A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Tedballgame]

The pitchers that can go 6-7 cost $30M.

 

Not necessarily. Charlie Morton is one good example. Pivetta is at that stage. Eventually, a team has to develop its own pitching that it can control for 7 years while getting production.

[moonslav59]

Not necessarily. Charlie Morton is one good example. Pivetta is at that stage. Eventually, a team has to develop its own pitching that it can control for 7 years while getting production.

 

Morton has never gone over 195 IP and has gone over 158 just twice.

 

Pivetta might not be a good example, even if Cora would stop yanking him.

 

The 3rd time through rule is dominating, and it's for good reason...

 

Pivetta:

 

.700 first time

.641 second time

1.011 third time (119 PAs is rather significant)

Edited October 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Morton has never gone over 195 IP and has gone over 158 just twice.

 

Pivetta might not be a good example, even if Cora would stop yanking him.

 

The 3rd time through rule is dominating, and it's for good reason...

 

Pivetta:

 

.700 first time

.641 second time

1.011 third time (119 PAs is rather significant)

 

I get this but here is the problem.

 

Those numbers first two times encompass the entire opposing lineup - all 9 hitters including the weakest ones.

 

Now for the third time through, it’s probably mostly the top of the lineup, where the better hitters reside.

 

So yes, he gets easier to hit. He’s undoubtedly tired, but the comparisons are not so straightforward…

[dgalehouse]

I look for the Sox to be contenders next season. But there are some holes to fill . Other teams are getting better. Boston has to keep improving to stay up there.

[Old Red]

Morton has never gone over 195 IP and has gone over 158 just twice.

 

Pivetta might not be a good example, even if Cora would stop yanking him.

 

The 3rd time through rule is dominating, and it's for good reason...

 

Pivetta:

 

.700 first time

.641 second time

1.011 third time (119 PAs is rather significant)

 

Do you think the third time through is because the batter is seeing the pitcher for the third time, or do you think it is because of the pitch count, and the pitcher is wearing down, or a combination of both?

[notin]

My thoughts:

 

1. Duran will be dealt for a SP. Probably someone from Oakland. BTV values him roughly equal to Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, but I believe both have one year of control left. Frankie Montas would be preferable.

2. Lou Trivino is a good target for the bullpen for the same reason.

3. I do like the idea of signing Chris Taylor for 2b. Presumably he would come closer to an Enrique Hernandez type deal than the SS Crowd, many of whom will be benchmarking Francisco Lindor’s contract.

4. JD returns. Schwarber moves on. Dalbec and eventually Casas handle 1b…

[notin]

Do you think the third time through is because the batter is seeing the pitcher for the third time, or do you think it is because of the pitch count, and the pitcher is wearing down, or a combination of both?

 

Or because the first two trips through the order also include the weaker 8th and 9th place hitters?

 

Answer - all three. No question about it…

[harmony]

My thoughts:

 

1. Duran will be dealt for a SP. Probably someone from Oakland. BTV values him roughly equal to Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, but I believe both have one year of control left. Frankie Montas would be preferable.

2. Lou Trivino is a good target for the bullpen for the same reason.

3. I do like the idea of signing Chris Taylor for 2b. Presumably he would come closer to an Enrique Hernandez type deal than the SS Crowd, many of whom will be benchmarking Francisco Lindor’s contract.

4. JD returns. Schwarber moves on. Dalbec and eventually Casas handle 1b…

Baseball Trade Values is likely to downgrade Jarred Duran after the now 25-year-old posted a negative 0.5 fWAR in only 33 games.

 

The ZiPS three-year projections have Duran at 0.4, 0.6 and 0.5 fWAR in 540+ plate appearances in each of the next three seasons.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

Duran is unlikely to land Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea.

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values is likely to downgrade Jarred Duran after the now 25-year-old posted a negative 0.5 fWAR in only 33 games.

 

The ZiPS three-year projections have Duran at 0.4, 0.6 and 0.5 fWAR in 540+ plate appearances in each of the next three seasons.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

Duran is unlikely to land Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea.

 

Don't be surprised, if it doesn't dip by as much as you expect.

 

33 games is just 33 games, and his farm numbers were very good.

 

Nobody is thinking Duran straight up for Montas.

[moonslav59]

Do you think the third time through is because the batter is seeing the pitcher for the third time, or do you think it is because of the pitch count, and the pitcher is wearing down, or a combination of both?

 

I'd like to think most pitchers have enough stamina to face more than 18 batters, so it's probably the hitter's advantage more than the other.

 

I'm wondering what's next? The pitchers being removed after one time through?

 

Maybe staffs will become 9 pitchers who go 3 innings every 3 days and 4 short inning guys.

[moonslav59]

I meant which team wants to do that?

 

 

...

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values is likely to downgrade Jarred Duran after the now 25-year-old posted a negative 0.5 fWAR in only 33 games.

 

The ZiPS three-year projections have Duran at 0.4, 0.6 and 0.5 fWAR in 540+ plate appearances in each of the next three seasons.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

 

Duran is unlikely to land Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea.

 

It accepted this as a "minor overpay" by the Sox:

 

Duran, Downs & Dalbec

for

Montas & Trivino

 

If we sign Schwarber, we'd barely miss any of the 3-Ds, or if Casas rises quickly, we'll never miss the slow starting Dalbec.

 

(BTW, it's only 2 years of team control for Montas and 1 for Bassit & Manaea, so that's something to think about.)

 

The A's don't really need Dalbec, but BTV accepted this trade, too:

 

Bogey, Duran, Downs & Vaz

for

Montas, Soderstrom, Piscotty, Andrus & Trivino

 

(Piscotty & Andrus help to balance some of the cost of Bogey's contract.)

Edited October 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Do you think the third time through is because the batter is seeing the pitcher for the third time, or do you think it is because of the pitch count, and the pitcher is wearing down, or a combination of both?

 

Mostly it's the 3d time. Fatigue shouldn't figure if its 70 pitches or less.

 

Indeed, despite your very low opinion of Cora, one of his very neat adjustments this season was in using several long relievers--Valdez, Whitlock, Richards, Houck, Pivetta, and even Perez a couple of times. Pivetta even did it twice, 4 innings and 4.2 innings, just 3 days apart in the ALDS. He threw 73 pitches on Oct 7 and 67 pitches on Oct 10.

 

While moonslav's stats on Pivetta are convincing, I too think that MLB managers these days are too willing to pull their starter simply because it's the 3d time.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[oldtimer]

I believe it makes sense to identify the problem areas the team faces before jumping directly to trades and FA signings. The areas talked about during the second half and in the playoffs, particularly the ALCS were:

 

1. Lack of defense in the field. The Sox were one of the worst teams in that category.

2. Lack of production and flexibility with our utility players. The Sox went through a bunch of options, all were weak, including at the end.

3. Starting pitching depth issues. With Pivetta, Sale and D-Rod coming on in the end.

4. BP issues with fill-ins. It was improving in the end but everyone has trouble with BP arms.

5. Shocking lack of hitting in the ALCS. Preparation and adjustments were not adequate. Why?

 

Defense:

i thought Devers, Bogaerts and Arroyo played stellar defense in the infield although analytics driven positioning is not a favorite of mine and may be legislated back in future. Verdugo and Kike were mainstays in the outfield. One of our problems was trying to find a way to place both Martinez and Schwaber on the roster at the same time. Neither are good defenders. It would have been magnified had we reached the WS. Renfroe was a so-so right fielder with a great arm. Clearly, going back to a single DH candidate is a good idea, whoever that turns out to be. Consideration of improvements at 1st base and right field would be in order from a defensive perspective.

 

Utility:

We wound up with Santana, Shaw and Dalbec after a season of many changes who did not work out and are gone now. We need an outfielder, and probably two infielders with a backup catcher. I look to our minors for most of those. Possibly our utility players can come from R-Hern at catcher, Casas at first, Arroyo for middle infield and Duran (despite the negativity about him, he only got into relatively few games and those were dispersed. Imagine the criticism had he dropped the ball in center that Kike misplayed last night). Moving Arroyo back to utility suggests a strong second base addition.

 

Starting pitching:

Eovaldi had a fine year. Pivetta came on and looked like a guy who can handle a starter role. The best news is that Sale looked better and better during the ALCS. If we can get a QO to E_Rod and we get the good guy back, we probably cannot do better for reasonable money. Houck needs to develop a third and perhaps 4th pitch and Seabold is in the wings. Starting pitching did not appear to be such a glaring problem at the end but we can always use a top starter, particularly if E-Rod goes.

 

BP:

We have some deadwood on our 40 man that needs to be replaced and perhaps Matt Barnes looms as a concern going forward. Losing some high expense pitching contracts should give Bloom room to maneuver in the offseason.

 

Hitting:

Hard to believe we were unable to put up so little offense in the last 3 ALCS games. None of our hitters did well. Preparation for the games and adjustments during the games were inadequate. We had no one hitting opposite from the shift and what appeared to be a lot of strikeouts chasing and a lot of popups when we were swinging for the fences. The need is to look at our pregame preparation and changing how we go about that. It wouldn't hurt to replace our strikeout kings with contacts hitters who can get on base. The Astros had some of those.

 

I post my ideas for roster changes separately.

[Nick]

The pitchers that can go 6-7 cost $30M.

 

I'm willing to give Whitlock a shot at going 6-7 innings while only making $1M.

[moonslav59]

I'm willing to give Whitlock a shot at going 6-7 innings while only making $1M.

 

First, a shot at 4-5 innings.

[moonslav59]

Three Things First

 

1. The first big news we will likely be hearing is JD's opt out choice. He has to choose shortly after the WS ends. He'll make $19.35M in 2022, if he chooses to stay. He won't get that per year, if he opts out, but this might be his best and last chance to get a multiple year deal with more guaranteed money overall.

 

For the longest time, I thought he would not opt out, but now I think it is close to 50-50. The chances of an NL DH won't be known when he chooses, but that may be a factor.

 

He's on the backside of his career, but the guy can still rake, and his work ethic is something that rubs off on teammates. I never really felt like 2020 was long enough to make a judgement on JD's decline, and I think 2021 seemed more in line with the expected decline of a hitter as he goes beyond 31 and 32 years old. Plenty of players have shown they can keep pretty steady after 32-33 years old, and one might think JD would be one of them, but it's hard to tell.

 

If we just throw out 2020, his decline looks slow but not too steep:

 

1.066 2017

1.031 2018

.939 in 2019

.867 in 2021

One might expect something like .800 in 2022. That'spretty good, but not really all that great for a DH making over $19M.

 

I've been on record as preferring Schwarber to JD, if he opts out or if we can trade him with some cash, if he doesn't, but I'm not sure trading him is really a realistic option.

 

2. To offer ERod a QO or not? This is both the team's choice to offer, and ERod's choice to accept or not. I've been a big ERod supporter over the years, because he's a winner, but the whole COVID complications thing is still worrisome. He struggled out of the gate, but did much better over his last 17 starts and then in the playoffs. No other Sox starter got hit so hard by the defense, at least in terms of BAbip (.364 vs .301 career before 2021.)

 

Personally, I'd offer him the QO, but I would not be all that upset, if he said no. We'd get a comp pick and have the $18.5M to spend on another pitcher(s). I have no idea if we'll offer the QO, or if ERod accepts or decline.

 

3. The $7M Vaz option seems like a no brainer, and I am near certain we give it to Vaz. I'm not so certain we keep or trade him, but I'm likely in a minority. Watching Maldy go something like 2 of 40 but lead his broken staff to success after success makes me think we can do better. The other options, Richards and Perez are no brainer "NOs!"

 

Further moves depend on these three situations.

[Deja Doh]

The problem for the Red Sox is OBP. Too many guys not getting on base: Franchy Cordova, Marwin Gonzales, Danny Santana, and Jonathan Arauz should be looking for new job. Terrible is a good word for them. Bobby D and Jarren D either need to figure out how to get on base or they are done after 2022. While I don't mind Christian Arroyo, he needs to learn from Schwarber and figure out the strike zone. He needs to improve his OBP or he's done. And while everyone loves Devers, and he's good, he needs to seriously raise his anemic OBP (overall it's just 0.338). At this point he's a below average player. Lots of big swings, lots of swings and misses (at this point he's more like Cecil Cooper). Think Jim Rice at 0.352 is low. Dwight Evans was more elite at 0.370

[moonslav59]

The problem for the Red Sox is OBP. Too many guys not getting on base: Franchy Cordova, Marwin Gonzales, Danny Santana, and Jonathan Arauz should be looking for new job. Terrible is a good word for them. Bobby D and Jarren D either need to figure out how to get on base or they are done after 2022. While I don't mind Christian Arroyo, he needs to learn from Schwarber and figure out the strike zone. He needs to improve his OBP or he's done. And while everyone loves Devers, and he's good, he needs to seriously raise his anemic OBP (overall it's just 0.338). At this point he's a below average player. Lots of big swings, lots of swings and misses (at this point he's more like Cecil Cooper). Think Jim Rice at 0.352 is low. Dwight Evans was more elite at 0.370

 

It's kind of surprising to me how OBP kind of fell out of favor. It was all the rage, not long ago- along with driving up pitch counts on SP'ers.

 

I would not be so harsh on Dalbec. He has not even reached 550 career PAs, yet. While I agree he needs to improve on it, a .308 career MLB OBP is not such a bad start. Also, his minor league OBP was .362, so I'm hoping he can get it over .325 or .330, soon. If you project his 545 MLB PAs to 650, this would be Dalbec's first MLB season:

 

.243 40 122 (.819 OPS)

 

There is hope we can improve on what we got from our utility players and young players that struggled out of the gate.

 

.207 Chavis (82 PAs)

.237 Cordero (136 PAs)

.241 Duran (112)

.252 Santana (127)

.274 Arauz (75) I have not given up on him yet

.281 Marwin (271- way too many PAs before giving upon him)

 

That's like 800 PAs of futility.

 

Too bad we didn't have Iggy and Shaw earlier.

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com's list of top 25 FAs:

1. Correa

2. Seager

3. Bryant

4. Scherzer (no mention of dead arm)

5. Story

6. Semien

7. R Ray

8. Baez

9. Freeman

10. Gausman

11. Stroman

12. S Marte

13. Castellanos

14. Schwarber

15. Rodon

16. Syndergaard (Hmmm?)

17. Verlander

18. Kershaw

19. JD Martinez

20. Conforto

21. Belt

22. C Taylor

23. Rizzo

24. N Cruz

25. R Iglesias

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Some thoughts on the potential 2022 40 man rostery

 

Catchers:

We pick up the club option on Vazquez. I don't see possible replacements on the market. Whether we stick with Plawecki (he is okay) or try moving R. Hernandez as a backup is okay with me. We should try and draft a young catcher, while keeping Wong in the minors but on the 40 man.

 

 

Infield:

We keep Devers and he plays 3rd. I agree that he needs to accept coaching regarding plate discipline and overswinging to further improve his value. Please stop chewing tobacco for your own health considerations. We also keep Bogaerts at short. Both he and Devers have had defensive shortcomings, but 2022 is not the year to move either. I see Arroyo as a very competent defensive 2nd baseman. He can hit enough to be FT but if we could find better, he would make an excellent utility infielder.

 

The use of Schwaber at 1st should end except in an emergency, in the event we choose to sign him. Dalbec has shortcomings defensively but he is better than Schwaber. Dalbec was not trusted during the championship series due to his tendency to strike out. We could look at the FA market and try to pick up Brandon belt and trade Dalbec, or do the same but keep him as a utility player. Casas being in the wings should be a consideration.

 

I would cut Shaw loose while keeping Arauz and Potts in the minors and on the 40 man.

 

Outfielders:

We had two very solid outfielders in Kike and Verdugo and should build on them. Renfroe is okay but his strikeout rate leaves me looking for alternatives. Signing a FA like Starling Marte for CF and moving Kike to right would significantly improve our outfield. Bringing Duran up for utility and trying to further develop Rosario would give us flexibility. I would trade Renfroe for whatever he would bring. Our DH can be an emergency outfielder

 

BP:

Starting with who I would not renew on our staff. Perez, Richards, Davis, Ottavino. That creates a pool of money for Bloom to go after iglasias, who I view as the best high leverage reliever on the market. I see Barnes (risk until proven otherwise), Brasier, D,Hern, Robles, Sawamura, Taylor, Whitlock in the pen, leaving room for one of our minor league prospects to make the grade.

 

SP:

Eovaldi is a lock. Don't overuse him. Sale showed himself to be coming on. Pivetta is a quality 3rd starter. With Houck, he needs to develop a 3rd and possibly 4th pitch to really make the grade. He also needs to cut down on non-competitive pitches (throw strikes) to last more innings. To me, starters should be left in until they show signs of fatiguing.I am ambivalent on a QO to E-Rod. We could do worse. Seabold lurks in the minors as a possible starter. If we lose E-Rod we will need to sign a FA starter or try to trade pieces for one. Gausman?

[jacksonianmarch]

OBP has not fallen out of favor, the issue with OBP is lots of guys sold out for it and live by the three true outcome rule. While they reached base 35% of the time, they also K’d 30% of the time and are train wrecks on rallies

[Bellhorn04]

OBP has not fallen out of favor, the issue with OBP is lots of guys sold out for it and live by the three true outcome rule. While they reached base 35% of the time, they also K’d 30% of the time and are train wrecks on rallies

 

And Cashman loves those guys. He probably wept with joy when he made the trade for Gallo.

[moonslav59]

My responses to oldtimer:

 

Nice job.

 

Catchers:

We pick up the club option on Vazquez. I don't see possible replacements on the market. Whether we stick with Plawecki (he is okay) or try moving R. Hernandez as a backup is okay with me. We should try and draft a young catcher, while keeping Wong in the minors but on the 40 man.

 

Manny Pena (34) might be a nice replacement for Plawecki. Watching Maldanado really makes me think we might do better with a staff friendly starting catcher.

 

Infield:

We keep Devers and he plays 3rd. I agree that he needs to accept coaching regarding plate discipline and overswinging to further improve his value. Please stop chewing tobacco for your own health considerations.

I'm not sure I try to mess with Devers' approach. Sometimes, it seems better to have varying approaches by your line-up. Agree on the tobacco and staying at 3B. More work on footwork and throwing is his biggest need.

 

We also keep Bogaerts at short. Both he and Devers have had defensive shortcomings, but 2022 is not the year to move either.

The opt out worries me.

 

I see Arroyo as a very competent defensive 2nd baseman. He can hit enough to be FT but if we could find better, he would make an excellent utility infielder.

I'm not sure he can play 150 games, so maybe he should be viewed as utility. (Sign Iggy or go big with a SS/2B like Baez or Semien?)

 

The use of Schwaber at 1st should end except in an emergency, in the event we choose to sign him.

He seemed to improve a lot over just a month. It took Dalbec a couple years to get close to respectability at 1B.

 

Dalbec has shortcomings defensively but he is better than Schwaber. Dalbec was not trusted during the championship series due to his tendency to strike out. We could look at the FA market and try to pick up Brandon belt and trade Dalbec, or do the same but keep him as a utility player. Casas being in the wings should be a consideration.

I'm not sure about Dalbec's trade value, but I'd listen to offers. I like Casas, but like Duran, you can never plan on instant help from a prospect.

 

I would cut Shaw loose while keeping Arauz and Potts in the minors and on the 40 man.

Shaw is a FA. I think Potts is going to be DFA'd. Arauz is a bubble DFA/trade.

 

Outfielders:

We had two very solid outfielders in Kike and Verdugo and should build on them.

Agreed.

 

Renfroe is okay but his strikeout rate leaves me looking for alternatives.

It's not the Ks that bother me. I'd take 100 over just 1 GIDP. His arm saved his D from being pretty bad. He might be best used as a platoon.

 

Signing a FA like Starling Marte for CF and moving Kike to right would significantly improve our outfield. Bringing Duran up for utility and trying to further develop Rosario would give us flexibility. I would trade Renfroe for whatever he would bring. Our DH can be an emergency outfielder.

I'm not sure we have the finances or assets to make major improvements to our OF. It's not really close to be our weakest area, but it is not deep and has isues, agreed.

 

BP:

Starting with who I would not renew on our staff. Perez, Richards, Davis, Ottavino. That creates a pool of money for Bloom to go after iglasias, who I view as the best high leverage reliever on the market. I see Barnes (risk until proven otherwise), Brasier, D,Hern, Robles, Sawamura, Taylor, Whitlock in the pen, leaving room for one of our minor league prospects to make the grade.

Robles is a FA. Davis is not.

 

SP:

Eovaldi is a lock. Don't overuse him. Sale showed himself to be coming on. Pivetta is a quality 3rd starter. With Houck, he needs to develop a 3rd and possibly 4th pitch to really make the grade. He also needs to cut down on non-competitive pitches (throw strikes) to last more innings. To me, starters should be left in until they show signs of fatiguing.

In theory, that sounds great, but when you look at the massive disparities between the numbers of pitchers with great stats 1st and 2nd time through a line-up and then getting shelled the 3rd time through, I have to change my way of thinking and go with the times- like it or not.

Our staff in 2021

.743 1st time through the line up

.715 2nd time

.900 3rd time

(Perez was our best .673, followed by Eovaldi .780, Sale .819, Richards .924, Pivetta 1.011, ERod 1.016 & Houck 1.489)

 

I am ambivalent on a QO to E-Rod. We could do worse. Seabold lurks in the minors as a possible starter. If we lose E-Rod we will need to sign a FA starter or try to trade pieces for one. Gausman?

I worry about paying large and long for guys like Gausman, Stroman and R Ray.

[moonslav59]

OBP has not fallen out of favor, the issue with OBP is lots of guys sold out for it and live by the three true outcome rule. While they reached base 35% of the time, they also K’d 30% of the time and are train wrecks on rallies

 

Were there really that many guys that got on base over 35% and even K'd 25%, let alone 30%?

 

Of the top 50 OBP guys, this year (all over .349), here are the players with K rates over 25%:

34.6% Gallo (45th in OBP)

31.3% O'Neill (41st in OBP)

29.6% Ohtani

28.1% Arozarena

28.0% Tatis

27.1% Stanton

25.5% Moncada

25.4% A Riley

25.2% N Lowe

25.0% Judge

 

None of the top 40 have a K% above 30%.

[moonslav59]

And Cashman loves those guys. He probably wept with joy when he made the trade for Gallo.

 

Yes, Cashman has 3 of the top 10 guys with high OBP and K%. (See RED on my list)

[Tedballgame]

Cashman shouldn't be the GM of anything. Unlimited resources and can't get to the WS since 2009.

[Tedballgame]

Schwarber wants to return to the Sox next year. Will he? I don't know but I hope so. No matter what happens, I will always be a Kyle Schwarber fan based on what he did for the Red Sox this year.

[notin]

Schwarber wants to return to the Sox next year. Will he? I don't know but I hope so. No matter what happens, I will always be a Kyle Schwarber fan based on what he did for the Red Sox this year.

 

If he really wants to return to Boston, he can simply exercise his player half of his mutual option rather than making statements about it to the press…

[moonslav59]

If he really wants to return to Boston, he can simply exercise his player half of his mutual option rather than making statements about it to the press…

 

That would make a statement.