A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

I'm riding shotgun.

 

Don't listen to him. He just wants Devers at 1b, nothing more.

[moonslav59]

Re-signing Schwarber would be my 1st priority. Picking up some pitching would be my second.

 

Schwarber basically forces one of these guys to the bench or Kike to 2B for Arroyo:

 

Dalbec

Renfroe

Verdugo

JD

 

While I like him more than any of these guys, the upgrade on O and downgrade on D does not outweigh what the same money going to a new or better pitcher could and should bring us.

 

Let's say Schwarber costs $17M/yr. Think of what a $30M pitcher will bring us vs a $13M pitcher, Isn't that a better upgrade than Schwarber over Dalbec?

[moonslav59]

Don't listen to him. He just wants Devers at 1b, nothing more.

 

Not true.

 

I've mentioned it often, but have usually said he should be given a longer chance.

 

I'd rather move Bogey off SS (to 2B?) than Devers off 3B. Besides, we have a 1Bman with Casas in the wings.

 

Someday, maybe.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Schwarber basically forces one of these guys to the bench or Kike to 2B for Arroyo:

 

Dalbec

Renfroe

Verdugo

JD

 

While I like him more than any of these guys, the upgrade on O and downgrade on D does not outweigh what the same money going to a new or better pitcher could and should bring us.

 

Let's say Schwarber costs $17M/yr. Think of what a $30M pitcher will bring us vs a $13M pitcher, Isn't that a better upgrade than Schwarber over Dalbec?

 

I'm pretty sure Schwarber will be working on playing 1st base during the offseason. Besides his good bat, Schwarber also brings intangibles to the SOX team, so I'm all for re-signing him. Dalbec could be part of a trade package used to aquire a decent pitcher.

[mvp 78]

Schwarber basically forces one of these guys to the bench or Kike to 2B for Arroyo:

 

Dalbec

Renfroe

Verdugo

JD

 

While I like him more than any of these guys, the upgrade on O and downgrade on D does not outweigh what the same money going to a new or better pitcher could and should bring us.

 

Let's say Schwarber costs $17M/yr. Think of what a $30M pitcher will bring us vs a $13M pitcher, Isn't that a better upgrade than Schwarber over Dalbec?

 

Which $13M pitcher are you bringing in? At some point, they need to replace JD. I believe JD opts out.

[mvp 78]

Not true.

 

I've mentioned it often, but have usually said he should be given a longer chance.

 

I'd rather move Bogey off SS (to 2B?) than Devers off 3B. Besides, we have a 1Bman with Casas in the wings.

 

Someday, maybe.

 

See everyone, you can't trust this man's lies.

 

I have always been Devers' one true fan. He should never play 1B. If you move him off position, just throw him in LF or have him DH. Also, you don't move him off position for 2022. You may not need to move him until there is an in house replacement. Blaze? Glove isn't great. Most likely when Xander gets moved off SS for Mayer.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Which $13M pitcher are you bringing in? At some point, they need to replace JD. I believe JD opts out.

 

If JD does opt out(I'm not so sure), then re-signing Schwarber is pretty much a done deal.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

See everyone, you can't trust this man's lies.

 

I have always been Devers' one true fan. He should never play 1B. If you move him off position, just throw him in LF or have him DH. Also, you don't move him off position for 2022. You may not need to move him until there is an in house replacement. Blaze? Glove isn't great. Most likely when Xander gets moved off SS for Mayer.

 

I believe Bogey will be gone by the time Mayer is ready to be brought up. IMHO, Devers is the 'forever' player, not Bogey.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure Schwarber will be working on playing 1st base during the offseason. Besides his good bat, Schwarber also brings intangibles to the SOX team, so I'm all for re-signing him. Dalbec could be part of a trade package used to aquire a decent pitcher.

 

I want Schwarber, but I think it's an either or situation.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, in regards to Devers' defense, it's more his arm than his glove that gets him into trouble. I see that becoming less of a problem in the future.

[moonslav59]

Which $13M pitcher are you bringing in? At some point, they need to replace JD. I believe JD opts out.

 

If JD opts out, I'm all over Schwarber. I love the guy.

 

The $13M pitcher is a hypothetical. It might be someone like Danny Duffy or Wade Miley vs a $30M guy like Scherzer.

 

Scherzer vs Miley

 

or

 

Schwarber vs Dalbec/Casas at 1B

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I want Schwarber, but I think it's an either or situation.

 

You're probably right, but, damn, he looks good in a SOX uniform.

[moonslav59]

Btw, in regards to Devers' defense, it's more his arm than his glove that gets him into trouble. I see that becoming less of a problem in the future.

 

I think some of his arm issues come down to his footwork.

 

I do think he can improve, and since 1B looks full, I'm okay with him at 3B. He has good range and reflexes, so i think he can make up for some of his bad throws by making some plays many 3Bmen don't get to.

 

I do not want Devers in LF. DH might be for over 32 or 33.

[moonslav59]

You're probably right, but, damn, he looks good in a SOX uniform.

 

No doubt, and if henry opens the wallet, there can be room to add pitching and Schwarber or Semien/Baez.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, win or lose this series, I would still consider this a successful season for the SOX. Finish in last place the previous season and, like someone also mentioned, picking up the best player in the draft, plus making it to the ALCS; yup, this is better than anyone here in March even dreamed of.

But, that being said, the SOX will win this series.

[moonslav59]

Btw, win or lose this series, I would still consider this a successful season for the SOX. Finish in last place the previous season and, like someone also mentioned, picking up the best player in the draft, plus making it to the ALCS; yup, this is better than anyone here in March even dreamed of.

But, that being said, the SOX will win this series.

 

We look even better going forward, despite what jacko claims.

 

Our one year signings and FAs to be are not "big losses." Some look to be addition by subtraction. To me, only ERod, Richards/Perez and Ottavino need to be replaced. 3 pitchers, with the Richards/Perez replacement very hard to not improve on. Even Ottavino & ERod's 2021 numbers should not be too hard to improve on.

 

All these Bloom additions are back and getting closer to peak prime:

 

Kike

Verdugo

Whitlock

Pivetta

Renfroe

Arroyo

(Maybe something from Seabold, Downs, Wong/RHernandez)

 

Plus, DD (or B4 DD) holdovers should/could improve...

Houck

Dalbec

Devers

Bogey

 

The only key players you can probably expect a decline are JD and Eovaldi, but both could do the same or better.

 

Barnes ia big unknown.

[mvp 78]

If JD does opt out(I'm not so sure), then re-signing Schwarber is pretty much a done deal.

 

It's like 60/40 he opts out.

[mvp 78]

I believe Bogey will be gone by the time Mayer is ready to be brought up. IMHO, Devers is the 'forever' player, not Bogey.

 

I sign both of them to long deals.

[mvp 78]

Btw, win or lose this series, I would still consider this a successful season for the SOX. Finish in last place the previous season and, like someone also mentioned, picking up the best player in the draft, plus making it to the ALCS; yup, this is better than anyone here in March even dreamed of.

But, that being said, the SOX will win this series.

 

Plus beating the YANKEES in the WC game and beating the RAYS in the ALDS. Pretty sweet.

[Old Red]

Schwarber basically forces one of these guys to the bench or Kike to 2B for Arroyo:

 

Dalbec

Renfroe

Verdugo

JD

 

While I like him more than any of these guys, the upgrade on O and downgrade on D does not outweigh what the same money going to a new or better pitcher could and should bring us.

 

Let's say Schwarber costs $17M/yr. Think of what a $30M pitcher will bring us vs a $13M pitcher, Isn't that a better upgrade than Schwarber over Dalbec?

 

You being big on stats don’t you think that someone who has only had more than 71 RBI once, and a high BA of 266 is a bit overrated like Schwaber seems to be on here. He’s not a run producer like JD, and paying him JD like money would be better spent elsewhere?

[moonslav59]

It's like 60/40 he opts out.

 

I'm thinking he knows his best chance at a longer term deal is this winter, not next, but $19.4M is a lot.

 

I think it might be 49% he opts out.

[moonslav59]

You being big on stats don’t you think that someone who has only had more than 71 RBI once, and a high BA of 266 is a bit overrated like Schwaber seems to be on here. He’s not a run producer like JD, and paying him JD like money would be better spent elsewhere?

 

Good points. He has not had a long history of having over 510 PA seasons (once.) He's only been over 486 twice.

 

His career .237 BA looks awful, but to me, the nice .343 OBP far outweighs that low BA, and the low BA is fueled by his first 4 season.

.228 (2015-2018 w .339 OBP) 37 HRs per 650 PAs

.245 (2019-2021 w .346 OBP) 40 HRs per 650 PAs

 

He did have a 1.063 OPS with RISP, this year and .917 with Men On base.

he's a career .836 hitter and .826 with RISP and .850 with Men on base, so maybe there is no issues with be productive with his hits.

 

One reason I do not make him a top priority signing, this winter, is the one great season factor. He is 28, so maybe this season is who he really is, but there are doubts I might share with you.

 

He took a step back in 2020 (.701 OPS), but with it being such a short season, I'm not sure how much of a factor that should be.

 

2018-2019

.245/.347/.503/.849 is pretty decent. (38 HRs per 650)

 

He seems to have a good clubhouse image, for what that is worth.

 

If JD goes, he's a good replacement. I would not bring him back with JD still here unless we trade Dalbec or a corner OF'er.

[Old Red]

Good points. He has not had a long history of having over 510 PA seasons (once.) He's only been over 486 twice.

 

His career .237 BA looks awful, but to me, the nice .343 OBP far outweighs that low BA, and the low BA is fueled by his first 4 season.

.228 (2015-2018 w .339 OBP) 37 HRs per 650 PAs

.245 (2019-2021 w .346 OBP) 40 HRs per 650 PAs

 

He did have a 1.063 OPS with RISP, this year and .917 with Men On base.

he's a career .836 hitter and .826 with RISP and .850 with Men on base, so maybe there is no issues with be productive with his hits.

 

One reason I do not make him a top priority signing, this winter, is the one great season factor. He is 28, so maybe this season is who he really is, but there are doubts I might share with you.

 

He took a step back in 2020 (.701 OPS), but with it being such a short season, I'm not sure how much of a factor that should be.

 

2018-2019

.245/.347/.503/.849 is pretty decent. (38 HRs per 650)

 

He seems to have a good clubhouse image, for what that is worth.

 

If JD goes, he's a good replacement. I would not bring him back with JD still here unless we trade Dalbec or a corner OF'er.

 

Good stats, and I’m not against resigning him if JD opts out, but not at JD money. Like I said he’s not the run producer that so many on here think he is. Like we’ve hashed over before that what JD does, and what the plans for Bogey, and Raffy are have to be worked out, before you can move forward with anything else for next year, and beyond.

[notin]

BTV accepted Dalbec, Duran & Downs for Montas, Trivino and Buelvas.

 

I know, it goes against the no 3-D trade rule, but still...

 

Duran and Darwinzon Hernandez to Oakland for Bassitt and Trivino. BTV accepts it. Also, only 2 D's...

[notin]

You being big on stats don’t you think that someone who has only had more than 71 RBI once, and a high BA of 266 is a bit overrated like Schwaber seems to be on here. He’s not a run producer like JD, and paying him JD like money would be better spent elsewhere?

 

Schwarber gets on base a ton and keeps the line moving. There is absolutely value in that...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Schwarber gets on base a ton and keeps the line moving. There is absolutely value in that...

 

Old Red doesn't like Schwarber. He calls him Fred Flintstone. So, either Schwarber or Fred Flintstone stole Old Red's pick-up along with Old Red's girlfriend.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can anyone envision Bogaerts becoming an All-Star outfielder in a few years, like when Robin Yount moved from short to center? Yount won MVPs at both positions...now, that's a Hall of Famer.

[moonslav59]

Good stats, and I’m not against resigning him if JD opts out, but not at JD money. Like I said he’s not the run producer that so many on here think he is. Like we’ve hashed over before that what JD does, and what the plans for Bogey, and Raffy are have to be worked out, before you can move forward with anything else for next year, and beyond.

 

Devers may refuse an extension, so we may need to move to other priorities after his.

 

Bogey is a tough call. He may refuse any talk of restructuring his deal. I do agree, we should find out his thoughts. make him a fair offer, and if he says no, we have to think about moving him for something better than a comp pick.

[moonslav59]

Duran and Darwinzon Hernandez to Oakland for Bassitt and Trivino. BTV accepts it. Also, only 2 D's...

 

Bassit has just 1 year left. I'd have to like Trivino more than you do to be sure about this trade.

[Old Red]

Schwarber gets on base a ton and keeps the line moving. There is absolutely value in that...

 

I’m not disputing that there is no value, but just not the value of a run producer like JD.