JoeBrady

We're likely to be short on the rotation. Just my personal risk assessment: Crochet 20% Tolle 15% Suarez 20% Bennett 35% Bello 35% We need another SP.

Maybe, maybe not. Based on his minor league numbers, I don't think 25 HRs with a .275-.285 is unreasonable.

I don't think Schwarber was #1. Since the board has (finally) moved on from HRs to SLG, it is worth noting that Contreras had a higher SLG, in addition to his positional importance.

Bonds was one of the worst playoff performers in history, until he wasn't.

Bregman is 6-26 with -0- HRs in the past three years. I don't consider an issue.

Wrong. He's already really good (not great) but only 24.277. He could have another year or two of growth/experience. I don't think he has some of the issues that some other uber-athletes have (like ONeil Cruz). His K/W continues to improve, going from 4.11 to 3.16 to 2.70 to 2.43. His EV and FB% took substantial jumps last year. I'm an agnostic on FB%, but I consider his 26.4% to be a prime number. On this last one, it's above my pay grade, but he seems like a happy camper. I like guys that like to play, but the FO has to do the homework to see what he's like in the clubhouse. He's not really replacing anyone. There might be guys in the clubhouse that everyone likes, and it's a negative to replace them. But no matter how good Arias might become, he isn't one of us yet. And no matter what one thinks of Story, no one will be upset replacing him with Elly. What would put me over the top, however, is if he came with an extension. Again, it is homework time in the FO. Maybe he has some negatives I am unaware of. But he reminds me of Tatis. Setting aside the PEDs issue, he seems like a sinewy type of athlete that could give us ten years before the decline. If he passes the character test, give him $400M/10, plus the control years, pound down a few shots or puffs or whatever, hurl, and you just might wake up in the morning with a HOF-level 25 year old kid.

That's the way that works. But they are still #27 in HRs, and behind the RS. If you are okay with the RS being #27 in HRs, then just say so.

It's not like I can't trade Durbin, but he needs to be treated as a 4.4 bWAR player.

Is Contreras' .901 'great'? If so, then I think we are in agreement. But IMO, losing Abreu for Elly, while an upgrade, is not a difference-maker. If you could move Arias + non-current parts, then I'm cool. We're already on shaky grounds in the OF as is. Duran, if we keep him, is a complete question mark. Anthony is a half question mark. I'd say we really only have 2.5 outfielders, and cannot afford to make that only 1.5 outfielders. And we cannot upgrade to Elly at SS, and then gut that additional production by starting Story someplace else.

Because their 10.7 bWAR is so much higher than Contreras + Durbin's 9.0? Not to mention that the extra salary is roughly what it cost us for Gray + Suarez. There is absolutely no chance that you can choose Alonso + Bregman over Contreras + Durbin + $45M. And that doesn't even include that there is a good chance Alonso & Bregman won't be viable players at age 35 & 36.

It took me a lot longer than I anticipated to get you here, but we finally agree. Nine good hitters is the way to go. Hopefully that concludes our discussion.

There's a lot of variance in both numbers. FG predicted a .673 in 2027 for Arias, and that was before his breakout season last year. .725 could be high, but I'd minor wager on > .700.

Expanding the rosters by two players is the same as adding two teams of 30 players.

Dated in what way? In 2026, the best OBP is from the 2-hole. The 2nd best OBP is from the 1-hole. And maybe it's a fluke, but the OBP is almost perfectly aligned with the batting order. 3=3, 4=4, etc. Managers still put their best OBP guys 1/2. And even when they use a slugger in the 1/2 hole, it is generally because they are also the guys with the good OBP.

I can agree with that. But they still aren't hacking away. They are very selective.