A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

True, and hopefully one or two pans out or leads to something else.

 

Even if none work out, the money saved got us Renfroe and Sawamura.

[moonslav59]

Looking at potential pitching free agents that hang’em Chaim could sign this offseason is really interesting. We have a huge opportunity to upgrade the rotation and the bullpen,

 

We may trade for a good one.

[moonslav59]

I could see us doing something like this:

 

1. Sign ERod

2. Extend Devers

3. Sign Baez.

4. Trade Duran & Downs for Montas.

5. Look into trading Bogey for a young arm.

6. Keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

[jgar658]

I could see us doing something like this:

 

1. Sign ERod

2. Extend Devers

3. Sign Baez.

4. Trade Duran & Downs for Montas.

5. Look into trading Bogey for a young arm.

6. Keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

 

I would think both Whitlock and Houck could be starters. It is much easier to look for good relievers.

Is there a ready to go SS prospect in the farm?

[Nick]

I would think both Whitlock and Houck could be starters. It is much easier to look for good relievers.

Is there a ready to go SS prospect in the farm?

 

I 100% agree with you.

 

With our history of having not produced starting pitchers, you would think Moon would want every pitcher that has opportunity to start in majors given chance to start.

 

Yet he's more inclined to keep Whitlock in the pen and go spend for another Richards.

 

He keeps straddling the fence.

 

See I have no trouble saying it. Give Whitlock chance to start AND FIND HIS REPLACEMENT IN THE PEN.

[Bellhorn04]

I 100% agree with you.

 

With our history of having not produced starting pitchers, you would think Moon would want every pitcher that has opportunity to start in majors given chance to start.

 

Yet he's more inclined to keep Whitlock in the pen and go spend for another Richards.

 

He keeps straddling the fence.

 

See I have no trouble saying it. Give Whitlock chance to start AND FIND HIS REPLACEMENT IN THE PEN.

 

Whether Whitlock starts or is in the pen, it makes sense to acquire another starter.

 

Yes, Bloom missed on Richards, but so what. Every GM has misses. Bloom has more hits than misses.

[moonslav59]

I would think both Whitlock and Houck could be starters. It is much easier to look for good relievers.

Is there a ready to go SS prospect in the farm?

 

Yes, both could be starters, and that will likely be one of this winter and next seasons biggest debate.

 

IMO, getting good RP'er on the market is too hit and miss.

 

I know starters do not have a much better track record, but I just hate spending big on RP'ers.

 

Our 40 man roster is too deep now to go the quantity route in hopes 2 or 3 out of the 7 you sign come through. We don't have that "luxury" anymore.

 

IMO, we will have 4, maybe 5, slots to fill by trade or FA signings. We can't use those slots on 5 low cost RP'ers. We need a utility infielder and another starter, even if we put Houck and Whitlock into the rotation. That's 2 of the 4-5 slots, right there.

 

Bloom will have to do better than a few Andrieses at $3M.

[moonslav59]

The 40 Man Roster for 2022 (Before any trades or additions and assuming all free agents to be become FAs)

 

Obvious (26):

Bogey

Barnes

Sale

Devers

Brasier

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo

Valdez

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Bazardo

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Sawamura

Ro. Hernandez

Duran

Davis

 

Options:

Vaz YES (#27)

Richards NO

Perez NO

 

Player Options/Opt Outs:

JD Martinez 50-50 (28?)

Schwarber OPTs OUT

 

QO:

ERod (Offer- YES, Accepts- 50-50) (#28 or #29?)

 

Rule 5: (6 players likely)

Bello

Crawford

Downs

Feltman

Santos

Winckowski

 

That's 33-35 Players Total (JD & ERod unknown).

We can add 5-7 players from outside the organization or keep some of these bubble players:

 

Bubble:

Arauz

Plawecki (arb)

Rosario

Potts

F German (Rule 5)

G Jimenez (Rule 5)

K Ort (Rule 5)

T Ward (Rule 5)

 

No More Team Control:

Ottavino

Santana

Robles

Shaw

Iggy (already DFA'd)

 

 

[moonslav59]

If you think getting RP'er through free agency is a good idea, here is the record or recent season signings: (I'm not leaving anyone out. This is the complete list of the RP'er getting more than $5M.

 

2020-2021

$54M/3 Hendriks 71 IP, 0.732 WHIP, 2.54 ERA,

$17.5M/2 Treinen 72 IP, 0.982, 1.99

$15.5M/2 T May 63, 1.261. 3.59

$12.5M/2 P Baez 4 IP

$11M/1 Rosenthal 0 IP

$10.5M/1 B Hand 43. 1.148, 3.59 (was DFA'd)

$7M/2 K Giles 0 IP

$6.3M/1 A Colome 65 IP, 1.400, 4.15

$6.0M/1 A Bradley 51, 1.431, 3.71

$5.5M/1 K Yates 0 IP

$5.0M/1 A Bass 61, 1.288, 3.82

$5.0M/1 J McGee 60, 0.905, 2.72

$5.2M/2 J Wilson 34, 1.412, 5.29

 

19-20

$40M/3 W Smith (14 IP then 68, 1.095, 3.64)

$34M/4 Pomeranz (19 IP then 26, 1.083, 1.62)

$24M/3 W Harris (18 & 6 IP. 1.609, 4.56))

$14M/2 C Martin

$11M/2 D Hudson

$10.5/1 Betances

$10M/1 Treinen

$9M/2 Stammen

$9M/1 Glausman

$8M/2 Smith

$7.5M/2 Diekman

$6.4M/2 Yamaguchi

$6M/1 Cishek

$5.0M/1 Romo

$5.5M/2 J Rodriguez

$5.0M/2 P Johnson

 

18-19

$43M/3 Kimbrel 96IP in 3 yrs, 1.139, 3.67

$39M/3 Britton 99 IP in 3, 1.216, 2.65

$30M/3 Familia 146 IP, 1.555, 4.62

$27M/3 Ottavino

$25M/2 A Miller

$25M/3 J Kelly

$23M/3 D Robertson

$18M/2 Herrera

$15M/2 Soria

$10M/2 J Wilson

$9M/1 Cahil

$8.5/1 Cody Allen

$8M/2 J Chavez

$7M/1 D Holland

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

It will be good to revisit recommendations for Redsox offseason moves after watching the ALCS.

[notin]

I could see us doing something like this:

 

1. Sign ERod

2. Extend Devers

3. Sign Baez.

4. Trade Duran & Downs for Montas.

5. Look into trading Bogey for a young arm.

6. Keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

 

I prefer keeping Bogaerts over signing Baez. Hopefully they can extend Bogaerts.

 

I don’t think it will be a remarkably active off-season despite the lackluster finish. Hopefully add a starter or two (possibly ERod as one?) and get a 2b and an arm or two in the pen. I do agree that keeping Houck and Whitlock both in the pen is key.

 

And please Bloom, do NOT bring back Martin Perez…

[moonslav59]

I prefer keeping Bogaerts over signing Baez. Hopefully they can extend Bogaerts.

 

I don’t think it will be a remarkably active off-season despite the lackluster finish. Hopefully add a starter or two (possibly ERod as one?) and get a 2b and an arm or two in the pen. I do agree that keeping Houck and Whitlock both in the pen is key.

 

And please Bloom, do NOT bring back Martin Perez…

 

If I had to guess, I doubt anything really major is done, but I do see a few significant moves being made. Last winter, our biggest moves were:

 

$10M Richards

$8M Ottavino trade

$7M x 2 Kike

$6M Perez

Beni Trade

 

The little ones worked okay, including Renfroe & Whitlock.

 

Since I think we have less holes to fill, this winter, and as much money to spend as last winter, we should be able to spend more per player, this year.

 

Let's hope Bloom does his homework.

[moonslav59]

I prefer keeping Bogaerts over signing Baez. Hopefully they can extend Bogaerts.

 

I don’t think it will be a remarkably active off-season despite the lackluster finish. Hopefully add a starter or two (possibly ERod as one?) and get a 2b and an arm or two in the pen. I do agree that keeping Houck and Whitlock both in the pen is key.

 

And please Bloom, do NOT bring back Martin Perez…

 

How much will Baez cost?

 

If you factor in trading Bogey for a decent pitcher, it might amount to Bogey vs Baez + a good pitcher and a little more cash.

[notin]

How much will Baez cost?

 

If you factor in trading Bogey for a decent pitcher, it might amount to Bogey vs Baez + a good pitcher and a little more cash.

 

 

Duran will bring back a better pitcher, and the Sox don’t need to replace him. (Although I get dealing Bogaerts is a pre-emptive strike.)

 

I prefer holding Bogaerts, but as for whether or not Bloom deals him, I can see arguments for and against.

 

However I don’t see him getting dealt for a good pitcher, at least not directly. Any team acquiring one year of Bogaerts is presumably holding on to their pitching…

[Nick]

Whether Whitlock starts or is in the pen, it makes sense to acquire another starter.

 

Yes, Bloom missed on Richards, but so what. Every GM has misses. Bloom has more hits than misses.

 

You are missing the point. Whitlock should be a starter and I have no problem saying it. All of you straddle the fence, as always. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

We complain about not having starters and then turn a possible starter into a reliever. That's just plain stupid.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

You are missing the point. Whitlock should be a starter and I have no problem saying it. All of you straddle the fence, as always. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

I was very, very, very wrong about Kike, especially not leading off.

 

Why should Whitlock be a starter?

 

He’s never thrown more than 120 IP in a season, and even then 40 of those innings came against A ball hitters. And you think he’s ready for 150-180IP against MLB hitters?!?

 

We know he works in the bullpen, but if you move him to the rotation he becomes a question mark, as does the pitcher you replace him with in the bullpen. If the Sox get a starting pitcher and leave him, maybe they have one question mark. Move him and get a reliever, you potentially have two.

 

Am I to draw the conclusion you’re a fan of question marks?

[Bellhorn04]

You are missing the point. Whitlock should be a starter and I have no problem saying it. All of you straddle the fence, as always. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

We complain about not having starters and then turn a possible starter into a reliever. That's just plain stupid.

 

I'm not straddling any fences. I've said my guess is one of the two starts and one stays in the pen. I would agree that Whitlock is probably the best choice to start.

 

Not sure what you're all worked up about. This is all just talk. Bloom will figure it out.

[jgar658]

I'm not straddling any fences. I've said my guess is one of the two starts and one stays in the pen. I would agree that Whitlock is probably the best choice to start.

 

Not sure what you're all worked up about. This is all just talk. Bloom will figure it out.

 

Houck can definitely be a starter.

Whitlock, can easily be groomed to be a starter. he is young and string and already had his TJ surgery.

[Tedballgame]

Pitchers who should be back in 2022:

 

Sale: He will be much improved over this season's version. It takes about 2 years to fully recover form TJ surgery.

Pivetta: Young, cheap and controllable.

Whitlock: See Pivetta

Houck: See Pivetta

Brasier: Still effective and fairly cheap

Taylor: Hey, he's a lefty. Had a good year.

Barnes: Because no one will take him after that extension. Hope he can clear his head. He has to be only a 6th and 7th inning guy. No high pressure situations.

Eovaldi: Because he is the only proven starter.

D-Hern: He is young, cheap and controllable but he doesn't have enough control. He has a lot of work to do this winter. Can't give up on him yet.

Sawamura: One year left on his contract.

 

That leaves 2 or 3 spots. It is crucial that Bloom fills them with difference makers, whether they are starters or relievers. Signing E-Rod may be an option but not if he wants a lot of years at big money. If he does, let him walk.

 

The main thing is to have starters capable of going 6+ innings. This 4 or 5 inning thing will kill the bullpen over the long haul. Pitchers today are such sissies and the teams baby them to the point where they mentally can't go more than 6.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Tedballgame

[moonslav59]

Duran will bring back a better pitcher, and the Sox don’t need to replace him. (Although I get dealing Bogaerts is a pre-emptive strike.)

 

I prefer holding Bogaerts, but as for whether or not Bloom deals him, I can see arguments for and against.

 

However I don’t see him getting dealt for a good pitcher, at least not directly. Any team acquiring one year of Bogaerts is presumably holding on to their pitching…

 

3-way for a pitcher or a a pitching prospect.

 

I doubt we trade Bogey. We might sign Baez and wait to the deadline, too.

[moonslav59]

You are missing the point. Whitlock should be a starter and I have no problem saying it. All of you straddle the fence, as always. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

 

We complain about not having starters and then turn a possible starter into a reliever. That's just plain stupid.

 

I'm fine with Whitlock as a starter and think he'd be better than Houck. I also think Houck could make a great closer. He reminds me of Papelbon.

 

I'd rather keep both where they have proven they can do very very well.

 

No fence. Just a consistent opinion.

[Bellhorn04]

The main thing is to have starters capable of going 6+ innings. This 4 or 5 inning thing will kill the bullpen over the long haul. Pitchers today are such sissies and the teams baby them to the point where they mentally can't go more than 6.

 

Your post was good but I disagree a little with this last part. What we're going to see is more pitchers who can go 2-3 innings, so bullpens will not be killed.

 

I don't really like this part of the game now either, but it's what it is.

[moonslav59]

Pitchers who should be back in 2022:

 

Sale: He will be much improved over this season's version. It takes about 2 years to fully recover form TJ surgery.

Pivetta: Young, cheap and controllable.

Whitlock: See Pivetta

Houck: See Pivetta

Brasier: Still effective and fairly cheap

Taylor: Hey, he's a lefty. Had a good year.

Barnes: Because no one will take him after that extension. Hope he can clear his head. He has to be only a 6th and 7th inning guy. No high pressure situations.

Eovaldi: Because he is the only proven starter.

D-Hern: He is young, cheap and controllable but he doesn't have could enough control. He has a lot of work to do this winter. Can't give up on him yet.

Sawamura: One year left on his contract.

 

That leaves 2 or 3 spots. It is crucial that Bloom fills them with difference makers, whether they are starters or relievers. Signing E-Rod may be an option but not if he wants a lot of years at big money. If he does, let him walk.

 

The main thing is to have starters capable of going 6+ innings. This 4 or 5 inning thing will kill the bullpen over the long haul. Pitchers today are such sissies and the teams baby them to the point where they mentally can't go more than 6.

 

Yes. 2-3 slots to fill, but not the luxury of signing 4-7 pitchers in hopes that 3 stick.

 

Sure, we can sign several minor league contract deals, but we need solid pitching.

 

I'd prefer 2 starters (1 could be ERod) and 1-2 RP'ers, but if we move Whitlock or Houck to starter, we'd reverse those numbers.

 

I do think 90% of our winter budget should go towards pitching.

[moonslav59]

Your post was good but I disagree a little with this last part. What we're going to see is more pitchers who can go 2-3 innings, so bullpens will not be killed.

 

I don't really like this part of the game now either, but it's what it is.

 

The pitchers that can go 6-7 cost $30M.

[Bellhorn04]

The pitchers that can go 6-7 cost $30M.

 

That may change eventually too.

 

Who wants to sign the next Gerrit Cole deal?

[moonslav59]

That may change eventually too.

 

Who wants to sign the next Gerrit Cole deal?

 

Every pitcher?

 

Is this a trick question?

[Bellhorn04]

Every pitcher?

 

Is this a trick question?

 

I meant which team wants to do that?

[Hugh2]

Whoever has the money, that’s who.

[Bellhorn04]

Whoever has the money, that’s who.

 

I don't think Chaim Bloom is going to be signing any pitchers for $324 million.

[Tedballgame]

I don't think Chaim Bloom is going to be signing any pitchers for $324 million.

 

I hope he doesn't. Those rarely, if ever, work out in favor of the team.