A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

The New York radio guys seem to think we are super close to signing Bregman to a long term deal! When they said we were signing bregman (a couple of weeks prior to the signing) last year, I did not believe it. 

What's different now compared to last year's one year offer? Bregman is a year older. He showed that maybe his bat decline was not for real, but now his health is more of a concern.

His FA value may be about the same as last winter.

Is our wide open window, now, the game changer? I thought the window opened wide, last winter, especially if the $21M spent on Buehler had worked out well, and or Houck stayed healthy.

His clubhouse value is enormous, and I think the Sox love that, but I don't see 4 years offered, and I think it takes 5.

BTW, the Sox offer last winter was not better than DET's. We got outbid on a long term deal. We will again, this winter. IMO.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's about what other Gms offer and not so much BorA$$.

If you truly believe the Sox won’t go over 3 years for anyone, then Boras would not be in Breslow’s Contacts folder…

[notin]

18 hours ago, vegasbob said:

I just cannot discount that team roster building via trades or FA's is currently influenced , at least in Boston, in anticipation of the possible work stoppage in 2027 .

 

Very possible.

Also not necessarily a bad thing…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What's different now compared to last year's one year offer? Bregman is a year older. He showed that maybe his bat decline was not for real, but now his health is more of a concern.

His FA value may be about the same as last winter.

Is our wide open window, now, the game changer? I thought the window opened wide, last winter, especially if the $21M spent on Buehler had worked out well, and or Houck stayed healthy.

His clubhouse value is enormous, and I think the Sox love that, but I don't see 4 years offered, and I think it takes 5.

BTW, the Sox offer last winter was not better than DET's. We got outbid on a long term deal. We will again, this winter. IMO.

What's different may be that the Sox saw how valuable Bregman was on the field, in the dugout, at the batting cage, in the clubhouse, on the airplanes, at the hotels, and in front of the microphones. 

All those x-factors may make a longterm contract more feasible, especially if there is an implicit agreement that when Bregman finishes his playing career in Boston that he'll still wear the uniform in a management role that coincides with Alex Cora taking his off.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All those x-factors may make a longterm contract more feasible,

One of the reasons I don't get too far into the weeds in the off-season.  This is pretty much fantasy BB for us.  We don't have any idea what the FO is looking at.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela (36 on BTV) & Hicks (-18) plus $10M cash

for

Paredes 3B/1B/2B (12) Brice Matthews (RHB 2B, 13) Sousa (LH RP, 5)

Matthews has a gazillion minor league strikeouts.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What's different now compared to last year's one year offer? Bregman is a year older. He showed that maybe his bat decline was not for real, but now his health is more of a concern.

His FA value may be about the same as last winter.

Is our wide open window, now, the game changer? I thought the window opened wide, last winter, especially if the $21M spent on Buehler had worked out well, and or Houck stayed healthy.

His clubhouse value is enormous, and I think the Sox love that, but I don't see 4 years offered, and I think it takes 5.

BTW, the Sox offer last winter was not better than DET's. We got outbid on a long term deal. We will again, this winter. IMO.

Last year's deal with Bregman wasn't really a one-year deal.  It was one of those new-fangled "creative" deals that guaranteed him 3 years and $120 million but allowed him to split after one.  It was much better than a one-year deal from his perspective. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If you truly believe the Sox won’t go over 3 years for anyone, then Boras would not be in Breslow’s Contacts folder…

I'm not 90% sure we wont go 4 or more years, and if the guy is 28 or 29, I think we would. (30- maybe.)

We might go 4 for Bregman. Maybe 3 with a hefty buyout on 4th year option.

I think they'd rather go 2 for Suarez.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Matthews has a gazillion minor league strikeouts.

Yes, 29% in AAA, but a .795 OPS and about 20 Hrs per 650 for the 23 year old.

I guess his defense might be what matters. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Last year's deal with Bregman wasn't really a one-year deal.  It was one of those new-fangled "creative" deals that guaranteed him 3 years and $120 million but allowed him to split after one.  It was much better than a one-year deal from his perspective. 

It wasn't a 4+ year deal, though, so why now?

[moonslav59]

I just joined BTV, and had some fun, today.

Some Sox players I feel they over-rated:

22 Crawford

18 Casas

9 Cespedes (the most over)

3 Bleis

2.4 Castro, 2.3 Zanetello

I think KC is worth more than 19, Slaten more than 11 and Valera more than 6.

Some of my trade suggestions, some made in haste (all have the other team getting more BTV value)

Crawford & Hicks for Nate

Cespedes, Harrison, Sandlin & Hicks for Nate

Rafaela & DHam for Nate, Jung and Latz

Cespedes, Sandlin & Wong for Keller & Bart (PIT says HELL NO!)

Crawford, Cespedes & Wong for Bubic and Blake Mitchell

Duran, Casas & DHam for K Marte

Rafaela, Crawford & Romy for KMarte

Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan & Pages

Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo & McLain

Duran & Hamilton for Lodolo & McLain

Rafaela, Hicks & $10M for Paredes, Matthews & Sousa

Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Matthews and Sousa

Rafaela, Crawford, Soto & Cespedes for Ragans

_________________

3 Ways:

BOS: Paredes & Alcantara

HOU: K Campbell

MIA: B Mathews

_______________

BOS: Joe Ryan

MIN: Painter & Mullins

PHI: Duran & Harrison

______________

This one was for fun.....

BOS: Skenes & Keller

PHI: Duran, Crawford, Hicks & Cespedes

PIT: Mayer, Painter, Tolle & Castro

and

Duran, Crawford & Narvaez

for

Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

One of the reasons I don't get too far into the weeds in the off-season.  This is pretty much fantasy BB for us.  We don't have any idea what the FO is looking at.

Fantasy? On an anonymous forum full of outsiders speculating info, most of which is typed by old-timers like me who need to keep bloviating to ward off old-timers' disease?

Wharf Rattedly, August West (opposite direction of Ebenezer Stooge).

[Larry Cook]

Would bres-slow have any desire in trading for jojo Romero??? 

[JoeBrady]

BOS: Paredes & Alcantara

HOU: K Campbell

MIA: B Mathews

That's the one I would do, and might make some sense.  The BTV ratings seem way off.  I see no way that Ryan is a 52, and Alcantara is only a 10.  That said, while I don't like Matthews, that doesn't mean Miami might not like him.  And a #1/28 with a #68 ranking is at least a good start towards Alcantara.  I also don't think Houston would trade both Matthews & Paredes for Campbell.  But again, at a minimum, it is a good start.

I think it would cost the RS a bit more, but not major pieces.  Maybe one of those 8/9/10 SPs that we have.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

BOS: Paredes & Alcantara

HOU: K Campbell

MIA: B Mathews

That's the one I would do, and might make some sense.  The BTV ratings seem way off.  I see no way that Ryan is a 52, and Alcantara is only a 10.  That said, while I don't like Matthews, that doesn't mean Miami might not like him.  And a #1/28 with a #68 ranking is at least a good start towards Alcantara.  I also don't think Houston would trade both Matthews & Paredes for Campbell.  But again, at a minimum, it is a good start.

I think it would cost the RS a bit more, but not major pieces.  Maybe one of those 8/9/10 SPs that we have.

Would HOU do this for Rafaela, instead of KC? (I might wants a HOU, LH'd RP'er added, if so.)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Would HOU do this for Rafaela, instead of KC? (I might wants a HOU, LH'd RP'er added, if so.)

I wouldn't do it for Rafaela.  Duran or Abreu, maybe.  It's all guesswork.  We don't know if the RS consider Campbell as someone who is about to drop out, or as someone that's only a half-step behind Anthony.  Minor league player of the year is not so very long ago.  For all I know, Campbell could be untouchable.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't do it for Rafaela.  Duran or Abreu, maybe.  It's all guesswork.  We don't know if the RS consider Campbell as someone who is about to drop out, or as someone that's only a half-step behind Anthony.  Minor league player of the year is not so very long ago.  For all I know, Campbell could be untouchable.

I'm sure GMs rank our OF'ers differently than we do, and more importantly than how Brez does.

BTV has this:

61 Anthony

46 Duran

36 Rafaela

27 Abreu (4 of our top 7 values are OF'ers.)

19 Campbell (ranked 13th on team)

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't do it for Rafaela.  Duran or Abreu, maybe. 

If we don't get a big bat at 2B or 3B, I'd rather trade Rafaela and keep our biggest 3 bats in the OF.

[moonslav59]

There is no reason to expect any pitcher to repeat their best season from the last 4 years in 2026, but here is what we would see if that happened:

ERA+ (GS/IP}

BOS

159 Crochet in '25 (32/205)

157 S Gray in '23 (32/184)

138 Sandoval 'in '22 (28/149)

123 B Bello in '25 (28/167)

121 Oviedo in '25 (9/40) 110 since '22 in 49 GS

113 Crawford in '23 (23/129) 

101 Harrison in '25 (6/36)

Early 179 in 4 GS in '25. Tolle's numbers were not good in '25.

There is some reason for hope with this rotation.

I'm sure the Yankee and Jays SP'ers would have some nice looking best seasons, too!

 

[moonslav59]

When you should expect improvements as player approach prime or reach peak prime, some of the numbers look low...

Our projected fWAR for 2026:

3.1 Anthony (2.7 in less than half a season)

2.9 Rafaela (3.8 in '25)

2.2 Abreu (2.4 while missing a month)

2.1 Duran (3.9 in '25)

2.1 Narvaez (2.4 as a rookie)

1.9 Contreras (2.8 in '25, 2.7 in '24 & 2.8 in '23)

1.9 Story (3.0 during a fully healthy '25)

1.8 Mayer (0.4 in 1/4 a season)

1.5 Romy (1.5 in 96 games)

0.5 Casas (-0,4 in about a month)

0.4 Campbell, Sogard & Yoshida

0.3 Wong & DHam

Pitchers

5.7 Crochet (5.8 in '25)

3.9 Gray (3.6 in '25, 3.8 in '24 and 5.4 in '23)

2.0 Bello (1.9)

1.6 Sandoval (3.5 '23-'24 in 244 IP and 3.7 in '22 in 149 IP)

1.5 Chapman (2.6)

1.1 Whitlock (2.2- they cut him in half)

1.1 Crawford (1.8 in '24 and 2.4 in '23)

1.1 Early (1.1 in just 19 IP)

0.7 Tolle (-0.2) & Oviedo (2.0 2023+2025 in 218 IP)

0.6 Harrison (0.4 in just 12 IP)

0.4 Slaten (0.4 but 1.5 in '24)

0.2 Weissert (0.7- they show no love here)

I realize other teams can make similar claims abut their estimates looking lower than 2025 numbers and recent trends.

 

[moonslav59]

This is not a projection, but would these numbers be enough to get us real close to a ring season?

C: .700 Narvaez (450 PAs) .650 Wong (200)

1B: .790 Contreras (600) .790 Casas (200)

2B: .725 Mayer (550) .750 Romy (150)

SS: .725 Story (650)

3B: _________ (E Suarez .800 in 650 PAs?

LF: .850 Anthony (700)

CF: .725 Rafaela (650)

RF: .800 Abreu (650)

DH: .800 Duran (700)

OPS+

SP

150 Crochet 200 IP

110 Gray 185

110 Bello  175

105 Sandoval 170

100 Oviedo 165

SP/RP

100 Crawford 150

100 Harrison 120

110 Early 100

110 Tolle 100

RP:

150 Chapman 60

140 Whitlock 70

130 Slaten 80

120 Weissert 70

100 Kelly 60

100 Watson 60

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but would these numbers be enough to get us real close to a ring season?

They would enough for approximately the best record in BB.  That would rank us ~ #2 on offense and about #5 in pitching.  Philly most closely approximated those numbers and had the #2 record and #5 Py.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They would enough for approximately the best record in BB.  That would rank us ~ #2 on offense and about #5 in pitching.  Philly most closely approximated those numbers and had the #2 record and #5 Py.

Of course all that won't happen at once, but none are outlandish, and some will do better. This is expecting good results from all key players- not great- but all decent to good.

 

[moonslav59]

If we do nothing else, this winter, maybe this is the set up:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Romy 2B (S Sogard)

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 3B (R Eaton/ S Sogard)

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Yoshida, Sogard/Eaton, Campbell)

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Sandoval, Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert, Kelly, Hicks/Watson

[moonslav59]

The best players available as FA or Trades -in terms of helping the Sox roster:

1. Tucker  (We could trade 2 OF'ers for 2B/3B and SP2)

2. KMarte (Trade)

T3. Bregman or Bichette

5. Okamoto

6. E Suarez

7. Joe Ryan (Trade)

8. Paredes (Trade)

T9. F Valdez or Ranger Suarez

T11. T Imai or Lodolo (Trade)

T13. Donovan (Trade) G Torres (Trade) or Hoerner (Trade)

16. Seager (Trade)

T17.. Vientos (Trade) or J Jung (Trade)

T19. Ragans (Trade) Gore (Trade) Bubic (Trade) Alcantara (Trade) S Imanaga, S Bassitt, N Martinez

T26. Alcantara (Trade) P Lopez (Trade) L Castillo (Trade) L Giolito, Z Littell, S Dominguez

32. Realmuto (borderline)

I'm not interested in these highly rated players:

Gallen or Bellinger (I would not trade 2 OF'ers, so we could get him.)

 

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course all that won't happen at once, but none are outlandish

I find these things useful exercises.  It keeps fans grounded in reality.

[notin]

On 12/24/2025 at 3:57 PM, JoeBrady said:

Matthews has a gazillion minor league strikeouts.

If the Sox are acquiring the infielder to complete their lineup - and not even an expensive one - why are they including JH Hicks?

I get you don’t like his one partial season in Boston, but players bounce back.  And given that former 2024 Sox washout Brad Keller has an $11mill AAV, replacing Hicks isn’t likely to be noticeably cheaper.  Plus last year, he wasted time in the Giants’ rotation.  Maybe getting back into full time reliever mode will work out for Hicks.

And as you live in/near Houston, do you really think the Astros give up Matthews in that deal?  For a package headlined by Rafaela?  

Edited December 26, 2025 by notin
Clearly responded to the wrong post. Meant for the moonslav trade proposal

[Duran Is The Man]

On 12/24/2025 at 4:34 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

Last year's deal with Bregman wasn't really a one-year deal.  It was one of those new-fangled "creative" deals that guaranteed him 3 years and $120 million but allowed him to split after one.  It was much better than a one-year deal from his perspective. 

it was stupid. just like the Gio contract. great for the player. sucks for the team. besides the $40 million, his signing cost us Devers.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it was stupid. just like the Gio contract. great for the player. sucks for the team. besides the $40 million, his signing cost us Devers.

No, Devers “me first” attitude cost us Devers.  If he shut up, grabbed a first baseman’s mitt and signed the team “Get Well Soon” card for Casas, he’d still be here.  But instead he went on some whiny rant about having to play EVERY POSITION, when in reality, he was asked to play just one.  What a terrible teammate.

Bregman just allowed us to find out about it faster…

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/23/2025 at 6:59 AM, notin said:

 That doesn’t mean you focus on 2026 alone.  Part of being competitive every year does involve taking 2027, 2028, etc. into account.  The Sox plan on fielding teams those years, too.

If the Sox focus solely on 2026, what happens if a key injury derails the season?

who suggested we only focus on 2026 alone ?? Secondly why would we basically punt on 2026 for a better 2027 or beyond?? I seem to recall JH on more than one occasion saying the goal was to compete for a WS EVERY year. If we are not going for it in 2026 just tell and we won't have to watch or buy tickets.