night Baseball

 

[bhttps://fansided.com/2021/10/23/mlb-rumors-alex-rodriguez-sunday-night-baseball/?a_aid=41091&fbclid=IwAR2UCnpK4yDaJjLRhPNJBWZ9YmgieeAaw9EspCsvDxBcREnJGoGpywIxgrc[/b]

[Old Red]

It's also worth noting the Tigers won the first 2 games of that series, which made the last one meaningless.

 

It was still crazy that everyone didn’t play the same amount of games.

[Bellhorn04]

It was still crazy that everyone didn’t play the same amount of games.

 

Agreed. It didn't bother me that much because we had our shot. Whichever team won 2 of 3 in that series won the division.

[Old Red]

Best news in a while... ARod likely out on Sunday Night Baseball

 

[bhttps://fansided.com/2021/10/23/mlb-rumors-alex-rodriguez-sunday-night-baseball/?a_aid=41091&fbclid=IwAR2UCnpK4yDaJjLRhPNJBWZ9YmgieeAaw9EspCsvDxBcREnJGoGpywIxgrc[/b]

 

And to think the Sox almost ended up with that Fraud.

[mvp 78]

And to think the Sox almost ended up with that Fraud.

 

In that timeline, ARod actually stays away from PED's and gets a good personality.

[Old Red]

Luis Aparicio was one of my favorites, and he's one reason I am highly biased against average to below average defensive SSs.

 

That was the first season I started watching the Sox, since my family had just moved to Maine. That winter, the Sox traded for my favorite player from Milwaukee, Tommy Harper, and I started rooting for the Sox.

 

Tommy added some excitement to the Sox who didn’t have much speed, and could steal a few bases, which was a big part of the game back then.

[Nick]

What about the strike shortened seasons?

 

Reds fans will always point out that they had the best overall record but did not quality because did not win either 'seasons'.

[moonslav59]

Tommy added some excitement to the Sox who didn’t have much speed, and could steal a few bases, which was a big part of the game back then.

 

Yes, he was one of the first to hit 30-30 (with the Brewers) and led the league is SBs for the Sox- not a common occurence.

[moonslav59]

Reds fans will always point out that they had the best overall record but did not quality because did not win either 'seasons'.

 

That was just downright silly.

[notin]

Best news in a while... ARod likely out on Sunday Night Baseball

 

[bhttps://fansided.com/2021/10/23/mlb-rumors-alex-rodriguez-sunday-night-baseball/?a_aid=41091&fbclid=IwAR2UCnpK4yDaJjLRhPNJBWZ9YmgieeAaw9EspCsvDxBcREnJGoGpywIxgrc[/b]

 

I have no problem with ARod on ESPN. He's infinitely better than Rick Sutcliffe...