A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Why do people think Hunter Greene is available and Cincy is punting after their first postseason appearance in years?

Fans speculate about every player.  He's very unlikely to be available, as are most players.  But Pitt and Cincy should part with some pitching, imo.

[Nick]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So the plan is hopes and prayers, and many here seem fine with that.

No wonder JH has no sense of urgency to placate the fans. Most seem content with the status quo.

Moon, at some point, we need to deal with our reality. 

I heard Bres say one thing all the other playoff teams had in common was power bats and he wanted to acquire power bats for next year. That is what he said in a podcast. You and I know what he'll say if that's not accomplished, we tried, it wasn't a good fit, etc, etc.

Toronto has surged ahead of us. Baltimore finally has made a move. Apparently the Yankees are simply waiting on return of Cole.

I guess we'll just wait and see what we need for 2027 after the 2026 season.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Fans speculate about every player.  He's very unlikely to be available, as are most players.  But Pitt and Cincy should part with some pitching, imo.

Pitching depth can disappear rapidly….

[JoeBrady]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We sorely need to replace Devers' power.

Contreras on O might replace Lowe & Bregman's O, but we still have to replace Devers + Ref.

I don't know that to be sure.  I would argue that we need more OBP (and less Ks) than we need HRs.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why are you straining to try and find a way for us to go light this offseason?

We need to improve to increase our chances at winning. Right now, we are not back to even with 2025 on offense or defense.

Yes, we seemingly have 8 positions filled, but talk of Rafaela at 2B is not a good idea.

To me, we need K Marte, with the next tier of Bregman, Bichette or maybe Paredes as acceptable. Anything less, and we go into 2026 looking worse or even on paper.

Straining?  It’s easy.

I have several reasons to think the Sox stay on a budget. They include 2021, 2022, 2023.

I also don’t buy into “replace Player X” when looked at in a vacuum.

2025 vs 2026 to date

C: Narvaez vs Narvaez.  I could see getting a better catcher.  Sox have been rumored to be in on a few.  But for now - status quo 

1b - Abraham Toro v Willson Contreras.  Toro lead the team in PAs from 1b.  The Sox have upgraded.

SS - Story vs Story.  We will leave him at SS for now and call it status quo.

OF - Duran/Rafaela/Abreu vs, hmmm let’s say Anthony/Rafaela/Abreu.  It’s close.  2026 probably gets a slight edge

DH: Devers vs Yoshida. Devers is better but Yoshida is a good hitter.  Plus at some point I expect Casas and Romy in the mix.  While no Devers, that trio is probably an upgrade over the last 90 games from the Sox.

2b or 3b is a mystery for 2026.    If they get Marte, the lineup is pribably better.  A lot does depend on a Duran trade…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Great saying.  I will lay claim to owning it at some point.  I won't try to convince anyone that believes that HRs are the only way to score runs.  The correlation of OPS to runs scored is extremely high, and much higher than HRs.  As a person that tries to attach math to as many things as possible, I'm at a loss trying to understand why people believe believe things that mathematically unlikely.

FWIW, of the top-10 teams in OPS, 9 of them were in the top-10 in scoring.  The only team that missed was the Athletics, and they finished 12th The most interesting of the HR teams were the Angels.  They finished 4th in HRs, but 25th in scoring, by virtue of being 28th in OBP, which itself was due to being last in Ks, and 29th in K/W.

Good stats, and while I may be the biggest critic of the all-or-nothing goon who hits 40 homers in between 200 strikeouts, I've watched too many Octobers lately to ignore what I see:

Home runs win playoff games and are essential for teams that want to go deep in October. 

It's just the reality of MLB these days -- mainly because how good pitching has become. Close games are more likely to be settled by one batter hitting one out, rather than three guys stringing together three singles...

... or even a walk to a fast runner and a double, which is how NY beat Boston in the game that Eaton didn't score with two outs on Yoshida's single up the middle that was thrown in the dirt and bounced past 1st. 

That happened, but it was far from the norm of Springer homering the Jays to the World Series, and Smith homering LA to the title.

[vegasbob]

Note that a 26 HR hitter will , on average, get 1 per week of regular season.    It might come in a 1-0 game and be the difference in gaining a win , or it might come , with others in a 14-4 laugher.    The majority will be solo shots, if the hitter follows low OBP hitters in the lineup.  

Following Billy Beane, I think high OBPs will be more productive than a single addition of a 26HR guy.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Straining?  It’s easy.

Staining to be okay with it. Yes

i think they will go cheap, too, but we can make one big trade and stay near the 25 budget but be better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mention of Hunter Greene reminds me of this week of half a century ago, when the first major free agent signed -- Jim Hunter. 

It was New Year's Eve 1974 and we were either at a high school party or about to go to one when it was announced on TV: Catfish signed with the Yankees. Damn, nothing worth celebrating there (except among the few New York fans present).

This isn't a post calling for offseason patience among Sox fans -- or any baseball fans. Unlike other sports, there's no set free agency season except Winter, which now drags on into Spring. 

But it isn't our fault there's now just a flood of constant info outlets that post daily about this crap even before the previous season ends -- keeping topics relevant and anticipation ripe through the cold months of waiting...

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I also don’t buy into “replace Player X” when looked at in a vacuum.

The way see it is similar.  What are we going to do at 1st, 3rd & DH.  Our 2025 stats for each:

• 1st .691
• 3B .777
• DH .823

Contreras projects to .784.  Mayer projects to .724.  Yoshida projects to .766.  On a net basis, we are down 5.6 points at 3 positions.  Almost anything we add is likely to push us into positive numbers.

[Larry Cook]

Okamoto expected to sign with Pittsburgh! 
 

Mets still need an outfielder. Duran to the Mets for vientos and tong!!!!  
 

 

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Okamoto expected to sign with Pittsburgh! 
 

Mets still need an outfielder. Duran to the Mets for vientos and tong!!!!  
 

 

 

 

the Pirates have been very busy this off-season.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Staining to be okay with it. Yes

i think they will go cheap, too, but we can make one big trade and stay near the 25 budget but be better.

I think the goal is one big trade.  The focus has been for Duran, but they haven’t apparently had any worthy offers.  And really, I haven’t heard any bad offers, just team interested and the occasional clickbait from a clueless writer.

Now watch them go and deal Rafaela instead…

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why are you straining to try and find a way for us to go light this offseason?

We need to improve to increase our chances at winning. Right now, we are not back to even with 2025 on offense or defense.

Yes, we seemingly have 8 positions filled, but talk of Rafaela at 2B is not a good idea.

To me, we need K Marte, with the next tier of Bregman, Bichette or maybe Paredes as acceptable. Anything less, and we go into 2026 looking worse or even on paper.

the only way we are getting Marte is to overpay in a trade.  The guy is 32 and doesn't really fit our window. Why give up the assets needed to acquire him when we could have just spent in FA?? Oh yeah I forgot who our owner is.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the only way we are getting Marte is to overpay in a trade.  The guy is 32 and doesn't really fit our window. Why give up the assets needed to acquire him when we could have just spent in FA?? Oh yeah I forgot who our owner is.

The only way to get Crochet was "to overpay."

Yes, I agree. Let's overpay.

BTW, what about AZ "overpaying" for Duran or Rafaela and a pitcher. (Have you seen the overpays for pitchers, this winter?)

I'd have been okay with Okamoto over KMarte, since he'd cost nothing in trade, and maybe we could still trade and OF'er + Crawford for a #2.  Suarez on a 2 year deal might be doable.

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The only way to get Crochet was "to overpay."

Yes, I agree. Let's overpay.

BTW, what about AZ "overpaying" for Duran or Rafaela and a pitcher. (Have you seen the overpays for pitchers, this winter?)

I'd have been okay with Okamoto over KMarte, since he'd cost nothing in trade, and maybe we could still trade and OF'er + Crawford for a #2.  Suarez on a 2 year deal might be doable.

firstly wee DID NOT OVERPAY for Crochet.  We got a bona-fide 25 year old STUD #1 SP not a 32 yr old 2B. I really don't need to say anymore.  Now if we are talking about acquiring Skull then yes Bello, Tolle and Early can be on the table. Other use simply sign Bichette or Bregman and use Mayer at the other position {2B or 3B} and keep those 3 SP.   Of course JH is simply too cheap to spend on EVEN ONE real FA so better to trade top pitching prospects instead.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

firstly wee DID NOT OVERPAY for Crochet.  We got a bona-fide 25 year old STUD #1 SP not a 32 yr old 2B. I really don't need to say anymore.  Now if we are talking about acquiring Skull then yes Bello, Tolle and Early can be on the table. Otherwise simply sign Bichette or Bregman and use Mayer at the other position {2B or 3B} and keep those 3 SP.   Of course JH is simply to cheap to spend on EVEN ONE real FA so better to trade top pitching prospects instead.

i have tried THREE times too type Skukal but stupid spellcheck keeps typing Skull

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Home runs win playoff games

It didn't in 2025.  This fall under the category of small sample size, but:

• There were 11 playoff series in 2025.  In 7 of those series, the same team had more HRs AND a higher OBP.
• In the 4 playoff series where one team had more HRs and one team had a higher OBP, the team with the higher OBP won 3 of the 4 series.

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

firstly wee DID NOT OVERPAY for Crochet.  We got a bona-fide 25 year old STUD #1 SP not a 32 yr old 2B. I really don't need to say anymore.  Now if we are talking about acquiring Skull then yes Bello, Tolle and Early can be on the table. Other use simply sign Bichette or Bregman and use Mayer at the other position {2B or 3B} and keep those 3 SP.   Of course JH is simply too cheap to spend on EVEN ONE real FA so better to trade top pitching prospects instead.

I agree it was not a so called overpay for Crochet. People use the so called overpay all the time, because they play with BTV. As I’ve said the last three offseason the Red Sox were not going to sign any high priced long term FA starter, and would have to trade some SUSPECTS to get one, which is what they did. OVERPAY, OVERPAY, OVERPAY.🤭

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But it isn't our fault there's now just a flood of constant info outlets that post daily about this crap

How we react is our fault.  I know when some rumors are DOA.  I know when I might get A, or I might get B, but I know I'm not getting both.  I know I like players A, B & C, but I know there is some slight chance that the RS FO knows more than I.  I know they have l/t plans on which I am not apprised.  There is some chance that the FO might go under even the first payroll cap in order to reset the cap, and then sign Skubal for $450M/10.

So I don't over-react.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Okamoto expected to sign with Pittsburgh! 

Mets still need an outfielder. Duran to the Mets for vientos and tong!!!!  

That's been my exact mantra for about 6 weeks.

[JoeBrady]

53 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i have tried THREE times too type Skukal but stupid spellcheck keeps typing Skull

You belong to a motorcycle gang?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Now watch them go and deal Rafaela instead…

As long as it is value-added.  If Cincy is putting Greene on the table, but Ceddanne has to be included, I love you dude, but when you gotta go, you gotta go.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

firstly wee DID NOT OVERPAY for Crochet.  We got a bona-fide 25 year old STUD #1 SP not a 32 yr old 2B. I really don't need to say anymore.  Now if we are talking about acquiring Skull then yes Bello, Tolle and Early can be on the table. Other use simply sign Bichette or Bregman and use Mayer at the other position {2B or 3B} and keep those 3 SP.   Of course JH is simply too cheap to spend on EVEN ONE real FA so better to trade top pitching prospects instead.

It was not a known fact Crochet would be this great. There was a lot of talk about his low IP totals.

In hindsight, it was an underpay, despite how well Meidroth and Teel look.

At the time, we made the best offer, and many thought it was too much. (I loved the overpay on day one- same as the Sale trade.)

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That's been my exact mantra for about 6 weeks.

It looks like bres-slow is asking a king’s ransom for Duran and teams are not willing to pay his price! 
fair enough if bres-slow wants to keep Duran for 2026!  
 

but that leaves yoshida as the odd man out!  So maybe we cut a deal with hang’em Chaim! 
arenado for yoshida and hicks plus whatever cash is required to make the numbers neutral for both teams!!! 

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

It looks like bres-slow is asking a king’s ransom for Duran and teams are not willing to pay his price! 
fair enough if bres-slow wants to keep Duran for 2026!  
 

but that leaves yoshida as the odd man out!  So maybe we cut a deal with hang’em Chaim! 
arenado for yoshida and hicks plus whatever cash is required to make the numbers neutral for both teams!!! 

IMO, Tong + Vientos is a king's ransom

IRT Arenado, I'd trade Yoshida straight up for Arenado.  He'll be 35, which is pretty old, but the numbers were decent.  FG projects him as a 2 WAR player, which is likely to be better than what we get from Yoshida.  Plus he is a righty.  He won't be any great addition, but I think he'll be more important than Yoshi.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It looks like bres-slow is asking a king’s ransom for Duran and teams are not willing to pay his price! 
fair enough if bres-slow wants to keep Duran for 2026!  
 

but that leaves yoshida as the odd man out!  So maybe we cut a deal with hang’em Chaim! 
arenado for yoshida and hicks plus whatever cash is required to make the numbers neutral for both teams!!! 

BTV accepts...

Rafaela, Crawford, Cespedes, Yoshida & Hicks

for

Donovan & Arenado

They have Arenado at -15.1 (It should be worse)

Yoshida -26.1 and Hicks -18.0, so straight up would require us to play $29M! That's absurd. It would put us over the tax line and close to the second one!

[moonslav59]

BTV Accepts:

Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Sousa & B King

__________________

K Campbell for Paredes & Sousa

_________________

To BOS: K Marte

To AZ: Painter & Romy

To PHI: Duran & Harrison

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To BOS: K Marte

To AZ: Painter & Romy

To PHI: Duran & Harrison

I get you want to trade our WAR leader, and best pitcher acquired in the Devers dump.

I'd do Duran and Harrison for Marte, too.

But you'd also include Romy... Romy Gonzalez?@! Our only .300 hitter for a guy who batted 20 points lower?

Cora will be apoplectic; he's already lost his other platoon lefty masher. What if Romy grows back his mustache?

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Fans speculate about every player.  He's very unlikely to be available, as are most players.  But Pitt and Cincy should part with some pitching, imo.

They should part with some pitching, but not SP1 who is controllable for 4 more years.