A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Has Brez always liked the oversized pitchers, or is this something kinda new?

Is the talk of 6-1 195 Bello being traded partly due to his not being big enough?

6-6 275 Oviedo

6-6 250 Tolle

6-6 245 Crochet

6-6 234 Bennett

6-5 225 Watson

6-5 190 Delzine (may gain some weight)

6-4 245 Phillips

6-4 235 Chapman

6-4 222 Slaten

6-4 215 Sandlin

6-4 205 Samaniento

6-3 190 Sandoval & Holobetz (tall but not big)

6-2 235 Weissert

He did also acquire...

6-2 209 Hicks (not really small)

6-2 210 Eyanson (not small)

6-2 205 Witherspoon (not small)

6-1 167 Moran

5-10 190 Sonny Gray (breaks the mold)

 

It must be a new fetish. When Breslow won the 2013 World Series, he was listed as a shrimpy 6-footer. The only key pitchers on that postseason staff at least 6-4 were Lester and Lackey.

Andrew Miller was cheering in the dugout but didn't make the roster.

[Randy Red Sox]

38 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Absolutely do not trade Rafaela. He just won a gold glove at a premium position, he can play multiple positions, is young and is improving each year as a hitter. He has not yet begun to hit his ceiling as a hitter. DO NOT TRADE.

i don't think we should trade any of our OF.  not sure the value they could return is as high as Red Sox fans think they are.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It must be a new fetish. When Breslow won the 2013 World Series, he was listed as a shrimpy 6-footer. The only key pitchers on that postseason staff at least 6-4 were Lester and Lackey.

Andrew Miller was cheering in the dugout but didn't make the roster.

Maybe Brez had and still has littleman syndrome.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't think we should trade any of our OF.  not sure the value they could return is as high as Red Sox fans think they are.

How high should they be valued?

When I look at BTV values assigned, they look about right, and I'm trying to be impartial.

306 Julio Rodriguez (569-263)

110 Carroll (210 skill-100 pay)

94 Soto (277-183)

85 Tatis (380! -190)

61 Anthony (220 Skill-166 pay)

46 Duran (83)

36 Rafaela (94 due to more years of control)

27 Abreu (56)

19 Campbell (112 due to more years)

NYY: 25 Judge (due to mega contract his skill is valued at 265), 25 Chisholm (26 skill), 24 Dominguez (48)

Hell, JRod is valued more highly than the top 7 Sox players combined!

[Tedballgame]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to keep Rafaela and prefer trading your guy, Duran.

I'm pretty certain other GMs see Rafaela like we do and not like Drewski. They value him highly and would give up a lot to get him, plus, you might get your way and see Duran in CF.

I know you prefer we trade Abreu, but you stand alone in your belief he's not a great defensive RF'er, and I might add that Duran IS a great defensive CF'er.

The context for my suggesting we might trade Rafaela over Duran or Abreu is if we DO NOT add a big bat at 3B/2B. If that happens, we need the offense from the 3 OF'ers not named Rafaela.

Duran is not my guy and I do not prefer tading Abreu. I think you have my post confused with someone else.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Duran is not my guy and I do not prefer tading Abreu. I think you have my post confused with someone else.

Yes, my bad, Ted.  Sorry.

[Larry Cook]

15 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

a number of issues on Duran but i clearly think he is more valuable to keep than he would be to trade.

We do not need to trade any outfielders. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We do not need to trade any outfielders. 

We do if we are continuing this aversion to free agents…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

We do not need to trade any outfielders. 

We don't need to.  But the more important question is, what is in our best long-term interests.  The Tigers won't do it, but if this was a fantasy team, trading three years of Duran for one year of Skubal is not unreasonable.  I presume that you would do that for the short-term gain?  Or if Burns or Chandler were available, would you take a small hit to our 2026 chances in exchange for a much better chance in in 2029-2031 (assuming '27 & '28 are break-even)?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

We do not need to trade any outfielders. 

Why greatly diminish Duran's value by DH'ing him?

His value as an OF'er (4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024) is worth more to another team than to us as a DH, where his 2025 OPS is about the same as Masa's career OPS.

Same thing with minimizing Rafaela's value by playing him at 2B.

We have a great need at 2B or 3B. I think we could use both, but that is NOT happening. I'd also think we'd be way better with a solid #2 SP'er. Any improvement in these areas would far outweigh they gain we get by benching Masa/Casa/Romy/Campbell at DH for Duran.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

We do if we are continuing this aversion to free agents…

Even if we signed Bregman and Ranger Sanchez, I'd still trade an OF'er. 

[Michigan Adam2]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We do not need to trade any outfielders. 

I strongly disagree. This team has 2 major holes, 2B and 3rd, and a 3rd area of big improvement possibility#2 SP. There is an apparent salary ceiling.  If they dont trade more than 1 player off the current roster then they dont fill the holes the way us fans think they should. Those are just facts, or at least apparent facts. Obviously, if you are going to trade off the roster and want quality players in return you have to give up value.  If your trade to fill m one hole just creates another you dont get better.  One of the few areas of excess is OF. They basically have 5 on the roster, counting the D horrible DH that has basically no trade value. Which of the other 4 do you want to trade. They also have an excess of 4th or 5th spot SP, but you have to be careful trading out of that depth as well...

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why greatly diminish Duran's value by DH'ing him?

 

A couple of things:   1.) The outfielders would probably rotate through the dh spot. This keeps their bats in the lineup, but gives them a rest from position play. 

2.) injuries happen, see 2025 for a refresher. There is more reason to believe someone will have a season ending or less serious injury than not. (Story 3 years! Casas 2 years! Less serious injuries and the list is much longer.) 

3.) opposing lefty pitchers give a few of our outfielders serious issues. Options are never a bad thing, unless hang’em Chaim is signing recently dfa’d pitchers! 
4.) defensive replacements. Do we really want to see Duran patrolling the outfield in the late innings of a close game?  See game 3 of the Yankees playoff series for a refresher. 

this team has 1 minor hole in the infield and a Grand Canyon size hole at the number 2 spot in the rotation! 

[Michigan Adam2]

17 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

A couple of things:   1.) The outfielders would probably rotate through the dh spot. This keeps their bats in the lineup, but gives them a rest from position play. 

2.) injuries happen, see 2025 for a refresher. There is more reason to believe someone will have a season ending or less serious injury than not. (Story 3 years! Casas 2 years! Less serious injuries and the list is much longer.) 

3.) opposing lefty pitchers give a few of our outfielders serious issues. Options are never a bad thing, unless hang’em Chaim is signing recently dfa’d pitchers! 
4.) defensive replacements. Do we really want to see Duran patrolling the outfield in the late innings of a close game?  See game 3 of the Yankees playoff series for a refresher. 

this team has 1 minor hole in the infield and a Grand Canyon size hole at the number 2 spot in the rotation! 

Few teams have the quality and depth in the rotation the Sox have already. Not a huge hole no.  If they want to win it all they probably need an upgrade, but will they pay that price in $$ and or prospects to get that guy(s) and then keep them all locked up?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I strongly disagree. This team has 2 major holes, 2B and 3rd, and a 3rd area of big improvement possibility#2 SP. There is an apparent salary ceiling.  If they dont trade more than 1 player off the current roster then they dont fill the holes the way us fans think they should. Those are just facts, or at least apparent facts. Obviously, if you are going to trade off the roster and want quality players in return you have to give up value.  If your trade to fill m one hole just creates another you dont get better.  One of the few areas of excess is OF. They basically have 5 on the roster, counting the D horrible DH that has basically no trade value. Which of the other 4 do you want to trade. They also have an excess of 4th or 5th spot SP, but you have to be careful trading out of that depth as well...

Well said, and if you believe Campbell is a major part of our plans for 2026 and beyond, he have 5 OF'er and 4 DHs (counting KC twice.)

OF: Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell (Masa)

DH: Masa, Casas, Campbell, Romy (Duran)

I would not trade a 4/5 slot pitcher, unless we upgrade to a 2/3 SP'er. I like our rotation depth, but we've already reduced it enough.

[urban cowboy]

On 12/26/2025 at 10:49 PM, moonslav59 said:

We shouldn't have to wing it.

We have one big hole: 2B or 3B. We should be able to fill the need, even without spending by just trading an OF'er.

I'm sure it's buried in here somewhere...so pardon me ... Are we 100% convinced that Campbell can't play second? I didn't think he was that bad, but I also didn't watch him carefully. Does he even have a "natural" position?

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

I'm sure it's buried in here somewhere...so pardon me ... Are we 100% convinced that Campbell can't play second? I didn't think he was that bad, but I also didn't watch him carefully. Does he even have a "natural" position?

I'm convinced KC should not play 2B, again, unless he shows improvement in AAA first.

Since he is apparently being used in LF, that won't happen anytime soon.

His "natural position" might be DH. The Sox often "hide" a bad defender in LF, but we are loaded in the OF, so IMO, we should trade one.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, urban cowboy said:

I'm sure it's buried in here somewhere...so pardon me ... Are we 100% convinced that Campbell can't play second? I didn't think he was that bad, but I also didn't watch him carefully. Does he even have a "natural" position?

I saw Romy in 2024 and thought he was awful, almost unplayable.  I thought he was 'okay' in 2025.  So improvement is possible.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I saw Romy in 2024 and thought he was awful, almost unplayable.  I thought he was 'okay' in 2025.  So improvement is possible.

Campbell won't improve at 2B, if he never plays there.

[moonslav59]

If Campbell could give us an .800 OPS, his defense at 2B might not matter much,

It would allow us to trade an OF'er and Crawford for a solid #2 SP.

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

Few teams have the quality and depth in the rotation the Sox have already. Not a huge hole no.  If they want to win it all they probably need an upgrade, but will they pay that price in $$ and or prospects to get that guy(s) and then keep them all locked up?

Quality and depth????  Let’s take a closer look: 

1.) crochet - quality. 
2.) gray - quality
3.) bello - quality 
4.) Oviedo - depth. 
5.) Sandoval - depth. 
6.) Cutter - depth. 
7.) early - depth at best until proven otherwise. 
8.) Tolle - depth at best until proven otherwise, 

9.) Harrison - depth at best until proven otherwise. 

our rotation is woefully short on quality, decent depth and some unproven depth! 
 

gaping huge hole after crochet!  Biggest area of need !!!  

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

gaping huge hole after crochet!  Biggest area of need !!!  

I would like a good #2, or even another #1, even if it costs a lot.  That said, I could see an alternate reality where we add a good 1-2 year bat while developing our pitching pipeline.  Adding a #2 probably pushes a decent arm, like Oviedo or Sandoval, to the BP.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Quality and depth????  Let’s take a closer look: 

1.) crochet - quality. 
2.) gray - quality
3.) bello - quality 
4.) Oviedo - depth. 
5.) Sandoval - depth. 
6.) Cutter - depth. 
7.) early - depth at best until proven otherwise. 
8.) Tolle - depth at best until proven otherwise, 

9.) Harrison - depth at best until proven otherwise. 

our rotation is woefully short on quality, decent depth and some unproven depth! 
 

gaping huge hole after crochet!  Biggest area of need !!!  

Think context. How many teams have  3 quality SP'ers? Maybe 8-12?

How many of those 8-12 have 6 decent depth pitchers?

0-2?

Yes, quality and depth within the context of what other teams have.

Name 3 other teams that have the quality and depth. Maybe 8-12 have one or the other- maybe.

I bet no more than 3 teams, including us, have both.

[moonslav59]

While the idea of Mayer at 3B (maybe Eaton or Romy as a partial or full platoon) and DHam/Romy at 2B might work out okay, is it really what we feel good about? It's a big step down from Bregman at 3B and a mix at 2B. The Contreras addition does not offset the Bregman loss.

Then, what offsets the Devers, Ref and Lowe losses? That's bout 660 PAs.

We can hope and pray another 330 PAs from Anthony makes up for half that loss, but now we're at the point where we need to hope for zero injuries or some major step up by someone like Abreu, Rafaela, Mayer or maybe Duran having a career year better than 2024.

Some sort of patch fix like Vientos or Donovan would help, but I seriously doubt either would be enough, and neither is worth trading one of our OF'er for. To me, Paredes, Suarez or Okamoto are about the level we need to begin to have hope we will be at least as good as 2025 on paper- maybe better with just a little luck. KMarte, Bregman or Bichette might get us to a surer plus over 2025, with nothing else added: no LH'd RP'er. No #2 SP'er. No second addition to the infield.

I keep reading all this talk about one more big and bold trade or signing is in the works, and maybe it is. I'd like to see two, but that would mean JH is spending more than I think he will and or we'd be trading away more of the future than I'm comfortable doing.

[moonslav59]

To BOS: Paredes & Mitch Kelly

To; HOU: Kutter Crawford (If they want or need, and since they are losing 2 infielders, give them DHam)

To PIT: Brice Matthews (If HOU does not want or need DHam add him to PIT)

This is more complicated:

To BOS: Paredes, Keller, B King, B Sousa, W Janek

To HOU: K Campbell, K Crawford, DHam & Wong

To PIT: B Matthews

[Michigan Adam2]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Quality and depth????  Let’s take a closer look: 

1.) crochet - quality. 
2.) gray - quality
3.) bello - quality 
4.) Oviedo - depth. 
5.) Sandoval - depth. 
6.) Cutter - depth. 
7.) early - depth at best until proven otherwise. 
8.) Tolle - depth at best until proven otherwise, 

9.) Harrison - depth at best until proven otherwise. 

our rotation is woefully short on quality, decent depth and some unproven depth! 
 

gaping huge hole after crochet!  Biggest area of need !!!  

How many teams have an ace like crochet and 2,3 starters as good as bello and gray.  Not saying they are the best, but they are better than at least 2/3 of the league. Again, they can absolutely add a #2 to be a WS contender, but I'd still argue the hole(s) in the lineup for a solid plus RH hitter with possible defensive spots available at 2nd or 3rd realistically is their biggest need.  As of now it would be KC, Mayer, or Romney filling those 2 spots that just aren't good enough in the lineup to fill the need on O. 

[notin]

22 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

A couple of things:   1.) The outfielders would probably rotate through the dh spot. This keeps their bats in the lineup, but gives them a rest from position play. 

 

So we get 40 games of Ceddanne Rafaela as DH?

And some folks say letting him play 2b is a waste of his skills…

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Think context. How many teams have  3 quality SP'ers? Maybe 8-12?

How many of those 8-12 have 6 decent depth pitchers?

0-2?

Yes, quality and depth within the context of what other teams have.

Name 3 other teams that have the quality and depth. Maybe 8-12 have one or the other- maybe.

I bet no more than 3 teams, including us, have both.

Just look at the rotations that the Yankees and blue jays have!!!!  
 

we clearly have the better number 1 pitcher of the three teams, 

gray and bello could  be very competitive at the number 3 and 4 spots against those two rotations 

it is the number 2 spot that is a grand canyon size hole for us!!!  
It forces gray to go against fried, (loss for us) then bello against rondon (loss for us) and Oviedo against shitlister (no idea on this one) 

I feel much better about our chances if gray is pitching in the number 3 hole 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

How many teams have an ace like crochet and 2,3 starters as good as bello and gray.  Not saying they are the best, but they are better than at least 2/3 of the league. Again, they can absolutely add a #2 to be a WS contender, but I'd still argue the hole(s) in the lineup for a solid plus RH hitter with possible defensive spots available at 2nd or 3rd realistically is their biggest need.  As of now it would be KC, Mayer, or Romney filling those 2 spots that just aren't good enough in the lineup to fill the need on O. 

Going by fangraphs projections for the top 10 rotations in MLB by fWAR projections:

BOS: 5.7, 3.9, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1 (1.0, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5) 2nd Highest fWAR 1-3 at 11.6 and a decent 4-8 at 5.4)

LAD: 3.6, 3.3, 3.1, 2.6, 1.7 (1.7, 0.4, 0.3) Top 3: 10.0 & 5.7 for #4-8. They are one of the 2-3 that rival the Sox in TOTRSP and depth.

DET: 5.9, 2.6, 2.3, 2.1, 1.2 (1.1, 0.5, 0.3) Top 3: 10.8 is closest to the Sox and 5.3 for 4-8, which beats the Sox depth. They are the second team that rivals the Sox in top 3 AND 4-8 starters.

PHI: 4.8, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0, 0.8 (0.5, 0.1, 0.1) Only team with 4 over 3.0, but close to the worst 5-8 SP'ers) They don't have both. Nope.

TOR: 3.8, 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.1 (1.0, 0.4, 0.1) Top 3: 9.1 & 5.8. They have better 4-6 SP'ers and 4-8 but not 1-3. Nope.

PIT: 5.8, 2.3, 1.9, 1.6, 1.5 (1.2, 0.6, 0.1) Nope.

ATL: 4.2, 3.0, 2.7, 1..6, 1.3 (0.8, 0.5, 0.3) Nope.

CIN: 3.6, 2.6, 2.4, 2.3, 2.0 (0.7, 0.2, 0,2) Nice having all 5 over 2.0 but worse in top 3 and way worse in depth. Nope.

SEA: 3.3, 3.2, 3.2, 2.4, 1.4 (0.2, 0.2, 0.1) Nice balanced top 3 and a decent 3-4 (Top 3 =13.5 is tops, but their 5-8 is horrific. 4-8=4.3 is kinda close to BOS, so one could call them the 3rd team that rivals the Sox, but I would not call 0.2, 0.2 and 0.1 decent depth. NOPE

KCR: 4.2, 2.4, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7 (0.6, 0.3, 0.3) Nope

I'm sticking to my position that only 2-3 team rival our top of rotation value AND our SP'er depth.

5.7 Crochet 3rd best in MLB

3.9 Gray #9 in MLB

2.0 Bello #72 (if a #3 is 60-90, he's a mid level #3.)

1.6 Sandoval (107 IP) #101 (ranks as a mid #4, if 90-120)

1.1 Crawford (90 IP) #149 (ranks as a bottom #5 type) He'd be at 2.2 with 180 IP.

1.0 Early (55 IP) #160 but look at the IP projection. He'd be a 3.0 with 165 IP.

0.7 Tolle (45 IP) He'd be at 2.8 with 180 IP

0.6 Oviedo (36 IP) He'd be at 3.0 with 1180 IP

0,5 Harrison (44 IP) He'd be at 2.0 at 164 IP

I'm not sure how adjusting all our SP'ers to 180 IP would look, but I'm guessing our 6-7-8-9 are better than almost everyone else.

 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Just look at the rotations that the Yankees and blue jays have!!!!  
 

we clearly have the better number 1 pitcher of the three teams, 

gray and bello could  be very competitive at the number 3 and 4 spots against those two rotations 

it is the number 2 spot that is a grand canyon size hole for us!!!  
It forces gray to go against fried, (loss for us) then bello against rondon (loss for us) and Oviedo against shitlister (no idea on this one) 

I feel much better about our chances if gray is pitching in the number 3 hole 

I'm not as high on Sonny Gray as many are, and I do think fangraphs projects him too highly, but I think you are undervaluing him and overvaluing NYY and TOR. Cole is a huge question mark and so are Cease, Bieber, Ponce and Yesavage. Rodon starts the season on the IL. How has that worked for Sox pitchers? Why are Yankee pitchers different?

Fangraphs ranks the Yankee SP'ers at #14, and they notoriously overvalue Yankee players. The Jays beat the NYY at all 5 SP slots in projected fWAR!

#1: 3.8 Cease (187 IP) 3.6 Fried (189 IP)

#2: 2.8 Gausman (185) 2.2 Rodon (162)

#3: 2.5 Bieber (153) 1.9 Cole (131)

#4 2.2 Ponce (139) 1.8 Schlitter (148)

#5: 2.1 Yesavage (137) 1.5 Warren (121)

Sox:

5.7 Crochet blows TOR and NYY away by about 2 each!

3.9 Gray- take 1 away and he still beats TOR and NYY!

2.0 Bello is 0.5 below Bieber but beats Cole.

1.6 Sandoval & 1.1 Crawford are the worst of the 3, but Early, Tolle and Harrison total 2.2 in just 144 IP.

TOR's #6-8 total 1.5 in 129 IP

NYY's #6-8 toal 1.6 in 152 IP.

Neither is better at the top or with depth.

Top 3:

11.6 BOS, 9.1 TOR, 7.7 NYY (way behind)

#4-6:

5.3 TOR, 4.3 NYY, 3.7 BOS (yes, way behind, but look below)

#7-9:

1.8 BOS in 125 IP, 0.8 NYY in 63 IP, 0.6 TOR in 46 IP