A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Then they would have 40-50 million tied up at SS and 2B. Not happening.

 

Agreed, unless they deal Bogey.

 

I just said who I preferred.

 

I’d also prefer Biaz to Schwarber, even at a higher cost.

[moonslav59]

Last night the Braves scored 3 runs due to their elite speed guys. Two beat out infield hits and one stolen base. It's doubly helpful when those guys are also good fielders. The Sox tend to be slow and the infield is the worst in the league defensively. The players in the Sox system who have elite speed are Duran and Rosario. From what I saw of Duran, he made all the plays that came his way and wasn't given nearly the opportunity Gonzalez was given at the plate. Rosario regressed at the plate this year.

 

Notin loves to rag on Duran constantly for reasons known only to him. I want to keep the kid and to give him a real opportunity to make the team. We have Verdugo and Kike who did a good job this year and Renfroe, not so much. The idea of playing Schwaber as a regular outfielder is asking for trouble. He could as a fill in but not FT. Injury issues and marginal defense should keep him at DH and only if Martinez opts out. We could have an outfield spot open plus our bench should include a utility outfielder. There is room for Duran.

 

If Schwarber returns, he and JD are the 4th oFers

[moonslav59]

Notin's ragging on Duran makes at least as much sense as your ragging on Renfroe. Renfroe made 3.1 million and hit 31 homers and had 96 RBI. We didn't make the postseason without him. He slumped in the ALCS. It happens to many good hitters.

 

I don't mean to pick on you about that. I enjoy your posts. Just disagree about Renfroe.

 

And, although Renfroe is not very good on D, despite his arm, he seems better than Duran on D and O, at this time.

[notin]

He's perpetually the "too high" guy from Major League.

 

That was Chicago radio personality and current host of MeTV's nationally syndicated "Toon Into Me" cartoon programming Bill Leff...

[Nick]

Jeter Downs’ Torrid Fall League Run Is Perfect Start For Red Sox In Pivotal Offseason NESN

 

It’s a terribly small sample size, but Downs’ grand slam Monday night was his fifth home run in six games out in the desert. It doesn’t mean Downs is ready for the big leagues, of course, but it must be viewed as a positive given the relative struggles Downs faced in 2021.

 

The 22-year-old, who entered the season as Baseball America’s No. 71 prospect, hit just .190 while playing in 99 games for Triple-A Worcester. He did showcase some pop, hitting 14 home runs with nine doubles, but obviously, expectations are much higher for the infielder acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Mookie Betts trade.

 

However, any conversation about Downs’ 2021 showing in Worcester should be accompanied by the following caveat: He was 4 1/2 years younger than the average Triple-A player. It’s probably not a coincidence that he’s now raking in Arizona where the average age of his Scottsdale Scorpions is 22, and he’s just a half-year younger than the average age for the entire league.

 

I'm pretty much opposed to trading away any of our prospects.

 

Fans here casually make Groome as part of a trade package as an example. Just not sure why we're so eager to trade away 6 years of team control. He's just getting into his groove.

 

We complained how DD emptied out our farm (which seems not entirely correct) yet we're eager to trade away potential 18 years for 3 years of control as some of the trades on here have been suggested.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Biggest Issues for Chime...

 

Finding 2 Starting Pitchers

 

1 5 days after the World Series, we'll find out the status of E Rod

2 amount of money spent on a free agent starting pitcher will give us hint as to what roles Houck and/or Whitlock will play in 2022.

 

Filling out the Bullpen

 

This will probably be an on going task all the way through Spring Training

 

JD/Schwarber situation

 

Even if JD remains, it's a one year dilemma. Please don't bring back Santana/Gonzalez type players. Please. Having another 'starter' won't hurt the team. JD will turn 35 during 2022 season, Schwarber will be 29. Think about that.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

How about signing Correa and put Bogey on 2nd base?

 

Sounds good to me.

[mvp 78]

Semien or Baez is a better idea.

 

My worry about Semien is that his one great year is going to overinflate his price tag.

[mvp 78]

Then they would have 40-50 million tied up at SS and 2B. Not happening.

 

Sign Baez for SS, Semien for 2B. Move Xander to 3B. Move Raffy to LF.

[mvp 78]

Jeter Downs’ Torrid Fall League Run Is Perfect Start For Red Sox In Pivotal Offseason NESN

 

It’s a terribly small sample size, but Downs’ grand slam Monday night was his fifth home run in six games out in the desert. It doesn’t mean Downs is ready for the big leagues, of course, but it must be viewed as a positive given the relative struggles Downs faced in 2021.

 

The 22-year-old, who entered the season as Baseball America’s No. 71 prospect, hit just .190 while playing in 99 games for Triple-A Worcester. He did showcase some pop, hitting 14 home runs with nine doubles, but obviously, expectations are much higher for the infielder acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Mookie Betts trade.

 

However, any conversation about Downs’ 2021 showing in Worcester should be accompanied by the following caveat: He was 4 1/2 years younger than the average Triple-A player. It’s probably not a coincidence that he’s now raking in Arizona where the average age of his Scottsdale Scorpions is 22, and he’s just a half-year younger than the average age for the entire league.

 

I'm pretty much opposed to trading away any of our prospects.

 

Fans here casually make Groome as part of a trade package as an example. Just not sure why we're so eager to trade away 6 years of team control. He's just getting into his groove.

 

We complained how DD emptied out our farm (which seems not entirely correct) yet we're eager to trade away potential 18 years for 3 years of control as some of the trades on here have been suggested.

 

Groome isn't high on anyone's want list. I think people just move him because he's perceived as a wasted 40 man spot. As always, we overemphasize the bottom of the 40 man roster because it's low hanging fruit.

[moonslav59]

Jeter Downs’ Torrid Fall League Run Is Perfect Start For Red Sox In Pivotal Offseason NESN

 

It’s a terribly small sample size, but Downs’ grand slam Monday night was his fifth home run in six games out in the desert. It doesn’t mean Downs is ready for the big leagues, of course, but it must be viewed as a positive given the relative struggles Downs faced in 2021.

 

The 22-year-old, who entered the season as Baseball America’s No. 71 prospect, hit just .190 while playing in 99 games for Triple-A Worcester. He did showcase some pop, hitting 14 home runs with nine doubles, but obviously, expectations are much higher for the infielder acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Mookie Betts trade.

 

However, any conversation about Downs’ 2021 showing in Worcester should be accompanied by the following caveat: He was 4 1/2 years younger than the average Triple-A player. It’s probably not a coincidence that he’s now raking in Arizona where the average age of his Scottsdale Scorpions is 22, and he’s just a half-year younger than the average age for the entire league.

 

I'm pretty much opposed to trading away any of our prospects.

 

Fans here casually make Groome as part of a trade package as an example. Just not sure why we're so eager to trade away 6 years of team control. He's just getting into his groove.

 

We complained how DD emptied out our farm (which seems not entirely correct) yet we're eager to trade away potential 18 years for 3 years of control as some of the trades on here have been suggested.

 

Depends what you get back.

 

Trading away 6 years of Downs and Duran for someone like Mountcastle with 5 years makes sense. For someone like Montas (2 years), I'd still do it, but I get your point.

[moonslav59]

My worry about Semien is that his one great year is going to overinflate his price tag.

 

He had a better year in 2019, but I agree. I keep mentioning him, because I know Bloom was interested in him, last winter.

 

I think out best target, other than pitching, is Baez. He may be the cheapest of all the "top" SSs and has a nice glove.

 

The GG winning SS can play 2B and 3B, too.

 

From 2018-2021, he put up these numbers on offense:

 

.270/.311/.508/.819

 

Per 650 PAs

.270 33 100 (82 XBH/ 17 SB)

 

As a comp:

Bogey .299 28 104 (74 XBH/ 7 SB)

Correa .266 27 98 (60 XBH/2 SB)

T Story .281 32 91 (77 XBH/ 25 SB)

Semien .264 27 80 (68 XBH/ 11 SB)

Seager .224 29 92 (61 XBH/ 4 SB)

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by moonslav59

[Tedballgame]

Sign Baez for SS, Semien for 2B. Move Xander to 3B. Move Raffy to LF.

 

And just like that, Raffy is a major league outfielder? I don't think so. The Sox aren't shelling out 25-30 million to either Baez or Simien and thats what they EACH will want.

[Old Red]

He had a better year in 2019, but I agree. I keep mentioning him, because I know Bloom was interested in him, last winter.

 

I think out best target, other than pitching, is Baez. He may be the cheapest of all the "top" SSs and has a nice glove.

 

The GG winning SS can play 2B and 3B, too.

 

From 2018-2021, he put up these numbers on offense:

 

.270/.311/.508/.819

 

Per 650 PAs

.270 33 100 (82 XBH/ 17 SB)

 

As a comp:

Bogey .299 28 104 (74 XBH/ 7 SB)

Correa .266 27 98 (60 XBH/2 SB)

T Story .281 32 91 (77 XBH/ 25 SB)

Semien .264 27 80 (68 XBH/ 11 SB)

Seager .224 29 92 (61 XBH/ 4 SB)

 

 

Lots of hopes, and wishes, but after listening to Sam Kennedy the other day I See the Sox doing things the way they did last off season, which is no big signings, and more Rule 5, and bargain basement shopping. I would be surprised if E Rod gets resigned, or Schwaber for that matter unless JD opts out. Bogey getting an extension I think is pretty much up in the air, but no way if he wants his 20 million increased to around 30 million. Same with Raffy, which I don’t see any 10 yr 300 million contracts for anybody in the Sox future. Just my opinion, and I hope I’m wrong on this.

[moonslav59]

And just like that, Raffy is a major league outfielder? I don't think so. The Sox aren't shelling out 25-30 million to either Baez or Simien and thats what they EACH will want.

 

I doubt Biaz makes $25M a year, but he may get close.

 

I doubt they sign a SS, too.

 

We have bigger priorities.

 

The only things in favor of a signing is the Bogey can opt out in a year, this season is loaded with top SSs, and the last one to sign might not make all that much, AND we could use a FT 2Bman.

 

I'd rather we spend on pitching, but if we do spend big on an everyday player, I'd prefer Baez to Schwarber or an OF'er.

[moonslav59]

Lots of hopes, and wishes, but after listening to Sam Kennedy the other day I See the Sox doing things the way they did last off season, which is no big signings, and more Rule 5, and bargain basement shopping. I would be surprised if E Rod gets resigned, or Schwaber for that matter unless JD opts out. Bogey getting an extension I think is pretty much up in the air, but no way if he wants his 20 million increased to around 30 million. Same with Raffy, which I don’t see any 10 yr 300 million contracts for anybody in the Sox future. Just my opinion, and I hope I’m wrong on this.

 

I'm not hoping we sign any of these guys.

 

I want us to sign Iggy and spend every other penny of our spending budget on pitching, pitching, pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

We may not see anything happen until the new CBA gets done, and that sounds like a big problem in itself.

[Old Red]

I'm not hoping we sign any of these guys.

 

I want us to sign Iggy and spend every other penny of our spending budget on pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

I’m with you on that, and pitching is the biggest need.

[Old Red]

We may not see anything happen until the new CBA gets done, and that sounds like a big problem in itself.

 

Agree, and this could be a long drawn out process, and wouldn’t surprise it goes into spring training, or beyond.

[moonslav59]

Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I don't think there will be a major labor dispute that shuts down ST'ing or any part of the season.

 

FA signings may be delayed, but I think both side know the golden goose is pretty fragile, right now.

 

(I know that was said the last time, too.)

[mvp 78]

And just like that, Raffy is a major league outfielder? I don't think so. The Sox aren't shelling out 25-30 million to either Baez or Simien and thats what they EACH will want.

 

Yes, that's how it works.

[mvp 78]

I doubt Biaz makes $25M a year, but he may get close.

 

I doubt they sign a SS, too.

 

We have bigger priorities.

 

The only things in favor of a signing is the Bogey can opt out in a year, this season is loaded with top SSs, and the last one to sign might not make all that much, AND we could use a FT 2Bman.

 

I'd rather we spend on pitching, but if we do spend big on an everyday player, I'd prefer Baez to Schwarber or an OF'er.

 

Baez shouldn't make more than $15 AAV IMO. 25 is a massive overpay.

[mvp 78]

I'm not hoping we sign any of these guys.

 

I want us to sign Iggy and spend every other penny of our spending budget on pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

Which pitching? You don't want Stroman. There's not a whole lot left.

[mvp 78]

Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I don't think there will be a major labor dispute that shuts down ST'ing or any part of the season.

 

FA signings may be delayed, but I think both side know the golden goose is pretty fragile, right now.

 

(I know that was said the last time, too.)

 

Since everyone is expecting FA to be delayed, I wonder if there is a GM or 2 who is going to swoop in and try to sign guys early.

[notin]

Baez shouldn't make more than $15 AAV IMO. 25 is a massive overpay.

 

Javier Baez is nearly 29, has 2 All Star games, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and been worth 17.5 fWAR in 6 seasons. Didi Grigorius has no hardware, no All Star games and been worth only 1.4 fWAR more in two more seasons and got $14mill. I think Baez is going to top $15mill easily. $25-30 is a stretch, but not an unrealistic one...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agree, and this could be a long drawn out process, and wouldn’t surprise it goes into spring training, or beyond.

 

Then we'll have nothing to blab about... except nostalgia. Meanwhile, we've got about a month before the current pact runs out and they officially declare war.

 

Regarding Baez: I'm just not keen on adding yet another swing-from-the-heels K-man to a lineup we'd all like to see make more contact. Baez led the MLB in strikeouts this year with 184. He whiffed every 2.7 at bats. For the '21 Sox regulars, Dalbec was the worst, fanning every 2.67 ABs. Next was Schwarbs 3.4, Arroyo 3.7, JD 3.8, Hunter 4.0, Devers 4.1, Kike 4.61, X 4.68, Vaz 5.4, and Boston's top contact man: Verdugo 5.6.

 

Houston had five guys (or over half their batting order) as good or better than Beantown's best: Brantley 8.8, Gurriel 7.7, Altuve 6.6, Bregman 6.5, Tucker 5.6; Brantley, Gurriel and Bregman were also the toughest to punch out at their positions in the bigs.

 

Other shortstops' K/AB: Tatis 3.12, Adames 3.18, Story 3.7, BCrawford 4.6, Bichette 4.67, (Bogie 4.68), Lindor 4.70, Correa 4.78, Seager 5.3, Turner 5.4, Simmons 6.6, Kiner=Falefa 7.0, Wander Franco 7.59 (probably not available at this time). The best by far was Kevin Newman from Pittsburgh: 12.6. Newman!

[notin]

Which pitching? You don't want Stroman. There's not a whole lot left.

 

The Sox will trade Bogaerts to St. Louis for LHSP Matt Liberatore (former Bloom draft pick) and SS Paul DeJong. There you go. A new SP not named Stroman...

[mvp 78]

Javier Baez is nearly 29, has 2 All Star games, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and been worth 17.5 fWAR in 6 seasons. Didi Grigorius has no hardware, no All Star games and been worth only 1.4 fWAR more in two more seasons and got $14mill. I think Baez is going to top $15mill easily. $25-30 is a stretch, but not an unrealistic one...

 

Gregorious - 18.9 fWAR, Steamer 2022 92 WRC+

Baez - 17.5 fWAR, Steamer 2022 92 WRC+

 

Considering Gregorious' recent injury streak, it's impressive that his fWAR is that high. He's a very good player when healthy.

[mvp 78]

The Sox will trade Bogaerts to St. Louis for LHSP Matt Liberatore (former Bloom draft pick) and SS Paul DeJong. There you go. A new SP not named Stroman...

 

Please no.

[moonslav59]

Which pitching? You don't want Stroman. There's not a whole lot left.

 

I'd give ERod his QO, and no, I would not pay Stroman, Glausman or R Ray large and long. If we can get one on a shorter deal, okay.

 

I'm thinking get an older pitcher, since they won't demand and get a long term deal. Scherzer's dead arm scares me, but there are others.

 

We need 3-4 pitchers and may only have $30-40M to spend after signing Iggy. If we spend $18.5M on ERod, then the rest will be spent on $4-8M pitchers.