A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

We are going to need much better luck with injuries to have a shot with this 26 man roster as is.

That being said, we lost a ton of games started by our rotation. Our pen stayed pretty healthy, except for key time missed by Slaten.

Our starting 9 actually did not miss a lot of time. The playoff situation was absurd.

Story almost played more games in '25 than his previous 3 seasons combined (157 to 163.)

Duran, Rafaela, Romy, Wong and other subs stayed pretty healthy. Narvaez missed just a little time. Abreu missed a little more. Anthony and Mayer hurt. Casas and Masa missed a lot of time, but their production projection was not all that great to begin with.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

You can’t go start lower than the CBO.

Why did Abreu only get 5 ABs?  Sogard, Refsnyder and Romy. GG outfielder, second on the team in home runs and Hes in the lineup less than the bench bats.  And I don’t want to hear the “Yankees started two lefties.”  Duran started against them and was worse than Abreu vs LHP.  Eaton’s OPS vs LHP didn’t justify a platoon with Abreu either.

It was a bad decision made multiple times…

Abreu doesn't hit vs LHP. Yankees started Fried and Rodon in the Games 1 and 2. Abreu started against Schlittelr and k'd twice with one weak popout to 3b. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1999 Red Sox

Not even close. I was at Fenway for Game 3 of that '99 ALCS when the Sox lambasted Ohmygoodnessgracious Roger Clemens, 13-1. 

After Pedro shut down the Stanks in the top of the 1st, the rocking Red Sox greeted Roger before his Showah with the loudest two at bats I've ever heard in person: Offerman triple, Valentin homer. 

It doesn't matter if Boston outslugged Cleveland in the ALDS to get there, or lost the pennant to three-peat NY; in that one game alone, the Red Sox ripped 21 hits, 4 by AL batting champ Nomar Cherrygarciaparra.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu doesn't hit vs LHP. Yankees started Fried and Rodon in the Games 1 and 2. Abreu started against Schlittelr and k'd twice with one weak popout to 3b. 

Plus he was only 3-21 in Sept after coming back off the injured list, so not much of a mystery why Abreu didn’t play especially against Fried, and Rodon. Also Duran played most of the time, and Abreu didn’t pretty much for the past few years against LHP.

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu doesn't hit vs LHP. Yankees started Fried and Rodon in the Games 1 and 2. Abreu started against Schlittelr and k'd twice with one weak popout to 3b. 

Abreu hit LHP better than Duran and close to Eaton.  
 

Your brief summary of his at-bats more proves my point - that he needed more at bats, especially in that stadium

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Plus he was only 3-21 in Sept after coming back off the injured list, so not much of a mystery why Abreu didn’t play especially against Fried, and Rodon. Also Duran played most of the time, and Abreu didn’t pretty much for the past few years against LHP.

Duran started every game but he was worse vs LHP than Abreu, only hit .233 in September, and doesn’t contribute defensively as well.   It was a bad call by Cora…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Abreu hit LHP better than Duran and close to Eaton.  
 

Your brief summary of his at-bats more proves my point - that he needed more at bats, especially in that stadium

I'm not the one making the lineup cards or the statement of Eaton's abilities to the media. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not even close. I was at Fenway for Game 3 of that '99 ALCS when the Sox lambasted Ohmygoodnessgracious Roger Clemens, 13-1. 

After Pedro shut down the Stanks in the top of the 1st, the rocking Red Sox greeted Roger before his Showah with the loudest two at bats I've ever heard in person: Offerman triple, Valentin homer. 

It doesn't matter if Boston outslugged Cleveland in the ALDS to get there, or lost the pennant to three-peat NY; in that one game alone, the Red Sox ripped 21 hits, 4 by AL batting champ Nomar Cherrygarciaparra.

If it was a best of 3, they wouldn't have advanced past CLE and only scored 3 runs that series. 

[moonslav59]

Word is Cora wants Abreu playing FT in 2026, so not more platoon.

Maybe that was one reason Ref was not brought back. Maybe $7M was too much for JH. Maybe KC is the next RHB OF'er.

It's hard to know who is better or worse vs LHPs: Duran or Abreu. The recency crowd will say Abreu is better. The "last 2-3 year" crowd might say Duran is better. Both are not very good vs lefties.

The issue with using KC as a platoon is that he'd only start 30%, and ride the bench the other games. With Masa and Casas as LHB for DH, Campbell will not start there.

Now, if we trade a LHB OF'er, maybe KC can get enough playing time to be on the 26 and not in AAA working his way to FT status.

I know many here cringe at this idea, but Casas at DH and a Masa-KC platoon in LF might not be too bad. This assumes we trade two OF'ers, which ain't happening. More likely, we platoon Masa & KC at DH, while Casas rides the IL and we trade one OF'er. The 4th OF'er would be a KC/Masa platoon in LF, which is more acceptable.

[Randy Red Sox]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

How we react is our fault.  I know when some rumors are DOA.  I know when I might get A, or I might get B, but I know I'm not getting both.  I know I like players A, B & C, but I know there is some slight chance that the RS FO knows more than I.  I know they have l/t plans on which I am not apprised.  There is some chance that the FO might go under even the first payroll cap in order to reset the cap, and then sign Skubal for $450M/10.

So I don't over-react.

ROTFLAO..  Snowy day in hell before the latter happens but yes we could well go below the first cap.

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is Cora wants Abreu playing FT in 2026, so not more platoon.

Maybe that was one reason Ref was not brought back. Maybe $7M was too much for JH. Maybe KC is the next RHB OF'er.

It's hard to know who is better or worse vs LHPs: Duran or Abreu. The recency crowd will say Abreu is better. The "last 2-3 year" crowd might say Duran is better. Both are not very good vs lefties.

The issue with using KC as a platoon is that he'd only start 30%, and ride the bench the other games. With Masa and Casas as LHB for DH, Campbell will not start there.

Now, if we trade a LHB OF'er, maybe KC can get enough playing time to be on the 26 and not in AAA working his way to FT status.

I know many here cringe at this idea, but Casas at DH and a Masa-KC platoon in LF might not be too bad. This assumes we trade two OF'ers, which ain't happening. More likely, we platoon Masa & KC at DH, while Casas rides the IL and we trade one OF'er. The 4th OF'er would be a KC/Masa platoon in LF, which is more acceptable.

If they don't trade Duran, Abreu will still platoon. 

KC could be a RHB OFer eventually, but it won't be at the start of the year. If he was ready and able, Masa would be out of the picture. There would also be less handwringing about the missing bat. 

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

ROTFLAO..  Snowy day in hell before the latter happens but yes we could well go below the first cap.

Don't see them going below the cap this year. Doesn't make sense to with the current CBA expiring. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If they don't trade Duran, Abreu will still platoon. 

KC could be a RHB OFer eventually, but it won't be at the start of the year. If he was ready and able, Masa would be out of the picture. There would also be less handwringing about the missing bat. 

I don't think they platoon Abreu, and I agree it won't be KC to start the season.

Eaton is devilish vs LHPs (.666.) Abreu can do that and plays GG defense.

I'm not even sure Eaton is on the opening day 26, but if we trade Duran, he might be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If it was a best of 3, they wouldn't have advanced past CLE and only scored 3 runs that series. 

That's funny -- because the Sox only scored 35 runs in Games 4 and 5.

No, seriously.

(I know, I sound like the posters who lauded Boston's TOP FIVE offense all summer -- which reflected totals based on breakfasts of egg-and-cheese omelets once a month, and bowls of Special K all the other days...).

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think they platoon Abreu, and I agree it won't be KC to start the season.

Eaton is devilish vs LHPs (.666.) Abreu can do that and plays GG defense.

I'm not even sure Eaton is on the opening day 26, but if we trade Duran, he might be.

Cora likes Eaton's VERSATILITY so he seems like a lock to me. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not the one making the lineup cards or the statement of Eaton's abilities to the media. 

That’s why I blamed Cora, and not you…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora likes Eaton's VERSATILITY so he seems like a lock to me. 

I think he can be pushed off the roster if the off-season pans out unexpectedly.  But the fact that he hadn’t already been DFAd does indicate he is the current front runner for a bench role…

[notin]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they don't trade Duran, Abreu will still platoon. 

KC could be a RHB OFer eventually, but it won't be at the start of the year. If he was ready and able, Masa would be out of the picture. There would also be less handwringing about the missing bat. 

Campbell would be trade fodder if he didn’t sign that extension.  They’ll want him putting up the gaudiest numbers in AAA possible before they deal him …

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

How does Vientos/Tong make the Sox better? 

• Tong is worth 3 WAR * 6 years.
• Vientos is a tougher call, but was worth 3.1 in 2024, in 413 ABs.  My call would be 2.5 WAR * 4 years.
• Duran is worth roughly 4.6 * 3.

My rough estimate is that Tong + Vientos has excess value of 14 WAR.  In addition, Vientos is a better fit.  If Duran gets pushed to DH, then his offense as a platoon partner to Yoshida is meh.  As a righty, Vientos is more important.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As far as being undermanned, Anthony was injured -- but that's one guy.

For all practical purposes, the RS lineup was without Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Bregman and Abreu.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

For all practical purposes, the RS lineup was without Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Bregman and Abreu.

If this was an argumentative poster, you'd read that Bregman and Abreu were with the line-up, Casas hasn't been a practical part of the batting order since 2023, and Mayer has yet to swing a reliable bat in the majors.

But I'm not a guy even wondering what happened to Duran's game in Sept/Oct, because to me he's always been an elite athlete aspiring to become a consistent MLB ballplayer (I guess they're all craving that, though his talents give him a better shot).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora likes Eaton's VERSATILITY so he seems like a lock to me. 

So, Eaton>Sogard>DHam?

What hurts DHam, besides his long slumps, is his plus D at just 2B.

Sogard looked promising in 2025.

I think Eaton looked okay, for a utilityman, but I'm not really impressed with any of these guys.

Since Campbell is a man who can play no position well, and he needs to be playing everyday, he's not really in the "bench mis," IMO.

Romy may end up starting more than riding the bench, despite being more of a short-side platoon guy.

Wong is assured one of the 4 bench slots.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

you'd read that Bregman and Abreu were with the line-up,

It's why I added 'for all practical purposes'.  Bregman wasn't awful, but not his usual hitting, and Abreu was still hurt.

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That being said, we lost a ton of games started by our rotation.

I've been saying this for a few years.  Crochet, Bello, and Gio were great.  The rest of the rotation produced a 15-26 record with a 5.18 ERA.  With a halfway decent #4-5-6-7-8, we'd have won the division, probably beaten the NYY, and have been favored over TO.

We're better than last year, and accept that many feel we need more offense.  But I'd feel more comfortable with a #2.

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

• Tong is worth 3 WAR * 6 years.
• Vientos is a tougher call, but was worth 3.1 in 2024, in 413 ABs.  My call would be 2.5 WAR * 4 years.
• Duran is worth roughly 4.6 * 3.

My rough estimate is that Tong + Vientos has excess value of 14 WAR.  In addition, Vientos is a better fit.  If Duran gets pushed to DH, then his offense as a platoon partner to Yoshida is meh.  As a righty, Vientos is more important.

Vientos and his career .239 avg excites the hell out of me

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I've been saying this for a few years.  Crochet, Bello, and Gio were great.  The rest of the rotation produced a 15-26 record with a 5.18 ERA.  With a halfway decent #4-5-6-7-8, we'd have won the division, probably beaten the NYY, and have been favored over TO.

Interestingly, one could easily claim Bello and Gio were slotted 4 and 5, if everyone was healthy.

1. Crochet

2. Houck (He was the "ace" of 2024.)

3. Buehler (The highest AAV given to a FA Sp'er since Price.)

4. Giolito

5. Bello

(Crawford was viewed as a possible #4/5, depending on if you viewed him through the '23 lense or the '24 one.)

We'd have done great had our #2 and #3 SP'ers did well. Our 4 & 5 carried us.

Also, Dobbins (11 GS,) Newcomb (5,) Early (4,) Harrison (2,) Criswell (1) and de Leon (1) combined for 24 GS and 117 IP and a decent 3.76 ERA.

This is what killed us:

8.04 Houck (9GS/43.2IP)

5.40 Buehler (22GS/110IP)

7.84 Tolle (3GS/10.1IP)

5.68 May (5GS/25.1IP)

Fitts was not great in 10 GS (4.83 ERA) 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell would be trade fodder if he didn’t sign that extension.  They’ll want him putting up the gaudiest numbers in AAA possible before they deal him …

If he's putting up those types of numbers, he gets called up TBH. Seems unlikely to be traded unless another team is overvaluing him right now.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Vientos and his career .239 avg excites the hell out of me

Aside from hitting the ball hard, it's not a profile the Sox are interested in right now.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Aside from hitting the ball hard, it's not a profile the Sox are interested in right now.

I think Bregman is still plan A, but who knows after that. Mayer is the fallback at 2B-3B if nothing else comes together.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think Bregman is still plan A, but who knows after that. Mayer is the fallback at 2B-3B if nothing else comes together.

Acquire one guy, start Mayer at the other position. That seems like what is going to happen. 

Duran is most likely going to be a Red Sox on Opening Day considering the reports we've heard and I'm fine with it. Either trade him for a haul of prospects or keep him around IMO.